MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 33-21-3 (+274.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 33-21-3 (+274.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
NFL Sunday: 3-1 ATS (+30.00 Units)
This Week in CFB: 6-1 ATS (+152.50 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Monday, December 3
Baltimore Ravens +18.5 (10 Units)
The New England Patriots were untouchable when it came to betting on or against them but that was prior to their game against the Indianapolis Colts (first ATS loss of the year). Things have since gone a bit sour for New England spread bettors as the Pats have now dropped two of their last three games ATS and it looks like the pressure of going 16-0 straight up on the season could be getting to them a bit. What I noticed about their two ATS losses this season is that they came nowhere close to outyarding their opponents as they outyarded Philadelphia and Indianapolis by only 32 combined yards. That's quite the contrast compared to their other games where they have outyarded 6 of their last 10 opponents by 100+ yards per game. We all know the Ravens have a half decent defense so what makes it tough to bet on New England in this game is the fact that they have allowed 20+ points in 3 of their last 5 road games and if the Ravens can get things going offensively, the Patriots are going to be in trouble. You also have to consider that as the season gets older, it gets a lot tougher to win games by 40+ points like the Pats had been doing all season and tonight they have to play against a Ravens team that is finally starting to get healthy. With a big game against the Steelers next week (only threat to break the streak), the Patriots could easily be caught looking ahead in this one. The Patriots come into this game averaging 41.5 points per road game this season and in those games they have managed to average 429.7 total yards per game on 6.7 yards per play in those games. The Ravens defense is not what it was the last two or three seasons but they have nonetheless allowed only 18.6 points per home game this season and in those games have allowed 327.6 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Patriots have not been all that effective running the ball as they have rushed for 116.3 rushing yards per road game this season and 3.9 yards per carry. You can expect Baltimore to completely shut that down as the Ravens are one of the best teams at stopping the run and they have allowed only 76.8 rushing yards per home game this season on 2.8 yards per carry. QB Tom Brady is used to having to throw a lot and he has completed an impressive 74.4% of his passes on the road this season for 9.1 yards per pass attempt. He has a QB Rating of 133.5 away from home and has 14 touchdown passes with only 2 interceptions in his last three road games. However, Brady has thrown all 4 of his interceptions this season on the road and the Ravens have 8 interceptions in their five home games this season. Baltimore has allowed visiting opponents to complete only 58.9% of their passes this season for only 6.8 yards per pass attempt which could help contain Brady and his deep ball abilities. The Ravens have 14 sacks in five home games and if they can get enough pressure on Brady (who has been sacked only 6 times this season on the road), they are going to force him into making some mistakes. The Patriots are converting an incredible 61.8% of third down chances on the road this season but Baltimore's defense has a chance in this one as they have held home opponents to a 37.7% third down conversion this season. I have also been very impressed with the Ravens Redzone defense as they have allowed touchdowns to be scored from there only 20.0% of the time at home this season which is the best you can ask for when playing against the most effective Redzone touchdown scoring team in the NFL. I think the Patriots can score some points in this game but if anyone can throw them off rythm and bother them, it's Ray Lewis and his defense. You and me both know that Ray Lewis is going to make this Baltimore's Super Bowl and when he can get his teammates riled up, anything is possible. And I mean anything...so expect the unexpected.
