MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 13-11-2 (+30.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 13-11-2 (+30.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. I am not going to do much or post that early for the first few weeks until I can get a good feel on how some of the teams are performing and what some of the teams can do. The NFL is nothing like college football and games are always a lot closer than most people think. Don't forget these are not kids trying to make the pros but guys who already have big contracts and who are here for a reason. Enjoy the season of big plays.
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Sunday, October 21
Denver Broncos +3.5 (100 Units) ***SUNDAY NIGHT PLAY OF THE YEAR***
The Pittsburgh Steelers are no doubt one of the best teams in the NFL nowadays but we all saw what that did for the Dallas Cowboys a few Monday Nights ago against the Buffalo Bills. The Steelers are coming off their BYE WEEK but I have always said that teams coming off their BYE WEEK having to play on the road, are at a disadvantage because they don't get to run they things they practiced as well as they would on home turf. I know the off week was probably a good one for the Steelers but this house is going to be rocking tonight and something tells me the boys in Black and Yellow are going to look rusty in this one. The Steeers looked good in their first road game of the year as they demolished Cleveland (a good looking team) but that was short lived as their next road game saw them lose 21-14 against Arizona as a -5.5 favorite. Well I can tell you right now that Denver is a lot better than Arizona and the line really scares me for people who are betting on the Steelers in this game. Pittsburgh has not won a regular season game in Denver since the 1990
season going 0-3 in their games since. Sure we all remember that playoff game two years ago but that was then and this is now and things have changed since. The Steelers come into this game averaging 26.4 points per game on the season and they have done it on 351.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play. Denver has had its share of problems on defense as they have allowed 27.2 points per game this season on 333.2 total yards of offense per game (which is not that bad) and 5.8 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Pittsburgh and RB Willie Parker have been tearing things up as they average 167.0 rushing yards per game this season and 4.8 yards per carry. That's bad news for Denver who have allowed a whopping 187.6 rushing yards per game this season and 5.2 yards per carry. Well it sounds bad but believe me when I say that Denver has worked on their run defense in the week off and they should be a lot better tonight. That will force QB Ben Roethlisberger to make more plays than he has had to make this season as he has completed 61.8% of his passes for 1013 passing yards, 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. However most of that is because of how effective the running game has been and I don't think it will be that good this time around. Denver's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete 67.0% of their passes against them this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt so its possible that Big Ben has another big game but once again I think the Broncos defense is going to look a lot different having had an entire week off to work on things. Pittsburgh has completed more than 50.0% of their third down conversion chances this season but it has to be known that a lot of that was on home turf and that on the road they have converted only 37.5% of their chances which should be a problem tonight against this revamped Denver defense. Pittsburgh's offensive line has had problems protecting Big Ben on the road as they have allowed 5 sacks in two games while Denver's pass rush has been a lot better at home as they have 7 sacks in three games and should be able to pressure Big Ben enough to force some mistakes. Two of Roethelisberger's three interceptions have come on the road this season and like I said before, I think the Broncos defense has been revamped during the off week and I think they come out and stun the Steelers tonight.
The Denver Broncos have looked like crap at times this season so I don't blame some of you for turning the betting cheek on them and going the other way. However, you cannot look at one or two games this season and decided that a team is finished or that they can't compete in a game like this one. Denver is still 2-3 on the season and despite being 0-5 ATS, still have a very good shot at winning this game against a Pittsburgh team that is getting a bit too much respect in this game. The Broncos looked good against Indianapolis a few weeks back as they had a 14-0 lead against the Colts but could not hold on and completely crumpled on the defensive side of things and it was quite obvious that they were still suffering ill effects from that loss when they came home and lost 41-3 to the Chargers (most lopsided and embarassing home loss in team history). The off week is just what Denver needed to get back on track and I say that because in their last three games they we outyarded by more than 300+ combined yards from those games and uncharacteristically lost the rushing battle in all three games. As embarassing as some of their games were, this is a new week and new chance to show that they are not as bad as people think. Denver comes into this game averaging 15.0 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 365.2 total yards of offense per game this season and 6.2 yards per play. That's better than the Steelers offense in case you haven't noticed despite not scoring as many points per game. Pittsburgh's defense has been good this season as they have allowed only 9.4 points per game and have allowed only 235.6 total yards of offense per game on 4.5 yards per play but they are beatable in this situation. On the ground, RB Travis Henry is going to play tonight and that's a good thing because he has led this team to 138.8 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. The Steelers are not easy to run on as they have allowed only 72.6 rushing yards per game this season and 3.7 yards per carry but teams have attempted less than 20 rushes per game against them and thats not happening tonight as Henry should see the ball 20 times himself. In the air, QB Jay Cutler has completed 64.5% of his passes this season for 1158 passing yards, 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Yeah he has made some bad decisions at times but he is a proven winner. Pittsburgh's pass defense has been very good allowing opposing QB's to complete only 51.5% of their passes this season for 5.0 yards per pass attempt. However, most of that has come off the ability to pass rush effectively to the tune of 3.4 sacks per game (17 sacks in five games) but the Denver Broncos offensive line is pretty damn tough to beat and they have allowed Cutler to be sacked only 6 times in five games this season and that is going to allow the Broncos to do a lot more than people think against this defense. Cutler's problem has been interceptions but the Steelers don't even average one interception per game and have only four interceptions on the season so once again, without an effective pass rush, the Steelers defense is about to be exposed to some degree tonight. One thing Denver has done well is convert third downs as they have converted 47.5% of them on the season. Pittsburgh has allowed a whopping 46.4% of third downs to be converted against them on the road this season and if they do that again tonight, they are going to be in huge trouble. Denver is going to come out swinging tonight and like I said before, they are going to show the world that they can definitely compete with this Steelers team and definitely not be disrespected like the oddsmakers have done this season. Time to get this party started as the Broncos are about to kick some ass.
This game actually reminds me of the Bills game this afternoon (which I attended and bet on the Bills large). You have one team that is overvalued because of the public and should not be sucking so much chalk on the road against a team that is very capable at home having shown two sides of the coin all season. I don't care what you have seen, not liked, blah blah blah from Denver this season. The bottom line is that this is a PRIMETIME TELEVISION game and you know the crowd is going to be rocking. Denver is coming off their BYE WEEK and for those who don't know this, teams coming off the BYE WEEK who play at home right away, almost always have more success than teams coming off the rest week that play on the road. Denver has looked like dogshit at times this season (the Chargers game was bad) but they are not as bad as some of the stats speak and it's a bad idea to bandwagon against them in what should be a statement making game for them tonight. Do you really think the Broncos have moved and forgotten about their 41-3 home loss to San Diego right before the BYE WEEK? That loss has been talked about ever since in Denver and these guys are sick of hearing about it. They are going to come out pounding the ball tonight, making huge plays on defense and supporting their second year quarterback like they have not done this season. Denver is not only covering the points in this game but they are dominating on both sides of the ball and winning SU on the MoneyLine baby! Largest play of the season for me.
Trend of the Game: Denver is 5-0 ATS their last five games coming off a BYE WEEK.
Denver 28, Pittsburgh 7
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 13-11-2 (+30.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. I am not going to do much or post that early for the first few weeks until I can get a good feel on how some of the teams are performing and what some of the teams can do. The NFL is nothing like college football and games are always a lot closer than most people think. Don't forget these are not kids trying to make the pros but guys who already have big contracts and who are here for a reason. Enjoy the season of big plays.
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Sunday, October 21
Denver Broncos +3.5 (100 Units) ***SUNDAY NIGHT PLAY OF THE YEAR***
The Pittsburgh Steelers are no doubt one of the best teams in the NFL nowadays but we all saw what that did for the Dallas Cowboys a few Monday Nights ago against the Buffalo Bills. The Steelers are coming off their BYE WEEK but I have always said that teams coming off their BYE WEEK having to play on the road, are at a disadvantage because they don't get to run they things they practiced as well as they would on home turf. I know the off week was probably a good one for the Steelers but this house is going to be rocking tonight and something tells me the boys in Black and Yellow are going to look rusty in this one. The Steeers looked good in their first road game of the year as they demolished Cleveland (a good looking team) but that was short lived as their next road game saw them lose 21-14 against Arizona as a -5.5 favorite. Well I can tell you right now that Denver is a lot better than Arizona and the line really scares me for people who are betting on the Steelers in this game. Pittsburgh has not won a regular season game in Denver since the 1990
season going 0-3 in their games since. Sure we all remember that playoff game two years ago but that was then and this is now and things have changed since. The Steelers come into this game averaging 26.4 points per game on the season and they have done it on 351.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play. Denver has had its share of problems on defense as they have allowed 27.2 points per game this season on 333.2 total yards of offense per game (which is not that bad) and 5.8 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Pittsburgh and RB Willie Parker have been tearing things up as they average 167.0 rushing yards per game this season and 4.8 yards per carry. That's bad news for Denver who have allowed a whopping 187.6 rushing yards per game this season and 5.2 yards per carry. Well it sounds bad but believe me when I say that Denver has worked on their run defense in the week off and they should be a lot better tonight. That will force QB Ben Roethlisberger to make more plays than he has had to make this season as he has completed 61.8% of his passes for 1013 passing yards, 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. However most of that is because of how effective the running game has been and I don't think it will be that good this time around. Denver's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete 67.0% of their passes against them this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt so its possible that Big Ben has another big game but once again I think the Broncos defense is going to look a lot different having had an entire week off to work on things. Pittsburgh has completed more than 50.0% of their third down conversion chances this season but it has to be known that a lot of that was on home turf and that on the road they have converted only 37.5% of their chances which should be a problem tonight against this revamped Denver defense. Pittsburgh's offensive line has had problems protecting Big Ben on the road as they have allowed 5 sacks in two games while Denver's pass rush has been a lot better at home as they have 7 sacks in three games and should be able to pressure Big Ben enough to force some mistakes. Two of Roethelisberger's three interceptions have come on the road this season and like I said before, I think the Broncos defense has been revamped during the off week and I think they come out and stun the Steelers tonight.
The Denver Broncos have looked like crap at times this season so I don't blame some of you for turning the betting cheek on them and going the other way. However, you cannot look at one or two games this season and decided that a team is finished or that they can't compete in a game like this one. Denver is still 2-3 on the season and despite being 0-5 ATS, still have a very good shot at winning this game against a Pittsburgh team that is getting a bit too much respect in this game. The Broncos looked good against Indianapolis a few weeks back as they had a 14-0 lead against the Colts but could not hold on and completely crumpled on the defensive side of things and it was quite obvious that they were still suffering ill effects from that loss when they came home and lost 41-3 to the Chargers (most lopsided and embarassing home loss in team history). The off week is just what Denver needed to get back on track and I say that because in their last three games they we outyarded by more than 300+ combined yards from those games and uncharacteristically lost the rushing battle in all three games. As embarassing as some of their games were, this is a new week and new chance to show that they are not as bad as people think. Denver comes into this game averaging 15.0 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 365.2 total yards of offense per game this season and 6.2 yards per play. That's better than the Steelers offense in case you haven't noticed despite not scoring as many points per game. Pittsburgh's defense has been good this season as they have allowed only 9.4 points per game and have allowed only 235.6 total yards of offense per game on 4.5 yards per play but they are beatable in this situation. On the ground, RB Travis Henry is going to play tonight and that's a good thing because he has led this team to 138.8 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. The Steelers are not easy to run on as they have allowed only 72.6 rushing yards per game this season and 3.7 yards per carry but teams have attempted less than 20 rushes per game against them and thats not happening tonight as Henry should see the ball 20 times himself. In the air, QB Jay Cutler has completed 64.5% of his passes this season for 1158 passing yards, 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Yeah he has made some bad decisions at times but he is a proven winner. Pittsburgh's pass defense has been very good allowing opposing QB's to complete only 51.5% of their passes this season for 5.0 yards per pass attempt. However, most of that has come off the ability to pass rush effectively to the tune of 3.4 sacks per game (17 sacks in five games) but the Denver Broncos offensive line is pretty damn tough to beat and they have allowed Cutler to be sacked only 6 times in five games this season and that is going to allow the Broncos to do a lot more than people think against this defense. Cutler's problem has been interceptions but the Steelers don't even average one interception per game and have only four interceptions on the season so once again, without an effective pass rush, the Steelers defense is about to be exposed to some degree tonight. One thing Denver has done well is convert third downs as they have converted 47.5% of them on the season. Pittsburgh has allowed a whopping 46.4% of third downs to be converted against them on the road this season and if they do that again tonight, they are going to be in huge trouble. Denver is going to come out swinging tonight and like I said before, they are going to show the world that they can definitely compete with this Steelers team and definitely not be disrespected like the oddsmakers have done this season. Time to get this party started as the Broncos are about to kick some ass.
This game actually reminds me of the Bills game this afternoon (which I attended and bet on the Bills large). You have one team that is overvalued because of the public and should not be sucking so much chalk on the road against a team that is very capable at home having shown two sides of the coin all season. I don't care what you have seen, not liked, blah blah blah from Denver this season. The bottom line is that this is a PRIMETIME TELEVISION game and you know the crowd is going to be rocking. Denver is coming off their BYE WEEK and for those who don't know this, teams coming off the BYE WEEK who play at home right away, almost always have more success than teams coming off the rest week that play on the road. Denver has looked like dogshit at times this season (the Chargers game was bad) but they are not as bad as some of the stats speak and it's a bad idea to bandwagon against them in what should be a statement making game for them tonight. Do you really think the Broncos have moved and forgotten about their 41-3 home loss to San Diego right before the BYE WEEK? That loss has been talked about ever since in Denver and these guys are sick of hearing about it. They are going to come out pounding the ball tonight, making huge plays on defense and supporting their second year quarterback like they have not done this season. Denver is not only covering the points in this game but they are dominating on both sides of the ball and winning SU on the MoneyLine baby! Largest play of the season for me.
Trend of the Game: Denver is 5-0 ATS their last five games coming off a BYE WEEK.
Denver 28, Pittsburgh 7
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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