MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 13-10-2 (+85.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 13-10-2 (+85.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 3-2-1 ATS (+8.50 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. I am not going to do much or post that early for the first few weeks until I can get a good feel on how some of the teams are performing and what some of the teams can do. The NFL is nothing like college football and games are always a lot closer than most people think. Don't forget these are not kids trying to make the pros but guys who already have big contracts and who are here for a reason. Enjoy the season of big plays.
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Monday, October 15
Atlanta Falcons +5 (50 Units) ***PRIMETIME PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The New York Giants don't have a good ATS history on Monday Night Football but that has nothing to do with my selection in this game. The Giants come into this game looking like one of the hottest teams in the NFL as they have won three straight games, have covered the spread in all three games and have outyarded their opponents in all three games. That's probably as impressive as it gets in the NFL these days so it's tough to go against them. However, what you have to keep in mind here is that the Giants were underdogs in two of those games yet won and covered while they were -3.5 last week at home against the Jets and let me tell you right now that the Jets are nowhere near as good as the Falcons. The Giants lost their first two games of the year against Green Bay and Dallas by an average amount of 16 points but it seems like they are starting to turn things around. I know this was when Michael Vick was QB for the Falcons and the teams were different but Atlanta has had the Giants number over the years. The Giants are 1-4 straight up in their last five games against the Giants so things could be very different tonight. The Giants come into this game averaging 24.6 points per game this season and they have done it on 332.8 total yards per game and 5.5 yards per play. Atlanta's defense has actually been half decent for a team that has faced the 12th toughest schedule in the league this year as they have allowed 20.0 points per game and 325.2 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, the Giants are averaging 117.0 rushing yards per game this season and 4.4 yards per carry. Atlanta has not been stout against the run but they have held teams to 121.2 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. That will force QB Eli Manning to make some plays tonight and he has completed 58.6% of his passes this season for 6.9 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdown passes, 6 interceptions and an 82.7 QB Rating. However, Atlanta's secondary has been weak this season and they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 63.6% of their passes this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. However they have held some pretty good QB's to an average QB Rating of 84.8 this season which is impressive. The Giants are one of those teams that has been winning because they convert more than 44.0% of their third down chances this season but they might hit a road block tonight as the Falcons held their opponents to a 37.3% conversion rate this season. The Falcons defense has also been very solid in the Red Zone this season holding their opponents to only a 45.5% conversion rate in the Red Zone which is pretty high up there in the NFL standings for this category. I think the Giants are going to have a tough time moving the ball and converting big downs tonight and as long as Atlanta can hold them to short yardage field goals all game, which they have done most of the year, they should have a shot to stop the Giants offense. Atlanta has forced teams to attempt 12 field goals this season which is a lot and means their defense is a BEND BUT DONT BREAK! I like the Falcons to make some big plays in this game.
The Atlanta Falcons are 1-4 on the season and despite the bad record, I think they are a lot better than what they have shown. It was tough for them to start the year under the shadows of the whole Michael Vick thing and I don't think the talks are going to go away until the Falcons start doing things on their own. Well much like the New Orleans Saints did last night and did last year in their first game back in their home building, I think Atlanta is going to be pretty damn pumped up to make things happen tonight. The Falcons rank in my TOP 20 teams in the NFL despite their bad record. Despite the bad record they have covered the spread in 3 of their 5 games this season and their losses have all come against teams that have played well. The Falcons got smoked by Minnesota in their season opener but they recovered very nicely and lost to Jacksonville by only 6 points on the road in Week 2. Then came a seven point home loss to the Carolina Panthers where the Falcons actually won the yardage battle by 100+ yards but still lost the game. Week 4 saw them beat Houston by 10 points at home and last week saw them play well at Tennessee where they covered the nine point underdog spread. The Falcons come into this game averaging only 13.8 points per game this season but they do average 291.4 total yards per game on 5.1 yards per play but converting big chances has been their big problem this season. The NY Giants defense has allowed 24.8 points per game this season on 314.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play so the Falcons have just as much of a chance as the Giants offense to create something. On the ground, RB Warrick Dunn has not led this team to big things like he was supposed to in Vick's absence as they average only 91.6 rushing yards per game this season and only 3.7 yards per carry. That might not be so much of a big deal because the Giants are good against the run this season and they have allowed only 95.2 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. So it's up to QB Joey Harrington to make things happen. He has put up better numbers than Eli Manning as he has completed 67.3% of his passes this season for 1070 passing yards, 6.9 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions with a QB Rating of 87.3. The Giants pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 58.9% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt so it's safe to say that Harrington won't be up against one of the best secondaries in this league. Protecting Harrington might be a problem for the Falcons as they have allowed 3.6 sacks per game this season and the Giants have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL (7 sacks against the Falcons in last year's matchup) so Harrington has to be ready. He has been very good with interceptions this season and has looked like a smarter quarterback. Much like the Giants, Atlanta has been very good on 3rd downs this season converting 42.1% of their chances on the year while the Giants defense has had big time problems stopping teams on 3rd down. They have allowed their opponents to convert 44.9% of the time on third down this season. The Falcons biggest problem has been converting chances in the Red Zone this season. HUGE PROBLEM. However, the Giants have a terrible Red Zone rate as opponents have converted 71.4% of their Red Zone chances against them. The Giants have also been terrible on kickoff coverage (worst in the NFL) and although it might be fixed to some degree, it could be the difference in this game tonight. I think Atlanta will struggle a bit but they should do enough to cover the spread.