The Baltimore Ravens haven't done jack this shit this season and I don't know about you guys but im still sitting here waiting for them to shock the world with something. Well tonight is their big chance. The Ravens were supposed to be good enought his season to contend for the AFC Championship and to be one of the teams that can compete with both New England and Indianapolis. However, they're season has gone terrible wrong, they have been through everything from injuries to off-field problems and are now 4-7 straight up on the season and nowhere near contending for a playoff spot in the AFC. Even if the Ravens somehow win tonight, they are not going to beat both Indianapolis and Pittsburgh in upcoming weeks so yes their season is said and done with. They have this one game tonight to show that they can still compete and I am pretty sure that all of New England's opponents from here on in are going to give it everything they have to break the streak. One thing you can always count on is a good effort from the Ravens at home as they are 3-2 straight up on the season with wins over Arizona, St. Louis and the New York Jets. Now I know how tough it is to bet on a team that is 1-10 ATS all season but like I said before, several players on the Ravens are embarassed by their showing this season and they want to finish this year off with a bang. Losers of five straight games, the Ravens are looking for their first win since Mid-October and unlike some of the really bad teams in this league, the Ravens have some Pro-Bowl talent. The Ravens come into this game averaging 21.0 points per game at home this season and they have managed to average 314.4 total yards of offense per game on 5.0 yards per play in those games. New England's defense has been super this season and that is in part because their offense is so good and the defense gets to rest so much. They have allowed only 18.7 points per road game this season and in those games have allowed only 288.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. The yards per play is high for the amount of the yards they allow which is why I think they are vulnerable against certain teams. On the ground, the Ravens have a good chance of putting up some big numbers with RB Willis McGahee tonight as New England has allowed 98.3 rushing yards per road game this season but more importantly they have allowed 4.6 yards per carry which means that running all over them is an option early in the game. McGahee has led this team to 100+ rushing yards per home and 3.8 yards per carry and the load is on him to show up early in this one. In the air, QB Kyle Boller has been typical Kyle Boller and he has completed 59.6% of his passes this season for 1242 passing yards, 6.0 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions which is not all that bad when you think about it. New England's pass defense has allowed road opponents to complete 62.2% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt which not as good as the Ravens home defense. The Patriots have quite the pass rush with 16 sacks in six road games this season and the Ravens offensive line has had problems protecting the QB's at home but the gameplan tonight is to punch the ball down the middle and setup some play action. The Patriots have allowed opposing QB's to have an average QB Rating of 76.7 when playing on the road (the Ravens home opponents have an average QB Rating of only 66.8 this season). If you're going to make Baltimore look bad at home this season you better have a knack for forcing fumbles and pouncing on the loose ball as the Ravens have lost 8 fumbles at home this season but the Patriots have recovered only 3 fumbles in six road games this season which just won't cut it. I also have to say that I impressed with Baltimore's third down converions rate at home as they have converted 41.1% of their chances and the Patriots, although pretty good, have not done anything too special on third down defense this season. If the Ravens can somehow effectively move the ball and get inside the Redzone, New England has allowed touchdowns in 69.2% of their opponents trips to the Redzone when playing on the road and I think the Ravens can get some touchdowns instead of field goals in this one. Special teams could be huge tonight as the Ravens have returned punts for 12.1 yards per punt return at home this season and the Pats have been caught sleeping on more than one occasions, allowing 11.0 yards per punt return on the road this season. Baltimore sucks on offense but I think they can play motivated football and feed off their defense to keep this one close.
My gut feeling when the line came out for this game was to take the Patriots because everone was going to be on Baltimore expecting a repeat of what happened last week against Philadelphia (Eagles almost beat the Pats). However, the more I thought about this week, the public is always going to love the Patriots and the line is always going to be blown up by oddsmakers who expect the Patriots to have a nice bounce back performance. One one side you have a team that is 1-10 ATS on the season and on the other side you have a team that pretty much tries to score more points when up by 30 (go for it on fourth down and throw deep to Randy Moss). So it probably doesn't make sense to take Baltimore here but if one guy can lead his team to a huge win, it's Ray Lewis and his motivational ways. Of all the teams left on the Patriots schedule, the Steelers are the only ones people are giving a chance to beat New England so I would have to say that if the Pats lose, it's going to be against someone else. I really don't like Willis McGahee but I think he is going to have a huge night against a Patriots run defense that has been sketchy all season. Tom Brady is facing one of the best and most complex defenses he has seen all season and I don't think he is going to be as effective as we think with the Steelers coming up next week. I will go as far as saying that Baltimore can beat the Patriots and although it might not happen, that's where my money is at tonight!
Trend of the Game: Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in their last seven December games.
