MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 43-30-6 (-49.30 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 34-22-4 (+14.00 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-6-2 (-24.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-2-1 (+172.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-1 (-170.00 Units)
*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.
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Sunday, December 3
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 (10 Units)
You really can't tell how well the Seattle Seahawks can play now that their stars are back in the lineup because the win on Monday Night against the Green Bay Packers was played in the snow and well the Green Bay Packers are currently down by 30+ points at home against the New York Jets. So measuring that game is not fair and I have to bet tonight based on what I assume the Seahakws can do as an NFC road team playing against an AFC home team. Seattle is currently 7-4 on the year which is the same record as Denver and which is quite impressive considering that both Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck have been out for most of the year with injuries and this team won with backup QB's and and backup RB's. Anyways, the Seahakws come into this game off that Monday Night monster win over the Packers but if they are going to beat an AFC team on the road, they better play a heck of a lot better than that. The Seahawks have only two road wins all season and this is the same Seattle team that lost to Kansas City and San Francisco on the road the last two months. However, keep in mind that both Hasselbeck and Alexander were out for the most part of those games and now they are back. Seattle is averaging 24.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done it on 322.7 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. The Denver defense is allowing 22.3 points per game in their last three games and have done it by allowing 322.7 total yards per game and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, Seattle is averaging 155.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have done it on 4.9 yards per carry. That's impressive seeing that Alexander played in only two of those games and was held to 37 yards in one of them. Denver is allowing a surprising 4.1 yards per carry in their last three games and the run defense seems to be fading as the season moves along. In the air, QB Matt Hasselbeck will have his hands full because he looked a little shaky last week and now he has to deal with a very good Denver defense. Denver's last three opponent QB's have completed 61.7% of their passes and have averaged a nice 7.1 yards per pass attempt. I am surprised that this defense seems to have given up so easily on their play making ability defensively and I could that cause for concern for anyone who is backing the Broncos based on their defense as of late. Sure they have 3 interceptions the last three weeks but their pass rush hasn't done much to generate additional attention and if Alexander can have success running the ball early, look for Seattle to put up some nice numbers. The Seahawks have been horrendous on third downs lately but Denver defense is allowing 44.7% of third downs to be converted against them and Denver's Red Zone defense has been horrendous the last three games as opponents have scored TD's in there 54.5% of the time. I look for Hasselbeck to once again throw short passes to his receivers and if Alexander can run like he did last game in this game, the fading Denver defense is going to have big problems early in this game.
The Denver Broncos were one of the top teams in the NFL a few weeks ago but there is big time trouble in the Denver camp these days and the sure sign of that is that rookie QB Jay Cutler has been named the starter for a 7-4 Denver team. When was the last time you saw a team that was 7-4 make a QB change mid-season unless it was for injury or something? Mike Shanahan made the move during the week after the Broncos lost yet another game on Thankgiving Thursday. The Broncos have now lost two straight games and have lost three of their last five. I really don't like the situation Jay Cutler is coming into because I would have no problems starting a rookie QB if the team's season was already done and he had nothing to lose. When Tom Brady took over the New England Patriots, the team expected nothing of him and he was a shining star from the getgo. The same can be said about Big Ben and the Steelers, Vince Young and the Titans and Matt Leinart with the Cardinals. Jay Cutler's situation is quite different however and I say that because he is under extreme pressure to come in here right away and make an impact to the point where the team is a lot better with him than they were with Jay Cutler which is a 7-4 team. That's tough no matter who the young QB might be and I don't think Cutler will shine unless he's in a different situation outside of this Broncos madness. Denver has now lost two straight home games to Indianapolis and San Diego and unless they can put something good together, this move by Shanagan is either going to make him or break him as a head coach. The Broncos are averaging 18.0 points per game in their last three games for only 278.0 total yards and 4.8 yards per play. Seattle's defense is once again a lot better defensively than we all think they are and they are allowing 22.0 points per game in their last three games on 341.7 total yards and 5.9 yards per play. On the ground, Denver is going to throw a huge dose of the Bell non-brothers. As much as Shanahan wants to blame Plummer for his poor play, the running game is averaging only 86.3 rushing yards per game the last three games for only 3.4 yards per carry. Seattle's defense is allowing a whopping 140.3 rushing yards per game in the last three but unless Denver's running game can do something special, I don't see Seattle allowing that many on the ground. Even if they do allow the Bells