MistaFlava's FRIDAY BOWL FIVE-PACK ***Power Selections*** (Writeups and Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

2006 CFB Bowl Record: 5-7 (-$6800)
2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 4-5 (-$6800)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-$4700)

Once again, another bad bowl day for me. We are down to the do or die time in the Bowl Season and I will only be releasing $1000 plays on most games and $5000 plays on other games. Each unit worth $1000.

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Music City Bowl​

Kentucky Wildcats +11.5 (10 Units)​

The Kentucky Wildcats make it look like I am a dog lover in the Bowl Season and although I do admit to liking dogs a lot, that is definitely not the reason I am taking the Wildcats in this spot. The bottom line is...and I could end my writeup right here...that Clemson is not 10 points better than Kentucky and that is why I am taking the Wildcats. The Wildcats went from 3-8 last season to 7-5 this season and that's while playing in the very tough SEC. Not only that, this is the first time the Wildcats play in a Bowl game since 1999 and this program should be jacked up about a very bright future. Rich Brooks is not the best of Bowl Game coaches (he is 1-3 lifetime in Bowl Games, most of those as head coach of Oregon) but the situation is different and everyone is calling the Wildcats underdogs. I don't know that there was a hotter team that Kentucky after their BYE week on October 21. Following the well deserved time off, the Wildcats came back from the break and beat Mississippi State on the road and followed that with a huge program changing 24-20 Homecoming win over Georgia. They then followed that up with a spanking of Vanderbilt and then squeaked out a win over ULM. In their season finale, Kentucky almost beat Tennessee and God knows what would have happened had they done it. The Wildcats are averaging 26.6 points per game this season (highest since 2003) and they have done it by averaging 372.5 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. Clemson's defense has allowed only 15.2 points per game this season and they have done it by allowing only 270.1 total yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. On the ground, RB Rafael Little has led this team to only 98.5 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry but he averages 5.0 yards per carry himself. Clemson's run defense is allowing 103.3 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry this season so I suggest keeping things in the air as a good idea. QB Andre Woodson is the real deal and this is his audition for NFL scouts. He is completing 62.4% of his passes for 8.2 yards per pass attempt with a whopping 28 touchdown passes and only 7 interceptions. The offensive line is weak so Woodson has to be careful against a very good Clemson pass rush. However, he has developped into quite the player under Brooks and good decision making is his forte. The Wildcats are #5 in the Country when it comes to turnover margin and they have played mistake-free football most of the season. As long as Woodson can hookup with Keenan Burton and Dicky Lyons Jr., he should take full control of this game. Clemson's defense collapsed in the season final and I like that fact that Kentucky comes into this game on a 4-1 ATS and SU run because this could be a stepping stone win for the football program.

The Clemson Tigers were very much part of National Title contender talks at about the midway part of this season. They had made me tons of cash, opening the year on a 6-2 ATS run but something went terribly wrong on a THURSDAY NIGHT LIGHTS edition of ESPN football when the Tigers took their show on the road and headed into Virginia Tech to play a very tough game. I don't think the Tigers know what hit them to this day because after getting spanked by Buddy Foster and his Hokies defense, the Tigers went on to lose to Maryland the following week and lost to South Carolina in their season finale after barely beating NC State the week before. The Tigers pretty much gave up on the year after that loss and I don't know how most of these guys are to care about a very early game right after the Christmas break. After scoring 30+ points in six of their first eight games of the season, Clemson has since scored a high of 28 points and they have not eclipsed the 30+ point mark since. Could it be that anyone who plays against Buddy Foster's defense never quite recovers from all the damages? It could be but it could also be that Clemson got a reality check in that game and they still can't get over it. The Tigers are averaging a whopping 33.8 points per game this season for 411.7 total yards of offense per game and 6.7 yards per play. There is no doubt that this team can play when they want to but they haven't wanted to since the loss Virginia Tech. Kentucky's defense is allowing 29.1 points per game this season on 457.7 total yards of offense and 6.7 yards per play. That seems quite high and it is but they are well rested and ready to go. On the ground, Clemson is averaging 225.2 rushing yards per game this season and they have done it by running for 5.7 yards per pass attempt on the year. Kentucky's run defense has struggled all year allowing 5.0 yards per carry but the question remains about how much RB's CJ Spiller and James Davis really care about this game. In the air, QB Will Proctor looked great earlier this year but he has since cooled off big time and is making more and more mistakes as the season rolls along. He is completing 60.4% of his passes this season for 7.9 yards per pass attempt but only 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. I find it quite funny that Andre Woodson is outdoing Proctor in the passing game this year...who woulda thunk it anyways? Kentucky don't have a much of a pass rush but they do hold opponents to 57.2% completion rate this season and they have allowed a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt. As long as they can cut down on the big yardage gains by Clemson, the defense is going to have to force turnovers via either fumble or via telephone. The Tigers have plenty of weapons in the arsenal for this game but Bowden and the boys sound like they just want out of this place and Kentucky will make sure they punch their ticket right back home. Clemson have fumbled 28 times this season and that can't be good news when you are about to play against the #5 in the Country ranked turnover margin team. Clemson has not covered a spread since October 21, 2006 and I don't see why they would start it in this Bowl Game.

Kentucky QB Andre Woodson is considering this his NFL audition. Woodson feels he is good enough to leave and join the boys of Sunday. For anyone concerned about betting on what is usually known as a shitty football program, the Wildcats did beat the crap out of Central Michigan this year and they also beat Georgia in the programs biggest win in years. Rich Brooks has this program on the big time rise with big time expectations. Combine that with the fact that Kentucky finished the year on a 4-1 roll and the fact that Clemson probably can't wait for this game to be over, and we are going to have a thriller on our hands. Woodson is the real deal and this is going to be an inspired bunch who are eager to win the programs first Bowl Game since the 1984 Hall of Fame Bowl where they beat Wisconsin as 3 point underdogs. Clemson looked uninspired last year against Colorado with all the off-field distractions like the arrest of Duane Coleman, I have a feeling Clemson gets a little bit lazy in this one.

Trend of the Game: Kentucky is 1-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.


Kentucky 27, Clemson 25
​

 

[MistaFlava]

Sun Bowl​

Oregon State Beavers -3 (10 Units)​

The Missouri Tigers are probably going to have most of the fan contingent in this game and does that surprise anybody considering the game in in Texas (not that far from Missouri)? Not at all. The question here is...have the Tigers recovered from the flu bug which had everyone sick all week and which hampered almost all their practice efforts. We all know how important practice time is for Bowl Game and the team that usually practices the most, comes out on top in the Bowl Game. From what I heard, more than 20 players, coaches and children who made the trip to El Pase all got sick. Regardless, the illness is gone now and all the players are going to be ready to go. Missouri is coming off a very good 8-4 season which was a one game improvement on their 2005 campaign. Prior to the season, most experts called for them to make a run at the Big 12 title because their defense was going to be much stronger than the 29.2 points per game they allowed in 2005. Well the Tigers sure as hell lived up to that and cut the amount of points allowed per game down to an impressive 17.2 points per game, the lowest it has ever been in the Gary Pinkel era. What I don't like about Mizzou is that they came into the Bowl Season on a 1-3 run having lost to Oklahoma, Nebraska and Iowa State before beating Kansas 42-17 in their season finale. Oregon State is an interesting matchup for them and we'll see how it goes. The Tigers are averaging 29.4 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging 414.3 total yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. Oregon State's defense is allowing 21.0 points per game this season and they have done it by also allowing 316.4 total yards of offense and only 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB Tony Temple is about the only rushing threat and he led this team to 145.1 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry this season. Oregon State's D-Line is not that good but they have held opponents to 103.1 rushing yards per game this season and have done it by allowing 3.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Chase Daniel is pretty damn good. He has completed 64.1% of his passes this season and he has done it by averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt with 26 touchdown passes and only 10 interceptions. What Daniel has to be concerned with in this game is the fact that Oregon State have 44 sacks on the year and they have some dangerous blitz packages through Mark Banker. The Beavers are allowing their opponents to complete only 54.3% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt so it is imperative that they get some pressure on the Tigers and force them into making some early mistakes here. The Beavers also have great DB's in Derrick Doggett (2 INT for TD's) and Sabby Piscitelli who have combined for 8 interceptions on the year. As a team, they have 17 interceptions on the year and look for them to make some big time plays in this game. The Tigers have had a fumbling problem all year long and whether that has been solved or not is still a question mark in my mind. However, I do know that Missouri loves to come out and throw the first few punches so this Beavers defense is going to have to show some balls early and hold the Tigers off. Mizzou was only 1-4 ATS on the road this season and I don't see why they should perform any better in this game against a PAC 10 team still trying to restore conference pride.​

The Oregon State Beavers come into this game with an impressive 9-4 record on the year. Head coach Mike Riley was not at all happy about the 13th game this team had to play in Hawaii on December 2 but one thing that game did do is keep the Beavers playing a lot longer into the season than the Mizzou Tigers. That means that the Beavers players should have less rust to shake off and that could mean a faster start (fast starts have all been lethal this Bowl Season and this one should be the same if it happens). Mike Riley has really turned things around from the last two or three season and the Beavers look like they are back to the days where they are ready to make a run at the PAC 10 Title. This is Riley's best record with the Beavers in his second sting as head coach and Riley is 2-0 lifetime in Bowl Games having won the 2003 Las Vegas 55-14 over New Mexico as a two point favorite and having won the 2004 Insight.com Bowl over Notre Dame as a -4 favorite. So Riley has two wins and ATS covers as the favorite in Bowl Games which tells me that he has a good way of getting his players ready to go in Bowl Games. I was most impressed by Oregon State's win over USC this season and I was impressed that this team managed to go to Hawaii and beat the Warriors, something nobody else did this season or in a long time. This is definitely a team that has no problems getting motivated. The Beavers are averaging 26.9 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging 353.2 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. Missouri's defense is notches better than it was last season and they have allowed only 17.2 points per game this season which is a full 12 points down from last year. They have also allowed 308.8 total yards of offense and only 4.7 yards per play on offense. On the ground, RB Yverson Bernard is one of the most underrated RB's in the Nation and I have always said it. He has rushed for 1210 yards this season with 12 touchdowns and has led this team to 119.5 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry. Missouri's defense is allowing only 137.3 rushing yards per game this season and they have done it by allowing only 3.8 yards per play. Bernard is going to have to make plays early and get his feet going to open things up in the air. QB Matt Moore is completing 61.1% of his passes this season for a whopping 8.2 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He has been sacked quite a few times so he needs to ber very careful with the way he approaches the line. The Tigers are allowing only 5.9 yards per pass attempt this season but that shouldn't be a problem for Moore because he has good insire route receivers and they need to stretch this defense out early and make some big plays. Missouri is very good when it comes to forcing turnovers so the Beavers cannot afford to lose the ball at any point in time. I like the ability of the Beavers to go deep in this game and move the ball on short yardage if they have to. The X-Factor is going to be Yverson Bernard and the fact that Mike Riley knows how to get the bets out of his players come Bowl Season. Oregon State is 4-2 ATS on the road this season with big wins over Hawaii, Arizona and Washington State.​

I have to admit I probably won't watch most of this Bowl Game as I will be watching the other bowl game between Clemson and Kentucky but this Bowl game does have potential to be a close and exciting game. The PAC 10 has suffered enough criticism this week with their horrendous start to the Bowl Season and we saw the way Cal responded last night...like a true champion would if they were knocked down. Now it's time for Mike Riley and his players to be jacked up about conserving Conference pride against a Big 12 team that is going to have several fans in attendance without a doubt. Mike Riley is a very good Bowl Game coach with Bowl Game wins over the Mountain West and Notre Dame in his pocket. I have no doubt in my mind that he'll be looking to add a win over a Big 12 team to boost his prospect as a head coach. Oregon State is better than we think and their D helf up in tough situations this season. Anyone who can go to the Island and hold the Warriors to 32 points and win the game has some serious will and determination. The Beavers are definitely aware of everything Missouri is capable of and the good preparation will show on the field in this game.​

Trend of the Game: Oregone State is 5-1 ATS in their last six December games.​

Oregon State 28, Missouri 21​

 