The big question in this game is who has been the better quarterback? Yeah it sounds pretty stupid and all but I would have to say that up to this point it has been Joey Harrington over Eli Manning by a very small margin and you can't argue that Eli has had a tougher schedule because my numbers show the Giants as having the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL while the Falcons have had the 12th toughest schedule in the NFL this season. I know the Giants have been winning game and covering games all over the place in recent weeks but let me tell you right now that their defense is not as good as people think and the fact that they can't stop teams in the Red Zone or on 3rd down is going to be a big problem when the National TV lights are turned on. The Falcons have had all sorts of problems with players not happy with the coaching staff but at 1-4 I think they come out motivated on both sides of the ball. Both teams were very good in October last year covering most of their games in that month. The obvious choice here is the Giants because of the way they have played but the Giants are the kind of team that plays at the same level as their competition which is why they have played so well. I have a feeling they are going to underestimate the Falcons in this game. I also like the UNDER and think the Falcons keep things close in this one. Huge play for me.
Trend of the Game: The NY Giants are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 Monday Night football games.
Atlanta 20, NY Giants 17
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 13-10-2 (+85.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 3-2-1 ATS (+8.50 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. I am not going to do much or post that early for the first few weeks until I can get a good feel on how some of the teams are performing and what some of the teams can do. The NFL is nothing like college football and games are always a lot closer than most people think. Don't forget these are not kids trying to make the pros but guys who already have big contracts and who are here for a reason. Enjoy the season of big plays.
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Monday, October 15
Atlanta Falcons +5 (50 Units) ***PRIMETIME PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The New York Giants don't have a good ATS history on Monday Night Football but that has nothing to do with my selection in this game. The Giants come into this game looking like one of the hottest teams in the NFL as they have won three straight games, have covered the spread in all three games and have outyarded their opponents in all three games. That's probably as impressive as it gets in the NFL these days so it's tough to go against them. However, what you have to keep in mind here is that the Giants were underdogs in two of those games yet won and covered while they were -3.5 last week at home against the Jets and let me tell you right now that the Jets are nowhere near as good as the Falcons. The Giants lost their first two games of the year against Green Bay and Dallas by an average amount of 16 points but it seems like they are starting to turn things around. I know this was when Michael Vick was QB for the Falcons and the teams were different but Atlanta has had the Giants number over the years. The Giants are 1-4 straight up in their last five games against the Giants so things could be very different tonight. The Giants come into this game averaging 24.6 points per game this season and they have done it on 332.8 total yards per game and 5.5 yards per play. Atlanta's defense has actually been half decent for a team that has faced the 12th toughest schedule in the league this year as they have allowed 20.0 points per game and 325.2 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, the Giants are averaging 117.0 rushing yards per game this season and 4.4 yards per carry. Atlanta has not been stout against the run but they have held teams to 121.2 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. That will force QB Eli Manning to make some plays tonight and he has completed 58.6% of his passes this season for 6.9 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdown passes, 6 interceptions and an 82.7 QB Rating. However, Atlanta's secondary has been weak this season and they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 63.6% of their passes this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. However they have held some pretty good QB's to an average QB Rating of 84.8 this season which is impressive. The Giants are one of those teams that has been winning because they convert more than 44.0% of their third down chances this season but they might hit a road block tonight as the Falcons held their opponents to a 37.3% conversion rate this season. The Falcons defense has also been very solid in the Red Zone this season holding their opponents to only a 45.5% conversion rate in the Red Zone which is pretty high up there in the NFL standings for this category. I think the Giants are going to have a tough time moving the ball and converting big downs tonight and as long as Atlanta can hold them to short yardage field goals all game, which they have done most of the year, they should have a shot to stop the Giants offense. Atlanta has forced teams to attempt 12 field goals this season which is a lot and means their defense is a BEND BUT DONT BREAK! I like the Falcons to make some big plays in this game.
The Atlanta Falcons are 1-4 on the season and despite the bad record, I think they are a lot better than what they have shown. It was tough for them to start the year under the shadows of the whole Michael Vick thing and I don't think the talks are going to go away until the Falcons start doing things on their own. Well much like the New Orleans Saints did last night and did last year in their first game back in their home building, I think Atlanta is going to be pretty damn pumped up to make things happen tonight. The Falcons rank in my TOP 20 teams in the NFL despite their bad record. Despite the bad record they have covered the spread in 3 of their 5 games this season and their losses have all come against teams that have played well. The Falcons got smoked by Minnesota in their season opener but they recovered very nicely and lost to Jacksonville by only 6 points on the road in Week 2. Then came a seven point home loss to the Carolina Panthers where the Falcons actually won the yardage battle by 100+ yards but still lost the game. Week 4 saw them beat Houston by 10 points at home and last week saw them play well at Tennessee where they covered the nine point underdog spread. The Falcons come into this game averaging only 13.8 points per game this season but they do average 291.4 total yards per game on 5.1 yards per play but converting big chances has been their big problem this season. The NY Giants defense has allowed 24.8 points per game this season on 314.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play so the Falcons have just as much of a chance as the Giants offense to create something. On the ground, RB Warrick Dunn has not led this team to big things like he was supposed to in Vick's absence as they average only 91.6 rushing yards per game this season and only 3.7 yards per carry. That might not be so much of a big deal because the Giants are good against the run this season and they have allowed only 95.2 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. So it's up to QB Joey Harrington to make things happen. He has put up better numbers than Eli Manning as he has completed 67.3% of his passes this season for 1070 passing yards, 6.9 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions with a QB Rating of 87.3. The Giants pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 58.9% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt so it's safe to say that Harrington won't be up against one of the best secondaries in this league. Protecting Harrington might be a problem for the Falcons as they have allowed 3.6 sacks per game this season and the Giants have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL (7 sacks against the Falcons in last year's matchup) so Harrington has to be ready. He has been very good with interceptions this season and has looked like a smarter quarterback. Much like the Giants, Atlanta has been very good on 3rd downs this season converting 42.1% of their chances on the year while the Giants defense has had big time problems stopping teams on 3rd down. They have allowed their opponents to convert 44.9% of the time on third down this season. The Falcons biggest problem has been converting chances in the Red Zone this season. HUGE PROBLEM. However, the Giants have a terrible Red Zone rate as opponents have converted 71.4% of their Red Zone chances against them. The Giants have also been terrible on kickoff coverage (worst in the NFL) and although it might be fixed to some degree, it could be the difference in this game tonight. I think Atlanta will struggle a bit but they should do enough to cover the spread.
The big question in this game is who has been the better quarterback? Yeah it sounds pretty stupid and all but I would have to say that up to this point it has been Joey Harrington over Eli Manning by a very small margin and you can't argue that Eli has had a tougher schedule because my numbers show the Giants as having the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL while the Falcons have had the 12th toughest schedule in the NFL this season. I know the Giants have been winning game and covering games all over the place in recent weeks but let me tell you right now that their defense is not as good as people think and the fact that they can't stop teams in the Red Zone or on 3rd down is going to be a big problem when the National TV lights are turned on. The Falcons have had all sorts of problems with players not happy with the coaching staff but at 1-4 I think they come out motivated on both sides of the ball. Both teams were very good in October last year covering most of their games in that month. The obvious choice here is the Giants because of the way they have played but the Giants are the kind of team that plays at the same level as their competition which is why they have played so well. I have a feeling they are going to underestimate the Falcons in this game. I also like the UNDER and think the Falcons keep things close in this one. Huge play for me.
Trend of the Game: The NY Giants are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 Monday Night football games.
Atlanta 20, NY Giants 17
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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