MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 16-12-2 (+95.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 16-12-2 (+95.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 1-1 ATS (-60.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. I am not going to do much or post that early for the first few weeks until I can get a good feel on how some of the teams are performing and what some of the teams can do. The NFL is nothing like college football and games are always a lot closer than most people think. Don't forget these are not kids trying to make the pros but guys who already have big contracts and who are here for a reason. Enjoy the season of big plays.
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Monday, October 29
Green Bay Packers +3 (10 Units)
The Green Bay Packers are 5-1 on the season and have pretty much opened some big time eyes. Now I know what people are going to argue here. They are going to say that Green Bay hasn't really played against any top teams this season while the Broncos have taken on all the best. Well that is somewhat true because the Packers have the #18 toughest schedule in the NFL so far this season but when challenged by good teams, they have beat them. I call wins against the New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles and San Diego Chargers pretty damn good wins. Only once in their last five games this season have the Packers been outyarded as they badly outyarded the Bears (but lost) and took care of business against the Vikings, Chargers and Giants. The oddsmakers made the mistake of making Green Bay underdogs three times this season and Mr. Monday Nights and his team proved them wrong by going 3-0 ATS and straight up in those games. The Packers have played only two road games this season and those were wins against the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings who are both TOP 20 teams in my opinion. I know it's easy to assume that the Packers are going to lose this week but this is not really a game they have to win but Brett Favre never thinks that way and he still loves the spotlight of a Monday Night Game. The Packers come into this game averaging 20.0 points per game in their last three games as they have also averaged 349.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games. Denver's defense looked a bit better last week against the Steelers but they have still allowed 35.7 points per game in their last three games (thats just awful) and have also allowed 427.3 total yards of offense per game and 7.1 yards per play in those games. No matter how much the Packers have struggled, this shouldn't be too hard tonight. On the ground, RB Deshawn Wynn has done a pretty damn good job this season but the Packers have struggled to move the ball on the ground in their last three games and average only 74.3 rushing yards per game in those games on 3.6 yards per carry. All that is going to change tonight as the Packers and Wynn are up against a Broncos defense that couldn't stop the run if their lives depended on it. Denver has allowed 186.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games for a whopping 5.6 yards per carry. Wynn struggled last week but the Redskins are stout against the run (#9 in the NFL) while Denver is #32 (dead last) in the NFL in rushing yards against. In the air, QB Brett Favre is putting up great numbers as usual and he has completed 65.6% of his passes the last three games for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Even though 4 of his 6 interceptions this season are in the last three games), the Broncos have not been making that many big defensive plays this season so I think he should be just fine. The Broncos pass defense is as bad as it gets as they have allowed their last three QB opponents to complete 71.3% of their passes for a whopping 9.0 yards per pass attempt so look for some Favre bombs tonight. The last three QB's Denver has faced have averaged a QB Rating of 126.7 which is something I have never heard of for a three game span. The biggest knock on Green Bay is the amount of times they have fumbled the last three games. That number is 11 times and they have lost 5 of those fumbles. Well that would be worth noting most of the time but if you look back on how aggressive the Denver defense is, they really aren't all that aggressive having forced only 1 fumble their last three games. Just one. I also have to mention that Brett Favre has made a living in life making big plays on third down and Denver has allowed thier last three opponents to convert 62.5% of their third down chances. WOW! Those same opponents are also scoring touchdowns 80% of the time when entering the Red Zone which is something the Packers have really struggled with, settling for 8 FG attempts in their last three games. Favre should have a much easier time this week than he did the last three weeks and the Packers will no doubt score some points in this one and throw the first punches.
The Denver Broncos were my 100 unit wager last Sunday Night when I took them to beat the Pittsrbugh Steelers straight up. However, that was a one time thing as I bet on a team that has been very good as home underdog and the honeymoon is over between me and those Broncos. Despite playing so well and coming up with the big win, their defense still looked atrocious and their defense almost completely blew the game in the fourth quarter. Believe it or not, the Broncos have been outyarded in four straight games by their opponents and they have been outyarded by a combined total of 369 yards in those games. So far at home this season, the Broncos have allowed more than 20 points in all their games and it would be foolish to think that they can hold the Packers to less than that tonight. So now you have to ask yourself if the Broncos can score at least 20 of their own and come anywhere close to what the Packers offense can do? I think the answer to that is both yes and no. I don't know if you guys are aware of this but RB Travis Henry did not practice once this week and is a game-time decision. RB Mike Bell is still out and probably won't play with the concussion problems he has had. The Broncos come into this game averaging 18.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games they average 324.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play which doesn't sound too bad right? Well Green Bay's defense is a lot better than people think and they have allowed only 19.0 points per game in their last three games and allowed those opponents to average 323.7 total yards of offense per game and only 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, as I mentioned before, both Travis Henry and Mike Bell were held out of practice all week. Henry is the only RB who has carried the ball more than 20 times this season and if he can't go, RB Selvin Young will be the starter. Young has looked good and could be a hidden gem as the Broncos average 128.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry in their last three games. Green Bay is a run tested defense that has allowed only 110.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and allowed only 3.8 yards per carry. That is going to force QB Jay Cutler to throw a lot more than he is usually asked to. Cutler has completed 67.4% of his passes the last three games for 6.8 yards per pass attempt but Green Bay's defense has played well and they have allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete only 56.4% of their passes for only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. WR Javon Walker is out for about four weeks so Cutler is going to have to ask other guys to step up. Although he has been sacked only 4 times in the last three games, Cutler should be worried here because Green Bay has a good pass rush and they have 9 sacks in their last three games so he will be under pressure all night long. I am also concerned with the four interceptions he has thrown the last three games because Green Bay has come playmakers in their secondary and they have picked off three passes the last three games. If you're on Denver, how can you not be worried about the 7 times Denver has fumbled the last three games (losing three of them)? I would be concerned but again, Green Bay has playmakers and the Packers have forced 6 fumbles in their last three games and recovered three of them. Denver and Cutler have been very good on third downs in their last three games as they have converted 56.7% of them but HOLD ON A SECOND! Green Bay has allowed their last three opponents to convert only 25.6% of their third down chances. I like what Green Bay's defense has done and although I think they are going to allow some points in this game, I think they will do just enough and force that key turnover late to put this one in the books as a big 'W' on both the ATS and SU fronts.
