MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 23-15-3 (+137.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 23-15-3 (+137.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 1-1-1 ATS (-2.50 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Monday, November 12
San Francisco 49ers +9.5 (10 Units)
The San Francisco 49ers were supposed to have a much better and much more competitive team than last year coming into this season and I'm not too sure what happened along the way but they are about the exact same team as they were last season and they are a pathetic 2-6 on the year much like they were last season. However, it's worth noting that after starting last season with that 2-6 record, the Niners reeled off three straight wins against the Vikings, Lions and Seahawks. It's also hard to believe that this San Francisco team started the season 2-0 and that they managed to beat both Arizona and St. Louis in the first two weeks of the season. If you're wondering how bad this team actually is...and they are that bad...look no further than the fact that they have been outyarded by their opponents in every single one of their games this season and four of those games have been by more than 100 yards. However, they have been somewhat competitive in two of their last four games as they lost 9-7 at home to Baltimore and are coming off a 20-16 road loss against the Atlanta Falcons. So what has me betting on these chumps from San Fran? It's hard to tell but I think they can keep this game closer than people think. The Niners come into this game averaging only 13.0 points per game this season and putting points on the board has been their biggest issue. They average only 224.3 total yards of offense per game and only 4.2 yards per play this season which has them dead last in almost all offensive categories in the NFL. Having said that, Seattle's defense is and always has been beatble as they are allowing 17.6 points per game this season on 333.6 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Niners get RB Frank Gore back for this game which is huge after he missed last week. He has led this running attack to 91.5 rushing yards per game but that has come on 4.2 yards per carry and we can expect a heavy dose of Gore tonight. The Seahawks have allowed 102.0 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry this season so there is room for Gore to do some damage. In the air, QB Alex Smith has been anything but impressive as he has completed only 49.7% of his passes this season for 800 yards, 4.8 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. However, things could open up for Smith tonight because a) he was 14 for 25 in Seattle last season for 162 yards and 2 touchdown passes and b) because this is virtually the same Seattle defense as last season and they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 60.1% of their passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The biggest problem for the Niners has been the offensive line as they have allowed 28 sacks in eight games this season and you can bet your bottom dollar the Seahawks are going to come after him as they have 23 sacks in eight games this season. I do like that the Niners have allowed only four sacks the last two games but they'll have to come up with different schemes tonight to protect Smith. San Francisco has been horrendous on third downs this season, converting only 29.7% of them on the season but get to face a Seattle team that has allowed 42.5% of third downs against them to be converted. If the Niners can actually move the chains in this game and get Frank Gore going on the ground, I think Smith can have one of his better games this season. I also like the fact that once the Niners reach the Red Zone, which they rarely do, they have scored touchdowns 46.7% of the time this seaosn which is better than a lot of teams in the NFL. Even if this turns into a field goal fest, I like the Niners to have a much better game than they did the first time out against Seattle and I like Alex Smith to have one of his best outings of the year.
The Seattle Seahawks have quietly found a way to go 4-4 this season but they have lost three of their last four games and have really struggled to get things together in recent weeks. Making it worst tonight is the fact that both SEAN ALEXANDER AND DEION BRANCH are out. The Seahawks opened the season with big wins over Tampa Bay, Cincinnati and these San Francisco 49ers (with their only loss coming to Arizona) but since their win against these Niners, the Seahawks have won only one game and that was against St. Louis two weeks ago. So I guess you could say that the Niners and Seahawks have something in common as in they both played against Arizona and St. Louis this season. Well the Niners won both those games while the Seahawks split them. The impact of losing Alexander and Branch is big because Alexander, although not what he used to be, is the leading rusher on this team and Branch is the second best receiver on this team but definitely this team's top threat to go deep on any given down. Seattle has been good at home this season going 3-1 straight up and 2-2 ATS. They have been favored in all those home games but this is by far by the larges amount. The Seahawks come into this game averaging 20.9 points per game on the season and they have done that by also averaging 338.1 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play in those games. The Niners defense has actually done a very good job considering how ineffective and useless their offense is as they have allowed 23.3 points per game on the season and allowed a very respectable 336.5 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play on the season. On the ground, the Seahawks were averaging only 95.1 rushing yards per game this season on only 3.6 yards per carry and you can imagine how much that is probably going to slow down not that Sean Alexander is not playing. The Niners run defense has been solid all season allowing 127.3 rushing yards per game on only 3.9 yards per carry and the lack of a running threat for Seattle is going to allow the Niners to do more on defense. In the air, QB Matt Hasselbeck has completed 61.8% of his passes this season for 2023 passing yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 13 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. He is going up against a Niners defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 63.8% of their passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The Seahawks offensive line is not that good, much like the Niners, and I think San Francisco can get some pressure on Hasselbeck tonight as they have 13 sacks in eight games this season. The biggest concern for me with this Niners defense is that they just don't force enough turnovers to be efficent and give their offense a shot. They have recovered only 5 fumbles all season and intercepted only 5 passes in eight games this season. However there is hope because Seattle is just as bad as the Niners when it comes to converting third downs this season as they have converted only 34.6% of their chances and have to go up against a Niners defense that has allowed opponents to convert only 42.0% of the time this season. The Seahawks Red Zone offense is worse than the Niners Red Zone offense as they have scored touchdowns only 43.5% of the time once in the Red Zone this season (which is not bad, but not better than the Niners). Seattle has had a lot of success on punt returns this season giving them great field position on several occasions but the Niners punt special teams are outstanding and they have held opponents to only 5.5 yards per punt return this season which could come in handy. I have bet on Seattle many times in the past and not once have I ever had a clean win. Everything they do is sloppy and tonight should be no different. The Niners defense is not as bad as people think, they only look bad because of the offense.
Ummmm not quite. Been there, done that with the Seahawks and never doing it again. I remember I was on them as -10 last year when they hosted the Niners and they ended up losing that game 24-14. So with no Sean Alexander (gametime decision) and no Deion Branch and the same core of guys still playing for the Seahawks, do you really think I am going to drop a single penny on those guys? Cmon now. I know a lot of you are going to look at the first meeting between these teams this season and see that Seattle had an easy time beating these guys 23-3 on their home turf. However, Alex Smith was not the starting QB in that game it was Trent Dilfer and despite not playing well this season, Smith already has a few wins over the Seahawks last season so his confidence should be okay. You also have to consider that Deion Branch, who is out tonight, was responsible for 7 receptions and 130 receiving yards with his longest catch being a 56 yarder. Also out tonight is Sean Alexander who ran for 78 yards in that game so right away you are taking away the core of the Seahawks offense tonight. The UNDER is probably the best way to go but other than that, the Niners should have no problems keeping up in this game as Seattle will continue to struggle on offense and the Niners will be motivated knowing this is a team they have already beat twice in the last year and a half. The whole coach Nolan thing is going to be an inspiration to these guys and I think they can come in here and pulloff the win. When you have two useless teams going up against each other at this time of the year, the underdog is the one and only way to go. Simple handicapping rule of football.
Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 Monday Night games.
San Francisco 13, Seattle 10
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 23-15-3 (+137.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 1-1-1 ATS (-2.50 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Monday, November 12
San Francisco 49ers +9.5 (10 Units)
The San Francisco 49ers were supposed to have a much better and much more competitive team than last year coming into this season and I'm not too sure what happened along the way but they are about the exact same team as they were last season and they are a pathetic 2-6 on the year much like they were last season. However, it's worth noting that after starting last season with that 2-6 record, the Niners reeled off three straight wins against the Vikings, Lions and Seahawks. It's also hard to believe that this San Francisco team started the season 2-0 and that they managed to beat both Arizona and St. Louis in the first two weeks of the season. If you're wondering how bad this team actually is...and they are that bad...look no further than the fact that they have been outyarded by their opponents in every single one of their games this season and four of those games have been by more than 100 yards. However, they have been somewhat competitive in two of their last four games as they lost 9-7 at home to Baltimore and are coming off a 20-16 road loss against the Atlanta Falcons. So what has me betting on these chumps from San Fran? It's hard to tell but I think they can keep this game closer than people think. The Niners come into this game averaging only 13.0 points per game this season and putting points on the board has been their biggest issue. They average only 224.3 total yards of offense per game and only 4.2 yards per play this season which has them dead last in almost all offensive categories in the NFL. Having said that, Seattle's defense is and always has been beatble as they are allowing 17.6 points per game this season on 333.6 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Niners get RB Frank Gore back for this game which is huge after he missed last week. He has led this running attack to 91.5 rushing yards per game but that has come on 4.2 yards per carry and we can expect a heavy dose of Gore tonight. The Seahawks have allowed 102.0 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry this season so there is room for Gore to do some damage. In the air, QB Alex Smith has been anything but impressive as he has completed only 49.7% of his passes this season for 800 yards, 4.8 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. However, things could open up for Smith tonight because a) he was 14 for 25 in Seattle last season for 162 yards and 2 touchdown passes and b) because this is virtually the same Seattle defense as last season and they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 60.1% of their passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The biggest problem for the Niners has been the offensive line as they have allowed 28 sacks in eight games this season and you can bet your bottom dollar the Seahawks are going to come after him as they have 23 sacks in eight games this season. I do like that the Niners have allowed only four sacks the last two games but they'll have to come up with different schemes tonight to protect Smith. San Francisco has been horrendous on third downs this season, converting only 29.7% of them on the season but get to face a Seattle team that has allowed 42.5% of third downs against them to be converted. If the Niners can actually move the chains in this game and get Frank Gore going on the ground, I think Smith can have one of his better games this season. I also like the fact that once the Niners reach the Red Zone, which they rarely do, they have scored touchdowns 46.7% of the time this seaosn which is better than a lot of teams in the NFL. Even if this turns into a field goal fest, I like the Niners to have a much better game than they did the first time out against Seattle and I like Alex Smith to have one of his best outings of the year.