[MistaFlava]

Liberty Bowl​

Houston Cougars +5 (50 Units)​

The Houston Cougars come into this game and already nobody is giving them a chance to stop a Steve Spurrier led offense. That's pretty odd considering they have one of the best quarterbacks in the Nation at the helms and considering they are coming off a huge Conference USA Title win earlier in the month. How can you not give Art Briles and his guys a chance to win this game? Do you have any idea how disappointed they were last year when they went to the Fort Worth Bowl and got blown out in their home state by Kansas? That wasn't pretty and it's not about to happen again. Houston finished the year with 10-3 record which is quite impressive considering that back in 2001, this team went 0-11 and was at the bottom of the College Football basement. This is a tough team that is used to playing against tough defense and that just never goes away. The Cougars may not win pretty but they always keep big games close and always make things interesting. Where would this program be now had they not lost 14-13 to Miami earlier in the year and had they won that game? Or how about the three times oddsmakers made these guys underdog this year and they responded by winning one of those games by 17 points and losing the other two by a combined 4 points? The Cougars are averaging 32.8 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging 439.8 total yards of offense and 6.6 yards per play. South Carolina's defense has had it's fair share of problems this season, allowing 17.3 points per game on 321.0 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, the Cougars have some very complex running packages they can run as they average 170.8 rushing yards per game on the season and have done it on 4.9 yards per carry. Even more impressive is that WR Anthony Alridge leads the team in rushing with 908 yards and 10.0+ yards per carry and is followed by RB Jackie Battle who has 13 rushing TD's on the year. South Carolina's run defense is allowing 147.8 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry this season and once things get kicking on the ground for the Cougars, their passing attack should be able to knock the lights right out. QB Kevin Kolb has passed for more than 10 000 yards in his four years at Houston and having lost two Bowl Games (Hawaii in 2003 and Fort Worth in 2005), this is his last chance to sport a Bowl ring that reads CHAMPIONS on it. Kolb has completed 67.7% of his passes this season for 8.7 yards per pass attempt, 27 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. South Carolina's defense is allowing only 52.4% of passes to be completed against them but they do allow the deep pass and allow 7.6 yards per pass attempt. The Gamecocks have a decent pass rush but will they be able to slow down the running game enough to get the pass rush going? I don't think so. Once Kolb gets going in this game, there won't be any stopping him. Houston has 6 WR's who have caught a pass of 40+ yards this season and you can expect them to come at South Carolina with everything they have.​

The South Carolina Gamecocks are coming off a 7-5 season which is pretty damn good considering the high level of competition in the SEC these days but I was not impressed with who this team beat. Apart from their win over Clemson and over Kentucky, this team failed to beat all the big name schools in the SEC, losing to Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas and Auburn. Steve Spurrier is now 14-10 as head coach of South Carolina and for whatever reason, is having problems turning this program around. Even though Spurrier has said he is not leaving for another school, we all know he has interests in other places and we all know that this could definitely have been a distraction during this past week of Bowl game practices where all the players were asked about Spurrier possibly leaving. Regardless, I don't like some of the things he has done at SC and I don't think he has any clue what the Houston Cougars are all about. Well he better figure it out fast because even though his team went 3-0 ATS to finish the season with a near win over the Gators, it's going to be tough for him and his guys to give a hoot about playing a Conference USA Champion when they could have been playing tomorrow or the day after in the more important Bowl Games. Spurrier is 6-7 lifetime in Bowl Games and this program has not won a Bowl Game since the 2001 Outback Bowl. The Gamecocks come into this game averaging 25.2 points per game on the season and they have done it by also averaging 385.3 total yards of offense for 6.3 yards per play. Houston's defense is allowing 21.9 points per game this season and although they have played very well and already won a Championship, they are allowing 339.1 total yards per game on 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, South Carolina love to run the ball and they have averaged 140.6 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry this season which could cause problems for Houston since they have allowed 139.9 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry. However, Steve Spurrier is too stubborn not to unleash his passing game in a Bowl game and that's not that smart at all. QB Blake Mitchell could share time with Syvelle Newton (although I don't think it happens). Mitchell missed most of the season because of his off-field problems earlier in the year. He has completed 67.1% of his passes this season for 8.5 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions. Houston's defense are opportunistic playmakers as they have allowed opponents to complete only 56.8% of their passses this season for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. They have also forced 21 fumbles on the year and have intercepted 10 passes. Will Gulley is very dangerous in the secondary and if Blake Mitchell starts to force some throws when put under pressure, he is going to have big time problems with Gulley who is quick and sneaky and can pick you off just like that. If Mitchell can connect with Sid Rice all afternoon, South Carolina has a good chance but if they don't run the ball enough to make a dent in the pass rush, Houston is going to takeover with their offense and win this game.​

What don't people understand about the Gamecocks anyways? They have not been able to stop one decent QB all season and all their wins came against QB's that are either mediocre or that don't belong in the NCAA. Let's have a quick look. South Carolina's wins came against Mississippi State and Tray Rutland, Wofford and whoever their QB is, Florida Atlantic and Sean Clayton, okay they beat Andre Woodson and Kentucky but early in the season, Vanderbilt and Nickson, Middle Tennessee State and Sean Marks and finished off their campaign by beating Will Proctor and Clemson (Proctor is not that good yet). Now their losses came against Matthew Stafford and Georgia, Brandon Cox and Auburn, Erik Ainge and Tennessee, Arkansas and Casey Dick and finally Florida and Chris Leak. My question is...how will South Carolina be able to stop a quartberback that is playing his last collegiate game and that has 27 touchdowns on the season with only 3 interceptions and that has passed for well over 10 000 yards in his career? Kolb is the best QB they will have faced all season and I don't see the Gamecocks being able to stop him in this game.​

Trend of the Game: Houston is 5-1 ATS in their last six December games.​

Houston 35, South Carolina 32​

 

[G-Man]

GL today Flava:shake: happy new year too.

 

[MistaFlava]

Insight Bowl​

Minnesota Golden Gophers +7.5 (10 Units)​

The Minnesota Golden Gophers pretty much came out of nowhere and made themselves Bowl eligible with a season ending home win over Iowa. The players were pretty damn pumped after that game knowing that they had started the season 3-0, quickly dropped off the map by losing their next four games and everything has been a roller coaster ride ever since. Experts were saying before the season that Minnesota would have no shot at winning more than the seven games they won last season but the Gophers came within a game of doing that which tells me right away that they are better than some people think. Minnesota dropped 60+ points on Temple and Indiana this season and although Texas Tech's defense is a million times better than those two schools, the Gophers were also able to score 27 points against a very good Penn State defense and they were able to drop a combined 65 points on Michigan State and Iowa in their last two games of the season. So once again, Minnesota is definitely capable of keeping up in this game as long as their defense makes plays like they did against Kent State, Temple, Purdue, Michigan, Penn State, North Dakota State, Indiana, Michigan State and Iowa. Believe it or not, those are all teams they held to 30 points or less...something we would have never thought of last season. Minnesota is averaging 27.9 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging 370.4 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play. Who said they had no offense. Texas Tech is allowing 23.8 points per game on the season and they have done it by also allowing 323.1 total yards of offense and only 4.9 yards per play on the year. On the ground, RB Amir Pinnix quitely rushed for 1000+ yards on the season with 9 touchdowns and 91.1 rushing yards per game. Minnesota is rushing for 152.8 rushing yards per game on the year with 4.4 yards per carry. Texas Tech's run defense has been stout in the past but they have allowed 147.4 rushing yards per game this season and have done it by allowing 3.8 yards per carry. In the air, QB Bryan Cupito is playing in his last college game of his career. He has completed 59.5% of his passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt which is impressive. He has passed for 19 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions which is also good considering Minnesota loves to run the ball. Texas Tech's defense is allowing 58.1% of passes to be completed against them this season and they are also allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Cupito has been good with interceptions this season and Texas Tech have intercepted only 10 passes all season so he shouldn't be concerned. Minnesota has lost only 4 fumbles all season long with is very important because if they want a chance to win this game, they are going to have to win the turnover battle and that all starts by holding onto the ball in the early going of this game. Minnesota takes only 5.3 penalties per game this season compared to the Red Raiders who take almost 8 penalties per game and as long as they keep their heads screwed on properly for this game, Cupito should hook up with Logan Payne or Ernie Wheelright on some big passing yardage plays downfield that keep Minnesota on the board. I really like the Gophers chances of keeping this game close.​

Texas Tech comes into this Bowl Game with a 7-5 record on the year which is disappointing for them considering that most experts had them pegged for a 10+ win season and they got nowhere near that. The fact that they didn't start a Senior QB for the first time in 4-5 years was probably one of the main reasons for a lack of killer instinct in some games. Head coach Mike Leach is now 3-3 in College Bowl games but the Red Raiders were held to only 10 points in last year's Cotton Bowl versus Alabama and playing in the Insight Bowl is most definitely a step down for this team. The Red Raiders can pretty much blow any team away if they really want to but the question in this game is how interested can this team be knowing that they have been in much bigger bowl games the last few seasons? The Red Raiders had uninspired efforts and losses against Colorado, Missouri, TCU just to name a few and they might be caught off guard once Minnesota starts piling points on the board. The advantage of betting on the Red Raiders is that they can put points on the board in a matter of minutes if they are down but their defense doesn't make enough big plays to keep them distanced from their opponent which is why so many times this season we have seen them win games by smaller margins than in past seasons. Some people have capped this line a lot higher than it is but I find it perfect. Texas Tech is averaging 31.5 points per game this season which is not much more than Minnesota has averaged on the season. They have done it by averaging 440.5 total yards per game on 6.5 yards per play. Minnesota's defense is not very good but they have held their own at times this season and they are allowing 24.5 points per game on the year. They have done that by allowing 417.3 total yards of offense on 6.0 yards per play so some guys on this team are going to have to step things up and make some big plays if the Gophers want a shot at the win. On the ground, Texas Tech average only 77.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry which is great news because Minnesota is horrible against the run allowing 163.8 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. As long as TT doesn't run, run and run the ball, the Gophers should be fine. In the air, QB Graham Harrell is completing 66.9% of his passes for 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 36 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The key for this Minnesota defense is going to be to play the receivers tough within five yards of the line of scrimmage. The Gophers have to bump, push and run with or they are going to get burned left and right. Minnesota is allowing opponents to complete almost 62% of their passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt so someone has to make some big plays. CB Trumain Banks will probably be back for this game after breaking his arm in October and that could be huge for this secondary who have 16 interceptions on the year. Like I said, they might allow a lot of yardage in the air but this secondary makes big plays when they need to and if they can get some pressure on Harrell early in the game, I think the secondary makes big enough plays to give the Gophers offense a chance. Let's see what Mason can pull out of his hat for this Bowl Game and let's see if David Lockwood can get his secondary going and have them make big plays.​

Everytime time the Minnesota Golden Gophers reach a low point where oddsmakers underestimate them in a Bowl Game, they make their faders pay the price for going against them. It happened in the 2002 Music City Bowl when the Gophers were +7 underdogs against #25 Arkansas but won that game 29-14 and it happened again in the 2004 Music City Bowl where Minnesota was dogged at +1 but came out and beat Alabama 20-16. The bottom line here is that when the Golden Gophers are underdogs in Bowl Games under Glen Mason, they are very good and it seems to bring out the best in them. Minnesota is certainly capable of shooting things out with Texas Tech should it happen which is why I love getting more than a full touchdown of free points here for this game. High scoring games a very often close and more times than not, the underdog takes this thing right down to the final wire before either winning or losing the game. Minnesota has scored 30+ points five times this season and they have exploded for 60+ points twice this season. This is a team very capable of winning this game.​

Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.​

Minnesota 28, Texas Tech 27​

 

[MistaFlava]

Champs Sports Bowl​

Purdue Boilermakers -1 (10 Units)​

The Purdue Boilermakers were supposed to explode this year and have no problems matching their 9 win total of the 2003 season but that didn't happen. Purdue had some issues between quarterback and receivers this year but their main problem was the fact that the defense was not capable of stopping anyone in sight. Sure they finished 8-5 anyways which is pretty damn good and had bounces gone their way in the Hawaii game as well as the Notre Dame game, we could very well be looking at a Purdue team that won 10 games for the first time in the Joe Tiller era. The bottom line is though that Purdue played a lot better on the road this season and they played a lot better without the pressures and the tooting the horns in West Lafayette. Mid-season home losses to Penn State and Wisconsin are nothing to be ashamed off because the Boilermakers were able to dash Indiana's Bowl Game dreams in their home finale and the trip to Hawaii gave this team a confidence boost that they could click on all cylinders and win big games. Alright, so Purdue is 1-3 ATS this season as a favorite but they were 5-1 ATS away from home and I like the idea that this game is being played in Florida where this team can be relaxed. Purdue is averaging 27.5 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging 425.8 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play. Scoring points has never been a problem under Joe Tiller. Maryland's defense was pretty damn good all year but they're not that good and they have allowed 23.1 points per game on the year and have done it by allowing 366.9 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. On the ground, RBs Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor are the future of this team and together they combined for 15 touchdowns and led this team to 132.1 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry on the season. Tiller needs to keep this game on the ground for Purdue because Maryland is horrendous against the run and they have allowed 174.8 rushing yards per game this season on 4.7 yards per carry. Sheets is a very fast RB and if he gets a hole, forget about it, he'll be gone to the races (something he has yet to do this season...run a long one). In the air, QB Curtis Painter had his share of issues with receivers this year but he still completed 59.1% of his passes for 7.5 yards per pass attempt and managed to throw 21 touchdown passes. His problem has always been bad decisions and it showed when he threw 18 interceptions this past season. Luckily for him, Maryland's secondary has only 7 interceptions on the year and their opponents completed 58.2% of their passes against them for a whopping 7.0 yards per pass attempt. The Terrapins don't have enough of a pass rush to bother Painter in the pocket and if the Purdue running game is working early, look for Painter to hook up deep with Bryant, Lymon, Keller, Orton, Taylor or Chattams who have all caught passes of 40+ yards this season. Purdue is going to have no problems against a soft Maryland defense and Joe Tiller has no reason to hide any of his weapons in this game. I like Tiller to win his first Bowl Game since 2002.​

The Maryland Terrapins are probably going to be the hot choice on these forums by the time we approach gametime but I just don't know why when their defense was just as bad as Purdue's this season but their offense was nowhere near what Purdue was able to do on the year. It doesn't make sense to me, even though Maryland is 8-4 in the very weak ACC, why Purdue would not be favored by more points. Don't get me wrong, I am happy that the line is this low where all you have to do is pick the winner but the bottom line here is that Maryland made it to a Bowl Game which was their goal before the season started and now it's time to see if they can shoot things out with the Boilermakers. Maryland had some pretty damn impressive wins over Florida State, Miami and Clemson in the mid-season but seeing that those three teams dropped to the middle of the pack in terms of ACC supremacy, I would say those wins didn't have as much value in determining the capabilities of this team as much as the losses to Wake Forest, Boston College, Georgia Tech and West Virginia did. Those are the best four teams the Terps have faced all year and they lost to all four of them by a combined 61 points and that's not good news considering Purdue is very capable of scoring just as many points as the Moutaineers, Yellow Jackets, Demon Deacons and Golden Eagles. Maryland is averaging 21.7 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging 303.3 total yards of offense and 5.1 yards per play. Purdue's defense has struggled all season allowing 26.9 points per game and they have done it by allowing a whopping 432.7 total yards of offense per game on 6.1 yards per play. However, the question remains...can the Terps take advantage of this or is their offense too weak? On the ground, Maryland has rushed for only 123.5 rushing yards per game this season on 3.7 yards per carry which probably won't be enough to make a hole in a run defense that is allowing 190.1 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry this season. Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore are both capable runners but if Purdue takes an early lead, can they play from behind? QB Sam Hollenbach is completing 61.8% of his passes this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He has a bad habit of sticking in the pocket too long which won't be good against Purdue who have 28 sacks on the year. Purdue's secondary makes big time plays and they have 10 interceptions on the year and have forced 31 fumbles on the year. Maryland has fumbled 18 times this season and if they are not careful, the Boilermakers will force the turnovers. Sure Purdue is allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt but like I said, I watched a few of their games this season and the DB's have been there to make big plays but now it's a matter of execution for this defense. Neither team takes many penalties and with both teams probably running the ball a lot, I see this game being a lot lower scoring than some think.​

In what promises to be one of the most interesting coaching matchups on the pre-New Year's Bowl Games, Joe Tiller and the FRIDGE faceoff in a battle of two underachieving teams. Tiller has been notoriously bad in Bowl Games going only 3-6 in his career but that doesn't hide the fact that he coaches no holds barred in these games and puts it all on the line. On the other side, Ralph 'The Fridge' Friedgen is going to be coaching his fourth Bowl Game and he is now 2-1 in Bowl Games after leading the Terps to a big win over West Viriginia his last time out. If you combine the weight of these two coaches you probably have an entire offensive or defensive lines to play with. In the end though, this game is going to come down to which coach plays the bigger mind games with the other coach and which coach has the best possible tactical strikes at the best possible times. I would give the coaching advantage to Friedgen overall but the ACC was very weak this year and the fact that Maryland won 8 games doens't tell me much. Tiller had an up and down year and surprised everyone by having his boys show up to play in Hawaii at the end of November. Should be a fun game to watch and make money on.​

Trend of the Game: Maryland is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 night games.​

Purdue 24, Maryland 17​

:cheers:​

 

[TroyStacks]

first 3 i'm with you the others opposite hoping you get those 3 and we split the latter

 

[Troutman]

My POINT EXACTLY

CONFRENCE USA:spank: SEC

 

[bjorks]

Flava - best of luck today for you, but couldn't disagree with you more about the TT/MN game. MN this year is VERY DIFFERENT than teams the past few years. Add to the mix the OL is a mess with no dept tonight and Cupito just doesn't have enough arrows to hang with TT. Yes they can put up points, but they also played one of the softest nonconference schedules possible.

Wheelright will be a nonfactor tonight. This is the best team in college football that I know and there's no way they'll hold TT under 30 points tonight. They will score, but TT will be attacking MN's weakness, the secondary.

There is a big difference though between 6.5 and 7.5 or even 8. The smarties are all taking MN over a TD, but under a TD the Red Raiders Roll over Goldie Gopher.

 

[MistaFlava]

1 Unit = $100

Another typo...was running to get my shit together this morning.

 

[Ripped71]

1 Unit = $100

Another typo...was running to get my shit together this morning.

I was going to say it's pretty crazy to have 50 dimes on Houston....

 

[MistaFlava]

I was going to say it's pretty crazy to have 50 dimes on Houston....

yeah I wish...LOL...maybe in 10 years.

Gl today!

 

[E.T.G.]

By far your biggest play is Houston today..

Good friggen health..

Spurrier and the boys are ready

 

[mr21]

not playing PUR/MD and only agree with OSU - at least one of us will have a good day

BOL

 

[MistaFlava]

Thanks guys!


GL to all and apologies for the messiness of my thread today.

 

[abcs]

I was going to say it's pretty crazy to have 50 dimes on Houston....

Yea i was tryin to figure out how you could be 68 units down .. and he had it at 6.8 units..


Good luck.. ?

:shake:

 

[MistaFlava]

The fuss about my units continues...Lets make some cash!

 

[MistaFlava]

I cant believe Oregon State tied the game and went for 2 points to screw all Oregon State backers.
Wow...now that was unreal.

 

[abcs]

They were down by 14.. with like 5 minutes left, not really a moose job

TOugh break none the less

 

[MistaFlava]

They were down by 14.. with like 5 minutes left, not really a moose job

TOugh break none the less

down 14 points in CFB means nothing...LOL...bad break though...

 

[Veto]

Your a good ass capper I think any team that lost to Colorado should never be laying that many pts go Minn, and with you on Purdue. That happens never in CFB in refernce to the OSU game.

 

[Cruzer0210]

mista gl tonite im poundin purdue

 

[ssgkaapana]

Flava, I wished I would have read this before going to work. Getting pounded again today, but hopin to pull some out with the 2 late games. GL and thanks in advance.