MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Bowl Record: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-47.60 Units)
Based on the fact that I had a winning season but still came out in the minus, I decided to play each Bowl Game for about the same amount and see if I could get some type of money management control going.
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2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-47.60 Units)
Based on the fact that I had a winning season but still came out in the minus, I decided to play each Bowl Game for about the same amount and see if I could get some type of money management control going.
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Friday, December 22
Rice Owls -4 (10 Units)
You have to feel sorry for the Troy Trojans because they play in the Sunbelt Conference and teams from that Conference don't usually have a clue what they are doing at this time of the year. Sure the Trojans are the 2006 Sun Belt Conference Champions but what does that really mean seeing that several Division I-AA Conferences would have no problems regularly playing and beating teams from the Sunbelt. I mean I can't even start to explain to you how bad teams like Florida International and North Texas are and these are opponents that Troy failed to blow out, keeping them close long enough that they have a chance at the cover. Troy's season opened on an impressive note as they came very close to beating Florida State but now that we know how FSU's season turned out, are you still all that impressed? I'm not. They put up a fight against another so-so team in Georgia Tech but then got blown out by Nebraska and got blown out by UAB of all teams before closing out the season with Conference games. This is going to be Troy's second Bowl Game in school history as they were in the Silicon Valley Bowl in 2004 and lost 34-21 to Northern Illinois as 3 point favorites. The Trojans come into this game averaging only 21.3 points per game this season while averaging 315.3 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play. It is not a secret that Rice doesn't play any defense as they have allowed 32.6 points per game this season on a whopping 417.7 total yards and 6.6 yards per play. On the ground, RB Kenny Cattouse is New Jersey's all-time High School leading rusher and he had a pretty good season. Troy averaged 126.9 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry but will that be enough to exploit a Rice defense that allows 191.2 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry this season? What if the Trojans go down early, will they abandon the run? In the air, QB Omar Haugabook is as shaky as they get. He completed 62.2% of his passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt but threw 17 touchdown passes and 16 interceptions and that's playing in the Sun Belt Conference. He was also sacked a whopping 26 times this season which is not good considering that Rice has a decent pass rush and they managed to get 31 sacks on their season. The Owls allow a whopping 8.3 yards per pass attempt but they can cut down on that by getting to Haugabook early and forcing the mistakes. Rice have forced 28.8 fumbles this season which can't be good for Troy who have lost 12 fumbles on the year. I know Troy can have success running the ball but if they shy away from the run, this game won't last long with turnovers playing a huge factor into this thing. I know how much Troy would love to win this game and I know it doesn't look all that hard when you look at who they are playing against but the Trojans just don't have the right tools to keep up in this game. Yes they played well in some non-conference games this season but the layoff has been long and there might be a small Sunbelt Conference Champions hangover in this game.
Dale Lloyd is why the Rice Owls are in this Bowl Game today according to several players on this Rice team. Lloyd is the freshman DB that died after practice on September 24 and the Owls dedicated their season to Lloyd and they have also dedicated their first Bowl Game in 45 years to their fallen teammate. I know his death is not the biggest reason for their success this season but Rice was being pegged as a one win team again this season and they proved everyone wrong by making it this far. The knock on this team was that they were switching to a passing offense from the option offense and all the players on the Rice team were only capable of playing in the Option offense. Wow, did that turn out to be bogus or what? You have to be impressed by some of the games Rice played this season. They are not your typical 'defense first' kind of team but Todd Graham has done a great job the last few weeks tweaking some issues on defense. Don't forget that Graham was a defensive coordinator at Tulsa for 3 years and co-DC at West Virginia in their turnaround 2002 season. The other knock on this team heading into this Bowl Game is that sure they are 9-3 ATS on the season but they have won only four games by 4 or more points and their wins are usually very close games. The status of QB Chase Clement is the reason why this line is so low but to be honest, I would have no problems taking it at -7 should it skyrocket back up. The Owls average 27.8 points per game this season and they did it by averaging 345.2 total yards of offense on 5.2 yards per play. Troy's defense has allowed 22.7 points per game this season on 344.4 total yards of offense and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB Quinton Smith finally toppled the 1000 rushing yard mark after missing out on it by 92 yards last year. Smith and Clement led this team to 138.7 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry but will have to work hard against a Troy defense allowing 137.1 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry. In the air, whether or not Clement can play is a big factor but his backup QB Joel Armstrong has starting experience and he played in all 12 games this season. Neither QB has a high completion percentage rate but they have combined for 27 touchdown passes, 20 of those to one of the best WR's in the Country (2nd Team All-American) Jarett Dillard. The two QB's also combined for only 9 interceptions on the year which is one interception for every 39.5 pass attempts. Troy has a decent pass rush in Sun Belt play so the key here will be to get Smith going on the ground and opening things up for Dillard. The Owls are ranked #7 in the Country when it comes to turnover margin as they are very good at hanging onto the ball and very good at taking the ball away. Troy is ranked #107 in that department which can't be good for Trojan backers who don't think the fast surface will impact the velocity of some hits. As long as Armstrong or Clement can find a way to get Dillard the ball and as long as Smith can have a decent day, I don't see why Rice can't win this game by at least a touchdown.
Oddsmakers are not giving Rice the respect they deserve because they are not a very well known school or program. The fact of the matter remains that Rice was better than several bigger name programs this season but the respect is just not there. The CUSA vs. Sun Belt matchup almost always warrants a line of -10 or more and I don't see why this year should be any different with or without Chase Clement. The Sunbelt was rated worse than some I-AA Conferences this season. If you look at all the 'Experts' predictions prior to the 2006 season, not one of them has Rice winning more than 1 game this season (that's right, from 1 game to a 7-5 record) and nobody gave a chance. The tragic loss of DB Dale Lloyd impacted this team like nobody could have imagined because he was one of their own and he seems to have given them a boost. The entire season was dedicated to Lloyd and this one will be the icing on the cake.
Trend of the Game: Rice is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games on turf.
Bowl Formula Advantage: Rice +4.86
Rice 30, Troy 22
:cheers:
