MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 21-13-2 (+184.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 21-13-2 (+184.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 4-1 ATS (+79.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Sunday, November 4
Philadelphia Eagles +3 (50 Units) ***FADING BLIND SHEEP PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Dallas Cowboys are considered to be the third best team in the NFL right now after New England and Indianapolis. To be the third best team in the NFL you have to convincingly win games on PrimeTime TV...something the Cowboys have not always done. All you have to do is looks back on that Monday Night Football game in Buffalo to know that this team definitely does not deserve the status of road favorite in a big game like this one. The Cowboys come into this game with a 6-1 record on the year (should be 5-2 because of the Bills game) and they are 3-0 straight up on the road this season (2-1 ATS in those games). In their first road game of the season the Cowboys beat a hapless Miami team 37-20 as -3.5 point favorites but don't forget that they allowed 20 points to one of the worst offense in the NFL. In their second road game the Cowboys beat the Chicago Bears 34-10 as +3 point road underdogs but now that you look at what the Bears have done, that win is not all that big. Then came the Monday Night Game against a good Bills team and we all know what happened in that one. Dallas has outyarded their opponents big time on the road this season but this is by far their best road opponent yet. The last decent team Dallas played against was New England and they were outyarded by 165 yards in that one. The Cowboys come into this game averaging 25.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done that by averaging 349.7 total yards of offense in those games and 5.7 yards per play. Philadelphia's defense has been outstanding the last three games as they have allowed 14.7 points per game and they have allowed 303.0 total yards of offense per game in those games and allowed 5.3 yards per play. That's some good defense and actually better than the Bills were when they faced Dallas. On the ground, the Cowboys have averaged 100.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and I think if they're smart they'll run a lot more than only 22 times per game like they have in their last three games. I say that because Phiadelphia's only weakness or semi-weakness is against the run as they have allowed 111.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 4.0 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Tony Romo has completed 66.1% of his passes the last three games for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Romo is going to make some plays tonight but he will have to do it against a Phiadelphia defense that has allowed only 59.1% of their passes to be completed the last three games for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The Cowboys offensive line has allowed 5 sacks in their last three games and I expect Romo to feel some pressure tonight as the Eagles have 8 sacks in their last three games. That added pressure could help them force more turnovers as they have only 1 interception the last three games. Dallas has fumbled 5 times in their last three games and the Eagles are pretty much due for a big turnover-forcing game. Dallas is one of the best third down teams in the NFL and they have converted 48.8% of their third down chances in the last three games but Philadelphia has been stingy and allowed their last three opponents to convert 38.1% of their third down chances. The Eagles have also been one of the best Redzone defenses over the last three games holding opponents to 12 Field Goal attempts and allowing opponents to score touchdowns only 20.0% of the time from inside that Redzone. The Eagles defense is going to have a big game tonight and the Cowboys have shown in the past that they don't react well to hostile environments like this one.
The Phiadelphia Eagles are not considered one of the best teams in the NFL this season but I case you could make a case that they deserve TOP 10 status with the way they have played at times. The Eagles are only 3-4 on the season straight up and 3-4 ATS in those games but I am encouraged by some of their performances over the weeks. The Eagles are always a tough beat at home and on PrimeTime TV and they have not lost against Dallas by more than one point at home in who knows how many years. This is a huge game for both teams and I don't think this will be decided by anything more than three points or the Eagles are going to blow these guys out. The Eagles were slow out of the gates as usual this season as they lost their home opener 20-12 against the Washington Redskins as -6.5 home favorites. They followed that up with an impressive 56-21 home win over the Detroit Lions which looks pretty damn good now that the Lions are starting to win football games. In their latest home game the Eagles did not look good against the Chicago Bears as they lost 19-16 as -5.5 point home favorites. That was the only home game the Eagles did not outyard their opponents. Philadelphia is coming off a big road win over the Vikings last week and we all know how much that means now that the Vikings beat the San Diego Chargers convincingly at home this afternoon. The Eagles come into this game averaging only 18.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done that by averaging 377.3 total yards of offense per game in those games for 6.2 yards per play which is 26.6 more yards of offense per game than Dallas in their last three and 0.5 yards per play than Dallas. The Cowboys defense has allowed 28.7 points per game in their last three games but they have done a decent job and allowed only 291.0 total yards of offense per game in those games for 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, the Eagles and RB Brian Westbrook have been running the ball well as they average 112.0 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry in those games and they are going up against a Cowboys defense that has allowed only 95.6 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 3.6 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Donovan McNabb has been pretty damn good over the last three games as he has completed 62.9% of his passes in those games for 7.6 yards per pass attempt and some big time passing plays. The fact that the Cowboys have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete 62.5% of their passes for 6.1 yards per pass attempt which should give McNabb some good options in this one. The only concern for the Eagles is the offensive line as they have allowed 8 sacks in their last three games and the Cowboys have a very good pass rush that has 9 sacks in their last three games. However I trust that Andy Reid is going to compensate tonight and run some simple plays from scrimmage. McNabb has thrown only 1 interception in this last three games and the Cowboys defense has only 1 interception in their last three games, despite all the pass rush pressure. The Eagles have fumbled 0 times in their last three games which is even better news because the Cowboys have forced 6 fumbles in their last three games and are an aggressive defense that goes for the ball strip. The only team better than Dallas on third downs the last three games is Philly who have converted an incredible 51.2% of their conversion chances and are up against a defense that has allowed their last three opponents to convert 38.1% of their third down chances. Advantage Philadelphia in this one. The Redzone offense has been horrendous for the Eagles the last three games and they have settled for too many field goal attempts (12 attempts). That could all change tonight as Dallas has allowed their last three oppnents to score touchdowns 57.1% of the time once in the Redzone. The Eagles are going to have several chances to put points on the board in this game against an overrated Cowboys defense. I like Philadelpha and McNabb to have a huge game and showcase themselves as contenders on National TV.
You know what. A lot of public plays have gone down today and that means Vegas is going to set people up with what looks like an easy line for the game tonight. The Cowboys should be at least -6.5 or -7 in this game but they are -3 and like I predicted, a bunch of blind sheep are on the Cowboys in this game. Well you're all about to get screwed in this game because the line has not moved all week when it should have and like I said before, this is line is setup for you to chase and lose more money tonight. Another X-Factor I always like to point out is the fact that Dallas has taken 7.0 penalties per game in their last three games for 50.3 penalty yards per game in those games while Phialdelphia has taken 5.0 penalties per game in their last three games for 38.7 penalty yards per game. I also want to point out that Dallas could be in trouble when it comes to special teams tonight. In their last three games they have allowed a whopping 27.7 yards per kickoff return and allowed 12.0 yards per punt return which is really dangerous considering that the Eagles average a whopping 15.4 yards per punt return in their last three games and we could see some fireworks tonight. Philadelphia has not been a good ATS team at home the last little while but this is a different story. I think they can match everything Dallas does on offense in this game and I think their defense is going to make bigger plays than the Cowboys. Please keep in mind what Dallas did last time we saw them on a Sunday or Monday night. I am taking the Eagles here with a huge 50 unit play and I don't think this game is going to be close at all.
Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games as an underdog of 0.5 to 3.0 points.
Philadelphia 31, Dallas 13
WEEKLY RECAP
Buffalo +1
New Orleans -3
San Diego -7
NY Jets +3.5
Indianapolis +5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Philadelphia +3 ***FADING BLIND SHEEP PLAY OF THE WEEK***
It's been a very good and profitable day for me in the NFL. I tried using something new and will continue using this strategy into the college football week next week. Good Luck to all tonight.
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 21-13-2 (+184.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 4-1 ATS (+79.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Sunday, November 4
Philadelphia Eagles +3 (50 Units) ***FADING BLIND SHEEP PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Dallas Cowboys are considered to be the third best team in the NFL right now after New England and Indianapolis. To be the third best team in the NFL you have to convincingly win games on PrimeTime TV...something the Cowboys have not always done. All you have to do is looks back on that Monday Night Football game in Buffalo to know that this team definitely does not deserve the status of road favorite in a big game like this one. The Cowboys come into this game with a 6-1 record on the year (should be 5-2 because of the Bills game) and they are 3-0 straight up on the road this season (2-1 ATS in those games). In their first road game of the season the Cowboys beat a hapless Miami team 37-20 as -3.5 point favorites but don't forget that they allowed 20 points to one of the worst offense in the NFL. In their second road game the Cowboys beat the Chicago Bears 34-10 as +3 point road underdogs but now that you look at what the Bears have done, that win is not all that big. Then came the Monday Night Game against a good Bills team and we all know what happened in that one. Dallas has outyarded their opponents big time on the road this season but this is by far their best road opponent yet. The last decent team Dallas played against was New England and they were outyarded by 165 yards in that one. The Cowboys come into this game averaging 25.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done that by averaging 349.7 total yards of offense in those games and 5.7 yards per play. Philadelphia's defense has been outstanding the last three games as they have allowed 14.7 points per game and they have allowed 303.0 total yards of offense per game in those games and allowed 5.3 yards per play. That's some good defense and actually better than the Bills were when they faced Dallas. On the ground, the Cowboys have averaged 100.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and I think if they're smart they'll run a lot more than only 22 times per game like they have in their last three games. I say that because Phiadelphia's only weakness or semi-weakness is against the run as they have allowed 111.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 4.0 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Tony Romo has completed 66.1% of his passes the last three games for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Romo is going to make some plays tonight but he will have to do it against a Phiadelphia defense that has allowed only 59.1% of their passes to be completed the last three games for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The Cowboys offensive line has allowed 5 sacks in their last three games and I expect Romo to feel some pressure tonight as the Eagles have 8 sacks in their last three games. That added pressure could help them force more turnovers as they have only 1 interception the last three games. Dallas has fumbled 5 times in their last three games and the Eagles are pretty much due for a big turnover-forcing game. Dallas is one of the best third down teams in the NFL and they have converted 48.8% of their third down chances in the last three games but Philadelphia has been stingy and allowed their last three opponents to convert 38.1% of their third down chances. The Eagles have also been one of the best Redzone defenses over the last three games holding opponents to 12 Field Goal attempts and allowing opponents to score touchdowns only 20.0% of the time from inside that Redzone. The Eagles defense is going to have a big game tonight and the Cowboys have shown in the past that they don't react well to hostile environments like this one.
The Phiadelphia Eagles are not considered one of the best teams in the NFL this season but I case you could make a case that they deserve TOP 10 status with the way they have played at times. The Eagles are only 3-4 on the season straight up and 3-4 ATS in those games but I am encouraged by some of their performances over the weeks. The Eagles are always a tough beat at home and on PrimeTime TV and they have not lost against Dallas by more than one point at home in who knows how many years. This is a huge game for both teams and I don't think this will be decided by anything more than three points or the Eagles are going to blow these guys out. The Eagles were slow out of the gates as usual this season as they lost their home opener 20-12 against the Washington Redskins as -6.5 home favorites. They followed that up with an impressive 56-21 home win over the Detroit Lions which looks pretty damn good now that the Lions are starting to win football games. In their latest home game the Eagles did not look good against the Chicago Bears as they lost 19-16 as -5.5 point home favorites. That was the only home game the Eagles did not outyard their opponents. Philadelphia is coming off a big road win over the Vikings last week and we all know how much that means now that the Vikings beat the San Diego Chargers convincingly at home this afternoon. The Eagles come into this game averaging only 18.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done that by averaging 377.3 total yards of offense per game in those games for 6.2 yards per play which is 26.6 more yards of offense per game than Dallas in their last three and 0.5 yards per play than Dallas. The Cowboys defense has allowed 28.7 points per game in their last three games but they have done a decent job and allowed only 291.0 total yards of offense per game in those games for 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, the Eagles and RB Brian Westbrook have been running the ball well as they average 112.0 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry in those games and they are going up against a Cowboys defense that has allowed only 95.6 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 3.6 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Donovan McNabb has been pretty damn good over the last three games as he has completed 62.9% of his passes in those games for 7.6 yards per pass attempt and some big time passing plays. The fact that the Cowboys have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete 62.5% of their passes for 6.1 yards per pass attempt which should give McNabb some good options in this one. The only concern for the Eagles is the offensive line as they have allowed 8 sacks in their last three games and the Cowboys have a very good pass rush that has 9 sacks in their last three games. However I trust that Andy Reid is going to compensate tonight and run some simple plays from scrimmage. McNabb has thrown only 1 interception in this last three games and the Cowboys defense has only 1 interception in their last three games, despite all the pass rush pressure. The Eagles have fumbled 0 times in their last three games which is even better news because the Cowboys have forced 6 fumbles in their last three games and are an aggressive defense that goes for the ball strip. The only team better than Dallas on third downs the last three games is Philly who have converted an incredible 51.2% of their conversion chances and are up against a defense that has allowed their last three opponents to convert 38.1% of their third down chances. Advantage Philadelphia in this one. The Redzone offense has been horrendous for the Eagles the last three games and they have settled for too many field goal attempts (12 attempts). That could all change tonight as Dallas has allowed their last three oppnents to score touchdowns 57.1% of the time once in the Redzone. The Eagles are going to have several chances to put points on the board in this game against an overrated Cowboys defense. I like Philadelpha and McNabb to have a huge game and showcase themselves as contenders on National TV.
You know what. A lot of public plays have gone down today and that means Vegas is going to set people up with what looks like an easy line for the game tonight. The Cowboys should be at least -6.5 or -7 in this game but they are -3 and like I predicted, a bunch of blind sheep are on the Cowboys in this game. Well you're all about to get screwed in this game because the line has not moved all week when it should have and like I said before, this is line is setup for you to chase and lose more money tonight. Another X-Factor I always like to point out is the fact that Dallas has taken 7.0 penalties per game in their last three games for 50.3 penalty yards per game in those games while Phialdelphia has taken 5.0 penalties per game in their last three games for 38.7 penalty yards per game. I also want to point out that Dallas could be in trouble when it comes to special teams tonight. In their last three games they have allowed a whopping 27.7 yards per kickoff return and allowed 12.0 yards per punt return which is really dangerous considering that the Eagles average a whopping 15.4 yards per punt return in their last three games and we could see some fireworks tonight. Philadelphia has not been a good ATS team at home the last little while but this is a different story. I think they can match everything Dallas does on offense in this game and I think their defense is going to make bigger plays than the Cowboys. Please keep in mind what Dallas did last time we saw them on a Sunday or Monday night. I am taking the Eagles here with a huge 50 unit play and I don't think this game is going to be close at all.
Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games as an underdog of 0.5 to 3.0 points.
Philadelphia 31, Dallas 13
WEEKLY RECAP
Buffalo +1
New Orleans -3
San Diego -7
NY Jets +3.5
Indianapolis +5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Philadelphia +3 ***FADING BLIND SHEEP PLAY OF THE WEEK***
It's been a very good and profitable day for me in the NFL. I tried using something new and will continue using this strategy into the college football week next week. Good Luck to all tonight.
