MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 NFL Playoffs Internet Posted Record: 4-2 (+84.00 Units)
2006 NFL Playoffs Internet ATS Record: 4-2 (+84.00 Units)
2006 NFL Playoffs O/U Predictions Record: 4-1
2006 NFL Regular Season Record: 58-44-6 (-311.80 Units)
*There are my plays. I post information for your use handicapping use only and not your wagering use. Tail if you wish, fade if you wish. You are all capable of making your own decisions.
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NFC Divisional #2
Chicago Bears -9.5 (50 Units)
I know this may sound stupid to say at this point of the season since they made it this far, but does anyone else just have the feeling that Seattle is a not a team that belongs in the FINAL 8? This has nothing to do with Dallas or anyone else being here but the Seahawks just don't have what it takes to compete with a team like the Bears, let alone most other teams in the playoffs. Okay, they got their big win last week at home in a playoff game but their life-span in these playoffs is already hanging by a shoe lace and I sincerely think that the Seahawks will have that shoe lace cutoff in this game and it will happen often and early. The last time these two teams met, Shaun Alexander was already out with an injury and the Seahawks got their asses handed to them 37-6 on Sunday Night Footbal back in October. You can argue all you want that Alexander would have a difference in that game but the bottom line remains that it was a 31 point loss and the Seahawks looked as lost and confused as anyone has all year against the Bears defense. The only road game that somewhat impressed me was the Seahawks win in Denver this year but after the Broncos showed everyone how they are not much more than pretenders this year, my opinion has somewhat changed. Seattle was 2-6 ATS on the road this year and this is pretty much out of their element. The Seahawks come into this game averaging 19.3 points per game on the road this season as they have averaged 295.4 total yards and 5.1 yards per play in those games. Chicago's defense is very good as they have allowed only 16.4 points per home game this season on 282.3 total yards of offense and only 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Shaun Alexander is averaging 69.2 rushing yards per road game as opposed to a whopping 110.0 rushing yards per home game. Alexander has only 2 touchdowns and has lost 3 fumbles on the road. The only good news for him is that the Bears are allowing 4.3 yards per carry at home but that goes on only 102.3 rushing yards per game at Soldier Field. In the air, QB Matt Hasselbeck looked completely lost in the first meeting with the Bears and I don't see how that would change. He is completing 61.4% of his passes on the road for 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. However, the Bears defense has allowed opposing visiting teams to complete only 54.8% of their passes for only 5.2 yards per carry this season. Seattle's offensive line often has problems protecting Hasselbeck as he has been sacked a whopping 19 times in only 6 road games and the line has allowed 22 total sacks on the road. Chicago's defense is relentless and they had 23 sacks at home this season and 14 interceptions in Soldier Field. The Seahawks are averaging less than 10 points per first half this season and if they can't get going early in this game, the lights could be out in not time. Chicago's defense is going to win this game for them and the offense won't have to do much as has been the case all season long.
The Chicago Bears are a quite possibly the best team in the NFL right now but that is as debatable as it gets and I say that because of how week the NFC appears to be. Would the Bears be where they are had they been in the AFC this season? Possibly. They were 2-2 against AFC teams this year so it's hard to tell. The Bears only lost one game to an NFC team all year long which is quite impressive. I also like the fact that the Bears are 5-3 ATS at home this year and winning at Soldier Field has become next to impossible for most visiting teams from the NFC. As poorly as Rex Grossman and the Bears offense has played this season, you have to look at the good and you have to anticipate that you will see the Bears best effort in what is their most important game in years. Sure they struggled but it's time to turn things up a notch. And for those who keep saying that the Bears played like shit towards the end of the year, I find that hard to understand when they won 6 of their last 8 games this year. It's not easy for a team that was rolling so high to get excited to play against Detroit and Tampa Bay (both ATS losses for the Bears) near the end of the season. The Bears come into this game averaging a whopping 28.6 points per home game this season on 332.4 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. Not spectacular but you have to understand that their defense will get them the ball back with good field position. Seattle's defense is allowing 22.5 points per road game this season and they have allowed 353.8 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Bears RB's are not the most prolific in the NFL but they grind things out and have averaged 123.4 rushing yards per home game on 3.8 yards per carry this season. Seattle's defense has allowed 137.1 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.4 yards per carry and if Thomas Jones wants, he can have another big game on the ground in this one. In the air, QB Rex Grossman has been under big time criticism but let's give him a chance to lead the team he has led all season long. Grossman is completing 56.3% of his passes at home for 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Throwing the ball into defenders hands has been Grossman's problem all year long but Seattle do not have many opportunistic players in their secondary. They have intercepted only 4 passes in eight road games this season and if Grossman can get some protection in this game, he'll have a fine game. Seattle is allowing opponents to complete 61.5% of their passes for 7.3 yards per pass attempt on the road. Seattle is easily beatable with the long pass and the Bears should be able to stretch things out. Like I said earlier, we don't even need Grossman to have a good game because the defense will make enough big plays and Devon Hester will lead the Bears to good field position on several drives. I think the Bears run away with this one.
I don't know what to make of the line for this game. The -9.5 seems to be designed to attract action on the Bears because they are holding the number below the 10 mark. However, oddsmakers also know that a lot of people are saying that this is too many points for a Divisional playoff game like this and a lot of people think the Seahawks are going to get the job done in this one. As a matter of fact, more than 60% of the public is shockingly on Seattle in this game. What is misleading for most is the way the Bears played in their last 3-4 games of the regular season. Having already clinched home field advantage through the playoffs, why should the Bears care to be impressive against the Lions, Bucs and Packers? They sure as heck didn't. This game is different and the Bears are the real deal in big games. The spread may seem high and all but Chicago's defense is just too good and believe it or not, this defense is the reason they are 13-3 on the year. Don't be misled by the last 3-4 games the Bears played this season.
Trend of the Game: Seattle is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus NFC opponents.
Chicago 34, Seattle 10
AFC Divisional #2
New England Patriots +4.5 (50 Units)
The New England Patriots and Tom Brady continue to impress and continue to cash in for us bettors when it comes to playoff games like last week's -9.5 over the New York Jets. The key to this game though is to avoid a repeat performance of last year's playoff run. Last January, the Patriots beat Jacksonville 28-3 at home in the Wildcard round of the playoffs before heading to Denver and losing 27-13. The Pats turned the ball over 5 times in that game last year and the only lead they ever had was 3-0 in that game. However, that was then and this is now. The difference between last year's Patriots team and this one is that the Pats were 5-3 ATS on the road last year while this year they are a very impressive 7-1 ATS on the road having lost only a game to the Dolphins earlier in the year. Impressive to say the least. The Patriots were made underdogs in three games this year by the oddsmaker and all three times the Pats responded with big wins in Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Tennessee. They actually won those games by a combined 45 total points. The Pats come into this game averaging 27.5 points per road game this season and they have done that by averaging 349.5 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. San Diego's defense has allowed only 16.5 points per home game this season and they have also allowed 305.8 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, RB Corey Dillon had 8 touchdowns on the road while not fumbling one single time. The Pats average 136.9 rushing yards per road game on 4.4 yards per carry this season. San Diego has allowed only 93.4 rushing yards per home game but they have also allowed 4.1 yards per carry in those games. In the air, Brady is completing 62.3% for 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 15 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions (compared to 9 interceptions at home). San Diego's defense is allowing visting teams to complete 56.9% of their passes at home this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. That actually works quite nicely for New England because 11 players have 10 or more receptions on that team and short effective passes is their thing. Brady will have to work quickly to avoid the Chargers pass rush. The Patriots are converting an impressive 47.0% of 3rd down chances on the road this year and scoring touchdowns 72.4% of the time in the Red Zone in those games. Kevin Faulk could be the x-factor in this game because he has returned some big punts on the road this year and averages 13.2 yards per return away from home. If anyone can keep up with the Chargers, it's mot definitely Tom Brady and the Patriots.
The San Diego Chargers knew they would have to pick their poison between the Colts and the Patriots and although the prospect of either the Jets and/or Chiefs winning last weekend was probably what this team was really hoping for, they now have to settle for a Divisional home game against the best playoff team we have seen in several years. The Colts would have probably been a much better matchup for the Chargers because the Chargers actually have the offense to beat Manning unlike the Chiefs or the Ravens who both proved to be nothing but a bunch of pretenders. As well as San Diego has played all season long (they have now won 10 straight games), you cannot forget about their losses to Kansas City and to Baltimore...their only two losses of the year. In one game, the Chiefs decided to shoot things out with the Chargers and they won. In the other game, Baltimore played pure defense and won on a big play late in the game. What you really have to look at here is who the Chargers have played against. In their 10 game win streak, they played against only two playoff bound teams and that was Kansas City and Seattle as they won by a combined total of only 14 points. As a matter of fact, San Diego played against only 3 playoff bound teams all year long, losing twice and winning twice but going 1-3 ATS in the process. The Chargers come into this game averaging 31.1 points per home game this year for 379.5 total yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. New England however have allowed only 13.5 points per road game this season and they have done it by allowing only 284.0 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, there is no doubt LT is the best RB in the world. Tomlinson has rushed for 117.4 yards per home game on 5.8 yards per carry but surprisingly enough, New England has allowed only 86.9 rushing yards per road game and only 3.9 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Philip Rivers is playing in his first ever playoff game. Rivers has completed 62.1% of his passes at home this season for 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. New England's secondary is without Harrison once again but they can compensate and have no problems. The Pats have allowed their road opponents to complete only 56.1% of their passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The Pats have 25 sacks on the road this season and they also have 8 interceptions to go with that. This game could essentially come down to who makes the biggest mistake. Tomlinson has not fumbled at home all year, Dillon has not fumbled on the road all year. Rivers has thrown 5 interceptions at home, Brady only 3 on the road. The Chargers rely heavily on big plays from their stars as they convert only 40.0% of 3rd down chances and score touchdowns only 57.1% of the time once inside the Red Zone at home. The best part about that is that New England has held road opponents to only a Field Goal in 80% of times their road opponents entered the Red Zone this season. This game comes down to heart and determination and I think the Chargers could be a little shell shocked by the Pats. Give me Brady in a shootout.
The line has been set perfectly by the oddsmakers. This line is going to have bettors torn left and right on which team to take. I wouldn't be surprised if the money ends up being an even 50% on both sides of this game and I say that because the Pats have always been a public favorite when it comes to betting and San Diego is arguable the best team in the NFL this season, they have had two weeks off and they are playing at home which makes it even more enticing to go with them in this game. New England bettors like myself are not jumping off the Tom Brady/Bill Bellichik train that is now 11-1 or something like that in the playoffs while San Diego bettors are more intrigued by the NFL's MVP (LT) and the fact that the Patriots have a lot of key injuries. In the end though, this is New England, this is a playoff game and this is not Denver last January. That was an ugly game for the Pats where Tom Brady could never get things going. As much as this game ressembles that Denver game and the scenario is almost identical, the Pats actually matchup nicely against the Chargers who may be a little too confident heading into this game.
Trend of the Game: Tom Brady is 11-1 SU in the playoffs.
New England 34, San Diego 31
:cheers:
2006 NFL Playoffs Internet ATS Record: 4-2 (+84.00 Units)
2006 NFL Playoffs O/U Predictions Record: 4-1
2006 NFL Regular Season Record: 58-44-6 (-311.80 Units)
*There are my plays. I post information for your use handicapping use only and not your wagering use. Tail if you wish, fade if you wish. You are all capable of making your own decisions.
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NFC Divisional #2
Chicago Bears -9.5 (50 Units)
I know this may sound stupid to say at this point of the season since they made it this far, but does anyone else just have the feeling that Seattle is a not a team that belongs in the FINAL 8? This has nothing to do with Dallas or anyone else being here but the Seahawks just don't have what it takes to compete with a team like the Bears, let alone most other teams in the playoffs. Okay, they got their big win last week at home in a playoff game but their life-span in these playoffs is already hanging by a shoe lace and I sincerely think that the Seahawks will have that shoe lace cutoff in this game and it will happen often and early. The last time these two teams met, Shaun Alexander was already out with an injury and the Seahawks got their asses handed to them 37-6 on Sunday Night Footbal back in October. You can argue all you want that Alexander would have a difference in that game but the bottom line remains that it was a 31 point loss and the Seahawks looked as lost and confused as anyone has all year against the Bears defense. The only road game that somewhat impressed me was the Seahawks win in Denver this year but after the Broncos showed everyone how they are not much more than pretenders this year, my opinion has somewhat changed. Seattle was 2-6 ATS on the road this year and this is pretty much out of their element. The Seahawks come into this game averaging 19.3 points per game on the road this season as they have averaged 295.4 total yards and 5.1 yards per play in those games. Chicago's defense is very good as they have allowed only 16.4 points per home game this season on 282.3 total yards of offense and only 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Shaun Alexander is averaging 69.2 rushing yards per road game as opposed to a whopping 110.0 rushing yards per home game. Alexander has only 2 touchdowns and has lost 3 fumbles on the road. The only good news for him is that the Bears are allowing 4.3 yards per carry at home but that goes on only 102.3 rushing yards per game at Soldier Field. In the air, QB Matt Hasselbeck looked completely lost in the first meeting with the Bears and I don't see how that would change. He is completing 61.4% of his passes on the road for 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. However, the Bears defense has allowed opposing visiting teams to complete only 54.8% of their passes for only 5.2 yards per carry this season. Seattle's offensive line often has problems protecting Hasselbeck as he has been sacked a whopping 19 times in only 6 road games and the line has allowed 22 total sacks on the road. Chicago's defense is relentless and they had 23 sacks at home this season and 14 interceptions in Soldier Field. The Seahawks are averaging less than 10 points per first half this season and if they can't get going early in this game, the lights could be out in not time. Chicago's defense is going to win this game for them and the offense won't have to do much as has been the case all season long.
The Chicago Bears are a quite possibly the best team in the NFL right now but that is as debatable as it gets and I say that because of how week the NFC appears to be. Would the Bears be where they are had they been in the AFC this season? Possibly. They were 2-2 against AFC teams this year so it's hard to tell. The Bears only lost one game to an NFC team all year long which is quite impressive. I also like the fact that the Bears are 5-3 ATS at home this year and winning at Soldier Field has become next to impossible for most visiting teams from the NFC. As poorly as Rex Grossman and the Bears offense has played this season, you have to look at the good and you have to anticipate that you will see the Bears best effort in what is their most important game in years. Sure they struggled but it's time to turn things up a notch. And for those who keep saying that the Bears played like shit towards the end of the year, I find that hard to understand when they won 6 of their last 8 games this year. It's not easy for a team that was rolling so high to get excited to play against Detroit and Tampa Bay (both ATS losses for the Bears) near the end of the season. The Bears come into this game averaging a whopping 28.6 points per home game this season on 332.4 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. Not spectacular but you have to understand that their defense will get them the ball back with good field position. Seattle's defense is allowing 22.5 points per road game this season and they have allowed 353.8 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Bears RB's are not the most prolific in the NFL but they grind things out and have averaged 123.4 rushing yards per home game on 3.8 yards per carry this season. Seattle's defense has allowed 137.1 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.4 yards per carry and if Thomas Jones wants, he can have another big game on the ground in this one. In the air, QB Rex Grossman has been under big time criticism but let's give him a chance to lead the team he has led all season long. Grossman is completing 56.3% of his passes at home for 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Throwing the ball into defenders hands has been Grossman's problem all year long but Seattle do not have many opportunistic players in their secondary. They have intercepted only 4 passes in eight road games this season and if Grossman can get some protection in this game, he'll have a fine game. Seattle is allowing opponents to complete 61.5% of their passes for 7.3 yards per pass attempt on the road. Seattle is easily beatable with the long pass and the Bears should be able to stretch things out. Like I said earlier, we don't even need Grossman to have a good game because the defense will make enough big plays and Devon Hester will lead the Bears to good field position on several drives. I think the Bears run away with this one.
I don't know what to make of the line for this game. The -9.5 seems to be designed to attract action on the Bears because they are holding the number below the 10 mark. However, oddsmakers also know that a lot of people are saying that this is too many points for a Divisional playoff game like this and a lot of people think the Seahawks are going to get the job done in this one. As a matter of fact, more than 60% of the public is shockingly on Seattle in this game. What is misleading for most is the way the Bears played in their last 3-4 games of the regular season. Having already clinched home field advantage through the playoffs, why should the Bears care to be impressive against the Lions, Bucs and Packers? They sure as heck didn't. This game is different and the Bears are the real deal in big games. The spread may seem high and all but Chicago's defense is just too good and believe it or not, this defense is the reason they are 13-3 on the year. Don't be misled by the last 3-4 games the Bears played this season.
Trend of the Game: Seattle is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus NFC opponents.
Chicago 34, Seattle 10
AFC Divisional #2
New England Patriots +4.5 (50 Units)
The New England Patriots and Tom Brady continue to impress and continue to cash in for us bettors when it comes to playoff games like last week's -9.5 over the New York Jets. The key to this game though is to avoid a repeat performance of last year's playoff run. Last January, the Patriots beat Jacksonville 28-3 at home in the Wildcard round of the playoffs before heading to Denver and losing 27-13. The Pats turned the ball over 5 times in that game last year and the only lead they ever had was 3-0 in that game. However, that was then and this is now. The difference between last year's Patriots team and this one is that the Pats were 5-3 ATS on the road last year while this year they are a very impressive 7-1 ATS on the road having lost only a game to the Dolphins earlier in the year. Impressive to say the least. The Patriots were made underdogs in three games this year by the oddsmaker and all three times the Pats responded with big wins in Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Tennessee. They actually won those games by a combined 45 total points. The Pats come into this game averaging 27.5 points per road game this season and they have done that by averaging 349.5 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. San Diego's defense has allowed only 16.5 points per home game this season and they have also allowed 305.8 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, RB Corey Dillon had 8 touchdowns on the road while not fumbling one single time. The Pats average 136.9 rushing yards per road game on 4.4 yards per carry this season. San Diego has allowed only 93.4 rushing yards per home game but they have also allowed 4.1 yards per carry in those games. In the air, Brady is completing 62.3% for 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 15 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions (compared to 9 interceptions at home). San Diego's defense is allowing visting teams to complete 56.9% of their passes at home this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. That actually works quite nicely for New England because 11 players have 10 or more receptions on that team and short effective passes is their thing. Brady will have to work quickly to avoid the Chargers pass rush. The Patriots are converting an impressive 47.0% of 3rd down chances on the road this year and scoring touchdowns 72.4% of the time in the Red Zone in those games. Kevin Faulk could be the x-factor in this game because he has returned some big punts on the road this year and averages 13.2 yards per return away from home. If anyone can keep up with the Chargers, it's mot definitely Tom Brady and the Patriots.
The San Diego Chargers knew they would have to pick their poison between the Colts and the Patriots and although the prospect of either the Jets and/or Chiefs winning last weekend was probably what this team was really hoping for, they now have to settle for a Divisional home game against the best playoff team we have seen in several years. The Colts would have probably been a much better matchup for the Chargers because the Chargers actually have the offense to beat Manning unlike the Chiefs or the Ravens who both proved to be nothing but a bunch of pretenders. As well as San Diego has played all season long (they have now won 10 straight games), you cannot forget about their losses to Kansas City and to Baltimore...their only two losses of the year. In one game, the Chiefs decided to shoot things out with the Chargers and they won. In the other game, Baltimore played pure defense and won on a big play late in the game. What you really have to look at here is who the Chargers have played against. In their 10 game win streak, they played against only two playoff bound teams and that was Kansas City and Seattle as they won by a combined total of only 14 points. As a matter of fact, San Diego played against only 3 playoff bound teams all year long, losing twice and winning twice but going 1-3 ATS in the process. The Chargers come into this game averaging 31.1 points per home game this year for 379.5 total yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. New England however have allowed only 13.5 points per road game this season and they have done it by allowing only 284.0 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, there is no doubt LT is the best RB in the world. Tomlinson has rushed for 117.4 yards per home game on 5.8 yards per carry but surprisingly enough, New England has allowed only 86.9 rushing yards per road game and only 3.9 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Philip Rivers is playing in his first ever playoff game. Rivers has completed 62.1% of his passes at home this season for 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. New England's secondary is without Harrison once again but they can compensate and have no problems. The Pats have allowed their road opponents to complete only 56.1% of their passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The Pats have 25 sacks on the road this season and they also have 8 interceptions to go with that. This game could essentially come down to who makes the biggest mistake. Tomlinson has not fumbled at home all year, Dillon has not fumbled on the road all year. Rivers has thrown 5 interceptions at home, Brady only 3 on the road. The Chargers rely heavily on big plays from their stars as they convert only 40.0% of 3rd down chances and score touchdowns only 57.1% of the time once inside the Red Zone at home. The best part about that is that New England has held road opponents to only a Field Goal in 80% of times their road opponents entered the Red Zone this season. This game comes down to heart and determination and I think the Chargers could be a little shell shocked by the Pats. Give me Brady in a shootout.
The line has been set perfectly by the oddsmakers. This line is going to have bettors torn left and right on which team to take. I wouldn't be surprised if the money ends up being an even 50% on both sides of this game and I say that because the Pats have always been a public favorite when it comes to betting and San Diego is arguable the best team in the NFL this season, they have had two weeks off and they are playing at home which makes it even more enticing to go with them in this game. New England bettors like myself are not jumping off the Tom Brady/Bill Bellichik train that is now 11-1 or something like that in the playoffs while San Diego bettors are more intrigued by the NFL's MVP (LT) and the fact that the Patriots have a lot of key injuries. In the end though, this is New England, this is a playoff game and this is not Denver last January. That was an ugly game for the Pats where Tom Brady could never get things going. As much as this game ressembles that Denver game and the scenario is almost identical, the Pats actually matchup nicely against the Chargers who may be a little too confident heading into this game.
Trend of the Game: Tom Brady is 11-1 SU in the playoffs.
New England 34, San Diego 31
:cheers:
