MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 14-11-2 (+130.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 14-11-2 (+130.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 1-0 ATS (+100.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. I am not going to do much or post that early for the first few weeks until I can get a good feel on how some of the teams are performing and what some of the teams can do. The NFL is nothing like college football and games are always a lot closer than most people think. Don't forget these are not kids trying to make the pros but guys who already have big contracts and who are here for a reason. Enjoy the season of big plays.
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Monday, October 22
Indianapolis Colts -3 (25 Units) ***ROAD FAVORITE PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Indianapolis Colts aren't just some other team that doesn't deserve to be favored in a game like this, they are the 5-0 Indianapolis Colts and I don't think they're just gonna sit there and let the New England Patriots suck on all the glory. I have already heard some of you argue that Indianapolis is 0-2 ATS on the road as a favorite this season but football handicapping 101 says that every game should be treated as an individual and that's what I'm doing here. The road wins over Houston and Tennessee were both ATS losses but neither one of those games was on a Monday Night where the spotlight is shining and where Peyton Manning has made a name for himself. If you want to question the way the Colts have played on the road, well they did walk into Tennessee (a team they always struggle against) and pulled off an incredible win regardless of the spread in the game. They went to Houston the following week a beat a half decent team by six points but keep in mind that Houston got this cover by 0.5 and it came via the backdoor as it was 27-10 for the Colts heading into the fourth quarter before the Texans scored 14 late in the game. Other than that, the Colts have outyarded their opponents in all five games this season and don't think the hype is just hype, these guys are the real deal and you're all about to find out. The Colts come into this game averaging 32.8 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 402.8 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play in those games. Jacksonville's defense has played pretty damn well this season as they have allowed 11.6 points per game and allowed 304.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play. However, that 5.6 yards per play concerns me a bit because that's a large number to allow against an accurate team like the Colts. On the ground, Indianapolis is averaging 142.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.5 yards per carry. I have no doubt that they can attack the Jaguars on the ground as they have allowed 96.4 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry but who are not used to seeing that much running from a team like the Colts. In the air, QB Peyton Manning has completed 69.7% of his passes this season for 1319 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Jacksonville is in big time trouble in this game as they have allowed opponents to complete 63.9% of their passes this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt and Manning is going to pick these guys apart on all fronts in this one. You cannot allow that many yards per pass attempt against this guy. The Jaguars defensive success has been primarily based on their ability to pass rush as they have 15 sacks in five games this season. well the Colts have alllowed only 3 sacks all season (five games) so the Jaguars are going to have to come up with something else in this game. Manning has thrown only 2 interceptions this season and that's another positive for Colts backers as Jacsonville's secondary has not made big plays this season and they have only 4 interceptions in five games. Manning has led this team to a 55.6% third down conversion rate this season (50% on the road so no letdown there) and that is going to help extend long drives as Jaconsville has allowed home opponents to convert more than 40.0% of the time on third down and like I said before, Manning should have no problems running the show on his own. The reason I think the Colts are the best team in the NFL is because they just don't turn the ball over. They have lost only one fumble all season and don't throw many interceptions or allow many sacks. Jackonsville's defense has yet to really face a team like this and they are about to be exposed in more ways than one.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the best teams in the NFL and don't make any mistake about that. Right now I have them ranked as my #4 team in the NFL but regardless of their ranking, they are not at the same kind of level as New England or Indianapolis. The Jaguars come into this game with a 4-1 record on the year but that should concern some of you backing them because they are only 3-2 ATS in those games and have faced the #24 toughest schedule out of 32 teams in the NFL. Sadly enough the only team they lost to this season was Tennessee and the Titans are the only TOP 10 team they have faced all season. If the Titans can come in here and win 13-10, im pretty sure the Colts (who are quite a few notches above the Titants) can come in here and do the same. Other than losing to Tennessee at home, Jaconsville beat the crap out of the Houston Texans and had problems getting past the hapless Atlanta Falcons. Many of you probably remember the Jaguars 44-17 home win against these same Indianapolis Colts last season as +1 home underdogs but make no mistake about it, that was then and this is now. The Colts won by four or more points in their previous two visits to Jacksonville and last year's game was very late in the year. The Jaguars come into this game tonight averaging 20.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 355.2 total yards of offense this season and 6.0 yards per play which is probably encouraging for many of their backers. However, Indianapolis is a lot better defensively than they get credit for as they have allowed 17.6 points per game this season and have allowed only 278.2 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. The Jaguars have quite the rushing duo of RB Fred Taylor and Maurice Drew Jones. They have led this team to 154.2 rushing yards per game this season and 4.8 yards per carry but it's tough to run if you're playing from behind. Indianapolis has allowed 105.4 rushing yards per game on the year and allowed 4.2 yards per carry so expect them to make some stops in this one. In the air, QB David Garrard has completed 66.2% of his passes this season for 1069 yards, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions for a QB Rating of 104.7. The numbers are misleading for the Colts defense as opponents have completed 71.1% of their passes against them but they have allowed only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The high completion percentage is only because teams are always completing short passes and don't dare go deep on a secondary that already has 6 interceptions in five games this season. Jacksonville's offensive line has not been that great this season as they have allowed Garrard to be sacked 14 times this season which is good news for Colts backers as they have 9 sacks in five games and coming off the BYE WEEK they could have enough energy to pound away on Garrard. My only concern with the Colts defense is that opponents are converting 47.5% of third down chances against them this season but Jackonsville has not been as good at home when it comes to converting third downs as they convert 47.6% of the time on the season and only 41.7% of the time at home. The X-Factor in this game is the fumbles. Indianapolis has forced a whopping 13 fumbles already this season while Jacksonville has fumbled 9 times this season and lost 7 of those fumbles. This is an aggressive defense that takes a lot of risks and more often than not, those risks payoff and Manning is one of the best QB's when it comes to converting points off turnovers. The Jaguars also have all sorts of problems in the Red Zone as they have converted only 38.9% of their Red Zone entries into touchdowns and field goals are just not going to cut it in tonight's game. I like the Colts defense to come up with some big plays a la Denver Broncos from last night and the Jaguars offense is not about to score 44 points on these guys like they did last year.
You guys may hate on me for this but the Indianapolis Colts are my #1 team in the NFL. I don't care what New England has done because out of their seven opponents this season, only two are worthy of being called 'playoff potential' teams while Indianapolis has already faced and won against two of those teams in only five games. There comes a time where you fade the public and go for the home underdog. However, as we learned last Monday Night, you don't do it against good teams like the Giants or the Colts. I mean as I already mentioned, the Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday Night games and this is the game kind of game Peyton Manning loves to play in. With the Denver Broncos cashing in as big home underdogs last night, I have a feeling a lot more money is going to come in on Jacksonville seeing how they are considered better than Denver and considered one of the top teams in the NFL. Jacksonville's defense is a bit of a fraud in my mind. They don't allow many points per game but they do allow a lot of yards per play and their secondary has struggled all season to make big plays and prevent long pass completions. You have to understand that both New England and Indianapolis are both SUPER TEAMS that rarely have letdowns or breakdowns in big games like this one. The Colts are the play in this one guys and you'll soon find out the hard way that when it comes to SUPER TEAMS like them, it's just not smart to go against them in Nationally Televised games.
Trend of the Game: Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday Night Football games.
Indianapolis 30, Jacksonville 16
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 14-11-2 (+130.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 1-0 ATS (+100.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. I am not going to do much or post that early for the first few weeks until I can get a good feel on how some of the teams are performing and what some of the teams can do. The NFL is nothing like college football and games are always a lot closer than most people think. Don't forget these are not kids trying to make the pros but guys who already have big contracts and who are here for a reason. Enjoy the season of big plays.
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Monday, October 22
Indianapolis Colts -3 (25 Units) ***ROAD FAVORITE PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Indianapolis Colts aren't just some other team that doesn't deserve to be favored in a game like this, they are the 5-0 Indianapolis Colts and I don't think they're just gonna sit there and let the New England Patriots suck on all the glory. I have already heard some of you argue that Indianapolis is 0-2 ATS on the road as a favorite this season but football handicapping 101 says that every game should be treated as an individual and that's what I'm doing here. The road wins over Houston and Tennessee were both ATS losses but neither one of those games was on a Monday Night where the spotlight is shining and where Peyton Manning has made a name for himself. If you want to question the way the Colts have played on the road, well they did walk into Tennessee (a team they always struggle against) and pulled off an incredible win regardless of the spread in the game. They went to Houston the following week a beat a half decent team by six points but keep in mind that Houston got this cover by 0.5 and it came via the backdoor as it was 27-10 for the Colts heading into the fourth quarter before the Texans scored 14 late in the game. Other than that, the Colts have outyarded their opponents in all five games this season and don't think the hype is just hype, these guys are the real deal and you're all about to find out. The Colts come into this game averaging 32.8 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 402.8 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play in those games. Jacksonville's defense has played pretty damn well this season as they have allowed 11.6 points per game and allowed 304.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play. However, that 5.6 yards per play concerns me a bit because that's a large number to allow against an accurate team like the Colts. On the ground, Indianapolis is averaging 142.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.5 yards per carry. I have no doubt that they can attack the Jaguars on the ground as they have allowed 96.4 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry but who are not used to seeing that much running from a team like the Colts. In the air, QB Peyton Manning has completed 69.7% of his passes this season for 1319 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Jacksonville is in big time trouble in this game as they have allowed opponents to complete 63.9% of their passes this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt and Manning is going to pick these guys apart on all fronts in this one. You cannot allow that many yards per pass attempt against this guy. The Jaguars defensive success has been primarily based on their ability to pass rush as they have 15 sacks in five games this season. well the Colts have alllowed only 3 sacks all season (five games) so the Jaguars are going to have to come up with something else in this game. Manning has thrown only 2 interceptions this season and that's another positive for Colts backers as Jacsonville's secondary has not made big plays this season and they have only 4 interceptions in five games. Manning has led this team to a 55.6% third down conversion rate this season (50% on the road so no letdown there) and that is going to help extend long drives as Jaconsville has allowed home opponents to convert more than 40.0% of the time on third down and like I said before, Manning should have no problems running the show on his own. The reason I think the Colts are the best team in the NFL is because they just don't turn the ball over. They have lost only one fumble all season and don't throw many interceptions or allow many sacks. Jackonsville's defense has yet to really face a team like this and they are about to be exposed in more ways than one.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the best teams in the NFL and don't make any mistake about that. Right now I have them ranked as my #4 team in the NFL but regardless of their ranking, they are not at the same kind of level as New England or Indianapolis. The Jaguars come into this game with a 4-1 record on the year but that should concern some of you backing them because they are only 3-2 ATS in those games and have faced the #24 toughest schedule out of 32 teams in the NFL. Sadly enough the only team they lost to this season was Tennessee and the Titans are the only TOP 10 team they have faced all season. If the Titans can come in here and win 13-10, im pretty sure the Colts (who are quite a few notches above the Titants) can come in here and do the same. Other than losing to Tennessee at home, Jaconsville beat the crap out of the Houston Texans and had problems getting past the hapless Atlanta Falcons. Many of you probably remember the Jaguars 44-17 home win against these same Indianapolis Colts last season as +1 home underdogs but make no mistake about it, that was then and this is now. The Colts won by four or more points in their previous two visits to Jacksonville and last year's game was very late in the year. The Jaguars come into this game tonight averaging 20.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 355.2 total yards of offense this season and 6.0 yards per play which is probably encouraging for many of their backers. However, Indianapolis is a lot better defensively than they get credit for as they have allowed 17.6 points per game this season and have allowed only 278.2 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. The Jaguars have quite the rushing duo of RB Fred Taylor and Maurice Drew Jones. They have led this team to 154.2 rushing yards per game this season and 4.8 yards per carry but it's tough to run if you're playing from behind. Indianapolis has allowed 105.4 rushing yards per game on the year and allowed 4.2 yards per carry so expect them to make some stops in this one. In the air, QB David Garrard has completed 66.2% of his passes this season for 1069 yards, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions for a QB Rating of 104.7. The numbers are misleading for the Colts defense as opponents have completed 71.1% of their passes against them but they have allowed only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The high completion percentage is only because teams are always completing short passes and don't dare go deep on a secondary that already has 6 interceptions in five games this season. Jacksonville's offensive line has not been that great this season as they have allowed Garrard to be sacked 14 times this season which is good news for Colts backers as they have 9 sacks in five games and coming off the BYE WEEK they could have enough energy to pound away on Garrard. My only concern with the Colts defense is that opponents are converting 47.5% of third down chances against them this season but Jackonsville has not been as good at home when it comes to converting third downs as they convert 47.6% of the time on the season and only 41.7% of the time at home. The X-Factor in this game is the fumbles. Indianapolis has forced a whopping 13 fumbles already this season while Jacksonville has fumbled 9 times this season and lost 7 of those fumbles. This is an aggressive defense that takes a lot of risks and more often than not, those risks payoff and Manning is one of the best QB's when it comes to converting points off turnovers. The Jaguars also have all sorts of problems in the Red Zone as they have converted only 38.9% of their Red Zone entries into touchdowns and field goals are just not going to cut it in tonight's game. I like the Colts defense to come up with some big plays a la Denver Broncos from last night and the Jaguars offense is not about to score 44 points on these guys like they did last year.
You guys may hate on me for this but the Indianapolis Colts are my #1 team in the NFL. I don't care what New England has done because out of their seven opponents this season, only two are worthy of being called 'playoff potential' teams while Indianapolis has already faced and won against two of those teams in only five games. There comes a time where you fade the public and go for the home underdog. However, as we learned last Monday Night, you don't do it against good teams like the Giants or the Colts. I mean as I already mentioned, the Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday Night games and this is the game kind of game Peyton Manning loves to play in. With the Denver Broncos cashing in as big home underdogs last night, I have a feeling a lot more money is going to come in on Jacksonville seeing how they are considered better than Denver and considered one of the top teams in the NFL. Jacksonville's defense is a bit of a fraud in my mind. They don't allow many points per game but they do allow a lot of yards per play and their secondary has struggled all season to make big plays and prevent long pass completions. You have to understand that both New England and Indianapolis are both SUPER TEAMS that rarely have letdowns or breakdowns in big games like this one. The Colts are the play in this one guys and you'll soon find out the hard way that when it comes to SUPER TEAMS like them, it's just not smart to go against them in Nationally Televised games.
Trend of the Game: Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday Night Football games.
Indianapolis 30, Jacksonville 16
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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rayer