to run for a lot of yards, I won't be concerned because Denver will probably be playing from behind in this game. In the air, QB Jay Cutler played well in the pre-season but I just don't have any reason to believe he can be that much better than Plummer was under the cirumstances that he is being placed in. The Seattle secondary is allowing 6.0 yards per pass attempt the last three weeks and although QB's have completed a lot of passes against them, Cutler is going to be nervous and could make mistakes. The Seahawks have picked off 4 passes the last three weeks and have 7 sacks, so expect Cutler to be pressured. The Broncos are converting only 31.6% of their third downs the last three weeks which is another problem because Mike Holmgren will have a few tricks up his sleeve to keep Cutler on edge when he gets to third downs. I also love the fact that Seattle is allowing their last three opponents to scored touchdowns only 33.3% of the time once inside the Red Zone because holding Denver to FG's tonight is very important. The Broncos have been getting killed on kickoff returns and field position is going to be huge tonight. I think the fact that Seattle has done a better job all season defending the run is going to have an impact as well as the fact that overall, Seattle has allowed less yards per point which makes a big difference against a rookie QB. I like Cutler as a QB, I just don't like the situation he is being placed in right now.
If you ask me, it seems like Mike Shanahan is playing with a fire he can't put out. I mean starting a rookie QB in this type of situation means that the expectations for Cutler are to be better than Plummer was and he is expected to make this team a better team than a 7-4 team. That's too much to ask for from a youngster in my opinion and as much as people want to fade an NFC team playing against an AFC team in this matchup, it's just not the right time to do it. This game has full playoff implications for both teams which should make it intense and I don't think we'll have a blowout on either side of the ball. I just can't put my money on a kid, no matter how good he is, in a situation like this where he is expected to do much more than guys like Vince Young, Tom Brady, Matt Leinart and other kids were expected to do in their first NFL starts. I'll fade Cutler this time around.
Trend of the Game: Denver is 1-5 ATS in their last six as a home favorite.
Seattle 24, Denver 14
:cheers:
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 34-22-4 (+14.00 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-6-2 (-24.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-2-1 (+172.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-1 (-170.00 Units)
*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.
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Sunday, December 3
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 (10 Units)
You really can't tell how well the Seattle Seahawks can play now that their stars are back in the lineup because the win on Monday Night against the Green Bay Packers was played in the snow and well the Green Bay Packers are currently down by 30+ points at home against the New York Jets. So measuring that game is not fair and I have to bet tonight based on what I assume the Seahakws can do as an NFC road team playing against an AFC home team. Seattle is currently 7-4 on the year which is the same record as Denver and which is quite impressive considering that both Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck have been out for most of the year with injuries and this team won with backup QB's and and backup RB's. Anyways, the Seahakws come into this game off that Monday Night monster win over the Packers but if they are going to beat an AFC team on the road, they better play a heck of a lot better than that. The Seahawks have only two road wins all season and this is the same Seattle team that lost to Kansas City and San Francisco on the road the last two months. However, keep in mind that both Hasselbeck and Alexander were out for the most part of those games and now they are back. Seattle is averaging 24.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done it on 322.7 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. The Denver defense is allowing 22.3 points per game in their last three games and have done it by allowing 322.7 total yards per game and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, Seattle is averaging 155.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have done it on 4.9 yards per carry. That's impressive seeing that Alexander played in only two of those games and was held to 37 yards in one of them. Denver is allowing a surprising 4.1 yards per carry in their last three games and the run defense seems to be fading as the season moves along. In the air, QB Matt Hasselbeck will have his hands full because he looked a little shaky last week and now he has to deal with a very good Denver defense. Denver's last three opponent QB's have completed 61.7% of their passes and have averaged a nice 7.1 yards per pass attempt. I am surprised that this defense seems to have given up so easily on their play making ability defensively and I could that cause for concern for anyone who is backing the Broncos based on their defense as of late. Sure they have 3 interceptions the last three weeks but their pass rush hasn't done much to generate additional attention and if Alexander can have success running the ball early, look for Seattle to put up some nice numbers. The Seahawks have been horrendous on third downs lately but Denver defense is allowing 44.7% of third downs to be converted against them and Denver's Red Zone defense has been horrendous the last three games as opponents have scored TD's in there 54.5% of the time. I look for Hasselbeck to once again throw short passes to his receivers and if Alexander can run like he did last game in this game, the fading Denver defense is going to have big problems early in this game.
The Denver Broncos were one of the top teams in the NFL a few weeks ago but there is big time trouble in the Denver camp these days and the sure sign of that is that rookie QB Jay Cutler has been named the starter for a 7-4 Denver team. When was the last time you saw a team that was 7-4 make a QB change mid-season unless it was for injury or something? Mike Shanahan made the move during the week after the Broncos lost yet another game on Thankgiving Thursday. The Broncos have now lost two straight games and have lost three of their last five. I really don't like the situation Jay Cutler is coming into because I would have no problems starting a rookie QB if the team's season was already done and he had nothing to lose. When Tom Brady took over the New England Patriots, the team expected nothing of him and he was a shining star from the getgo. The same can be said about Big Ben and the Steelers, Vince Young and the Titans and Matt Leinart with the Cardinals. Jay Cutler's situation is quite different however and I say that because he is under extreme pressure to come in here right away and make an impact to the point where the team is a lot better with him than they were with Jay Cutler which is a 7-4 team. That's tough no matter who the young QB might be and I don't think Cutler will shine unless he's in a different situation outside of this Broncos madness. Denver has now lost two straight home games to Indianapolis and San Diego and unless they can put something good together, this move by Shanagan is either going to make him or break him as a head coach. The Broncos are averaging 18.0 points per game in their last three games for only 278.0 total yards and 4.8 yards per play. Seattle's defense is once again a lot better defensively than we all think they are and they are allowing 22.0 points per game in their last three games on 341.7 total yards and 5.9 yards per play. On the ground, Denver is going to throw a huge dose of the Bell non-brothers. As much as Shanahan wants to blame Plummer for his poor play, the running game is averaging only 86.3 rushing yards per game the last three games for only 3.4 yards per carry. Seattle's defense is allowing a whopping 140.3 rushing yards per game in the last three but unless Denver's running game can do something special, I don't see Seattle allowing that many on the ground. Even if they do allow the Bells to run for a lot of yards, I won't be concerned because Denver will probably be playing from behind in this game. In the air, QB Jay Cutler played well in the pre-season but I just don't have any reason to believe he can be that much better than Plummer was under the cirumstances that he is being placed in. The Seattle secondary is allowing 6.0 yards per pass attempt the last three weeks and although QB's have completed a lot of passes against them, Cutler is going to be nervous and could make mistakes. The Seahawks have picked off 4 passes the last three weeks and have 7 sacks, so expect Cutler to be pressured. The Broncos are converting only 31.6% of their third downs the last three weeks which is another problem because Mike Holmgren will have a few tricks up his sleeve to keep Cutler on edge when he gets to third downs. I also love the fact that Seattle is allowing their last three opponents to scored touchdowns only 33.3% of the time once inside the Red Zone because holding Denver to FG's tonight is very important. The Broncos have been getting killed on kickoff returns and field position is going to be huge tonight. I think the fact that Seattle has done a better job all season defending the run is going to have an impact as well as the fact that overall, Seattle has allowed less yards per point which makes a big difference against a rookie QB. I like Cutler as a QB, I just don't like the situation he is being placed in right now.
If you ask me, it seems like Mike Shanahan is playing with a fire he can't put out. I mean starting a rookie QB in this type of situation means that the expectations for Cutler are to be better than Plummer was and he is expected to make this team a better team than a 7-4 team. That's too much to ask for from a youngster in my opinion and as much as people want to fade an NFC team playing against an AFC team in this matchup, it's just not the right time to do it. This game has full playoff implications for both teams which should make it intense and I don't think we'll have a blowout on either side of the ball. I just can't put my money on a kid, no matter how good he is, in a situation like this where he is expected to do much more than guys like Vince Young, Tom Brady, Matt Leinart and other kids were expected to do in their first NFL starts. I'll fade Cutler this time around.
Trend of the Game: Denver is 1-5 ATS in their last six as a home favorite.
Seattle 24, Denver 14
:cheers:
