MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 47-35-6 (-172.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 38-26-4 (-109 .50 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-6-2 (-24.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-2-1 (+172.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-2 (-335.00 Units)
*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.
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Saturday, December 16
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (75 Units)
The Dallas Cowboys under Bill Parcells have become one of the best teams to bet on following a straight up loss. However, there is always a time to cut trends loose and base yourself more on the fundamentals of a specific game. So have some of you lost confidence in the success of Mr. Romo yet? I wouldn't recommend it because he is very well coached but the Cowboys could be starting to fall apart a little bit. I never take what Terrell Owens says seriously but the fact that he is pissed about a 'snitch' in the locker room tells me somewhat that this could be either a) a divided dressing room or b) some internal problems the team has on the inside but that is clearly not present on the outside. Regardless of that, who cares.
Since Tony Romo's takeover as the starting QB, the Dallas Cowboys are 3-1 on the road but let's take a closer look at that 3-1. That's four road games for Romo and only two road games where he led the Cowboys to a win of more than 3.5 points. Teams that can only pass the ball, won't have success at home against the Cowboys. However, teams that can run the ball, have certainly had success against the kid. In his first road start Romo beat Carolina (#21 ranked rushing) by 21 points on the road with a 38:16/21:44 advantage in time of possession. He also beat Arizona (#31 ranked rushing) by 17 on the road with a 32:15/27:45 time of possession advantage. As for the other two games, Romo lost to Washington (#7 ranked rushing) and won by only three points over the Giants (#9 ranked rushing). So when playing against good rushing teams on the road, Romo has yet to win a game by more than 3 points in his career. Seeing that Atlanta is #1 in the NFL when it comes to rushing, my guess is their gameplan of keeping Romo and the offense off the field is going to work to perfection. The Cowboys average 26.0 points per game in their last three games on 382.3 total yards and 6.6 yards per play. Atlanta has allowed only 17.0 points per game in their last three on 360.0 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, the Cowboys average only 115.7 rushing yards in their last three on the road while Atlanta is allowing only 80.3 rushing yards per game in their last three at home. Romo has completed 60.4% of his passes the last three games for 8.2 yards per pass attempt but 4 interceptions to go with it. The Falcons have some injuries in their secondary but I think they can make some big plays here. The Falcons have played well in the Red Zone the last three games so expect them to force the Tuna to go for it on 4th down inside the Red Zone to avoid having to go to Grammatica for a kick.
The Atlanta Falcons are going to treat this like a playoff game and seeing that this is probably the closest they will get to being a playoff team this season, let's hope they can come out swinging. I know you all remember the last time Michael Vick played at home...it was two weeks ago in a big time blowout loss against the Saints and it was then that Vick flipped off the home fans and all the controversy started. Well Vick is still well loved in Atlanta and although there might be a few boos in the early going, it won't take long for Vick and these fans to fall in love all over again when the good starts happening. I know beating Washington and Tampa Bay on the road is not a big deal but a win is a win for teams like Atlanta and the Falcons are certainly going to come home with some big time momentum. They have lost two straight home games and have not given these home fans anything to cheer about since the 41-38 overtime win over the Steelers back on October 22. That's a long time for a team to go winless at home and like I said earlier, it's time for Vick to redeem himself and his team. The Falcons average only 18.0 points per game in their last three games but the Cowboys defense is quickly fading and they have allowed 24.0 points per game in their last three games for 381.0 total yards and 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Vick has not thrown the ball well but the Falcons have rushed for 225.3 yards in their last three on 5.6 yards per carry while Dallas has been torched for 128.7 rushing yards and 4.3 yards per carry in their last three. The Cowboys last three opponents have converted 54.3% of their 3rd down chances against this defense which means that Vick should have an easy time fooling a decent front seven. Now I know both Dunn and Norwood could be out for this game but this might not be a bad thing. This might force Vick to once again be Superman all on his own like the old days. I know it doesn't mean much but Michael Vick has had some of his best passing games ever when playing on a Saturday. It's strange but it's true and I think Vick can have success against Spears and Canty who often get lost and lose QB's who start heading upfield. I say we reunite with the Super Michael Vick in this game.
I will end this writeup by saying this. Tony Romo has had 3 very good games as a starter, 2 mediocre games and 2 very bad games. Let's break those games down a little bit. The very good games or in other words, the games that started all this ROMO HYPE were vs. Washington (2-5 record at the time), vs. Arizona (1-7 record at the time) and vs. Tampa Bay (3-7 record at the time). Those are the only three games where Romo toppled the QB Rating mark of 100 as a starter (9 TD's, 0 interceptions)...all against teams with a losing record. The other four starts for Romo were either so-so or very bad and those were vs. Carolina (4-3 record at the time), vs. (9-0 record at the time), vs. NY Giants (6-5 record at the time) and vs. New Orleans (8-4 record at the time). Romo's QB Rating was 73.3 in those games with 2 touchdowns, 6 interceptions. So the bottome line is that Romo is not a proven starter versus teams with a winning record and sorry to break the news but Atlanta is currently 7-6. Romo is the Cowboys only hope of winning and I think we see a few 'ROMO sucks' or 'Tony Homo' threads after this game is done.
Trend of the Game: Tony Romo has a QB Rating of 73.3 as a starter versus teams with a winning record and has thrown only 2 touchdowns passes with 6 interceptions in those games.
Atlanta 23, Dallas 20
:cheers:
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 38-26-4 (-109 .50 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-6-2 (-24.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-2-1 (+172.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-2 (-335.00 Units)
*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.
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Saturday, December 16
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (75 Units)
The Dallas Cowboys under Bill Parcells have become one of the best teams to bet on following a straight up loss. However, there is always a time to cut trends loose and base yourself more on the fundamentals of a specific game. So have some of you lost confidence in the success of Mr. Romo yet? I wouldn't recommend it because he is very well coached but the Cowboys could be starting to fall apart a little bit. I never take what Terrell Owens says seriously but the fact that he is pissed about a 'snitch' in the locker room tells me somewhat that this could be either a) a divided dressing room or b) some internal problems the team has on the inside but that is clearly not present on the outside. Regardless of that, who cares.
Since Tony Romo's takeover as the starting QB, the Dallas Cowboys are 3-1 on the road but let's take a closer look at that 3-1. That's four road games for Romo and only two road games where he led the Cowboys to a win of more than 3.5 points. Teams that can only pass the ball, won't have success at home against the Cowboys. However, teams that can run the ball, have certainly had success against the kid. In his first road start Romo beat Carolina (#21 ranked rushing) by 21 points on the road with a 38:16/21:44 advantage in time of possession. He also beat Arizona (#31 ranked rushing) by 17 on the road with a 32:15/27:45 time of possession advantage. As for the other two games, Romo lost to Washington (#7 ranked rushing) and won by only three points over the Giants (#9 ranked rushing). So when playing against good rushing teams on the road, Romo has yet to win a game by more than 3 points in his career. Seeing that Atlanta is #1 in the NFL when it comes to rushing, my guess is their gameplan of keeping Romo and the offense off the field is going to work to perfection. The Cowboys average 26.0 points per game in their last three games on 382.3 total yards and 6.6 yards per play. Atlanta has allowed only 17.0 points per game in their last three on 360.0 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, the Cowboys average only 115.7 rushing yards in their last three on the road while Atlanta is allowing only 80.3 rushing yards per game in their last three at home. Romo has completed 60.4% of his passes the last three games for 8.2 yards per pass attempt but 4 interceptions to go with it. The Falcons have some injuries in their secondary but I think they can make some big plays here. The Falcons have played well in the Red Zone the last three games so expect them to force the Tuna to go for it on 4th down inside the Red Zone to avoid having to go to Grammatica for a kick.
The Atlanta Falcons are going to treat this like a playoff game and seeing that this is probably the closest they will get to being a playoff team this season, let's hope they can come out swinging. I know you all remember the last time Michael Vick played at home...it was two weeks ago in a big time blowout loss against the Saints and it was then that Vick flipped off the home fans and all the controversy started. Well Vick is still well loved in Atlanta and although there might be a few boos in the early going, it won't take long for Vick and these fans to fall in love all over again when the good starts happening. I know beating Washington and Tampa Bay on the road is not a big deal but a win is a win for teams like Atlanta and the Falcons are certainly going to come home with some big time momentum. They have lost two straight home games and have not given these home fans anything to cheer about since the 41-38 overtime win over the Steelers back on October 22. That's a long time for a team to go winless at home and like I said earlier, it's time for Vick to redeem himself and his team. The Falcons average only 18.0 points per game in their last three games but the Cowboys defense is quickly fading and they have allowed 24.0 points per game in their last three games for 381.0 total yards and 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Vick has not thrown the ball well but the Falcons have rushed for 225.3 yards in their last three on 5.6 yards per carry while Dallas has been torched for 128.7 rushing yards and 4.3 yards per carry in their last three. The Cowboys last three opponents have converted 54.3% of their 3rd down chances against this defense which means that Vick should have an easy time fooling a decent front seven. Now I know both Dunn and Norwood could be out for this game but this might not be a bad thing. This might force Vick to once again be Superman all on his own like the old days. I know it doesn't mean much but Michael Vick has had some of his best passing games ever when playing on a Saturday. It's strange but it's true and I think Vick can have success against Spears and Canty who often get lost and lose QB's who start heading upfield. I say we reunite with the Super Michael Vick in this game.
I will end this writeup by saying this. Tony Romo has had 3 very good games as a starter, 2 mediocre games and 2 very bad games. Let's break those games down a little bit. The very good games or in other words, the games that started all this ROMO HYPE were vs. Washington (2-5 record at the time), vs. Arizona (1-7 record at the time) and vs. Tampa Bay (3-7 record at the time). Those are the only three games where Romo toppled the QB Rating mark of 100 as a starter (9 TD's, 0 interceptions)...all against teams with a losing record. The other four starts for Romo were either so-so or very bad and those were vs. Carolina (4-3 record at the time), vs. (9-0 record at the time), vs. NY Giants (6-5 record at the time) and vs. New Orleans (8-4 record at the time). Romo's QB Rating was 73.3 in those games with 2 touchdowns, 6 interceptions. So the bottome line is that Romo is not a proven starter versus teams with a winning record and sorry to break the news but Atlanta is currently 7-6. Romo is the Cowboys only hope of winning and I think we see a few 'ROMO sucks' or 'Tony Homo' threads after this game is done.
Trend of the Game: Tony Romo has a QB Rating of 73.3 as a starter versus teams with a winning record and has thrown only 2 touchdowns passes with 6 interceptions in those games.
Atlanta 23, Dallas 20
:cheers:
