MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 9-8-1 (+67.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 9-8-1 (+67.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 3-5 ATS (+31.40 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. I am not going to do much or post that early for the first few weeks until I can get a good feel on how some of the teams are performing and what some of the teams can do. The NFL is nothing like college football and games are always a lot closer than most people think. Don't forget these are not kids trying to make the pros but guys who already have big contracts and who are here for a reason. Enjoy the season of big plays.
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Monday, October 8
Buffalo Bills +10 (10 Units)
The Dallas Cowboys have solidified themselves as world championship contenders after only four games but the real test for these guys is going to come next week when they play against New England. Well wtf...what about the Bills game tonight? Have you ever heard of Monday Night Football or what? The Cowboys are 4-0 straight up on the season and an equally impressive 4-0 ATS but their wins have come against the New York Giants (at home while allowing 35 points), the Miami Dolphins (on the road), the Chicago Bears of two weeks ago (on the road) and most recently their 35-7 win over the winless St. Louis Rams. Now I don't consider the Buffalo Bills much better than any of those teams at the naked eye but it's Monday Night guys and every team has to be careful on any given Monday. Now let me ask you this. I know this is a different Cowboys team this season but did you know that they have covered only 10 of their last 34 games as a road favorite? That would me make pretty damn nervous to have them winning by 10+ on the road in a hostile environment like this one so before you place your wagers, please consider what happened to the other 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS team on PrimeTime TV last night. The Cowboys come into this game averaging 37.8 points per game this season and they have done that on 440.8 total yards of offense and a whopping 7.2 yards per play. However they average only 391.5 total yards of offense on the road and 6.3 yards per play. Buffalo has been hampered and battered by injuries but their current unit has now been together for a few weeks and they have allowed only 14.5 points per home game this season on 408.0 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. On paper it looks bad but it's a lot better than on the road. On the ground, the Cowboys average a nice 152.5 rushing yards per game this season with an even more impressive 4.9 yards per carry as Marion Barber has really started to make an impact with his 4 touchdowns and 6.4 yards per carry. Buffalo has allowed 148.0 rushing yards per game this season and 4.9 yards per carry but only 115.5 rushing yards per home and they have been getting better each week which is a good sign. QB Tony Romo has played very well this season but has completed only 59.9% of his passes for 9.9 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. However, with the kind of weather expected tonight in Buffalo, Romo might struggle a bit to get a grip on how things work in this crazy stadium. The Bills have allowed opponents to complete 70.5% of their passes this season at home for 7.5 yards per pass attempt but like I mentioned, with the weather possibly being bad, that can only help the Bills against the long pass. As well as Dallas have played this season they have converted only 33.3% of their third down chances on the road which can't be a good sign coming into this stadium where things are going to get wild. The Bills defense has had it's ups and its downs this season but they have looked a lot more comfortable at home and I would actually be worried if I were Dallas knowing how jacked up they are going to be for tonight's big game.
The Buffalo Bills have absolutely nothing to lose but the football game tonight which is what makes them such a dangerous opponent for the Cowboys. The Bills have now lost 8 opening day starters to the season ending Injured Reserve list which is a big deal yes but at the same time this team has found some new stars who are willing to step up and make some big plays. At 1-3 straight up and 2-2 ATS, the Bills showed signs of life last week as QB Trent Edwards was outstanding in his debut and he gave the team their first win of the year. Let me talk a bit about Edwards. Right before he died, the great Bill Walsh called Bills GM Marv Levy and told him that somewhere down the line, if he was going to make one draft pick, it was going to have to be this kid out of Stanford. Levy obliged and took Edwards in the third round last year. Well does this story remind anyone of the Tom Brady story or maybe the Tony Romo story where a rookie with no expectations whatsoever takes over a ball team because of injury or what not and becomes an instant star? In his debut Edwards completed 22 of 28 passes for 234 yards, 8.4 yards per pass attempt and 1 touchdown. Of the 27 career games QB JP Losman played for the Bills and attempted at least 10 passes, only 2 times did he completed more than 22 passes. WOW! Trend Edwards just brought some new life to this team. The Bills come into this game averaging 15.5 points per home game this season and they have done that on 244.0 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play. Dallas has been good on defense but in their two road games they have allowed 15.0 points per game on 286.5 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. That was against Miami and Chicago. On the ground, don't expect much from rookie sensation RB Marshawn Lynch as the Bills average only 99.0 rushing yards per home game on 3.7 yards per carry while the Cowboys have allowed road opponents to rush for only 68.0 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry. However, expected Edwards to be just as effective as last week passing the ball. The Bills are not a team that has gone deep more than once or twice this season which is good because if Dallas gives up anything in the passing game it's the short pass. The Cowboys road oppoents (Brian Griese and Trent Green) have completed only 52.0% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt but Edwards is a big jump in class on those two guys. Had JP Losman been quarterback in this game, the Bills would be screwed because Dallas has 7 interceptions in two road games. What I really like here though is that Dallas has allowed opponents to convert 45.8% of their third down chances on the road which should give the Bills plenty of chances to keep moving the chains and win this football game with a few big plays. The Bills have two return guys who can really change a game in Terrence McGee and Roscoe Parrish and like I said before, anything can happen on a Monday Night.
As most of you already know I am going to the game tonight and as a Bills season ticket holder, I could not be happier that we finally have another Monday Night game back in Orchard Park. My play on the Bills has absolutely nothing to do with my passion for the team as a fan and despite me being in the audience with full body paint and all holding a sign about Kornheiser sucking balls, I have not been influenced in any way when capping this game. I don't care what has happened to either team so far this season. When a city has not hosted a Monday Night Football game in 15+ years, you better believe they are going to be jacked up for the game. The atmosphere right now in Orchard Park is unreal as ESPN rolled in on Friday and bought an entire parking lot for their people to park and party. The forecast for tonight is 30-40% chance of thunder showers by 8:00pm (Gametime) so we could be in for a wet, cool and hazy night in Buffalo. The big difference in this one could come down to penalties. Dallas has taken 23 penalties in two road games this season while the Bills have taken only 10 penalties in their two home games. With this kind of crowd and this kind of atmosphere, I think the Bills come out and surprise everyone in attendance and possibly send the crowd into a frenzy with their first big win in ages. Trent Edwards is my X-Factor for this game because if plays as well as he did last week, he will be an instant star in this league and that happened ironically to the guy on the other sideline Tony Romo as well as the Pats Tom Brady. Dallas' defense has not been as good as people think on the road and I think the Bills show the world that they are not done.
Trend of the Game: Dallas is 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 road games as a favorite.
Buffalo 24, Dallas 23
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 9-8-1 (+67.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 3-5 ATS (+31.40 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. I am not going to do much or post that early for the first few weeks until I can get a good feel on how some of the teams are performing and what some of the teams can do. The NFL is nothing like college football and games are always a lot closer than most people think. Don't forget these are not kids trying to make the pros but guys who already have big contracts and who are here for a reason. Enjoy the season of big plays.
----------------------------------
Monday, October 8
Buffalo Bills +10 (10 Units)
The Dallas Cowboys have solidified themselves as world championship contenders after only four games but the real test for these guys is going to come next week when they play against New England. Well wtf...what about the Bills game tonight? Have you ever heard of Monday Night Football or what? The Cowboys are 4-0 straight up on the season and an equally impressive 4-0 ATS but their wins have come against the New York Giants (at home while allowing 35 points), the Miami Dolphins (on the road), the Chicago Bears of two weeks ago (on the road) and most recently their 35-7 win over the winless St. Louis Rams. Now I don't consider the Buffalo Bills much better than any of those teams at the naked eye but it's Monday Night guys and every team has to be careful on any given Monday. Now let me ask you this. I know this is a different Cowboys team this season but did you know that they have covered only 10 of their last 34 games as a road favorite? That would me make pretty damn nervous to have them winning by 10+ on the road in a hostile environment like this one so before you place your wagers, please consider what happened to the other 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS team on PrimeTime TV last night. The Cowboys come into this game averaging 37.8 points per game this season and they have done that on 440.8 total yards of offense and a whopping 7.2 yards per play. However they average only 391.5 total yards of offense on the road and 6.3 yards per play. Buffalo has been hampered and battered by injuries but their current unit has now been together for a few weeks and they have allowed only 14.5 points per home game this season on 408.0 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. On paper it looks bad but it's a lot better than on the road. On the ground, the Cowboys average a nice 152.5 rushing yards per game this season with an even more impressive 4.9 yards per carry as Marion Barber has really started to make an impact with his 4 touchdowns and 6.4 yards per carry. Buffalo has allowed 148.0 rushing yards per game this season and 4.9 yards per carry but only 115.5 rushing yards per home and they have been getting better each week which is a good sign. QB Tony Romo has played very well this season but has completed only 59.9% of his passes for 9.9 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. However, with the kind of weather expected tonight in Buffalo, Romo might struggle a bit to get a grip on how things work in this crazy stadium. The Bills have allowed opponents to complete 70.5% of their passes this season at home for 7.5 yards per pass attempt but like I mentioned, with the weather possibly being bad, that can only help the Bills against the long pass. As well as Dallas have played this season they have converted only 33.3% of their third down chances on the road which can't be a good sign coming into this stadium where things are going to get wild. The Bills defense has had it's ups and its downs this season but they have looked a lot more comfortable at home and I would actually be worried if I were Dallas knowing how jacked up they are going to be for tonight's big game.
The Buffalo Bills have absolutely nothing to lose but the football game tonight which is what makes them such a dangerous opponent for the Cowboys. The Bills have now lost 8 opening day starters to the season ending Injured Reserve list which is a big deal yes but at the same time this team has found some new stars who are willing to step up and make some big plays. At 1-3 straight up and 2-2 ATS, the Bills showed signs of life last week as QB Trent Edwards was outstanding in his debut and he gave the team their first win of the year. Let me talk a bit about Edwards. Right before he died, the great Bill Walsh called Bills GM Marv Levy and told him that somewhere down the line, if he was going to make one draft pick, it was going to have to be this kid out of Stanford. Levy obliged and took Edwards in the third round last year. Well does this story remind anyone of the Tom Brady story or maybe the Tony Romo story where a rookie with no expectations whatsoever takes over a ball team because of injury or what not and becomes an instant star? In his debut Edwards completed 22 of 28 passes for 234 yards, 8.4 yards per pass attempt and 1 touchdown. Of the 27 career games QB JP Losman played for the Bills and attempted at least 10 passes, only 2 times did he completed more than 22 passes. WOW! Trend Edwards just brought some new life to this team. The Bills come into this game averaging 15.5 points per home game this season and they have done that on 244.0 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play. Dallas has been good on defense but in their two road games they have allowed 15.0 points per game on 286.5 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. That was against Miami and Chicago. On the ground, don't expect much from rookie sensation RB Marshawn Lynch as the Bills average only 99.0 rushing yards per home game on 3.7 yards per carry while the Cowboys have allowed road opponents to rush for only 68.0 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry. However, expected Edwards to be just as effective as last week passing the ball. The Bills are not a team that has gone deep more than once or twice this season which is good because if Dallas gives up anything in the passing game it's the short pass. The Cowboys road oppoents (Brian Griese and Trent Green) have completed only 52.0% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt but Edwards is a big jump in class on those two guys. Had JP Losman been quarterback in this game, the Bills would be screwed because Dallas has 7 interceptions in two road games. What I really like here though is that Dallas has allowed opponents to convert 45.8% of their third down chances on the road which should give the Bills plenty of chances to keep moving the chains and win this football game with a few big plays. The Bills have two return guys who can really change a game in Terrence McGee and Roscoe Parrish and like I said before, anything can happen on a Monday Night.
As most of you already know I am going to the game tonight and as a Bills season ticket holder, I could not be happier that we finally have another Monday Night game back in Orchard Park. My play on the Bills has absolutely nothing to do with my passion for the team as a fan and despite me being in the audience with full body paint and all holding a sign about Kornheiser sucking balls, I have not been influenced in any way when capping this game. I don't care what has happened to either team so far this season. When a city has not hosted a Monday Night Football game in 15+ years, you better believe they are going to be jacked up for the game. The atmosphere right now in Orchard Park is unreal as ESPN rolled in on Friday and bought an entire parking lot for their people to park and party. The forecast for tonight is 30-40% chance of thunder showers by 8:00pm (Gametime) so we could be in for a wet, cool and hazy night in Buffalo. The big difference in this one could come down to penalties. Dallas has taken 23 penalties in two road games this season while the Bills have taken only 10 penalties in their two home games. With this kind of crowd and this kind of atmosphere, I think the Bills come out and surprise everyone in attendance and possibly send the crowd into a frenzy with their first big win in ages. Trent Edwards is my X-Factor for this game because if plays as well as he did last week, he will be an instant star in this league and that happened ironically to the guy on the other sideline Tony Romo as well as the Pats Tom Brady. Dallas' defense has not been as good as people think on the road and I think the Bills show the world that they are not done.
Trend of the Game: Dallas is 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 road games as a favorite.
Buffalo 24, Dallas 23
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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