Baltimore 21, New England 20
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 33-21-3 (+274.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
NFL Sunday: 3-1 ATS (+30.00 Units)
This Week in CFB: 6-1 ATS (+152.50 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Monday, December 3
Baltimore Ravens +18.5 (10 Units)
The New England Patriots were untouchable when it came to betting on or against them but that was prior to their game against the Indianapolis Colts (first ATS loss of the year). Things have since gone a bit sour for New England spread bettors as the Pats have now dropped two of their last three games ATS and it looks like the pressure of going 16-0 straight up on the season could be getting to them a bit. What I noticed about their two ATS losses this season is that they came nowhere close to outyarding their opponents as they outyarded Philadelphia and Indianapolis by only 32 combined yards. That's quite the contrast compared to their other games where they have outyarded 6 of their last 10 opponents by 100+ yards per game. We all know the Ravens have a half decent defense so what makes it tough to bet on New England in this game is the fact that they have allowed 20+ points in 3 of their last 5 road games and if the Ravens can get things going offensively, the Patriots are going to be in trouble. You also have to consider that as the season gets older, it gets a lot tougher to win games by 40+ points like the Pats had been doing all season and tonight they have to play against a Ravens team that is finally starting to get healthy. With a big game against the Steelers next week (only threat to break the streak), the Patriots could easily be caught looking ahead in this one. The Patriots come into this game averaging 41.5 points per road game this season and in those games they have managed to average 429.7 total yards per game on 6.7 yards per play in those games. The Ravens defense is not what it was the last two or three seasons but they have nonetheless allowed only 18.6 points per home game this season and in those games have allowed 327.6 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Patriots have not been all that effective running the ball as they have rushed for 116.3 rushing yards per road game this season and 3.9 yards per carry. You can expect Baltimore to completely shut that down as the Ravens are one of the best teams at stopping the run and they have allowed only 76.8 rushing yards per home game this season on 2.8 yards per carry. QB Tom Brady is used to having to throw a lot and he has completed an impressive 74.4% of his passes on the road this season for 9.1 yards per pass attempt. He has a QB Rating of 133.5 away from home and has 14 touchdown passes with only 2 interceptions in his last three road games. However, Brady has thrown all 4 of his interceptions this season on the road and the Ravens have 8 interceptions in their five home games this season. Baltimore has allowed visiting opponents to complete only 58.9% of their passes this season for only 6.8 yards per pass attempt which could help contain Brady and his deep ball abilities. The Ravens have 14 sacks in five home games and if they can get enough pressure on Brady (who has been sacked only 6 times this season on the road), they are going to force him into making some mistakes. The Patriots are converting an incredible 61.8% of third down chances on the road this season but Baltimore's defense has a chance in this one as they have held home opponents to a 37.7% third down conversion this season. I have also been very impressed with the Ravens Redzone defense as they have allowed touchdowns to be scored from there only 20.0% of the time at home this season which is the best you can ask for when playing against the most effective Redzone touchdown scoring team in the NFL. I think the Patriots can score some points in this game but if anyone can throw them off rythm and bother them, it's Ray Lewis and his defense. You and me both know that Ray Lewis is going to make this Baltimore's Super Bowl and when he can get his teammates riled up, anything is possible. And I mean anything...so expect the unexpected.
The Baltimore Ravens haven't done jack this shit this season and I don't know about you guys but im still sitting here waiting for them to shock the world with something. Well tonight is their big chance. The Ravens were supposed to be good enought his season to contend for the AFC Championship and to be one of the teams that can compete with both New England and Indianapolis. However, they're season has gone terrible wrong, they have been through everything from injuries to off-field problems and are now 4-7 straight up on the season and nowhere near contending for a playoff spot in the AFC. Even if the Ravens somehow win tonight, they are not going to beat both Indianapolis and Pittsburgh in upcoming weeks so yes their season is said and done with. They have this one game tonight to show that they can still compete and I am pretty sure that all of New England's opponents from here on in are going to give it everything they have to break the streak. One thing you can always count on is a good effort from the Ravens at home as they are 3-2 straight up on the season with wins over Arizona, St. Louis and the New York Jets. Now I know how tough it is to bet on a team that is 1-10 ATS all season but like I said before, several players on the Ravens are embarassed by their showing this season and they want to finish this year off with a bang. Losers of five straight games, the Ravens are looking for their first win since Mid-October and unlike some of the really bad teams in this league, the Ravens have some Pro-Bowl talent. The Ravens come into this game averaging 21.0 points per game at home this season and they have managed to average 314.4 total yards of offense per game on 5.0 yards per play in those games. New England's defense has been super this season and that is in part because their offense is so good and the defense gets to rest so much. They have allowed only 18.7 points per road game this season and in those games have allowed only 288.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. The yards per play is high for the amount of the yards they allow which is why I think they are vulnerable against certain teams. On the ground, the Ravens have a good chance of putting up some big numbers with RB Willis McGahee tonight as New England has allowed 98.3 rushing yards per road game this season but more importantly they have allowed 4.6 yards per carry which means that running all over them is an option early in the game. McGahee has led this team to 100+ rushing yards per home and 3.8 yards per carry and the load is on him to show up early in this one. In the air, QB Kyle Boller has been typical Kyle Boller and he has completed 59.6% of his passes this season for 1242 passing yards, 6.0 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions which is not all that bad when you think about it. New England's pass defense has allowed road opponents to complete 62.2% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt which not as good as the Ravens home defense. The Patriots have quite the pass rush with 16 sacks in six road games this season and the Ravens offensive line has had problems protecting the QB's at home but the gameplan tonight is to punch the ball down the middle and setup some play action. The Patriots have allowed opposing QB's to have an average QB Rating of 76.7 when playing on the road (the Ravens home opponents have an average QB Rating of only 66.8 this season). If you're going to make Baltimore look bad at home this season you better have a knack for forcing fumbles and pouncing on the loose ball as the Ravens have lost 8 fumbles at home this season but the Patriots have recovered only 3 fumbles in six road games this season which just won't cut it. I also have to say that I impressed with Baltimore's third down converions rate at home as they have converted 41.1% of their chances and the Patriots, although pretty good, have not done anything too special on third down defense this season. If the Ravens can somehow effectively move the ball and get inside the Redzone, New England has allowed touchdowns in 69.2% of their opponents trips to the Redzone when playing on the road and I think the Ravens can get some touchdowns instead of field goals in this one. Special teams could be huge tonight as the Ravens have returned punts for 12.1 yards per punt return at home this season and the Pats have been caught sleeping on more than one occasions, allowing 11.0 yards per punt return on the road this season. Baltimore sucks on offense but I think they can play motivated football and feed off their defense to keep this one close.
My gut feeling when the line came out for this game was to take the Patriots because everone was going to be on Baltimore expecting a repeat of what happened last week against Philadelphia (Eagles almost beat the Pats). However, the more I thought about this week, the public is always going to love the Patriots and the line is always going to be blown up by oddsmakers who expect the Patriots to have a nice bounce back performance. One one side you have a team that is 1-10 ATS on the season and on the other side you have a team that pretty much tries to score more points when up by 30 (go for it on fourth down and throw deep to Randy Moss). So it probably doesn't make sense to take Baltimore here but if one guy can lead his team to a huge win, it's Ray Lewis and his motivational ways. Of all the teams left on the Patriots schedule, the Steelers are the only ones people are giving a chance to beat New England so I would have to say that if the Pats lose, it's going to be against someone else. I really don't like Willis McGahee but I think he is going to have a huge night against a Patriots run defense that has been sketchy all season. Tom Brady is facing one of the best and most complex defenses he has seen all season and I don't think he is going to be as effective as we think with the Steelers coming up next week. I will go as far as saying that Baltimore can beat the Patriots and although it might not happen, that's where my money is at tonight!
Trend of the Game: Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in their last seven December games.
Baltimore 21, New England 20
