MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 21-14-2 (+129.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 21-14-2 (+129.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 4-2 ATS (+24.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Monday, November 5
Pittsburgh Steelers -9.5 (10 Units)
The Baltimore Ravens have not played good football this season but somehow they have managed to keep a decent record and stand at 4-3 straight up right now. The Ravens are coming off their BYE WEEK and should be healthy and well rested for this game but I am not impressed at all with their 1-6 ATS record this season and that tells me that the oddsmakers are having a hard time capping this team. What I do know however is that if you like an underdog to cover the spread you better like them to win the game as well and in this series the home team has now won 8 of the last 9 games. Baltimore won both games against Pittsburgh last season by a combined score of 58-7 and I really doubt they could pull the same thing off this season. The Ravens are coming off a road loss against the Buffalo Bills where they allowed their highest point total of the season and lost 19-14 as 3 point road favorites. In their season opening road game the Ravens lost 27-20 against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals and followed that up with a 27-13 road loss in Cleveland. Their only road win came in San Francisco and the final score was 9-7. Despite outyarding their opponents in all four road games, the Ravens are 0-4 ATS on the road in those games and have not turned yards into points. You can play all the defense you want but when your offense is ineffective like the Ravens, opponents are going to take advantage of it. The Ravens come into this game averaging only 15.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done that by averaging 290.3 total yards of offense per game and only 4.4 yards per play in those games. The Steelers defense has been stout as usual and has allowed 14.7 points per game in their last three games and allowed 254.7 total yards of offense per game in those games and only 5.2 yards per play. I would be pretty surprised if the Ravens find the endzone once or at all tonight. On the ground, RB Willis McGahee was effective against the Bills but can he keep it up? The Ravens average only 101.5 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry in their last three games and that is simply not going to get the job done against a Steelers defense that has allowed only 73.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 3.8 yards per carry in those games. That is once again going to put everything in the hands of QB Steve McNair who should be back from his back injury tonight (he has not played in over a month). Rust is defintiely going to be an issue with McNair who has completed 65.6% of his passes for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt this season with 2 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 80.2. The Steelers defense has allowed a lot of pass completions in their last three games as their last three opponents have completed 65.6% of their passes but those passes were for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The Steelers defense has forced three interceptions and 4 fumbles in their last three games and despite not having INT issues this season, if they come after McNair early, im sure they can force him into mistakes he wouldn't usually make if he wasn't coming off a four week layoff. The Steelers have had problems stopping teams on 3rd down as of late allowing their last three opponents to convert 50.0% of their third down chances but that could change tonight as the Ravens have converted only 34.7% of their third down chances the last three games. The Ravens are also one of the worst RedZone teams in the NFL as they have scored touchdowns only 22.0% of the time in the RedZone in their last three games settling for 8 FG attempts instead. That kind of ineffectivness is going to get you nowhere on Primetime TV and despite struggling in their last three games, this Pittsburgh defense should have it's best game in a long time. Baltimore has scored only 14 points per game on the road this season and despite the return of their starting QB, I expect them to keep losing games and keep failing to cover the spread even though this one looks a bit easier than the other ones.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have had a tough time establising themselves as one of the TOP 5 teams in the NFL because of some of their recent performances but let's not get ahead of ourselves and let's just keep an eye on what's in front of us. The problem I have with the Steelers and betting on them this season is that they have had the #30 (out of 32) easiest schedule this season and they really haven't faced any top teams. Believe it or not the Steelers have yet to face a team I ranked in the TOP 16 teams of the NFL this season nor will they get that chance tonight as Baltimore is nowhere near one of the top teams in the league. So that means the Steelers will continue about business against mediocre teams where they have gone 5-2 ATS this season so who the heck can complain? The Steelers were impressive in their road game last weekend as they beat the hapless Cincinnati Bengals 24-13 as four point favorites. The Steelers have been unbeatable at home this season and until a much better team comes in here and plays against these guys, they will continue to lawnmower all their home opponents. In their three home games this season (all three wins and covers ATS), the Steelers have outyarded their opponents by a combined total of 456 yards which is an average of 152 yards per game. OUCH! The Steelers come into this game tonight averaging 24.3 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have averaged 370.3 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. Baltimore's defense has some injury concerns tonight as both Ray Lewis and Chris McCallister are probably out but the Ravens D has still been stout and allowed only 9.7 points per game in their last three games for only 223.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Willie Parker and the Steelers rushing attack has been deadly the last three games as they have averaged 147.3 rushing yards per game in those games for 4.4 yards per carry. Parker won't have an easy time tonight against a Raven defense that has allowed only 73.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for only 2.8 yards per carry in those games but I think it's worth mentioning that they just played against the #26 rushing attack (San Francisco), the #29 rushing attack (St. Louis) and the #19 rushing attack (Buffalo) in those games. Pittsburgh is the #2 rushing attack in the NFL and the Ravens are in for a big surprise in this one. In the air, QB Ben Roethsliberger has completed a whopping 73.5% of his passes the last three games for 8.1 yards per pass attempt in those games. However Baltimore has allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete only 55.3% of their passes for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt but once again that was against some very mediocre passing teams like the Niners and the Rams who both rank in the bottom 5 teams in the NFL in passing. The Ravens pass rush has always been dangerous and the Big Ben has to be ready for dump off passes tonight because his line has had a tough time protecting him in the last three games (8 sacks allowed). Ben also has to be careful where he throws the ball and what kind of decisions he makes because Baltimore has 7 interceptions in their last three games an can be dangerous at all times. Pittsburgh has been one of the most impressive teams on third downs this season as they have converted 63.2% of their third down chances in the last three games. Baltimore has allowed their last three opponents to convert only 28.2% of the time on third down but again I remind you who they played against and none of those teams came close to comparing with the Steelers. What's been most impressive about the Steelers is their 90.9% touchdown converison rate in the RedZone over the last three games which is really important when dealing with such a large spread like this one. The Steelers have been lights out at home all season and unless something changes tonight, they should have no problems getting some revenge on the depleted and down Ravens team. Baltimore's defense is good but they are banged up tonight and they are facing the best offense they have seen since a 27-13 road loss to the Bengals back on September 30. I am calling for another big game from the Steelers in this one.
