MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 54-41-6 (-271.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 45-32-4 (-153 .50 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-7-2 (-79.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-3-1 (+117.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-2 (-335.00 Units)
*There are my plays. I post information for your use handicapping use only and not your wagering use. Tail if you wish, fade if you wish. You are all capable of making your own decisions.
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Monday, December 25
Philadelphia Eagles +7 (25 Units)
The Philadelphia Eagles season was pretty much over when Donovan McNabb went down with his big injury and not many people gave them a chance to come all the way back and be in playoff contention. Most people never gave them a chance before the season started but the Eagles have fought off all adversity and are now one win away from pretty much making the playoffs in the very weak NFC. I actually think Dallas wins this game but it won't be by more than field goal which is why I think the points are a very good idea here. The Eagles have now won three straight games and Jeff Garcia's career has been re-surrected out of nowhere. Beating the Giants, Redskins and Panthers in three straight games is nothing really special when you look at the big picture of things because neither team is making the playoffs this year but a win is a win in the NFL and the Eagles have won those games by a combined total of 19 points. The Eagles are now 3-1 since Garcia took over as the starter with their only loss coming in his first game against Indianapolis. I don't know why but this offense is responding well to Garcia and the defense is gaining momentum. The Eagles are averaging 28.0 points per game in their last three games as they have averaged 349.0 total yards per game and 6.2 yards per play in those games. Dallas has very good defense but they have been horrendous lately, allowing 30.0 points per game game in their last three games for a whopping 436.0 total yards and 6.7 yards per play. On the ground, RB Brian Westbrook has quietly rushed for 1000+ yards this season and 7 touchdowns. The Eagles average 119.3 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games. The Cowboys used to have a good run defense but in their last three games they have allowed 137.3 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry and if the passing game can get going, Westbrook should make some plays. In the air, Jeff Garcia is completing 61.1% of his passes the last three games for 7.7 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown only 1 interception the last three games and been sacked only 3 times. The Cowboys defense is allowing their last three QB opponents to complete 67.0% of their passes for 8.7 yards per pass attempt. Their pass rush has seriously dimished over the last month or so and the secondary is not making as many big plays as they used to. The most impressive part of the Eagles is that they are converting 3rd downs at 40.5% in their last three games while the Cowboys are allowing 53.8% of 3rd downs to be converted. The Eagles are also scoring touchdowns 75.0% of the time once in the Red Zone the last three games and I see them having the same type of success. This is a big game for Andy Reid and the Eagles and I think they get it done and show that they can win without McNabb.
The Dallas Cowboys are most definitely one of the TOP 10 teams in the NFL but they are no longer one of the best teams like I thought they were back in November. Tony Romo has been oustanding since taking over at quarterback but the defense is faltering a lot more right now. The Cowboys have now won four of their last five games and have been on quite the roll since beating the Colts. This is a revenge game and as much as it looks easy for the Cowboys to come out here and spank the Eagles, you and me both know it won't be as easy as that and if the defense doesn't show up again, Garcia and the Eagles are going to make them a pay a lot more than the Falcons did. You also have to keep in mind that the Eagles defense allows a lot of yardage but they make some big plays and they have a way of coming up huge when they most need to. What would concern me if I was on the Cowboys today is the fact that Tony Romo has yet to play against this Eagles defense and I am sure Drew Bledsoe can tell him how unpleasant it must be. Bledsoe threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 7 times against the Eagles earlier this season and Romo can expect some of the same today. The Cowboys average 26.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done it by averaging 354.7 total yards per game and 6.5 yards per play in those games. Philadelphia's defense has stepped things up a notch as of late and they are allowing 21.7 points per game in their last three games and also allowing 383.3 total yards per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Julius Jones and Laurence Maroney have rushed for 106.7 total yards on 4.8 yards per carry the last three games while the Eagles have a weak run defense and allow 135.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry in their last three games. The only issue I have with this is that The Tuna is too stubborn to run a lot as the Cowboys have rushed only 22.3 times per game in their last three games. In the air, QB Tony Romo has completed 60.4% of his passes for 7.8 yards per pass attempt the last three games but he has been sacked 6 times and has thrown 5 interceptions in those games. Considering that the Eagles tagged Bledsoe 7 times in the first game and picked him off 3 times, I would be concerned if I was on the Cowboys. The Eagles defense has 6 interceptions the last three weeks and they are going to bring some big time pressure to the rookie QB in this game. Their last three opponents have converted only 34.2% of 3rd down tries against the Eagles and their Red Zone defense is allowing touchdowns only 36.4% of the time in their last three games as well. The Cowboys have fumbled 6 times in their last three games which can't be good considering Philly has forced a fumble in each of their last three games. I like the Cowboys a lot but I think they are underestimating the Eagles and Jeff Garcia and if they get too cocky early, the Eagles defense is going to be all over them. LIIIIIIIIITTTTTO!
I had to pick a side or take the OVER. I do think this game goes OVER but I also really liked the Eagles in this matchup even though this is a revenge spot for the Cowboys. Andy Reid is a stubborn coach but he is a very good December coach when the team is in playoff contention much like Bill Bellichik with the Pats. Both these guys know how and when to win games and that time is right now. It's time for some of you Eagles fans to admit it. A few weeks ago I said that McNabb's injury was a really good thing because the Eagles need new blood and Jeff Garcia is proving to be that good new blood. It's not that McNabb is a bad quarterback or that he hasn't done good things but it's like the Toronto Maple Leafs in hockey. Mats Sundin is a great hockey player and a great captain but the Leafs have never reached the finals with him after 8-9 years much like the Eagles have never won the Super Bowl with McNabb even though they have been very good. The Eagles are the real deal and they're playing too well to go against them. They may not win this game but it's gonna be close.
Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 17-5 straight in their last 22 December games when still in playoff contention.
Dallas 28, Philadelphia 22
New York Jets +2.5 (50 Units)
I am going with my second Christmas Day road team and there is a reason for that. It's really nice and all to be home for the Holidays and get to play at home while spending time with your families but in the end, the road team had to spend Christmas Eve and Christmas morning in a hotel room which makes winning this game even that more important. You don't want to have spend that time in the hotel to come out here and lose because these guys lost precious time with their kids and with their families so this game has a purpose. The Jets are still very much in contention for one of the AFC Wild Cards as they are 8-6 and need to win this game. Like I said before, the AFC wildcards are almost 100% surely going to go to a team with 10 wins because this conference is so competitive and these teams are all pretty much even this year. Having beatup on the Packers, Vikings and Texans is nothing to get too crazy about but as I mentioned before for the Eagles, a win is a win and the Jets are winning games. I think the Jets should definitely be favored in this game and I am not too sure why they are not. They are averaging a whopping 25.7 points per game in their last three games and have done it by averaging 369.7 total yards and 5.5 yards per play in those games. Miami's defense is good and will be good as usual as they have allowed only 15.0 points per game in their last three games by allowing 276.0 total yards and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, the Jets are averaging 126.7 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry as Cedric Houston will be the featured. The Dolphins are allowing 124.3 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry in their last three game so if Houston can get as much as 50 rushing yards in this game, the passing game should have a chance here. In the air, QB Chad Pennington is completing 69.1% of his passes the last three weeks and he is averaging 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Pennington has been sacked 6 times the last three weeks and thrown 5 interceptions so I would be nice if he was careful with the ball today. Miami's defense is allowing their last three QB opponents to complete 62.3% of their passes for 6.6 yards per pass attempt in their last three games but have made up for it with their 12 sacks. However, if you want to beat Pennington and the Jets, you have to force him to throw the ball into your defense's hands. Miami has a big fat 0 interceptions the last three games so that doesn't look too good. The Jets are converting an incredible 50.0% of their 3rd down chances the last three games while Miami is allowing their last three opponents to convert 47.6% of their 3rd downs in the last three games. The Jets are going to win this game on the kick returning abilities of Justin Miller who has returned 2 to the house for touchdowns. The Dolphins are allowing 28.6 yards per kickoff return the last three games which is unacceptable against Miller. He will make them pay more than once in this game.
The Miami Dolphins were on quite the roll in November having won four straight games but it all fell apart in their loss to Jacksonville earlier in December and it fell apart even more when the Dolphins went to Buffalo last week and got blown out. All hope of making the playoffs is now gone which is why I think we are going to see a big time dropoff in the attitude on this team. The Dolphins have done a great job under Nick Saban this year considering they had to make Joey Harrington the starter and had to go through several key injuries on the year. I was a big fan of betting on the Dolphins but they are obviously a very streaky team and if their focus is off, they are going to have no chance whatsoever in this game. Miami did beat the Patriots 21-0 at home the last time they played here but that could be the only reason anyone would bet on a team that was just eliminated from the playoffs. The Dolphins made it a very close game against the Jets in New York back in October but their late comeback was not enough and the offense was too conservative to win the game. The Dolphins have now lost four of their last five games against the Jets and that streak probably continues today. The Dolphins are averaging a pathetic 10.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done it by averaging only 278.7 total yards per game and 4.6 yards per play in those games. The Jets defense has allowed only 18.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done it by allowing only 325.3 total yards of offense and only 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, RB Ronnie Brown should be back for this game but he will probably be rusty and won't help the Dolphins run for more than the 103.7 rushing yards per game they have averaged in their last three games. The Jets allow only 128.3 rushing yards per game in their last three but they do allow some big runs and allow 5.2 yards per carry in this game. Unless Brown picks up where he left off, the Dolphins won't be able to exploit that weakness in the Jets. In the air, QB Joey Harrington is completing only 56.2% of his passes the last three weeks and he is averaging only 5.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. Harrington has been sacked 7 times in those games and thrown 4 interceptions. That's not good news for this game because the Jets are allowing only 56.9% of passes to be completed against them the last three games for only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. They have recorded 8 sacks in those games and have 3 interceptions to go along with it. If they can bring some pressure on Harrington in this game, he is going to make about a thousand mistakes and cost his team the game. The Dolphins are due to fumble the ball sooner or later and this is a very bad spot for them to play a meaningless game on Christmas Night when they have been partying all day while the Jets have been getting ready and focused.
I just don't see how the Dolphins can show up for this game having spent Christmas at home with their families this morning and now having to come out and play a useless football games. Their loss last week to the Bills did them in for the year and the Dolphins are a little demoralized right now. The Jets are on a big time roll as of late and it was the same Bills that tried to ruin their season. I think the Jets have played well enough this year that they can have a good game here. It's Christmas and it's sad enough that some of these guys on the Jets had to be without their families and spent Christmas in a hotel room. That makes this game all that more important to win because coming out here would be useless if you're not going to win the game. X-Mas is going to have the Jets more focused then ever and in thier biggest game of the year, I think they can come in and make some noise against a Dolphins team that probably doesn't care about this game. Even if the Jets win, it won't come without a fight from the Dolphins. They have too much pride for that.
Trend of the Game: Miami is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites.
NY Jets 22, Miami 20
:cheers:
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 45-32-4 (-153 .50 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-7-2 (-79.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-3-1 (+117.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-2 (-335.00 Units)
*There are my plays. I post information for your use handicapping use only and not your wagering use. Tail if you wish, fade if you wish. You are all capable of making your own decisions.
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Monday, December 25
Philadelphia Eagles +7 (25 Units)
The Philadelphia Eagles season was pretty much over when Donovan McNabb went down with his big injury and not many people gave them a chance to come all the way back and be in playoff contention. Most people never gave them a chance before the season started but the Eagles have fought off all adversity and are now one win away from pretty much making the playoffs in the very weak NFC. I actually think Dallas wins this game but it won't be by more than field goal which is why I think the points are a very good idea here. The Eagles have now won three straight games and Jeff Garcia's career has been re-surrected out of nowhere. Beating the Giants, Redskins and Panthers in three straight games is nothing really special when you look at the big picture of things because neither team is making the playoffs this year but a win is a win in the NFL and the Eagles have won those games by a combined total of 19 points. The Eagles are now 3-1 since Garcia took over as the starter with their only loss coming in his first game against Indianapolis. I don't know why but this offense is responding well to Garcia and the defense is gaining momentum. The Eagles are averaging 28.0 points per game in their last three games as they have averaged 349.0 total yards per game and 6.2 yards per play in those games. Dallas has very good defense but they have been horrendous lately, allowing 30.0 points per game game in their last three games for a whopping 436.0 total yards and 6.7 yards per play. On the ground, RB Brian Westbrook has quietly rushed for 1000+ yards this season and 7 touchdowns. The Eagles average 119.3 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games. The Cowboys used to have a good run defense but in their last three games they have allowed 137.3 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry and if the passing game can get going, Westbrook should make some plays. In the air, Jeff Garcia is completing 61.1% of his passes the last three games for 7.7 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown only 1 interception the last three games and been sacked only 3 times. The Cowboys defense is allowing their last three QB opponents to complete 67.0% of their passes for 8.7 yards per pass attempt. Their pass rush has seriously dimished over the last month or so and the secondary is not making as many big plays as they used to. The most impressive part of the Eagles is that they are converting 3rd downs at 40.5% in their last three games while the Cowboys are allowing 53.8% of 3rd downs to be converted. The Eagles are also scoring touchdowns 75.0% of the time once in the Red Zone the last three games and I see them having the same type of success. This is a big game for Andy Reid and the Eagles and I think they get it done and show that they can win without McNabb.
The Dallas Cowboys are most definitely one of the TOP 10 teams in the NFL but they are no longer one of the best teams like I thought they were back in November. Tony Romo has been oustanding since taking over at quarterback but the defense is faltering a lot more right now. The Cowboys have now won four of their last five games and have been on quite the roll since beating the Colts. This is a revenge game and as much as it looks easy for the Cowboys to come out here and spank the Eagles, you and me both know it won't be as easy as that and if the defense doesn't show up again, Garcia and the Eagles are going to make them a pay a lot more than the Falcons did. You also have to keep in mind that the Eagles defense allows a lot of yardage but they make some big plays and they have a way of coming up huge when they most need to. What would concern me if I was on the Cowboys today is the fact that Tony Romo has yet to play against this Eagles defense and I am sure Drew Bledsoe can tell him how unpleasant it must be. Bledsoe threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 7 times against the Eagles earlier this season and Romo can expect some of the same today. The Cowboys average 26.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done it by averaging 354.7 total yards per game and 6.5 yards per play in those games. Philadelphia's defense has stepped things up a notch as of late and they are allowing 21.7 points per game in their last three games and also allowing 383.3 total yards per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Julius Jones and Laurence Maroney have rushed for 106.7 total yards on 4.8 yards per carry the last three games while the Eagles have a weak run defense and allow 135.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry in their last three games. The only issue I have with this is that The Tuna is too stubborn to run a lot as the Cowboys have rushed only 22.3 times per game in their last three games. In the air, QB Tony Romo has completed 60.4% of his passes for 7.8 yards per pass attempt the last three games but he has been sacked 6 times and has thrown 5 interceptions in those games. Considering that the Eagles tagged Bledsoe 7 times in the first game and picked him off 3 times, I would be concerned if I was on the Cowboys. The Eagles defense has 6 interceptions the last three weeks and they are going to bring some big time pressure to the rookie QB in this game. Their last three opponents have converted only 34.2% of 3rd down tries against the Eagles and their Red Zone defense is allowing touchdowns only 36.4% of the time in their last three games as well. The Cowboys have fumbled 6 times in their last three games which can't be good considering Philly has forced a fumble in each of their last three games. I like the Cowboys a lot but I think they are underestimating the Eagles and Jeff Garcia and if they get too cocky early, the Eagles defense is going to be all over them. LIIIIIIIIITTTTTO!
I had to pick a side or take the OVER. I do think this game goes OVER but I also really liked the Eagles in this matchup even though this is a revenge spot for the Cowboys. Andy Reid is a stubborn coach but he is a very good December coach when the team is in playoff contention much like Bill Bellichik with the Pats. Both these guys know how and when to win games and that time is right now. It's time for some of you Eagles fans to admit it. A few weeks ago I said that McNabb's injury was a really good thing because the Eagles need new blood and Jeff Garcia is proving to be that good new blood. It's not that McNabb is a bad quarterback or that he hasn't done good things but it's like the Toronto Maple Leafs in hockey. Mats Sundin is a great hockey player and a great captain but the Leafs have never reached the finals with him after 8-9 years much like the Eagles have never won the Super Bowl with McNabb even though they have been very good. The Eagles are the real deal and they're playing too well to go against them. They may not win this game but it's gonna be close.
Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 17-5 straight in their last 22 December games when still in playoff contention.
Dallas 28, Philadelphia 22
New York Jets +2.5 (50 Units)
I am going with my second Christmas Day road team and there is a reason for that. It's really nice and all to be home for the Holidays and get to play at home while spending time with your families but in the end, the road team had to spend Christmas Eve and Christmas morning in a hotel room which makes winning this game even that more important. You don't want to have spend that time in the hotel to come out here and lose because these guys lost precious time with their kids and with their families so this game has a purpose. The Jets are still very much in contention for one of the AFC Wild Cards as they are 8-6 and need to win this game. Like I said before, the AFC wildcards are almost 100% surely going to go to a team with 10 wins because this conference is so competitive and these teams are all pretty much even this year. Having beatup on the Packers, Vikings and Texans is nothing to get too crazy about but as I mentioned before for the Eagles, a win is a win and the Jets are winning games. I think the Jets should definitely be favored in this game and I am not too sure why they are not. They are averaging a whopping 25.7 points per game in their last three games and have done it by averaging 369.7 total yards and 5.5 yards per play in those games. Miami's defense is good and will be good as usual as they have allowed only 15.0 points per game in their last three games by allowing 276.0 total yards and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, the Jets are averaging 126.7 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry as Cedric Houston will be the featured. The Dolphins are allowing 124.3 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry in their last three game so if Houston can get as much as 50 rushing yards in this game, the passing game should have a chance here. In the air, QB Chad Pennington is completing 69.1% of his passes the last three weeks and he is averaging 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Pennington has been sacked 6 times the last three weeks and thrown 5 interceptions so I would be nice if he was careful with the ball today. Miami's defense is allowing their last three QB opponents to complete 62.3% of their passes for 6.6 yards per pass attempt in their last three games but have made up for it with their 12 sacks. However, if you want to beat Pennington and the Jets, you have to force him to throw the ball into your defense's hands. Miami has a big fat 0 interceptions the last three games so that doesn't look too good. The Jets are converting an incredible 50.0% of their 3rd down chances the last three games while Miami is allowing their last three opponents to convert 47.6% of their 3rd downs in the last three games. The Jets are going to win this game on the kick returning abilities of Justin Miller who has returned 2 to the house for touchdowns. The Dolphins are allowing 28.6 yards per kickoff return the last three games which is unacceptable against Miller. He will make them pay more than once in this game.
The Miami Dolphins were on quite the roll in November having won four straight games but it all fell apart in their loss to Jacksonville earlier in December and it fell apart even more when the Dolphins went to Buffalo last week and got blown out. All hope of making the playoffs is now gone which is why I think we are going to see a big time dropoff in the attitude on this team. The Dolphins have done a great job under Nick Saban this year considering they had to make Joey Harrington the starter and had to go through several key injuries on the year. I was a big fan of betting on the Dolphins but they are obviously a very streaky team and if their focus is off, they are going to have no chance whatsoever in this game. Miami did beat the Patriots 21-0 at home the last time they played here but that could be the only reason anyone would bet on a team that was just eliminated from the playoffs. The Dolphins made it a very close game against the Jets in New York back in October but their late comeback was not enough and the offense was too conservative to win the game. The Dolphins have now lost four of their last five games against the Jets and that streak probably continues today. The Dolphins are averaging a pathetic 10.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done it by averaging only 278.7 total yards per game and 4.6 yards per play in those games. The Jets defense has allowed only 18.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done it by allowing only 325.3 total yards of offense and only 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, RB Ronnie Brown should be back for this game but he will probably be rusty and won't help the Dolphins run for more than the 103.7 rushing yards per game they have averaged in their last three games. The Jets allow only 128.3 rushing yards per game in their last three but they do allow some big runs and allow 5.2 yards per carry in this game. Unless Brown picks up where he left off, the Dolphins won't be able to exploit that weakness in the Jets. In the air, QB Joey Harrington is completing only 56.2% of his passes the last three weeks and he is averaging only 5.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. Harrington has been sacked 7 times in those games and thrown 4 interceptions. That's not good news for this game because the Jets are allowing only 56.9% of passes to be completed against them the last three games for only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. They have recorded 8 sacks in those games and have 3 interceptions to go along with it. If they can bring some pressure on Harrington in this game, he is going to make about a thousand mistakes and cost his team the game. The Dolphins are due to fumble the ball sooner or later and this is a very bad spot for them to play a meaningless game on Christmas Night when they have been partying all day while the Jets have been getting ready and focused.
I just don't see how the Dolphins can show up for this game having spent Christmas at home with their families this morning and now having to come out and play a useless football games. Their loss last week to the Bills did them in for the year and the Dolphins are a little demoralized right now. The Jets are on a big time roll as of late and it was the same Bills that tried to ruin their season. I think the Jets have played well enough this year that they can have a good game here. It's Christmas and it's sad enough that some of these guys on the Jets had to be without their families and spent Christmas in a hotel room. That makes this game all that more important to win because coming out here would be useless if you're not going to win the game. X-Mas is going to have the Jets more focused then ever and in thier biggest game of the year, I think they can come in and make some noise against a Dolphins team that probably doesn't care about this game. Even if the Jets win, it won't come without a fight from the Dolphins. They have too much pride for that.
Trend of the Game: Miami is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites.
NY Jets 22, Miami 20
:cheers:
