MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 8-8-1 (+17.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 8-8-1 (+17.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 2-5 ATS (-18.60 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. I am not going to do much or post that early for the first few weeks until I can get a good feel on how some of the teams are performing and what some of the teams can do. The NFL is nothing like college football and games are always a lot closer than most people think. Don't forget these are not kids trying to make the pros but guys who already have big contracts and who are here for a reason. Enjoy the season of big plays.
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Sunday, October 7
Chicago Bears +3 (50 Units) ***PRIMETIME PLAY OF THE MONTH***
The Chicago Bears have not done much more than show up for games this season but that is about to change tonight. The defending NFC Champions are off to a 1-3 start on the year and they are also 0-4 ATS having not brought home the cash one single time this season. I know the Packers have played this season and a lot of people are calling this the worse possbile matchup for the Bears but at least they have the confidence coming into this game knowing that they have won in this stadium in the past. As a matter of fact, Chicago has won three straight regular season meetings at Lambeau and this could be the boost they have been looking for. The defense has allowed 71 points in their last two games but that has been due to offensive inabilities to hang onto the ball. Those last three games the Bears played at Lambeau were won by a combined 50 points which brings it to an average margin of victory of 16.7 points per game. Well now they are three point underdogs making it only the second time this season they are underdogs. I can't say that they don't deserve this but let's go back about 3-4 weeks and ask ourselves what the line would have been for this game. Chicago comes into this game averaging only 15.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 245.8 total yards of offense and 4.1 yards per play. Green Bay has been pretty damn good on defense allowing 16.5 points per game this season but they have also allowed 338.5 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play which should give the Bears a chance to compete in this one. On the ground, RB Cedric Benson really needs to get things going as the Bears average only 82.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.3 yards per carry. Green Bay has allowed 106.3 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry so once again Benson could have his best game this season and get them some big yardage plays. In the air, QB Brian Griese was a big upgrade from Rex Grossman last week and he has completed 65.4% of his passes this season for 5.5 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He is up against a defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 56.1% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt this season. The Packers have also allowed opponents to convert 41.1% of their third down chances which is not that good. All in all I think the Bears are going to have another good offensive output and if they can do that early in this game, they should have a chance to pull away and let their defense do their thing. Griese is an upgrade on Grossman and the Packers defense has been suspect at times depiste what they have done this season.
The Green Bay Packers have become the new darling in the NFL this season. Everyone already liked Brett Favre before this season started but to see him lead this team to a 4-0 start, which is incredible considering how bad they were last year, and lead them to a perfect 4-0 ATS record, now that's just incredible. The Packers have wins this season over Philadelphia (at home), the Giants (on the road), the Chargers (at home) and most recently the Vikings (on the road). None of those teams have impressed me at all this season with the exception of maybe the Giants but other than that none of those teams had the capabilities of beating the Packers that the Bears have in this game. This is a division rivalry and as we already know, anything can happen when it comes to division rivalries. Like I said earlier, Green Bay has not won at home against Chicago since the 2003 season when they beat them 34-21 and they have since lost their last three against this team. I know Green Bay is a very good team this season but don't you agree that they have played in over their heads a bit and that starting the season 5-0 is almost impossible for anyone in the NFL these days? That does concern me. Green Bay comes into this game averaging a whopping 26.2 points per game this season and they have done that on 343.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play this season. Chicago has been played out of character on defense at times this seeason and are allowing 23.8 points per game but have kept things respectable and allow still only 321.3 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play. That's actually 13 yards better than the Green Bay defense and 0.1 yards per play better. On the ground, Green Bay is averaging only 54.3 rushing yards per game on 2.3 yards per carry this season which makes you wonder how much longer Brett Favre can carry this team alone. Chicago has a stout run defense that allows only 3.4 yards per carry this season on 93.3 rushing yards per game so the Bears are going to be able to focus on the passing attack of the Packers a lot more than they could in previous weeks. QB Brett Favre has completed 65.9% of his passes this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt and 8 touchdowns passes with 2 interceptions this season. The Bears are goign to clamp down on the passing in this game as they have allowed opponents to complete 71.1% of their passes this season and can't possibly get any worse than they have been. They have also allowed 7.4 yards per pass attempt but do have 16 sacks on the season and are going to bring some heavy pressure on Favre in this game. The Packers offensive line has allowed 8 sacks this season which is not too bad but seeing how they don't have a running game, the Bears can afford to pressure Favre from all sides and not allow too many big runs on the ground. Green Bay has converted 44.0%+ of their third down chances this season but the one thing the Bears do well is stop teams on 3rd down chances this season as opponents have converted third downs only 33.9% of the time against this Bears defense. I don't like the Packers discipline this early in the season and penalties could be costly tonight. I think Green Bay is in trouble.
No matter what anyone has seen from either team this season, the Bears are defintiely the play in this divisional matchup. The line is oddly low and a lot of people are most certainly going to jump on the Green Bay train seeing how well they have played this season. Well the Bears don't have a choice but to open things up tonight. Chicago has won three straight games at Lambeau Field and what you really have to keep in mind about this team is that they are still talented on the defensive side of things and more often than not if you have a solid defense, your offense is eventually going to get going and do some big things. The pressure of winning is now gone from this team and the expectations have hit a new low, which is probably good for them in the end. How the hell does a team start the year 4-0 (straight up and ATS) yet average less than 60 rushing yards per game and less than 3.0 yards per carry? Thats pretty much unheard nowadays in the NFL and it tells me that if Brett Favre has any problems, this team is in trouble. The Bears have some real weapons on defense so expect them to really come at the Packers hard in this game. I think their defense is going to make a statement of sorts in tonight's game and I think they hand the Packers their first loss of the season.
Trend of the Game: Green is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games as the favorite.
Chicago 34, Green Bay 13
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 8-8-1 (+17.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 2-5 ATS (-18.60 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. I am not going to do much or post that early for the first few weeks until I can get a good feel on how some of the teams are performing and what some of the teams can do. The NFL is nothing like college football and games are always a lot closer than most people think. Don't forget these are not kids trying to make the pros but guys who already have big contracts and who are here for a reason. Enjoy the season of big plays.
----------------------------------
Sunday, October 7
Chicago Bears +3 (50 Units) ***PRIMETIME PLAY OF THE MONTH***
The Chicago Bears have not done much more than show up for games this season but that is about to change tonight. The defending NFC Champions are off to a 1-3 start on the year and they are also 0-4 ATS having not brought home the cash one single time this season. I know the Packers have played this season and a lot of people are calling this the worse possbile matchup for the Bears but at least they have the confidence coming into this game knowing that they have won in this stadium in the past. As a matter of fact, Chicago has won three straight regular season meetings at Lambeau and this could be the boost they have been looking for. The defense has allowed 71 points in their last two games but that has been due to offensive inabilities to hang onto the ball. Those last three games the Bears played at Lambeau were won by a combined 50 points which brings it to an average margin of victory of 16.7 points per game. Well now they are three point underdogs making it only the second time this season they are underdogs. I can't say that they don't deserve this but let's go back about 3-4 weeks and ask ourselves what the line would have been for this game. Chicago comes into this game averaging only 15.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 245.8 total yards of offense and 4.1 yards per play. Green Bay has been pretty damn good on defense allowing 16.5 points per game this season but they have also allowed 338.5 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play which should give the Bears a chance to compete in this one. On the ground, RB Cedric Benson really needs to get things going as the Bears average only 82.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.3 yards per carry. Green Bay has allowed 106.3 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry so once again Benson could have his best game this season and get them some big yardage plays. In the air, QB Brian Griese was a big upgrade from Rex Grossman last week and he has completed 65.4% of his passes this season for 5.5 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He is up against a defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 56.1% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt this season. The Packers have also allowed opponents to convert 41.1% of their third down chances which is not that good. All in all I think the Bears are going to have another good offensive output and if they can do that early in this game, they should have a chance to pull away and let their defense do their thing. Griese is an upgrade on Grossman and the Packers defense has been suspect at times depiste what they have done this season.
The Green Bay Packers have become the new darling in the NFL this season. Everyone already liked Brett Favre before this season started but to see him lead this team to a 4-0 start, which is incredible considering how bad they were last year, and lead them to a perfect 4-0 ATS record, now that's just incredible. The Packers have wins this season over Philadelphia (at home), the Giants (on the road), the Chargers (at home) and most recently the Vikings (on the road). None of those teams have impressed me at all this season with the exception of maybe the Giants but other than that none of those teams had the capabilities of beating the Packers that the Bears have in this game. This is a division rivalry and as we already know, anything can happen when it comes to division rivalries. Like I said earlier, Green Bay has not won at home against Chicago since the 2003 season when they beat them 34-21 and they have since lost their last three against this team. I know Green Bay is a very good team this season but don't you agree that they have played in over their heads a bit and that starting the season 5-0 is almost impossible for anyone in the NFL these days? That does concern me. Green Bay comes into this game averaging a whopping 26.2 points per game this season and they have done that on 343.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play this season. Chicago has been played out of character on defense at times this seeason and are allowing 23.8 points per game but have kept things respectable and allow still only 321.3 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play. That's actually 13 yards better than the Green Bay defense and 0.1 yards per play better. On the ground, Green Bay is averaging only 54.3 rushing yards per game on 2.3 yards per carry this season which makes you wonder how much longer Brett Favre can carry this team alone. Chicago has a stout run defense that allows only 3.4 yards per carry this season on 93.3 rushing yards per game so the Bears are going to be able to focus on the passing attack of the Packers a lot more than they could in previous weeks. QB Brett Favre has completed 65.9% of his passes this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt and 8 touchdowns passes with 2 interceptions this season. The Bears are goign to clamp down on the passing in this game as they have allowed opponents to complete 71.1% of their passes this season and can't possibly get any worse than they have been. They have also allowed 7.4 yards per pass attempt but do have 16 sacks on the season and are going to bring some heavy pressure on Favre in this game. The Packers offensive line has allowed 8 sacks this season which is not too bad but seeing how they don't have a running game, the Bears can afford to pressure Favre from all sides and not allow too many big runs on the ground. Green Bay has converted 44.0%+ of their third down chances this season but the one thing the Bears do well is stop teams on 3rd down chances this season as opponents have converted third downs only 33.9% of the time against this Bears defense. I don't like the Packers discipline this early in the season and penalties could be costly tonight. I think Green Bay is in trouble.
No matter what anyone has seen from either team this season, the Bears are defintiely the play in this divisional matchup. The line is oddly low and a lot of people are most certainly going to jump on the Green Bay train seeing how well they have played this season. Well the Bears don't have a choice but to open things up tonight. Chicago has won three straight games at Lambeau Field and what you really have to keep in mind about this team is that they are still talented on the defensive side of things and more often than not if you have a solid defense, your offense is eventually going to get going and do some big things. The pressure of winning is now gone from this team and the expectations have hit a new low, which is probably good for them in the end. How the hell does a team start the year 4-0 (straight up and ATS) yet average less than 60 rushing yards per game and less than 3.0 yards per carry? Thats pretty much unheard nowadays in the NFL and it tells me that if Brett Favre has any problems, this team is in trouble. The Bears have some real weapons on defense so expect them to really come at the Packers hard in this game. I think their defense is going to make a statement of sorts in tonight's game and I think they hand the Packers their first loss of the season.
Trend of the Game: Green is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games as the favorite.
Chicago 34, Green Bay 13
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