The Seattle Seahawks have quietly found a way to go 4-4 this season but they have lost three of their last four games and have really struggled to get things together in recent weeks. Making it worst tonight is the fact that both SEAN ALEXANDER AND DEION BRANCH are out. The Seahawks opened the season with big wins over Tampa Bay, Cincinnati and these San Francisco 49ers (with their only loss coming to Arizona) but since their win against these Niners, the Seahawks have won only one game and that was against St. Louis two weeks ago. So I guess you could say that the Niners and Seahawks have something in common as in they both played against Arizona and St. Louis this season. Well the Niners won both those games while the Seahawks split them. The impact of losing Alexander and Branch is big because Alexander, although not what he used to be, is the leading rusher on this team and Branch is the second best receiver on this team but definitely this team's top threat to go deep on any given down. Seattle has been good at home this season going 3-1 straight up and 2-2 ATS. They have been favored in all those home games but this is by far by the larges amount. The Seahawks come into this game averaging 20.9 points per game on the season and they have done that by also averaging 338.1 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play in those games. The Niners defense has actually done a very good job considering how ineffective and useless their offense is as they have allowed 23.3 points per game on the season and allowed a very respectable 336.5 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play on the season. On the ground, the Seahawks were averaging only 95.1 rushing yards per game this season on only 3.6 yards per carry and you can imagine how much that is probably going to slow down not that Sean Alexander is not playing. The Niners run defense has been solid all season allowing 127.3 rushing yards per game on only 3.9 yards per carry and the lack of a running threat for Seattle is going to allow the Niners to do more on defense. In the air, QB Matt Hasselbeck has completed 61.8% of his passes this season for 2023 passing yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 13 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. He is going up against a Niners defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 63.8% of their passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The Seahawks offensive line is not that good, much like the Niners, and I think San Francisco can get some pressure on Hasselbeck tonight as they have 13 sacks in eight games this season. The biggest concern for me with this Niners defense is that they just don't force enough turnovers to be efficent and give their offense a shot. They have recovered only 5 fumbles all season and intercepted only 5 passes in eight games this season. However there is hope because Seattle is just as bad as the Niners when it comes to converting third downs this season as they have converted only 34.6% of their chances and have to go up against a Niners defense that has allowed opponents to convert only 42.0% of the time this season. The Seahawks Red Zone offense is worse than the Niners Red Zone offense as they have scored touchdowns only 43.5% of the time once in the Red Zone this season (which is not bad, but not better than the Niners). Seattle has had a lot of success on punt returns this season giving them great field position on several occasions but the Niners punt special teams are outstanding and they have held opponents to only 5.5 yards per punt return this season which could come in handy. I have bet on Seattle many times in the past and not once have I ever had a clean win. Everything they do is sloppy and tonight should be no different. The Niners defense is not as bad as people think, they only look bad because of the offense.
Ummmm not quite. Been there, done that with the Seahawks and never doing it again. I remember I was on them as -10 last year when they hosted the Niners and they ended up losing that game 24-14. So with no Sean Alexander (gametime decision) and no Deion Branch and the same core of guys still playing for the Seahawks, do you really think I am going to drop a single penny on those guys? Cmon now. I know a lot of you are going to look at the first meeting between these teams this season and see that Seattle had an easy time beating these guys 23-3 on their home turf. However, Alex Smith was not the starting QB in that game it was Trent Dilfer and despite not playing well this season, Smith already has a few wins over the Seahawks last season so his confidence should be okay. You also have to consider that Deion Branch, who is out tonight, was responsible for 7 receptions and 130 receiving yards with his longest catch being a 56 yarder. Also out tonight is Sean Alexander who ran for 78 yards in that game so right away you are taking away the core of the Seahawks offense tonight. The UNDER is probably the best way to go but other than that, the Niners should have no problems keeping up in this game as Seattle will continue to struggle on offense and the Niners will be motivated knowing this is a team they have already beat twice in the last year and a half. The whole coach Nolan thing is going to be an inspiration to these guys and I think they can come in here and pulloff the win. When you have two useless teams going up against each other at this time of the year, the underdog is the one and only way to go. Simple handicapping rule of football.
Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 Monday Night games.
San Francisco 13, Seattle 10
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