This is all about defense, defense, defense. The Packers have a very good one and the Broncos are pretty damn sketchy. You are either taking a team that is 4-1-1 ATS on the season or a team that is 1-5 ATS on the season coming off their first spread cover last weekend. If you think the Broncos are a good team just because they beat the Steelers last week, think again and understand that despite being 3-3 on the season, the Broncos beat the Bills on a last second field goal Week 1 and they needed overtime to beat the Raiders. The strength of schedule angle is a bit misleading in this game and I say that because Denver has had the #1 toughest schedule in the NFL this season and have faced four TOP 10 teams in the process and gone 1-3 in those games. Green Bay has the #18 toughest ranked schedule in the NFL and they have faced three TOP 10 teams along the way but are a perfect 3-0 against to TOP 10 teams. I also have a hard time understanding how anyone can bet on the Broncos not knowing if RB Travis Henry is going to play. He has not practiced all week because of his injury and the last thing the Broncos need is another player out apart from WR Javon Walker. I am telling you guys. Every team that walks into Denver has scored more than 20 points and the Packers are about to do the same. Denver is just too turnover prone to be favored in this game. This is not the week to be a Colorado fan let me tell you and that is emphasized hard tonight with another big loss to the City of Denver. The defense loses this one again.
Trend of the Game: Denver is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as the home favorite.
Green Bay 29, Denver 16
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 16-12-2 (+95.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 1-1 ATS (-60.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. I am not going to do much or post that early for the first few weeks until I can get a good feel on how some of the teams are performing and what some of the teams can do. The NFL is nothing like college football and games are always a lot closer than most people think. Don't forget these are not kids trying to make the pros but guys who already have big contracts and who are here for a reason. Enjoy the season of big plays.
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Monday, October 29
Green Bay Packers +3 (10 Units)
The Green Bay Packers are 5-1 on the season and have pretty much opened some big time eyes. Now I know what people are going to argue here. They are going to say that Green Bay hasn't really played against any top teams this season while the Broncos have taken on all the best. Well that is somewhat true because the Packers have the #18 toughest schedule in the NFL so far this season but when challenged by good teams, they have beat them. I call wins against the New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles and San Diego Chargers pretty damn good wins. Only once in their last five games this season have the Packers been outyarded as they badly outyarded the Bears (but lost) and took care of business against the Vikings, Chargers and Giants. The oddsmakers made the mistake of making Green Bay underdogs three times this season and Mr. Monday Nights and his team proved them wrong by going 3-0 ATS and straight up in those games. The Packers have played only two road games this season and those were wins against the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings who are both TOP 20 teams in my opinion. I know it's easy to assume that the Packers are going to lose this week but this is not really a game they have to win but Brett Favre never thinks that way and he still loves the spotlight of a Monday Night Game. The Packers come into this game averaging 20.0 points per game in their last three games as they have also averaged 349.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games. Denver's defense looked a bit better last week against the Steelers but they have still allowed 35.7 points per game in their last three games (thats just awful) and have also allowed 427.3 total yards of offense per game and 7.1 yards per play in those games. No matter how much the Packers have struggled, this shouldn't be too hard tonight. On the ground, RB Deshawn Wynn has done a pretty damn good job this season but the Packers have struggled to move the ball on the ground in their last three games and average only 74.3 rushing yards per game in those games on 3.6 yards per carry. All that is going to change tonight as the Packers and Wynn are up against a Broncos defense that couldn't stop the run if their lives depended on it. Denver has allowed 186.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games for a whopping 5.6 yards per carry. Wynn struggled last week but the Redskins are stout against the run (#9 in the NFL) while Denver is #32 (dead last) in the NFL in rushing yards against. In the air, QB Brett Favre is putting up great numbers as usual and he has completed 65.6% of his passes the last three games for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Even though 4 of his 6 interceptions this season are in the last three games), the Broncos have not been making that many big defensive plays this season so I think he should be just fine. The Broncos pass defense is as bad as it gets as they have allowed their last three QB opponents to complete 71.3% of their passes for a whopping 9.0 yards per pass attempt so look for some Favre bombs tonight. The last three QB's Denver has faced have averaged a QB Rating of 126.7 which is something I have never heard of for a three game span. The biggest knock on Green Bay is the amount of times they have fumbled the last three games. That number is 11 times and they have lost 5 of those fumbles. Well that would be worth noting most of the time but if you look back on how aggressive the Denver defense is, they really aren't all that aggressive having forced only 1 fumble their last three games. Just one. I also have to mention that Brett Favre has made a living in life making big plays on third down and Denver has allowed thier last three opponents to convert 62.5% of their third down chances. WOW! Those same opponents are also scoring touchdowns 80% of the time when entering the Red Zone which is something the Packers have really struggled with, settling for 8 FG attempts in their last three games. Favre should have a much easier time this week than he did the last three weeks and the Packers will no doubt score some points in this one and throw the first punches.
The Denver Broncos were my 100 unit wager last Sunday Night when I took them to beat the Pittsrbugh Steelers straight up. However, that was a one time thing as I bet on a team that has been very good as home underdog and the honeymoon is over between me and those Broncos. Despite playing so well and coming up with the big win, their defense still looked atrocious and their defense almost completely blew the game in the fourth quarter. Believe it or not, the Broncos have been outyarded in four straight games by their opponents and they have been outyarded by a combined total of 369 yards in those games. So far at home this season, the Broncos have allowed more than 20 points in all their games and it would be foolish to think that they can hold the Packers to less than that tonight. So now you have to ask yourself if the Broncos can score at least 20 of their own and come anywhere close to what the Packers offense can do? I think the answer to that is both yes and no. I don't know if you guys are aware of this but RB Travis Henry did not practice once this week and is a game-time decision. RB Mike Bell is still out and probably won't play with the concussion problems he has had. The Broncos come into this game averaging 18.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games they average 324.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play which doesn't sound too bad right? Well Green Bay's defense is a lot better than people think and they have allowed only 19.0 points per game in their last three games and allowed those opponents to average 323.7 total yards of offense per game and only 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, as I mentioned before, both Travis Henry and Mike Bell were held out of practice all week. Henry is the only RB who has carried the ball more than 20 times this season and if he can't go, RB Selvin Young will be the starter. Young has looked good and could be a hidden gem as the Broncos average 128.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry in their last three games. Green Bay is a run tested defense that has allowed only 110.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and allowed only 3.8 yards per carry. That is going to force QB Jay Cutler to throw a lot more than he is usually asked to. Cutler has completed 67.4% of his passes the last three games for 6.8 yards per pass attempt but Green Bay's defense has played well and they have allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete only 56.4% of their passes for only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. WR Javon Walker is out for about four weeks so Cutler is going to have to ask other guys to step up. Although he has been sacked only 4 times in the last three games, Cutler should be worried here because Green Bay has a good pass rush and they have 9 sacks in their last three games so he will be under pressure all night long. I am also concerned with the four interceptions he has thrown the last three games because Green Bay has come playmakers in their secondary and they have picked off three passes the last three games. If you're on Denver, how can you not be worried about the 7 times Denver has fumbled the last three games (losing three of them)? I would be concerned but again, Green Bay has playmakers and the Packers have forced 6 fumbles in their last three games and recovered three of them. Denver and Cutler have been very good on third downs in their last three games as they have converted 56.7% of them but HOLD ON A SECOND! Green Bay has allowed their last three opponents to convert only 25.6% of their third down chances. I like what Green Bay's defense has done and although I think they are going to allow some points in this game, I think they will do just enough and force that key turnover late to put this one in the books as a big 'W' on both the ATS and SU fronts.
This is all about defense, defense, defense. The Packers have a very good one and the Broncos are pretty damn sketchy. You are either taking a team that is 4-1-1 ATS on the season or a team that is 1-5 ATS on the season coming off their first spread cover last weekend. If you think the Broncos are a good team just because they beat the Steelers last week, think again and understand that despite being 3-3 on the season, the Broncos beat the Bills on a last second field goal Week 1 and they needed overtime to beat the Raiders. The strength of schedule angle is a bit misleading in this game and I say that because Denver has had the #1 toughest schedule in the NFL this season and have faced four TOP 10 teams in the process and gone 1-3 in those games. Green Bay has the #18 toughest ranked schedule in the NFL and they have faced three TOP 10 teams along the way but are a perfect 3-0 against to TOP 10 teams. I also have a hard time understanding how anyone can bet on the Broncos not knowing if RB Travis Henry is going to play. He has not practiced all week because of his injury and the last thing the Broncos need is another player out apart from WR Javon Walker. I am telling you guys. Every team that walks into Denver has scored more than 20 points and the Packers are about to do the same. Denver is just too turnover prone to be favored in this game. This is not the week to be a Colorado fan let me tell you and that is emphasized hard tonight with another big loss to the City of Denver. The defense loses this one again.
Trend of the Game: Denver is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as the home favorite.
Green Bay 29, Denver 16
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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