You either like the Ravens (1-6 ATS and unreliable) or you like the Steelers (5-2 ATS with blowout power). If the Bills we able to score 19 points on this Baltimore defense, you don't think this Pittsburgh offense can do the exact same or even better playing on National TV? The Steelers have been dominant at home and there is no denying that as they have gone 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS at Heinz Field winning all three games by an average of 21.7 points per game. Seeing how the Ravens are in the same category and same ranking level as the three teams Pittsburgh has faced at home this season, I don't see why the results would be any different in this game? I talked earlier about the Steelers having the #30 (out of 32) ranked toughest schedule up to this point in the season but what I failed to mention is that the only two teams with an easier schedule this season are Seattle and BALTIMORE (who are ranked dead last in the NFL). So we have concluded that neither team has played against top opponents this season (which is true) but the Steelers have managed to win games and cover the spread against those mediocre teams while the Ravens have managed to win some games against those teams but cover the spread only once in seven games. I think Pittsburgh continues to dominate these weaker teams at home and the line seems just about right. The Ravens have dominated this series the last two seasons but it's time for the Steelers to turn things around in this one.
Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 6
I lost my big game on the Eagles last night but am pretty confident that I have found a winner in this one. I will be back tomorrow as well with my CFB College Football picks where I hope to finally have a good week and finish the year strong.
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 21-14-2 (+129.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 4-2 ATS (+24.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Monday, November 5
Pittsburgh Steelers -9.5 (10 Units)
The Baltimore Ravens have not played good football this season but somehow they have managed to keep a decent record and stand at 4-3 straight up right now. The Ravens are coming off their BYE WEEK and should be healthy and well rested for this game but I am not impressed at all with their 1-6 ATS record this season and that tells me that the oddsmakers are having a hard time capping this team. What I do know however is that if you like an underdog to cover the spread you better like them to win the game as well and in this series the home team has now won 8 of the last 9 games. Baltimore won both games against Pittsburgh last season by a combined score of 58-7 and I really doubt they could pull the same thing off this season. The Ravens are coming off a road loss against the Buffalo Bills where they allowed their highest point total of the season and lost 19-14 as 3 point road favorites. In their season opening road game the Ravens lost 27-20 against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals and followed that up with a 27-13 road loss in Cleveland. Their only road win came in San Francisco and the final score was 9-7. Despite outyarding their opponents in all four road games, the Ravens are 0-4 ATS on the road in those games and have not turned yards into points. You can play all the defense you want but when your offense is ineffective like the Ravens, opponents are going to take advantage of it. The Ravens come into this game averaging only 15.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done that by averaging 290.3 total yards of offense per game and only 4.4 yards per play in those games. The Steelers defense has been stout as usual and has allowed 14.7 points per game in their last three games and allowed 254.7 total yards of offense per game in those games and only 5.2 yards per play. I would be pretty surprised if the Ravens find the endzone once or at all tonight. On the ground, RB Willis McGahee was effective against the Bills but can he keep it up? The Ravens average only 101.5 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry in their last three games and that is simply not going to get the job done against a Steelers defense that has allowed only 73.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 3.8 yards per carry in those games. That is once again going to put everything in the hands of QB Steve McNair who should be back from his back injury tonight (he has not played in over a month). Rust is defintiely going to be an issue with McNair who has completed 65.6% of his passes for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt this season with 2 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 80.2. The Steelers defense has allowed a lot of pass completions in their last three games as their last three opponents have completed 65.6% of their passes but those passes were for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The Steelers defense has forced three interceptions and 4 fumbles in their last three games and despite not having INT issues this season, if they come after McNair early, im sure they can force him into mistakes he wouldn't usually make if he wasn't coming off a four week layoff. The Steelers have had problems stopping teams on 3rd down as of late allowing their last three opponents to convert 50.0% of their third down chances but that could change tonight as the Ravens have converted only 34.7% of their third down chances the last three games. The Ravens are also one of the worst RedZone teams in the NFL as they have scored touchdowns only 22.0% of the time in the RedZone in their last three games settling for 8 FG attempts instead. That kind of ineffectivness is going to get you nowhere on Primetime TV and despite struggling in their last three games, this Pittsburgh defense should have it's best game in a long time. Baltimore has scored only 14 points per game on the road this season and despite the return of their starting QB, I expect them to keep losing games and keep failing to cover the spread even though this one looks a bit easier than the other ones.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have had a tough time establising themselves as one of the TOP 5 teams in the NFL because of some of their recent performances but let's not get ahead of ourselves and let's just keep an eye on what's in front of us. The problem I have with the Steelers and betting on them this season is that they have had the #30 (out of 32) easiest schedule this season and they really haven't faced any top teams. Believe it or not the Steelers have yet to face a team I ranked in the TOP 16 teams of the NFL this season nor will they get that chance tonight as Baltimore is nowhere near one of the top teams in the league. So that means the Steelers will continue about business against mediocre teams where they have gone 5-2 ATS this season so who the heck can complain? The Steelers were impressive in their road game last weekend as they beat the hapless Cincinnati Bengals 24-13 as four point favorites. The Steelers have been unbeatable at home this season and until a much better team comes in here and plays against these guys, they will continue to lawnmower all their home opponents. In their three home games this season (all three wins and covers ATS), the Steelers have outyarded their opponents by a combined total of 456 yards which is an average of 152 yards per game. OUCH! The Steelers come into this game tonight averaging 24.3 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have averaged 370.3 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. Baltimore's defense has some injury concerns tonight as both Ray Lewis and Chris McCallister are probably out but the Ravens D has still been stout and allowed only 9.7 points per game in their last three games for only 223.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Willie Parker and the Steelers rushing attack has been deadly the last three games as they have averaged 147.3 rushing yards per game in those games for 4.4 yards per carry. Parker won't have an easy time tonight against a Raven defense that has allowed only 73.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for only 2.8 yards per carry in those games but I think it's worth mentioning that they just played against the #26 rushing attack (San Francisco), the #29 rushing attack (St. Louis) and the #19 rushing attack (Buffalo) in those games. Pittsburgh is the #2 rushing attack in the NFL and the Ravens are in for a big surprise in this one. In the air, QB Ben Roethsliberger has completed a whopping 73.5% of his passes the last three games for 8.1 yards per pass attempt in those games. However Baltimore has allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete only 55.3% of their passes for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt but once again that was against some very mediocre passing teams like the Niners and the Rams who both rank in the bottom 5 teams in the NFL in passing. The Ravens pass rush has always been dangerous and the Big Ben has to be ready for dump off passes tonight because his line has had a tough time protecting him in the last three games (8 sacks allowed). Ben also has to be careful where he throws the ball and what kind of decisions he makes because Baltimore has 7 interceptions in their last three games an can be dangerous at all times. Pittsburgh has been one of the most impressive teams on third downs this season as they have converted 63.2% of their third down chances in the last three games. Baltimore has allowed their last three opponents to convert only 28.2% of the time on third down but again I remind you who they played against and none of those teams came close to comparing with the Steelers. What's been most impressive about the Steelers is their 90.9% touchdown converison rate in the RedZone over the last three games which is really important when dealing with such a large spread like this one. The Steelers have been lights out at home all season and unless something changes tonight, they should have no problems getting some revenge on the depleted and down Ravens team. Baltimore's defense is good but they are banged up tonight and they are facing the best offense they have seen since a 27-13 road loss to the Bengals back on September 30. I am calling for another big game from the Steelers in this one.
You either like the Ravens (1-6 ATS and unreliable) or you like the Steelers (5-2 ATS with blowout power). If the Bills we able to score 19 points on this Baltimore defense, you don't think this Pittsburgh offense can do the exact same or even better playing on National TV? The Steelers have been dominant at home and there is no denying that as they have gone 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS at Heinz Field winning all three games by an average of 21.7 points per game. Seeing how the Ravens are in the same category and same ranking level as the three teams Pittsburgh has faced at home this season, I don't see why the results would be any different in this game? I talked earlier about the Steelers having the #30 (out of 32) ranked toughest schedule up to this point in the season but what I failed to mention is that the only two teams with an easier schedule this season are Seattle and BALTIMORE (who are ranked dead last in the NFL). So we have concluded that neither team has played against top opponents this season (which is true) but the Steelers have managed to win games and cover the spread against those mediocre teams while the Ravens have managed to win some games against those teams but cover the spread only once in seven games. I think Pittsburgh continues to dominate these weaker teams at home and the line seems just about right. The Ravens have dominated this series the last two seasons but it's time for the Steelers to turn things around in this one.
Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 6
I lost my big game on the Eagles last night but am pretty confident that I have found a winner in this one. I will be back tomorrow as well with my CFB College Football picks where I hope to finally have a good week and finish the year strong.
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