MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Bowl Record: 0-1 (-11.00 Units)
2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 0-1 (-11.00 Units)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-47.60 Units)
Based on the fact that I had a winning season but still came out in the minus, I decided to play each Bowl Game for about the same amount and see if I could get some type of money management control going.
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2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 0-1 (-11.00 Units)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-47.60 Units)
Based on the fact that I had a winning season but still came out in the minus, I decided to play each Bowl Game for about the same amount and see if I could get some type of money management control going.
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Thursday, December 21
BYU Cougars -3 (10 Units)
The BYU Cougars have not won a Bowl Game since their 19-15 win over Kansas State in 1996. However, I would like to immediately point out that this is the first time in God knows how many years that Vegas oddsmakers have thought that BYU deserves to be favored in a Bowl Game. I don't want to go as far as saying that this is a home game for the Cougars because it's far from it but the Cougar faithful have swallowed up most of the tickets for this thing and the atmosphere could be close to that of a home game. Anyways, do you not all feel more comfortable betting on a Mormon team playing in Vegas than you do on a bunch of guys who have probably been partying most of the week? I mean it made no difference in 2005 when BYU lost to a very good Cal team 35-28 but they did steal a very late cover in that game and I would like to think that they will pick up right where they left off. BYU was 6-6 last season but are now 10-2 heading into this Bowl Game. This is their best record since 2001 and Bronco Mendenhall has done a decent job with this team. BYU beat Tulsa by 25 points (nobody else did that this year), they beat TCU on the road by 14 points (nobody has done that in maybe 5-6 years or maybe more) and they won all their games by an average of 26.7 points this season (not sure many teams in the Country can say they did that). The Cougars come into this Bowl Game averaging 36.7 points per game on the year while averaging a whopping 458.6 total yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. Oregon's defense has allowed 25.6 points per game this season and they have done it on only 303.3 total yards per game and 4.9 yards per play. The reason their points allowed total is so high is because they have turned the ball over 2.5 times per game this season. On the ground, BYU RB Curtis Brown rushed for 890 yards and the team rushed for 139.9 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry. Oregon's D-Line sucks and they allowed 149.7 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB John Beck completed 70.4% of his passes for 9.5 yards per pass attempt while throwing 30 TD passes and only 6 interceptions. Over his four year career at BYU, Beck passed for 10646 career yards and 77 career TD's with only 32 INT's. The Ducks bring good pressure off the line but BYU allowed only 14 sacks on Beck this season which is impressive. Oregon's pass defense is acutally their strength this season as they have allowed a 54.1% completion rate and allowed only 5.9 yards per pass attempt. They have 13 interceptions on the year but once again, Beck rarely throws interceptions. Now I know the Cougars didn't play against many great teams this season but they were impressive in almost all their games. Turnovers and missed opportunities screwed them in their two losses but the Cougars seem well prepared for this game and I don't think the turnover-prone Ducks can hange with them in all four quarters.
The Oregon Ducks know all about the BYU Cougars because Offensive Coordinator Gary Crowton was Head Coach at BYU before Bronco Mendenhall took over and Crowton is the one who recruited most of the current BYU roster. Will that make a differen in this game? I don't really think it will but let's wait and see about that. The Ducks started off their season 4-0 and although the OU game was as controversial as it gets, I really thought the Ducks were for real and I thought they would be the ones challenging for the PAC 10 Title this season. Not the case. The Ducks lost their next game by 21 points against Cal but quickly erased all memories of that by beating UCLA 30-20. However, it was their loss to Wazzou the following week that changed their season. Counting the loss to Washington State, the Ducks 2-4 the remainder of the year with their only wins coming at home versus I-AA Portland State and versus Washington on HomeComing. So Oregon's only wins this season came against a 1-11 Stanford team, a 4-8 Fresno State team, a cheap win over Oklahoma, a 7-5 Arizona State team, a 7-5 UCLA team, a Division I-AA team and a 5-7 Washington team. Not impressive at all. The Ducks are averaging a nice 31.3 points per game this season and they have done it on 436.4 total yards and 5.9 yards per play. That's almost a full yard less per play than Oregon. BYU's defense has allowed only 15.3 points per game this season on 324.1 total yards and 4.9 yards per play. The reason their points allowed total is so low is because they are very good at creating turnovers (2.1 per game this season). On the ground, RB Jonathan Stewart is a stud and the Oregon ground game is averaging 189.2 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per carry this season. BYU's run defense is allowing 115.8 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry this season but I don't know how much running Oregon can do if they go down early. In the air, we should see both QB's Dennis Dixon and Brady Leaf who combined to complete 60.2% of their passes for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 17 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. BYU's pass defense is not the most talented but they play with big time heart as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete only 55.7% of their passes for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt this season. They have intercepted 15 passes and forced 20 fumbles. Seeing that Oregon has fumbled 25 times this season, I would say BYU is going to be making some big plays here. WR Jaison Williams is a future star in the PAC 10 but the problem is here that the coaching staff doesn't really know who can get him the ball and neither QB has been able to throw consistently enough this season to named the definite starter. It's nice to be able to run the way the Ducks run but Oregon's passing attack is hardly good enough to keep up in a shootout so I say the Ducks go down early and never recover.
This game means too much to one of the most underrated QB/RB duo in college football in John Beck/Curtis Brown. Both are playing their last collegiate games and although that meant diddly squat for Garrett Wolfe the other night, this is not the same case. BYU has suffered more than 10 years of Bowl futility and the critics have yet to see them win or beat a big program school (they barely lost to Arizona and BC this year). I actually like Oregon a lot as a team but they disappointed me more than once this season and their inconsistency is something I just can't place money on. Oregon lost their Bowl Game to the Sooners last year coming off a great season so I don't see how they would care about playing against an underrated BYU team in this game coming off a very mediocre/up-and-down season. I'll be honest, I have BYU ranked as the #10 team in the Country right now. BYU is the most underrated team in the Country and tonight they show why.
Trend of the Game: BYU is 8-0 ATS in their last eight night games.
Bowl Formula Advantage: BYU +2.09
BYU 45, Oregon 20
:cheers:
