MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 31-17-5 (+23.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 22-12-3 (+21.10 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-5-2 (+2.70 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 5-1-1 (+14.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
35-13-2 (73%) ATS in Football the last two weeks
*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.
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Monday, October 23
Dallas Cowboys -3 (5 Units)
The New York Football Giants roll into Dallas for what some are calling the best Monday Nighter we have had so far this year. I tend to agree but betting wise this is a nightmare and I would rather we have a boring game where the line would be off and all the squares would jump on the same side so we can fade them. Not the case here. The Giants come into this game with a 3-2 record on the season (Dallas has the same record) and this game is for sole controle of the NFC East Division lead. The Giants are coming off a huge 27-14 win in Atlanta last week which was impressive to say the least. Combine that with their comeback win in Philadelphia earlier in the season and the Giants have looked like one of the most dangerous road teams in the league. However, don't you go forgetting the Giants and their big blowout loss in Seattle in late September. I mean Sean Alexander ran for only 40 some yards in that game and the Seahawks still won 42-30 against what I like to think is a very suspect NY Giants defense. Now you look at the other two teams they have beat on the road (Philadelphia and Atlanta) and you realize that those are not two of the elite teams in the NFL this season. The Dallas Cowboys are getting there. The Giants are averaging a nice 29.0 points per road game this season on 388.3 total yards of offense and 6.2 yards per play. However, the Cowboys defense is one of the best they will see all year and they are allowing only 8.0 points in two home games (albeit against Washington and Houston but still) and only 238.5 total yards per game on 4.4 yards per play at home. Impressive. On the ground, RB Tiki Barber has been the center of attention all week but did you guys know that in 17 career games versus Dallas, Tiki is averaging only 64.7 rushing yards per game with only 4 TD's? Did you also know that Barber sucks on Monday Nights? He is averaging only 45.1 rushing yards per game in 11 Monday Night games in his career with only 2 touchdowns? Wow. The Giants rely heavily on the success of their running attack averaging 139.3 rushing yards per road game on 5.3 yards per carry. Problem there is that Dallas is allowing only 63.5 rushing yards per home game on 3.4 yards per carry. In other words, forget about Tiki tonight. In the air, QB Eli Manning is good but he makes mistakes. Manning is completing 66.0% of his passes on the road for 6.9 yards per pass attempt but he has been sacked 3.7 times per road game and thrown 6 interceptions on the road this season. Making things a bigger problem is that the Dallas defense is allowing only 4.9 yards per pass attempt at home with 3.0 sacks and 1.5 interceptions per home game. In his 3 game career against Dallas, Eli has completed only 50% of his passes with 4 TD's, 4 interceptions and a QB Rating of 64.9. The Giants do look good sometimes but tonight they won't look good at all.
The Dallas Cowboys and TO are in the house baby and it's time to show the football and betting worlds why you don't go against the Boys in a Prime Time TV game. You just don't. The Cowboys come into this game looking to shut all their critics up and looking to take sole possession of first place in the NFC East. I have to admit that some road games including the and mostly the game in Philly have made me doubt this Cowboys team but overall they have been impressive and there is no reason for them to lose on TV, at home and in a game of this magnitude. They are by far the overall better football team in this game but the firepower of the Giants has everyone overthinking and trying to find reasons why they should a) stay away from the game or b) go with the Giants because that would be the trendy thing to do (bet on a Manning brother). Well if gambling were that easy, we would all be rich. Not only do all the intangibles point to a Cowboys win by 10+ points in this game but the Dallas Cowboys are a more skilled football team with a better coach and some guys who need to put up or shutup. The Cowboys are averaging 30.5 points per home game this season on 360.5 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play. The fun part? The Giants are allowing a whopping 26.7 points per game on the road for 371.0 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, it's time for Dallas RB Julius Jones to show us some love. The Cowboys have rushed for 154.0 yards per home game on 4.5 yards per carry. Jones lives for Monday Nights and in his 3 career Monday Night games, Jones is averaging 98.3 rushing yards per game with 3 TD's, no fumbles and 4.9 yards per carry. In his 2 career games versus the NY Giants, Jones is averaging 111.5 rushing yards per game with 1 touchdown and no fumbles. The Giants defense is horrendous against the run on the road allowing 145.3 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. Jones will have a monster night. In the air, QB Drew Bledsoe is a turnover machine but he can make big plays. He is completing only 56.0% of his passes at home this season for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. However, he has not thrown an interception at home and is getting sacked only 1.5 times per home game. The Giants defense is allowing their road opponent QB's to complete 61.9% of their passes for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The Giants do have a good pass rush but look for them to have problems getting through tonight. The Cowboys are converting an impressive 43.8% of third downs at home this season while the Giants allow road opponents to convert a whopping 48.9% of third down chances (the Cowboys allow 18.9% of third downs to be converted against them at home). This is the Cowboys time to show what they are all about tonight and expect them to make the big plays when they have to.
Finally we get a Monday Night Game where the public is divided on the action and we don't have to worry about a public screw job. Vegas has this line right where it should be and both sides will have their backers. For those of you taking the OVER, be careful please because that might be the screwjob of the night. The Cowboys have solid D at home and they will probably be running 65-70% of the time tonight trying to control the clock and keep Jones in business. The OVER is very dangerous. The home teams are usually good on Monday Nights and it's time to cash another one.
Trend of the Game: NY Giants are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven Monday Night games.
Dallas 26, NY Giants 13
:cheers:
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 22-12-3 (+21.10 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-5-2 (+2.70 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 5-1-1 (+14.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
35-13-2 (73%) ATS in Football the last two weeks
*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.
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Monday, October 23
Dallas Cowboys -3 (5 Units)
The New York Football Giants roll into Dallas for what some are calling the best Monday Nighter we have had so far this year. I tend to agree but betting wise this is a nightmare and I would rather we have a boring game where the line would be off and all the squares would jump on the same side so we can fade them. Not the case here. The Giants come into this game with a 3-2 record on the season (Dallas has the same record) and this game is for sole controle of the NFC East Division lead. The Giants are coming off a huge 27-14 win in Atlanta last week which was impressive to say the least. Combine that with their comeback win in Philadelphia earlier in the season and the Giants have looked like one of the most dangerous road teams in the league. However, don't you go forgetting the Giants and their big blowout loss in Seattle in late September. I mean Sean Alexander ran for only 40 some yards in that game and the Seahawks still won 42-30 against what I like to think is a very suspect NY Giants defense. Now you look at the other two teams they have beat on the road (Philadelphia and Atlanta) and you realize that those are not two of the elite teams in the NFL this season. The Dallas Cowboys are getting there. The Giants are averaging a nice 29.0 points per road game this season on 388.3 total yards of offense and 6.2 yards per play. However, the Cowboys defense is one of the best they will see all year and they are allowing only 8.0 points in two home games (albeit against Washington and Houston but still) and only 238.5 total yards per game on 4.4 yards per play at home. Impressive. On the ground, RB Tiki Barber has been the center of attention all week but did you guys know that in 17 career games versus Dallas, Tiki is averaging only 64.7 rushing yards per game with only 4 TD's? Did you also know that Barber sucks on Monday Nights? He is averaging only 45.1 rushing yards per game in 11 Monday Night games in his career with only 2 touchdowns? Wow. The Giants rely heavily on the success of their running attack averaging 139.3 rushing yards per road game on 5.3 yards per carry. Problem there is that Dallas is allowing only 63.5 rushing yards per home game on 3.4 yards per carry. In other words, forget about Tiki tonight. In the air, QB Eli Manning is good but he makes mistakes. Manning is completing 66.0% of his passes on the road for 6.9 yards per pass attempt but he has been sacked 3.7 times per road game and thrown 6 interceptions on the road this season. Making things a bigger problem is that the Dallas defense is allowing only 4.9 yards per pass attempt at home with 3.0 sacks and 1.5 interceptions per home game. In his 3 game career against Dallas, Eli has completed only 50% of his passes with 4 TD's, 4 interceptions and a QB Rating of 64.9. The Giants do look good sometimes but tonight they won't look good at all.
The Dallas Cowboys and TO are in the house baby and it's time to show the football and betting worlds why you don't go against the Boys in a Prime Time TV game. You just don't. The Cowboys come into this game looking to shut all their critics up and looking to take sole possession of first place in the NFC East. I have to admit that some road games including the and mostly the game in Philly have made me doubt this Cowboys team but overall they have been impressive and there is no reason for them to lose on TV, at home and in a game of this magnitude. They are by far the overall better football team in this game but the firepower of the Giants has everyone overthinking and trying to find reasons why they should a) stay away from the game or b) go with the Giants because that would be the trendy thing to do (bet on a Manning brother). Well if gambling were that easy, we would all be rich. Not only do all the intangibles point to a Cowboys win by 10+ points in this game but the Dallas Cowboys are a more skilled football team with a better coach and some guys who need to put up or shutup. The Cowboys are averaging 30.5 points per home game this season on 360.5 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play. The fun part? The Giants are allowing a whopping 26.7 points per game on the road for 371.0 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, it's time for Dallas RB Julius Jones to show us some love. The Cowboys have rushed for 154.0 yards per home game on 4.5 yards per carry. Jones lives for Monday Nights and in his 3 career Monday Night games, Jones is averaging 98.3 rushing yards per game with 3 TD's, no fumbles and 4.9 yards per carry. In his 2 career games versus the NY Giants, Jones is averaging 111.5 rushing yards per game with 1 touchdown and no fumbles. The Giants defense is horrendous against the run on the road allowing 145.3 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. Jones will have a monster night. In the air, QB Drew Bledsoe is a turnover machine but he can make big plays. He is completing only 56.0% of his passes at home this season for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. However, he has not thrown an interception at home and is getting sacked only 1.5 times per home game. The Giants defense is allowing their road opponent QB's to complete 61.9% of their passes for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The Giants do have a good pass rush but look for them to have problems getting through tonight. The Cowboys are converting an impressive 43.8% of third downs at home this season while the Giants allow road opponents to convert a whopping 48.9% of third down chances (the Cowboys allow 18.9% of third downs to be converted against them at home). This is the Cowboys time to show what they are all about tonight and expect them to make the big plays when they have to.
Finally we get a Monday Night Game where the public is divided on the action and we don't have to worry about a public screw job. Vegas has this line right where it should be and both sides will have their backers. For those of you taking the OVER, be careful please because that might be the screwjob of the night. The Cowboys have solid D at home and they will probably be running 65-70% of the time tonight trying to control the clock and keep Jones in business. The OVER is very dangerous. The home teams are usually good on Monday Nights and it's time to cash another one.
Trend of the Game: NY Giants are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven Monday Night games.
Dallas 26, NY Giants 13
:cheers:
