MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Record: 40-29-2 (+21.40 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 30-22-2 ATS (+19.20)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-7 (+2.20 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 3-2 (+4.00 units)
11-3 ATS Last Week (15-4-2 ATS in Football Last week)
I am coming off one of my best week's of football handicapping as I went 11-3 ATS in College and 4-1-2 ATS in the NFL. I don't like much for some of the non-Saturday plays this week so I am not going to touch them unless they fall into my range of plays. Good Luck to all and let the winning ways continue.
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Thursday, October 12
Boston College Eagles +2.5 (2 Units)
The Virginia Tech Hokies definitely looked like the class of the ACC once again this year but that was over the course of the first four weeks of the season. Those four weeks saw the Hokies demolish all four opponents by a combined score of 138-23. If you look at those numbers on paper it looks like Virginia Tech is one of the top ranked teams in the Nation (they are #17). However, if you take a deeper look at who they have played you will notice that they have played against Northeastern (I-AA School), North Carolina (fighting Dule for the Conference basement spot), Duke (worst team in the ACC by a mile) and Cincinnati (a very young team from the Big East basement). I'm not impressed. The reality check came two weeks ago for the Hokies when they hosted the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and got smoked 38-27 on their own home turf. The Hokies and coach Beamer have had a week off to prepare for this Thursday Night encounter and I would like to think that they are going to be ready to go. You might all be impressed that Virginia Tech is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday Night games but that doesn't mean much to me because those games were against different opponents. In their last three games, the Hokies average 30.7 points per game on 377.3 total yards per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games. Boston College has always played tough defense at home and they are allowing only 13.3 points per game in their last three games on 338.3 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Branden Ore is stud but he is playing behind one of the weakest offensive lines in the ACC and the team is averaging only 96.3 rushing yards per game on 3.1 yards per carry in their last three games. That sucks. BC's rush defense has always been good and they are allowing only 3.5 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air, QB Sean Glennon still hasn't shown that he can be anything like the last 2-3 QB's VTech has had. Glennon is completing only 51.3% of his passes for 8.1 yards per pass attempt in the last three games which means that VT goes for the Home Run ball or nothing. Boston College's secondary is going to have to tighten things up in this game as they allow their last three opposing QB's to complete 60% of their passes for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Their secondary is averaging 1.3 interceptions per game in their last three games and I expect to see some big plays from these guys today. Virginia Tech will score but the question is how much and will it be enough to win? I don't think so.
The Boston College Eagles are 4-1 on the season heading into this game and I am looking forward to seeing the Tom O'Brien versus Frank Beamer classic once again this year. The Hokies pounded the Eagles 30-10 last year in Blacksburg and seeing that Boston College is returning the more veteran team this year, I expect a much better performance from the Eagles who won't have to deal with the Marcus Vick headache this year. You can't forget that this is the same Boston College team that beat ACC favorites Clemson earlier this year in overtime and that followed that win up with another overtime win at home this time against the high powered BYU offense. As much as you want to fault this O'Brien team for losing focus late in the NC State game and eventually losing the game, this is still a talented bunch of players. The Eagles are 6-3 ATS the last seven years as a home underdog and I look for the good fortunes to continue tonight. You can't overlook the fact that Florida State has now lost two games this year and that BC is now fighting with Clemson to win the ACC Atlantic Division. The FSU loss gave the Eagles great hope in their BYE week and I say that because they have the advantage of having already beat the Clemson Tigers should they finish tied atop the Atlantic Division. In their last three games, Boston College is averaging 22.3 points per game on 377.0 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. They are up against a Virginia Tech defense that is stout and that allows 17.0 points per game in their last three (uh not that good) but on only 248.0 total yards of offense and 4.5 yards per play. On the ground, RB's LV Whitowrth and Dre Callender are both averaging more than 4.0 yards per carry and the Eagles are averaging 145.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry in their last three games. Virginia Tech allow only 2.9 yards per carry in their last three games but they are going to have to respect the BC running game this year or else they will get burned downfield. In the air, QB Matt Ryan has been playing a lot better recently, completing 58.8% of his passes in the last three games for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. He continues to have interception problems but the coaches have worked with him this off week and they have setup a gameplan that includes a lot of high percentage pass attempts. Regardless, Virginia Tech's secondary has been burned for some big time plays this season and their last three opponent QB's have completed 60.8% of their passes for a whopping and shocking 8.2 yards per pass attempt. This is the game of the year so far for Boston College. They want to win this one badly because they will then have the advantage of having 9 days of practice prior to next week's huge game against Florida State. Had this game been played on a Saturday, I would have probably not touched the game. This is a great spot for the Eagles and it's time to make some cash.
Trend of the Game: Boston College is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
Boston College 24, Virginia Tech 22
Colorado State Rams +5.5 (5 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MIDWEEK***
Here we go again guys. Utah was my huge PLAY OF THE MIDWEEK winner last week with their win over TCU and it seems like the betting public is once agains making a big mistake when it comes to betting on a Thursday night game out of the Mountain West Conference. The Rams are 4-1 this season and I would go as far as saying that this is probably the best and most confident team Sonny Lubick has had in the last 2-3 years. The big problem for this team in 2005 was their horrendous defense but they have greatly improved and now it's time to show what they can do on the road. This is a Colorado State team that beat Colorado, had an off-game against Nevada the following week and then who beat Fresno State on the road for one of their most impressive wins in a long time. They are coming off a 28-7 win over UNLV last week in their HomeComing game and like I said before, Lubick is demanding that his players show how serious they are about the Mountain West by beating a conference team on the road. I say that because CSU is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Moutain West Conference road games and they have not shown that they can compete outside of Fort Collins. The last time Colorado State was here was in 2004 where they got blown out but were returning only 3 starters on defense. In their last three games, the Rams average 24.3 points per game on only 288.7 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play. Air Force are allowing only 18.3 points per game over their last three games on 281.3 total yards and 4.8 yards per play. Impressive but very beatable with the way CSU attack on offense. On the ground, the Rams are going to have to abandon the running game since they average a pathetic 2.2 yards per carry in their last three games. Air Force have seen teams that run a lot against them and they have allowed 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games. However, QB Caleb Hanie has been outstanding and he is completing 67.5% of his passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt in the last three games. I know Air Force's defense doesn't allow many passes to be completed but they haven't faced many good QB's (apart from Erik Ainge) and Hanie should have fun against a defense allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. The offensive line is weak for the Rams so they are going to have to design plays where Hanie can get the ball off quickly to receivers cutting across the open middle. Hanie has been sacked a lot so I totally expect to see changes in terms of pass design plays. This could be another huge win for the Rams.
The Air Force Falcons looked pretty damn good in their opener against Tennessee on the road (almost winning the game) but Fisher Deberry's guys have not had the chance to follow that game up with any kind of statement performance. They are coming off a 24-17 loss to Navy on the weekend and I just don't see how they are going to recover from such an emotional game like that. I mean we are only five days after the Navy clash and the Falcons have to go back on the field against a Colorado State team that is hungry for more after a big win over UNLV. I also forgot to mention that Air Force are 4-8-1 ATS in the Lubick vs Deberry matchup and they are also 0-4 straight up in their last four weekday games over the last four years. This is definitely not a team that was made to play during the week. I don't know why, maybe it has to do with their training and class schedules but regardless, this is a great spot to fade them coming off that Navy game and having such a short period of time to prepare. We all know the Falcons like to run, run and run the ball which is not something Colorado State has never seen before. It almost seems like Deberry is going to have to come up with a new gameplan seeing that this is the 13th or 14th year that Lubick sees this running offense. The Falcons average 24.0 points per game in their last three games and have done so on 320.0 total yards but only 4.6 yards per play. Colorado State's defense is much improved on last year's and they allow only 19.3 points per game in their last three games on 317.0 total yards and 5.1 yards per play. Those are not ideal numbers but the best is yet to come. Air Force are going to run about 60 running plays in this game and throw about only 10-15 times. On the ground, they average 260.7 rushing yards per game in their last three and average about 4.4 yards per carry. Colorado State have seen this wishbone offense before and they have their best run defense in years. They are allowing only 112.7 rushing yards per game in their last three and that's on only 3.9 yards per carry. When the Falcons decide to pass the ball, which they rarely do, they are going to have to do a lot better than they have. They are averaging only 5.6 yards per pass attempt (not good for a team like Air Force) and their trick plays often don't work. Colorado State has been stout in the secondary and I expect Lubick to use his talented DB's to stop the running attack and shut down the passing game. They key here for Colorado State will be to go make sure they don't allow the Falcons to get some huge yardage plays and make sure you shut down the trick plays. This is going to be quite the interesting game and although the numbers for Air Force look quite tempting, Colorado State is going to show some big time improvements on the road in Colorado Springs and this is a huge game for both teams. Should be a great one.
Trend of the Game: Colorado State are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.
Colorado State 31, Air Force 27
Saturday, October 14
Iowa Hawkeyes -17.5 (2 Units)
This is a very tough one for me to bet on because as much as I like Iowa to win this game by 30+ points, I do see that Michigan is in the on-deck circle in Ann Arbour and that does concern me a little bit. However, Iowa don't have to do much more than show up in this game for them to win by 20+ points and that is the only reason I am betting on them in this spot. A lot of people are going to argue with me on this one citing that Iowa went to Syracuse and only won by 7 and then they went to Illinois three weeks ago and only won by 17. Yes that's true but the Syracuse game was without starting QB Drew Tate and the Illinois game was a classic sandwich game that ended up being between the Iowa State and Ohio State home games. Bad spot for them but this is a good spot coming off a huge 47-17 home win against Purdue and now easily walking into this Indiana game needing another great performance so they can have all the momentum in the world heading into the Michigan game next week. The Hawkeyes and Kirk Ferentz have not covered a road game as favorites since the 2003 season but they way they have been playing and the situation as it presents itself against a very weak team, is enough for me to bite on this. In their last three games, the Hawkeyes are averaging 29.3 points per game on 406.3 total yards of offense and a whopping 6.3 yards per play. The Indiana defense is as bad as it gets in the NCAA as they are allowing 32.7 points per game in their last three and have done so on 416.3 total yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. This could get ugly in a hurry. On the ground, RB Damian Sims is one of the most underrated backs in the Country, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and 357 total yards. Along with featured back Albert Young, the Hawkeyes average 175.7 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry in their last three games. Indiana's run defense is just pathetic as they have allowed 225.0 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry in their last three. OUCH! In the air, QB Drew Tate should run up his numbers this week. He is completing 58.2% of his passes the last three weeks for a very good 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Here is the fun part of this...Indiana's defense is garbage garbage garbage and they allow an incredible 9.9 yards per pass attempt in their last three games which means that regardless of what Iowa does in this game, there is no excuse for them not winning by at least 24 points and when I say at least I am being generous. This should be a rout and a great preparation game for the Hawkeyes as they head into Ann Arbour for a big one next week.
The Indiana Hoosiers are 2-6 ATS the last eight games they have played against Iowa in the Big 10 and seeing that the Hoosiers are coming off their Super Bowl win over Illinois last week, oddsmakers have given them the light of day with this line because it should actually be up in the 20's but the win has kept it low. Western Michigan came to Bloomington and won the game by 19 while Wisconsin also came to Bloomington and had no problems taking a 52-0 lead before allowing 17 late points to Illinois and eventually winning the game by 35 points. So if you do the math, that should place this Iowa team somewhere in between the Western Michigan 19 point win and the Wisconsin 35 point win which once again proves my point that this line is way off. Coach Terry Hoeppner only ever asked his guys for one Big 10 win this season (it was written 1-0 on his cap a few weeks back) and he got that win last week at Illinois. Now it's back to reality where the Hoosiers are going to continue getting killed by much better teams and Iowa is definitely one of those much better teams. Oh wait, I forgot to talk about Southern Illinois' (I-AA school) win here in Bloomington back in September. So the Hoosiers are 0-4 at home and do I dare mention again how bogus this line actually is? Indiana is averaging 19.3 points per game in their last three games but have done so on only 287.0 total yards and 4.2 yards per play in those games. If you want to beat Iowa and score points on them you have to have a good running game because they allow 4.4 yards per carry in the last three games. However, Indiana have been only so-so running the ball, averaging 105.3 rushing yards per game in their last three on 3.5 yards per carry. Not good enough. In the air, QB Kellen Lewis looked good last week but against Illinois. He is completing only 46.5% of his passes over the last three weeks for only 4.6 yards per pass attempt and one interception per game. Iowa defense is doing a great job this season and their last three opponent QB's have completed only 45.5% of their passes for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Iowa's DB's have 2.3 interceptions per game in their last three and Lewis is going to have one heck of a long day in this one. Indiana are capable of scoring points and they have shown it but this time they go up against the best defense since the Wisconsin game which means that we are in for another 20+ point loss to a much better Big 10 Conference opponent. Indiana was able to keep this game within 17 points in Iowa last year but things have changed, their defense is about 10 times worse and I am calling for a big blowout in this game.
Trend of the Game: Iowa is 24-3 ATS in their last 27 games that follow a 200+ yard rushing performance the game before.
Iowa 40, Indiana 13
Wisconsin Badgers -8 (2 Units)
The Minnesota Golden Gophers come into Madison this week after playing two straight conference home games, after losing both games by very close margins and after starting off the season 2-4. The Gophers have not had a losing season since 2001 but it sure as hell looks like Glen Mason and his group are well on their way to losing ways in 2006 and I don't see why it would stop this week. Sure they looked damn good against Kent State in a 44-0 road win to open the season and sure they looked mighty fine in their 62-0 blowout win over Temple about a month ago but apart from those two games, the Gophers have not shown that they can compete outside of the MetroDome. They are 6-13 ATS in the last seven seasons when playing as a road underdog and now that they have to face a red hot Wisconsin team that has dreams of winning the Conference, there is no reason for this game not to get as ugly as things got in Berkeley and in West Lafayette (as away favorites in that game). The Gophers are coming off a one point overtime loss to Penn State last week at home on a missed point after. Much like Michigan State did after they lost to Notre Dame, teams tend to fold badly the following week after a game like that and fold Minnesota will do. They are 0-2-1 ATS in Big 10 Conference play and have lost five straight games here in Madison by an average of 20 points each game. In their last three games, Minnesota have scored only 20.7 points per game on 386.3 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play in those games. Wisconsin is allowing only 17.7 points per game in their last three and have done so on 272.7 total yards and 4.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Minnesota is averaging 123.0 rushing yards per game in their last three compared to 200+ rushing yards per game the last five seasons. Wisconsin's defense is allowing 4.0 yards per carry in their last three games but Minnesota doesn't have enough fire power on the ground to make them pay for it. In the air, QB Brian Cupito is playing some good football, completing 60.0% of his passes in the last three games for 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Impressive. However, Camp Randall is going to be JUMPING (Jump Around Jump up Jump up and get down) and the Badgers defense is allowing their last three opposing QB's to complete only 51.9% of their passes for only 5.3 yards per pass attempt and 1.3 interceptions per game. Cupito is probably going to have some success passing the ball but without a decent running game to back it up, the Wisconsin defense is going to make him pay for bad throws and bad decisions.
The Wisconsin Badgers have been one of my weekly picks ever since the Bowling Green game to open the season (they won and covered in that game). I have since been on them against SD State and won, been on them against Michigan and pushed, been on them against Indiana on the road and won and was once again on them as my PLAY OF THE WEEK last week when they took care of business against Northwestern at home. Well now it's at home again on HomeComing Saturday that all the fans in Madison get to walk into Camp Randall and enjoy another old fashioned Badger ass whipping. That means that I am 4-0-1 ATS betting on the Badgers this season and since the money train is rolling rolling rolling, I have no reason to jump off just yet even though the line for this game started at 9.5 and is now down to 8. You can argue all you want that someone knows something about this week but I just don't see what it could be and I don't understand why anyone would bother betting on a Minnesota team that came here in 2004 and lost 38-14 with a running attack and that now come here with nothing more than a passing game. The Badgers are averaging a whopping 35.3 points per game in their last three games for 438.0 total yards of offense on 6.3 yards per play. Now that's some impressive stuff considering it includes the Michigan game. What gets me even more exicted is how bad the Gophers defense is. I can even compare them to the Indiana defense because they allow 27.7 points per game in their last three games on a whopping and astonishing 456.7 total yards and 6.7 yards per play. On the ground, RB PJ Hill is my darkhorse for the Heisman trophy should Wisconsin win the Big 10. He has rushed for 847 yards this season, 9 touchdowns and 5.9 yards per carry. BANG BANG BANG...he's stud. You think that's sick...how about the fact that Minnesota allow 187.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.8 yards per carry and it is quite possible that PJ Hill will pass the 1000 rushing yard mark in this game. So 1000 rushing yards in 7 games as a freshman? Wow. In the air, QB John Stocco is doing all the small things right. He is completing 64.4% of his passes for 9.0 yards per pass attempt in his last three games. With PJ Hill running marathons over the Minnesota defense, the Gophers secondary will have even bigger problems now that Stocco and his receivers are on the same page. The Gophers allow their last three opposing QB's to complete 64.0% of their passes for 9.4 yards per pass attempt and they have not shown any kind of QB pressure this season and have barely any interceptions. This game could get quite nasty in a hurry. Why the line is dropping by the day, I have no idea and I am not too concerned. Maybe there are a few ass clowns in the world who still don't respect this Wisconsin team as much as they should and that would make them losers once again this week.
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Wisconsin 31, Minnesota 13
Texas Tech Red Raiders -7 (5 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Here we go guys. This is the big play this week and although it doesn't seem to be one of the most popular plays with the public this week, I am liking this one a lot better than all the other plays I have lined up. The Red Raiders are not what or who they have been the last 4-5 years and I say that because for the first time in that amount of time, they are starting a non-Senior QB who has not been around long enough to completely understand how this powerful Mike Leach offense works. That's fine because the Red Raiders are in the best spot they have been all year to blow a team out and I trust them 100% seeing that they were able to pull things together in College Station two weeks ago. They are coming off an embarassing loss to the Missouri Tigers last week at home. The 38-21 loss really opened some eyes in Lubbock and coach Leach was not a happy camper in practice this week. However, please understand that Leach does not take losses lightly and he has shown that over the years. Remember the 12-3 loss to TCU earlier this year? Well he followed that up with a 62-0 win over a I-AA school the next week. How about the loss to Oklahoma in 2004? He followed that up with a 70-10 troucing of Nebraska. Or even better, you can go back to the loss to New Mexico that same year where he came out the next week and unloaded on TCU winning 70-35. Well this is one of those weeks for Leach and Texas Tech is 15-5 ATS with Leach when coming off a loss. The Red Raiders still average 38.0 points per game in their last three games on 466.0 total yards per game and a nation leading 7.2 yards per play. Colorado's team and their defense have all given up on the season and they are allowing 25.3 points per game in their last three games on 339.7 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. Should I even bother talking about TT's running attack seeing that they run only 14.7 times per game in their last three? Well they do average more than 5.0 yards per carry in those games so when they run, they run effectively. It won't really matter because the only defense Colorado has it their run defense which allows less than 3.0 yards per carry in the last three games. In the air, QB Graham Harell is coming off a bad game but he is still completing 71.3% of his passes over the last three games for a whopping 7.8 yards per pass attempt. He does not throw many interceptions which is good against a Buffs defense that picks off 1.3 passes per game in their last three. Harrell should have one of his biggest games this season because Colorado have allowed their last three QB's to complete 65.5% of their passes for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. This is going to be a make or break game for Leach and his team. They have allowed too many points over the last two weeks while not scoring enough points. I honestly think that Leach is going to unload some big time weapons and big time trick plays in this game. I know the Red Raiders have never won in Boulder before but this is going to be an ugly one.
The Colorado Buffaloes were supposed to have it all under new head coach Dan Hawkins and even though I think they will be better the next few years, I hate to say I told you so for signing a coach out of the WAC Conference that plays his home games on a stupid blue turf. The point is that Colorado has gone from being in the Big 12 Championship game against Texas last season to starting off this season 0-6 and looking like the Colorado team of 2000 when they won only three games all season. Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse for Hawkins and the Buffs, Colorado lost their HomeComing game 34-31 at home last week and there is no reason for anyone who bets on football to even lay on penny on a bunch of gutless ass clowns like these guys. Losing QB Joel Klatt was a lot harder than anyone ever thought it would be and the team has yet to score more than 15 points more than once in all six games. In the process of losing all six games, Colorado have gone 0-4-1 ATS and yes they did lose to a I-AA school in their season opener. Colorado have been able to win and cover all three lifetime meetings in Boulder against the powerful Texas Tech offense but since nothing seems to be working for them and the players have lost interest, I don't see them coming close in this game. The Buffs average only 19.0 points per game in their last three games and have done so on 345.7 total yards and 5.4 yards per play. Hey that's not bad at all. However, did you know that Texas Tech's defense is stronger than ever and they allow only 259.7 total yards of offense per game in their last three on only 4.3 yards per play? Yup...that's right boys and girls. On the ground is where Colorado is good as they average 210.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 5.1 yards per carry. However, how much can you run when you are playing from behind most of the game? Not only that, Texas Tech are allowing only 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games and have done well against the non-option run game. In the air is where Colorado loses games. QB Bernard Jackson is horrendous. He has thrown 1 touchdown pass all year with 5 interceptions. He is completing only 45.6% of his passes over the last three weeks for 5.1 yards per pass attempt. That garbage won't work against a TT defense that is allowing only 5.5 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and that are going to bring pressure to Jackson pretty much all night. Jackson is a Junior but when you think of it, he has no clue how to run the Hawkins offense and this game is going to be one of the biggest disasters of the season. Texas Tech is pissed off and I talked about what they do when they get really pissed off. They drop 60-70 points on their opponents.
Trend of the Game: Texas Tech are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games that follow a double digit home loss.
Texas Tech 45, Colorado 10
Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5 (4 Units)
Much like the 2005 Championship Edition of the Texas Longhorns football team, the Ohio State Buckeyes kicked off their season with five straight ATS wins before finally dropping an ATS cover last week against the Bowling Green Falcons. How did Texas react after failing to cover their first spread of 2005? They went on the road to Baylor and won 60-0. Now I am not saying that Ohio State is going to do the same thing in this game but I am saying that this game has no chance of being anywhere near close. Jim Tressel is not happy with the effort against Bowling Green. Sure he ran a vanilla offense and the Buckeyes were hungover from the Iowa win but beating a MAC Conference bottom feeder by only 28 points is not impressive at all and Tressel is going to want to win by 40+ points in this game seeing that his team has another scrimmage next week when they head home to face Indiana. The Buckeyes have been impressive in almost every single game they have played this season and seeing that Michigan had no problems disposing of the Spartans at home last week, I'm sure Tressell will have no hard feelings if the Buckeyes can do the same by an even larger amount of points. Tressel is 3-0 SU and ATS lifetime versus John L. Smith which obviously shows who is the better coach. The Buckeyes average 33.7 points per game in their last three games and have done so on 346.7 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. This should be another field day for this offense as Michigan State allow 31.3 points per game in their last three games for 369.0 total yards (which is okay) but 6.4 yards per play (which is not). On the ground, the Buckeyes have done a good job setting up the passing attack by rushing for 163.7 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry in their last three. RB Antonio Pittman should definitely add to his 628 rushing yards on the year against an MSU defense that allows 170.0 rushing yards and a whopping 5.0 yards per rush. In the air, QB Troy Smith is completing 64.5% of his passes the last three games for 7.2 yards per pass attempt and his line is doing a great job of protecting him. The MSU defense is allowing an incredible 8.5 yards per pass attempt in their last three games which leads me to believe that #7 (no name needed in this case) is going to go deep quite a few times. The Buckeyes won 32-19 here in 2004 and that was a much weaker squad. This team is the real deal and this Tressel team has National Title winner written all over it. However, it all comes down to how they can perform in tough road games like this and something tells me they can win this game big.
The Michigan State Spartans are done. They have been done ever since the traumatizing and devastating loss to Notre Dame at home a few weeks back. They have yet to recover from that loss and it has shown as they lost to Illinois at home the next week (one of the program's most embarassing losses ever) and followed that up by getting trashed last week in Ann Arbour. Well if you thought that was bad you are in for quite the surprise as the #1 team in the Nation invades East Lansing for what should another disappointing home loss. In their last 12 meetings, the straight up winner has won by 10 or more points in ten of those games which leads me to believe that Ohio State is going to make this a big time win. It's not like Spartan Stadium is that tough a place to play in. The Spartans are only 6-6-1 ATS the last seven seasons as home underdogs and it's not like the fans even care anymore to win this game. The funny thing is that once Michigan State get this game out of the way, we might see them completely turn their season around and get back to a Bowl Game for the first time since 2003. Should they win against NW, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota and/or Penn State, they should have a decent shot. For the time being, the Spartans do average 23.3 points per game in their last three on 319.7 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play in those games. The going is going to get tougher for the Spartans because Ohio State is allowing only 10.0 points per game in their last three on 307.7 total yards and 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Javon Ringer is done for the season and he has been hard to replace. The Spartans average 130.0 rushing yards per game in their last three on 3.9 yards per carry and might have a little success against an Ohio State defense that allows 4.1 yards per carry in their last three. However, Senior playmaker and WR Matt Trannon is probably out in this game (he was carted off last game). Regardless, QB Drew Stanton is banged up and averaging only 5.6 yards per pass attempt in his last three games. The offensive lines has allowed 9 sacks in the last three games and Stanton might be in trouble here because the Buckeyes average almost 3.0 sacks per game in the last three, they average 2.3 interceptions in those games and they allow only 5.8 yards per pass attempt at the same time. Michigan State might score some points in this game but they will find it hard to play from behind all game and they are going to struggle to score more than 20 points in this game. The line is this low because of Ohio State's tendency to run the cheap vanilla offense but this is a game where I see Tressel unleashing the hounds and sending Smith and his guys to another crushing loss. Michigan State is 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games that follow a straight up loss and unless they pull a miracle out of their asses, there is no chance in hell they win this game or cover for that matter.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games that follow a straight up win.
Ohio State 34, Michigan State 14
Alabama Crimson Tide -15 (1 Unit)
The Mississippi Rebels are now one win away from matching last year's three win total but they have run out of luck and lost their damn minds if they think that win is coming in this game. Let's be honest with ourselves before we even cap the game. The Rebels are 2-12 straight up in their last 14 games versus Alabama and even though they came within 2 missed FG's of winning the game at home against the #6 ranked Crimson Tide in 2005, that was then and this is now. The Rebels kicked off the year 0-4 ATS and looked like they were going to lose every game they played. They have since turned things around, played three straight games at home and must now return on the road where they are 0-2 straight up and 0-2 ATS and where they have lost both their games by an average of 22.5 points per game. Oh yeah and those games were against Missouri and Kentucky. In the end, Ed Orgeron is going to pull his hair out for yet another season and I don't see the Rebels improving until sometime in the next few seasons. The straight up winner of the game is 19-3 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series which would obviously indicate that the Rebels are going to get blown out. In their last three games, Mississippi is averaging a paltry 9.7 points per game on a pathetic 219.0 total yards of offense and 3.8 yards per play in those games. Alabama's defense is allowing a rather high 22.0 points per game in their last three games but have done so by allowing only 290.3 total yards of offense in those games. It's the big plays that kill Alabama and the Rebels don't have any big plays to speak of. On the ground, Ole Miss tries but they don't succeed averaging 3.0 yards per carry in their last three games. Making things even more difficult is that QB Brent Schaeffer (yeah...remember the Tennessee QB?) is now at Ole Miss and he has sucked. He is completing only 46.9% of his passes in the last three games for only 5.1 yards per pass attempt. His line is allowing 3.3 sacks per game and he is throwing 1.3 interceptions per game in his last three. Alabama's secondary is by no means tops in the SEC but their last three opposing QB's have completed only 47.5% of their passes for only 6.0 yards per pass attempt and they have intercepted 1.7 passes in those games. This could be one hell of a long day for Schaeffer if he doesn't get his act together early in this game. Alabama is going to be looking to make a statement in this game and if Ole Miss play the way they always play in Conference road games, the blowout is going to start early.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are definitely not the 10-2 team they were last year. They lost a lot of members of their 10.7 points per game defense and although they are 4-2 on the season, this team has a lot of work to do if they want to get to 8 wins. What I have noticed is that they have played some lazy ass football at home and beating Duke 30-14 last week and almost losing the game was as pathetic as it gets. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams. Playing in Tuscaloose is supposed to be pretty damn hard but if you ask Hawaii, Vanderbilt, ULM and Duke (their home opponents this year) they will tell you that Alabama is not as good as they think they are and that each one of those teams had a legitimate shot at beating the Tide at home at some points in the second half. Mike Shula was not the happiest of campers after the Duke game and it will be interesting to see how the players react to his hard nosed ways this week. He wasn't at all happy with the defense allowing 14 points to a horrendous Duke team and you can be sure that if Alabama does anything in this game it's going to be play some hardcore defense. The young players on this team have played enough games and practiced enough times to finally start to show what they can do on the field and make Ole Miss look like they should have never got off the bus in Tuscaloosa. This is a Shula statement game because the Tide need to improve before heading to Tennessee next week. In their last three games, the Tide average 22.0 points per game which is not great but it's okay. In those games they average 343.3 total yards of offense for 5.0 yards per play. Ole Miss has a decent defense and they allow only 17.0 points per game in their last three but it will be tough for them to play against a fired up Alabama team. On the ground, RB Ken Darby doesn't have a touchdown this season and he is having a tough Sophomore season. The Tide have had big problems running the ball this season but expect a breakout game with some big plays by Darby as Ole Miss are allowing 171.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.0 yards per carry. Alabama had one of their most productive rushing performances in the win over Ole Miss last year. In the air, QB John Parker Wilson is completing 60.4% of his passes for 7.7 yards per pass attempt in his last three games. He does throw a lot of stupid passes but that shouldn't be a problem against a pathetic Ole Miss secondary that have one interception in their last three games and that allow 6.5 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. The Rebels don't pick passes off, they don't sack QB's and if you give Parker Wilson enough time to make the big plays, he is going to stick it to you hard. Like I said earlier, Shula is pissed off and practice wasn't pleasant this week. The Crimson Tide have yet to dominate a game at home this week but this is going to be the game that turns their season around and possibly propels them to upset Tennessee next week or maybe even LSU in three weeks. I think they can win one of those games but the bottom line is that their second half of the season starts now and they need to be impressive.
Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
Alabama 27, Mississippi 6
UL Monroe Warhawks +9 (1 Unit)
Haha. Isn't it quite ironic that I am betting on the Warhawks right after I am betting on Alabama? I say that because the last time I even took a look at both teams is when I bet on ULM to cover the points against Alabama back in September and that ended up back firing in my face as the Warhawks couldn't hold on and Alabama ended up running away with the game late. ULM were one or two wins away from possibly winning the Sun Belt Conference last year and although this is supposed to be a rebuilding year, I like the way they have played. The Warhawks were 24 point underdogs in Kansas earlier this year and they almost won the game. They were also seven point underdogs last week against Arkansas State but couldn't get their offense together and ended up losing 10-6. In the end, the Warhawks are 1-4 on the season, their only win has come against a Division I-AA school in the season opener and Charlie Weatherbie's guys are bound to have a few bounces go their way. I really like the spot they are in this week because this is about the time of year where the Sun Belt Conference starts getting a little crazy and all the upsets start happening. The last time ULM was in Troy they lost an exciting 28-24 game as 14 point underdogs. The Warhawks average only 10.7 points per game in their last three games but guess what? That's better than Troy's offense in their last three. In those games, ULM average 275.3 total yards per game on 4.9 yards per play. Troy's defense is allowing 37.3 points per game in their last three games on 460.7 total yards and 6.9 yards per play in those games. ULM have had their best games this season when they can run the ball. They are averaging 125.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.0 yards per carry. This is RB Calvin Dawson's time to shine. He had 118 rushing yards against Alabama and is up against a defense allowing a crazy 258.7 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per carry in their last three games. Dawson is going to be the difference in this game. In the air, QB Kinsmon Lancaster is talented. He is completing 57.1% of his passes the last three games for 5.1 yards per pass attempt but with Troy having to keep Dawson under raps, he might find some big time openings downfield. Troy's defense is allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt and as long as Lancaster doesn't throw into heavy coverage, the Warhawks should have their best offensive games this season. This series goes way back to the 1970's and both schools know each other well. Weatherbie has said it many times that he thinks his team can get to a Bowl Game by winning the Conference and I believe him because he has taken two previous teams to Bowl Games (Navy and Utah State). The Warhawks will shock in this one.
The Troy Trojans are happy to be back home. They have been on the road since their September 2 home opener where they crushed Alabama State. They then hit the road where they almost beat Florida State, did well against Georgia Tech, got demolished and whipped in half in Nebraska and then ended the trip two weeks ago at UAB where they didn't look interested and lost 21-3. Now it's back home where things usually roll for the Trojans but I am now asking myself if this team ever gets up to play against weak teams like ULM or if their hardcore schedule against much better teams has them underestimating Conference games like this one. The 2004 edition of this team was as strong as they get but this is edition is like last year's and as I mentioned before, I don't think they are going to be up for home conference games like this one. Larry Blakeney has been the head coach here for 16 years but one thing we all know about Blakeney is that he almost never has his guys ready coming off a bye week. The Trojans are 2-8 straight up in their last 10 games after bye and 1-4 ATS in their last five games after a bye week. Now that I am looking at things, Tory have been good at home against Conference opponents over the last few years but they have shown weaknesses. The Trojans are averaging 7.7 points per game in their last three games on only 208.3 total yards per game and 3.4 yards per play in those games. It's tough to play against great opponents on the road and to get your offense on track in those games. ULM's defense is allowing 24.0 points per game in their last three games for 384.0 total yards offense and 5.8 yards per play. On the ground, Troy are averaging only 2.1 yards per carry in their last three games for only 69.0 rushing yards per game. ULM's defense is allowing 180.7 rushing yards per game in their last three for 4.6 yards per carry. Troy should have some success running the ball but like I said, their offense is maybe not in complete synch just yet. In the air, QB Omar Haugabook is good but he might needs a few games to get on track after playing some of the best defenses in the Country. He is passing for only 4.7 yards per pass attempt but has a good completion rate and should have a lot better protection than he has had against all the good conference teams they have been playing against. ULM's secondary is weak and have allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. However, like I mentioned before, this game all comes down to offensive rythm and coming off the bye week and having played against all those good teams without playing a Conference opponent is going to have a negative effect on this team. I like Troy to dominate in this Conference for the rest of the season but this might be the one that they talk about when they realize that they came one game short of winning the Conference.
Trend of the Game: ULM is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.
UL Monroe 21, Troy 17
California Golden Bears -7.5 (3 Units)
The California Golden Bears are the darkhorse team that might sneak into the National Championship game should they beat USC on November 18 and should they win out on the other games. Now I know they have been in the -7.5 or -8.5 line range many times this season and guess what? The Golden Bears are 3-0 ATS with a line of -8.5 this season. I locked in on this line at Pinnacle earlier this morning but as I am writing this about the game, I noticed it has gone back to -8.5 which should not be a concern. I would also bet 3 units on the -8.5 and would have no problems taking it all the way up to 10 or 13 points. That's why I don't understand when people buy the hook because if you don't like the 7.5 but you like the 7.0 why even bother betting on a game where you think .5 is going to make a difference? The home team has done well in the past in this series but the straight up winner is 20-5 ATS in the last 25 matchups and there is no chance in hell that California lose this game. The Golden Bears are deserving of a TOP 10 ranking and I say that because apart from their season opening shocker loss to Tennessee, they have demolished every single other opponent including that monster 45-24 home win against the Oregon Ducks last week that had many people shaking their heads in disbelief. The Golden Bears average a whopping 45.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done it on 438.7 total yards of offense and 7.1 yards per play. Washington State's defense has looked pretty damn good the last three weeks allowing only 14.7 points per game and only 295.3 total yards per game on 4.9 yards per play. Impressive but keep in mind that their opponents were Stanford (horrendous on offense), USC (not the same firepower as last year) and Oregon State (dead as water). California love to run the ball with RB Marshawn Lynch who is banged up but has 613 rushing yards on the year for 7.1 yards per carry. The Golden Bears average 172.0 rushing yards per game in their last three on 5.1 yards per carry and it's time to make a dent in the bogus Washington State run defense that is allowing only 2.5 yards per carry in their last three games. Alright their D-Line is not bad but the running game will setup the pass attack. In the air, QB Nate Longshore has been outstanding with his 17 touchdown passes and great accuracy. He is completing 65.1% of his passes the last three games for 9.6 yards per pass attempt and he rarely ever gets sacked. Washington State's secondary is overachieving and even then their last three opposing QB's have completed more thanh 60% of their passes for a whopping 7.2 yards per pass attempt in those games. The key for the Golden Bears in this game is to keep bringing the heat. Washington State are capable of big upsets but only against faltering offenses and the Golden Bears are far from that. In fact, they are a TOP 10 offense in the Country and I say they are going to smoke another road opponent.
The Washington State Cougars have not been to a Bowl Game since the 2003 season when they went to the Holliday Bowl but all that could change this year if they manage to pull off some upset after this game and win three of their next five games once again following this game. In their only two home games of the season, the Cougars blew the living crap out of Idaho 56-0 hhere in Pullman and then two weeks ago they managed to stay close with USC eventually losing 28-22. One thing oddsmakers and sports bettors have to understand here is that California's offense is nothing like the USC offense. They are much more advanced in terms of returning players and having players who have played in the system for years. So you can toss the USC classic out the window because it just doesn't matter right now. The Cougars are coming off a less than impressive 13-6 road win over Oregon State but I mean who doesn't beat Oregon State these days? The Cougars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus the Golden Bears and all the games seem to have more than 65 points scored. I don't know what else to think about this Washington State team other than they are upset worthy but not all the time like some people think. They are averaging 23.7 points per game in their last three games and have done it on an impressive 414.0 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play. California's defense has 8 returning starters and they have played together a long time. The Golden Bears last three games were against Arizona State, Oregon State and Oregon. Some powerful offense in there. In those games, they allowed only 19.3 points per game on 357.3 total yards per game and 5.2 yards per play. Considering their opponents thats damn good. Washington State's running game is averaging 152.3 yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry in their last three but the fun is over because both Oregon and Arizona State had problems moving the ball on the ground and the Golden Bears allow only 3.7 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Alex Brink is completing 57.9% of his passes the last three games for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. California's secondary is coming off a few masterful performances where they allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt but intercepted 2.3 passes per game and sacked QB's 3.7 times per game. The Washington State Cougars are overachieving on offense against weaker opponents. This is the best defensive team Jeff Tedford has ever had since his arrival and I expect them to really flex some of that defensive muscle in this game. It's rare that they allow more than 20 points in a game and I don't see the Cougars having anykind of offensive success in this one.
Trend of the Game: California is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
California 35, Washington State 14
RECAP:
Boston College +2.5
Colorado State +5.5 ***POMW***
Iowa -17.5
Wisconsin -8
Texas Tech -7 ***POW***
Ohio State -14.5
Alabama -15
UL Monroe +9
California -7.5
Good Luck to all this week!
:cheers:
2006 CFB ATS Record: 30-22-2 ATS (+19.20)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-7 (+2.20 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 3-2 (+4.00 units)
11-3 ATS Last Week (15-4-2 ATS in Football Last week)
I am coming off one of my best week's of football handicapping as I went 11-3 ATS in College and 4-1-2 ATS in the NFL. I don't like much for some of the non-Saturday plays this week so I am not going to touch them unless they fall into my range of plays. Good Luck to all and let the winning ways continue.
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Thursday, October 12
Boston College Eagles +2.5 (2 Units)
The Virginia Tech Hokies definitely looked like the class of the ACC once again this year but that was over the course of the first four weeks of the season. Those four weeks saw the Hokies demolish all four opponents by a combined score of 138-23. If you look at those numbers on paper it looks like Virginia Tech is one of the top ranked teams in the Nation (they are #17). However, if you take a deeper look at who they have played you will notice that they have played against Northeastern (I-AA School), North Carolina (fighting Dule for the Conference basement spot), Duke (worst team in the ACC by a mile) and Cincinnati (a very young team from the Big East basement). I'm not impressed. The reality check came two weeks ago for the Hokies when they hosted the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and got smoked 38-27 on their own home turf. The Hokies and coach Beamer have had a week off to prepare for this Thursday Night encounter and I would like to think that they are going to be ready to go. You might all be impressed that Virginia Tech is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday Night games but that doesn't mean much to me because those games were against different opponents. In their last three games, the Hokies average 30.7 points per game on 377.3 total yards per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games. Boston College has always played tough defense at home and they are allowing only 13.3 points per game in their last three games on 338.3 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Branden Ore is stud but he is playing behind one of the weakest offensive lines in the ACC and the team is averaging only 96.3 rushing yards per game on 3.1 yards per carry in their last three games. That sucks. BC's rush defense has always been good and they are allowing only 3.5 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air, QB Sean Glennon still hasn't shown that he can be anything like the last 2-3 QB's VTech has had. Glennon is completing only 51.3% of his passes for 8.1 yards per pass attempt in the last three games which means that VT goes for the Home Run ball or nothing. Boston College's secondary is going to have to tighten things up in this game as they allow their last three opposing QB's to complete 60% of their passes for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Their secondary is averaging 1.3 interceptions per game in their last three games and I expect to see some big plays from these guys today. Virginia Tech will score but the question is how much and will it be enough to win? I don't think so.
The Boston College Eagles are 4-1 on the season heading into this game and I am looking forward to seeing the Tom O'Brien versus Frank Beamer classic once again this year. The Hokies pounded the Eagles 30-10 last year in Blacksburg and seeing that Boston College is returning the more veteran team this year, I expect a much better performance from the Eagles who won't have to deal with the Marcus Vick headache this year. You can't forget that this is the same Boston College team that beat ACC favorites Clemson earlier this year in overtime and that followed that win up with another overtime win at home this time against the high powered BYU offense. As much as you want to fault this O'Brien team for losing focus late in the NC State game and eventually losing the game, this is still a talented bunch of players. The Eagles are 6-3 ATS the last seven years as a home underdog and I look for the good fortunes to continue tonight. You can't overlook the fact that Florida State has now lost two games this year and that BC is now fighting with Clemson to win the ACC Atlantic Division. The FSU loss gave the Eagles great hope in their BYE week and I say that because they have the advantage of having already beat the Clemson Tigers should they finish tied atop the Atlantic Division. In their last three games, Boston College is averaging 22.3 points per game on 377.0 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. They are up against a Virginia Tech defense that is stout and that allows 17.0 points per game in their last three (uh not that good) but on only 248.0 total yards of offense and 4.5 yards per play. On the ground, RB's LV Whitowrth and Dre Callender are both averaging more than 4.0 yards per carry and the Eagles are averaging 145.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry in their last three games. Virginia Tech allow only 2.9 yards per carry in their last three games but they are going to have to respect the BC running game this year or else they will get burned downfield. In the air, QB Matt Ryan has been playing a lot better recently, completing 58.8% of his passes in the last three games for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. He continues to have interception problems but the coaches have worked with him this off week and they have setup a gameplan that includes a lot of high percentage pass attempts. Regardless, Virginia Tech's secondary has been burned for some big time plays this season and their last three opponent QB's have completed 60.8% of their passes for a whopping and shocking 8.2 yards per pass attempt. This is the game of the year so far for Boston College. They want to win this one badly because they will then have the advantage of having 9 days of practice prior to next week's huge game against Florida State. Had this game been played on a Saturday, I would have probably not touched the game. This is a great spot for the Eagles and it's time to make some cash.
Trend of the Game: Boston College is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
Boston College 24, Virginia Tech 22
Colorado State Rams +5.5 (5 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MIDWEEK***
Here we go again guys. Utah was my huge PLAY OF THE MIDWEEK winner last week with their win over TCU and it seems like the betting public is once agains making a big mistake when it comes to betting on a Thursday night game out of the Mountain West Conference. The Rams are 4-1 this season and I would go as far as saying that this is probably the best and most confident team Sonny Lubick has had in the last 2-3 years. The big problem for this team in 2005 was their horrendous defense but they have greatly improved and now it's time to show what they can do on the road. This is a Colorado State team that beat Colorado, had an off-game against Nevada the following week and then who beat Fresno State on the road for one of their most impressive wins in a long time. They are coming off a 28-7 win over UNLV last week in their HomeComing game and like I said before, Lubick is demanding that his players show how serious they are about the Mountain West by beating a conference team on the road. I say that because CSU is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Moutain West Conference road games and they have not shown that they can compete outside of Fort Collins. The last time Colorado State was here was in 2004 where they got blown out but were returning only 3 starters on defense. In their last three games, the Rams average 24.3 points per game on only 288.7 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play. Air Force are allowing only 18.3 points per game over their last three games on 281.3 total yards and 4.8 yards per play. Impressive but very beatable with the way CSU attack on offense. On the ground, the Rams are going to have to abandon the running game since they average a pathetic 2.2 yards per carry in their last three games. Air Force have seen teams that run a lot against them and they have allowed 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games. However, QB Caleb Hanie has been outstanding and he is completing 67.5% of his passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt in the last three games. I know Air Force's defense doesn't allow many passes to be completed but they haven't faced many good QB's (apart from Erik Ainge) and Hanie should have fun against a defense allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. The offensive line is weak for the Rams so they are going to have to design plays where Hanie can get the ball off quickly to receivers cutting across the open middle. Hanie has been sacked a lot so I totally expect to see changes in terms of pass design plays. This could be another huge win for the Rams.
The Air Force Falcons looked pretty damn good in their opener against Tennessee on the road (almost winning the game) but Fisher Deberry's guys have not had the chance to follow that game up with any kind of statement performance. They are coming off a 24-17 loss to Navy on the weekend and I just don't see how they are going to recover from such an emotional game like that. I mean we are only five days after the Navy clash and the Falcons have to go back on the field against a Colorado State team that is hungry for more after a big win over UNLV. I also forgot to mention that Air Force are 4-8-1 ATS in the Lubick vs Deberry matchup and they are also 0-4 straight up in their last four weekday games over the last four years. This is definitely not a team that was made to play during the week. I don't know why, maybe it has to do with their training and class schedules but regardless, this is a great spot to fade them coming off that Navy game and having such a short period of time to prepare. We all know the Falcons like to run, run and run the ball which is not something Colorado State has never seen before. It almost seems like Deberry is going to have to come up with a new gameplan seeing that this is the 13th or 14th year that Lubick sees this running offense. The Falcons average 24.0 points per game in their last three games and have done so on 320.0 total yards but only 4.6 yards per play. Colorado State's defense is much improved on last year's and they allow only 19.3 points per game in their last three games on 317.0 total yards and 5.1 yards per play. Those are not ideal numbers but the best is yet to come. Air Force are going to run about 60 running plays in this game and throw about only 10-15 times. On the ground, they average 260.7 rushing yards per game in their last three and average about 4.4 yards per carry. Colorado State have seen this wishbone offense before and they have their best run defense in years. They are allowing only 112.7 rushing yards per game in their last three and that's on only 3.9 yards per carry. When the Falcons decide to pass the ball, which they rarely do, they are going to have to do a lot better than they have. They are averaging only 5.6 yards per pass attempt (not good for a team like Air Force) and their trick plays often don't work. Colorado State has been stout in the secondary and I expect Lubick to use his talented DB's to stop the running attack and shut down the passing game. They key here for Colorado State will be to go make sure they don't allow the Falcons to get some huge yardage plays and make sure you shut down the trick plays. This is going to be quite the interesting game and although the numbers for Air Force look quite tempting, Colorado State is going to show some big time improvements on the road in Colorado Springs and this is a huge game for both teams. Should be a great one.
Trend of the Game: Colorado State are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.
Colorado State 31, Air Force 27
Saturday, October 14
Iowa Hawkeyes -17.5 (2 Units)
This is a very tough one for me to bet on because as much as I like Iowa to win this game by 30+ points, I do see that Michigan is in the on-deck circle in Ann Arbour and that does concern me a little bit. However, Iowa don't have to do much more than show up in this game for them to win by 20+ points and that is the only reason I am betting on them in this spot. A lot of people are going to argue with me on this one citing that Iowa went to Syracuse and only won by 7 and then they went to Illinois three weeks ago and only won by 17. Yes that's true but the Syracuse game was without starting QB Drew Tate and the Illinois game was a classic sandwich game that ended up being between the Iowa State and Ohio State home games. Bad spot for them but this is a good spot coming off a huge 47-17 home win against Purdue and now easily walking into this Indiana game needing another great performance so they can have all the momentum in the world heading into the Michigan game next week. The Hawkeyes and Kirk Ferentz have not covered a road game as favorites since the 2003 season but they way they have been playing and the situation as it presents itself against a very weak team, is enough for me to bite on this. In their last three games, the Hawkeyes are averaging 29.3 points per game on 406.3 total yards of offense and a whopping 6.3 yards per play. The Indiana defense is as bad as it gets in the NCAA as they are allowing 32.7 points per game in their last three and have done so on 416.3 total yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. This could get ugly in a hurry. On the ground, RB Damian Sims is one of the most underrated backs in the Country, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and 357 total yards. Along with featured back Albert Young, the Hawkeyes average 175.7 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry in their last three games. Indiana's run defense is just pathetic as they have allowed 225.0 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry in their last three. OUCH! In the air, QB Drew Tate should run up his numbers this week. He is completing 58.2% of his passes the last three weeks for a very good 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Here is the fun part of this...Indiana's defense is garbage garbage garbage and they allow an incredible 9.9 yards per pass attempt in their last three games which means that regardless of what Iowa does in this game, there is no excuse for them not winning by at least 24 points and when I say at least I am being generous. This should be a rout and a great preparation game for the Hawkeyes as they head into Ann Arbour for a big one next week.
The Indiana Hoosiers are 2-6 ATS the last eight games they have played against Iowa in the Big 10 and seeing that the Hoosiers are coming off their Super Bowl win over Illinois last week, oddsmakers have given them the light of day with this line because it should actually be up in the 20's but the win has kept it low. Western Michigan came to Bloomington and won the game by 19 while Wisconsin also came to Bloomington and had no problems taking a 52-0 lead before allowing 17 late points to Illinois and eventually winning the game by 35 points. So if you do the math, that should place this Iowa team somewhere in between the Western Michigan 19 point win and the Wisconsin 35 point win which once again proves my point that this line is way off. Coach Terry Hoeppner only ever asked his guys for one Big 10 win this season (it was written 1-0 on his cap a few weeks back) and he got that win last week at Illinois. Now it's back to reality where the Hoosiers are going to continue getting killed by much better teams and Iowa is definitely one of those much better teams. Oh wait, I forgot to talk about Southern Illinois' (I-AA school) win here in Bloomington back in September. So the Hoosiers are 0-4 at home and do I dare mention again how bogus this line actually is? Indiana is averaging 19.3 points per game in their last three games but have done so on only 287.0 total yards and 4.2 yards per play in those games. If you want to beat Iowa and score points on them you have to have a good running game because they allow 4.4 yards per carry in the last three games. However, Indiana have been only so-so running the ball, averaging 105.3 rushing yards per game in their last three on 3.5 yards per carry. Not good enough. In the air, QB Kellen Lewis looked good last week but against Illinois. He is completing only 46.5% of his passes over the last three weeks for only 4.6 yards per pass attempt and one interception per game. Iowa defense is doing a great job this season and their last three opponent QB's have completed only 45.5% of their passes for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Iowa's DB's have 2.3 interceptions per game in their last three and Lewis is going to have one heck of a long day in this one. Indiana are capable of scoring points and they have shown it but this time they go up against the best defense since the Wisconsin game which means that we are in for another 20+ point loss to a much better Big 10 Conference opponent. Indiana was able to keep this game within 17 points in Iowa last year but things have changed, their defense is about 10 times worse and I am calling for a big blowout in this game.
Trend of the Game: Iowa is 24-3 ATS in their last 27 games that follow a 200+ yard rushing performance the game before.
Iowa 40, Indiana 13
Wisconsin Badgers -8 (2 Units)
The Minnesota Golden Gophers come into Madison this week after playing two straight conference home games, after losing both games by very close margins and after starting off the season 2-4. The Gophers have not had a losing season since 2001 but it sure as hell looks like Glen Mason and his group are well on their way to losing ways in 2006 and I don't see why it would stop this week. Sure they looked damn good against Kent State in a 44-0 road win to open the season and sure they looked mighty fine in their 62-0 blowout win over Temple about a month ago but apart from those two games, the Gophers have not shown that they can compete outside of the MetroDome. They are 6-13 ATS in the last seven seasons when playing as a road underdog and now that they have to face a red hot Wisconsin team that has dreams of winning the Conference, there is no reason for this game not to get as ugly as things got in Berkeley and in West Lafayette (as away favorites in that game). The Gophers are coming off a one point overtime loss to Penn State last week at home on a missed point after. Much like Michigan State did after they lost to Notre Dame, teams tend to fold badly the following week after a game like that and fold Minnesota will do. They are 0-2-1 ATS in Big 10 Conference play and have lost five straight games here in Madison by an average of 20 points each game. In their last three games, Minnesota have scored only 20.7 points per game on 386.3 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play in those games. Wisconsin is allowing only 17.7 points per game in their last three and have done so on 272.7 total yards and 4.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Minnesota is averaging 123.0 rushing yards per game in their last three compared to 200+ rushing yards per game the last five seasons. Wisconsin's defense is allowing 4.0 yards per carry in their last three games but Minnesota doesn't have enough fire power on the ground to make them pay for it. In the air, QB Brian Cupito is playing some good football, completing 60.0% of his passes in the last three games for 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Impressive. However, Camp Randall is going to be JUMPING (Jump Around Jump up Jump up and get down) and the Badgers defense is allowing their last three opposing QB's to complete only 51.9% of their passes for only 5.3 yards per pass attempt and 1.3 interceptions per game. Cupito is probably going to have some success passing the ball but without a decent running game to back it up, the Wisconsin defense is going to make him pay for bad throws and bad decisions.
The Wisconsin Badgers have been one of my weekly picks ever since the Bowling Green game to open the season (they won and covered in that game). I have since been on them against SD State and won, been on them against Michigan and pushed, been on them against Indiana on the road and won and was once again on them as my PLAY OF THE WEEK last week when they took care of business against Northwestern at home. Well now it's at home again on HomeComing Saturday that all the fans in Madison get to walk into Camp Randall and enjoy another old fashioned Badger ass whipping. That means that I am 4-0-1 ATS betting on the Badgers this season and since the money train is rolling rolling rolling, I have no reason to jump off just yet even though the line for this game started at 9.5 and is now down to 8. You can argue all you want that someone knows something about this week but I just don't see what it could be and I don't understand why anyone would bother betting on a Minnesota team that came here in 2004 and lost 38-14 with a running attack and that now come here with nothing more than a passing game. The Badgers are averaging a whopping 35.3 points per game in their last three games for 438.0 total yards of offense on 6.3 yards per play. Now that's some impressive stuff considering it includes the Michigan game. What gets me even more exicted is how bad the Gophers defense is. I can even compare them to the Indiana defense because they allow 27.7 points per game in their last three games on a whopping and astonishing 456.7 total yards and 6.7 yards per play. On the ground, RB PJ Hill is my darkhorse for the Heisman trophy should Wisconsin win the Big 10. He has rushed for 847 yards this season, 9 touchdowns and 5.9 yards per carry. BANG BANG BANG...he's stud. You think that's sick...how about the fact that Minnesota allow 187.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.8 yards per carry and it is quite possible that PJ Hill will pass the 1000 rushing yard mark in this game. So 1000 rushing yards in 7 games as a freshman? Wow. In the air, QB John Stocco is doing all the small things right. He is completing 64.4% of his passes for 9.0 yards per pass attempt in his last three games. With PJ Hill running marathons over the Minnesota defense, the Gophers secondary will have even bigger problems now that Stocco and his receivers are on the same page. The Gophers allow their last three opposing QB's to complete 64.0% of their passes for 9.4 yards per pass attempt and they have not shown any kind of QB pressure this season and have barely any interceptions. This game could get quite nasty in a hurry. Why the line is dropping by the day, I have no idea and I am not too concerned. Maybe there are a few ass clowns in the world who still don't respect this Wisconsin team as much as they should and that would make them losers once again this week.
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Wisconsin 31, Minnesota 13
Texas Tech Red Raiders -7 (5 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Here we go guys. This is the big play this week and although it doesn't seem to be one of the most popular plays with the public this week, I am liking this one a lot better than all the other plays I have lined up. The Red Raiders are not what or who they have been the last 4-5 years and I say that because for the first time in that amount of time, they are starting a non-Senior QB who has not been around long enough to completely understand how this powerful Mike Leach offense works. That's fine because the Red Raiders are in the best spot they have been all year to blow a team out and I trust them 100% seeing that they were able to pull things together in College Station two weeks ago. They are coming off an embarassing loss to the Missouri Tigers last week at home. The 38-21 loss really opened some eyes in Lubbock and coach Leach was not a happy camper in practice this week. However, please understand that Leach does not take losses lightly and he has shown that over the years. Remember the 12-3 loss to TCU earlier this year? Well he followed that up with a 62-0 win over a I-AA school the next week. How about the loss to Oklahoma in 2004? He followed that up with a 70-10 troucing of Nebraska. Or even better, you can go back to the loss to New Mexico that same year where he came out the next week and unloaded on TCU winning 70-35. Well this is one of those weeks for Leach and Texas Tech is 15-5 ATS with Leach when coming off a loss. The Red Raiders still average 38.0 points per game in their last three games on 466.0 total yards per game and a nation leading 7.2 yards per play. Colorado's team and their defense have all given up on the season and they are allowing 25.3 points per game in their last three games on 339.7 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. Should I even bother talking about TT's running attack seeing that they run only 14.7 times per game in their last three? Well they do average more than 5.0 yards per carry in those games so when they run, they run effectively. It won't really matter because the only defense Colorado has it their run defense which allows less than 3.0 yards per carry in the last three games. In the air, QB Graham Harell is coming off a bad game but he is still completing 71.3% of his passes over the last three games for a whopping 7.8 yards per pass attempt. He does not throw many interceptions which is good against a Buffs defense that picks off 1.3 passes per game in their last three. Harrell should have one of his biggest games this season because Colorado have allowed their last three QB's to complete 65.5% of their passes for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. This is going to be a make or break game for Leach and his team. They have allowed too many points over the last two weeks while not scoring enough points. I honestly think that Leach is going to unload some big time weapons and big time trick plays in this game. I know the Red Raiders have never won in Boulder before but this is going to be an ugly one.
The Colorado Buffaloes were supposed to have it all under new head coach Dan Hawkins and even though I think they will be better the next few years, I hate to say I told you so for signing a coach out of the WAC Conference that plays his home games on a stupid blue turf. The point is that Colorado has gone from being in the Big 12 Championship game against Texas last season to starting off this season 0-6 and looking like the Colorado team of 2000 when they won only three games all season. Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse for Hawkins and the Buffs, Colorado lost their HomeComing game 34-31 at home last week and there is no reason for anyone who bets on football to even lay on penny on a bunch of gutless ass clowns like these guys. Losing QB Joel Klatt was a lot harder than anyone ever thought it would be and the team has yet to score more than 15 points more than once in all six games. In the process of losing all six games, Colorado have gone 0-4-1 ATS and yes they did lose to a I-AA school in their season opener. Colorado have been able to win and cover all three lifetime meetings in Boulder against the powerful Texas Tech offense but since nothing seems to be working for them and the players have lost interest, I don't see them coming close in this game. The Buffs average only 19.0 points per game in their last three games and have done so on 345.7 total yards and 5.4 yards per play. Hey that's not bad at all. However, did you know that Texas Tech's defense is stronger than ever and they allow only 259.7 total yards of offense per game in their last three on only 4.3 yards per play? Yup...that's right boys and girls. On the ground is where Colorado is good as they average 210.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 5.1 yards per carry. However, how much can you run when you are playing from behind most of the game? Not only that, Texas Tech are allowing only 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games and have done well against the non-option run game. In the air is where Colorado loses games. QB Bernard Jackson is horrendous. He has thrown 1 touchdown pass all year with 5 interceptions. He is completing only 45.6% of his passes over the last three weeks for 5.1 yards per pass attempt. That garbage won't work against a TT defense that is allowing only 5.5 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and that are going to bring pressure to Jackson pretty much all night. Jackson is a Junior but when you think of it, he has no clue how to run the Hawkins offense and this game is going to be one of the biggest disasters of the season. Texas Tech is pissed off and I talked about what they do when they get really pissed off. They drop 60-70 points on their opponents.
Trend of the Game: Texas Tech are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games that follow a double digit home loss.
Texas Tech 45, Colorado 10
Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5 (4 Units)
Much like the 2005 Championship Edition of the Texas Longhorns football team, the Ohio State Buckeyes kicked off their season with five straight ATS wins before finally dropping an ATS cover last week against the Bowling Green Falcons. How did Texas react after failing to cover their first spread of 2005? They went on the road to Baylor and won 60-0. Now I am not saying that Ohio State is going to do the same thing in this game but I am saying that this game has no chance of being anywhere near close. Jim Tressel is not happy with the effort against Bowling Green. Sure he ran a vanilla offense and the Buckeyes were hungover from the Iowa win but beating a MAC Conference bottom feeder by only 28 points is not impressive at all and Tressel is going to want to win by 40+ points in this game seeing that his team has another scrimmage next week when they head home to face Indiana. The Buckeyes have been impressive in almost every single game they have played this season and seeing that Michigan had no problems disposing of the Spartans at home last week, I'm sure Tressell will have no hard feelings if the Buckeyes can do the same by an even larger amount of points. Tressel is 3-0 SU and ATS lifetime versus John L. Smith which obviously shows who is the better coach. The Buckeyes average 33.7 points per game in their last three games and have done so on 346.7 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. This should be another field day for this offense as Michigan State allow 31.3 points per game in their last three games for 369.0 total yards (which is okay) but 6.4 yards per play (which is not). On the ground, the Buckeyes have done a good job setting up the passing attack by rushing for 163.7 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry in their last three. RB Antonio Pittman should definitely add to his 628 rushing yards on the year against an MSU defense that allows 170.0 rushing yards and a whopping 5.0 yards per rush. In the air, QB Troy Smith is completing 64.5% of his passes the last three games for 7.2 yards per pass attempt and his line is doing a great job of protecting him. The MSU defense is allowing an incredible 8.5 yards per pass attempt in their last three games which leads me to believe that #7 (no name needed in this case) is going to go deep quite a few times. The Buckeyes won 32-19 here in 2004 and that was a much weaker squad. This team is the real deal and this Tressel team has National Title winner written all over it. However, it all comes down to how they can perform in tough road games like this and something tells me they can win this game big.
The Michigan State Spartans are done. They have been done ever since the traumatizing and devastating loss to Notre Dame at home a few weeks back. They have yet to recover from that loss and it has shown as they lost to Illinois at home the next week (one of the program's most embarassing losses ever) and followed that up by getting trashed last week in Ann Arbour. Well if you thought that was bad you are in for quite the surprise as the #1 team in the Nation invades East Lansing for what should another disappointing home loss. In their last 12 meetings, the straight up winner has won by 10 or more points in ten of those games which leads me to believe that Ohio State is going to make this a big time win. It's not like Spartan Stadium is that tough a place to play in. The Spartans are only 6-6-1 ATS the last seven seasons as home underdogs and it's not like the fans even care anymore to win this game. The funny thing is that once Michigan State get this game out of the way, we might see them completely turn their season around and get back to a Bowl Game for the first time since 2003. Should they win against NW, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota and/or Penn State, they should have a decent shot. For the time being, the Spartans do average 23.3 points per game in their last three on 319.7 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play in those games. The going is going to get tougher for the Spartans because Ohio State is allowing only 10.0 points per game in their last three on 307.7 total yards and 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Javon Ringer is done for the season and he has been hard to replace. The Spartans average 130.0 rushing yards per game in their last three on 3.9 yards per carry and might have a little success against an Ohio State defense that allows 4.1 yards per carry in their last three. However, Senior playmaker and WR Matt Trannon is probably out in this game (he was carted off last game). Regardless, QB Drew Stanton is banged up and averaging only 5.6 yards per pass attempt in his last three games. The offensive lines has allowed 9 sacks in the last three games and Stanton might be in trouble here because the Buckeyes average almost 3.0 sacks per game in the last three, they average 2.3 interceptions in those games and they allow only 5.8 yards per pass attempt at the same time. Michigan State might score some points in this game but they will find it hard to play from behind all game and they are going to struggle to score more than 20 points in this game. The line is this low because of Ohio State's tendency to run the cheap vanilla offense but this is a game where I see Tressel unleashing the hounds and sending Smith and his guys to another crushing loss. Michigan State is 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games that follow a straight up loss and unless they pull a miracle out of their asses, there is no chance in hell they win this game or cover for that matter.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games that follow a straight up win.
Ohio State 34, Michigan State 14
Alabama Crimson Tide -15 (1 Unit)
The Mississippi Rebels are now one win away from matching last year's three win total but they have run out of luck and lost their damn minds if they think that win is coming in this game. Let's be honest with ourselves before we even cap the game. The Rebels are 2-12 straight up in their last 14 games versus Alabama and even though they came within 2 missed FG's of winning the game at home against the #6 ranked Crimson Tide in 2005, that was then and this is now. The Rebels kicked off the year 0-4 ATS and looked like they were going to lose every game they played. They have since turned things around, played three straight games at home and must now return on the road where they are 0-2 straight up and 0-2 ATS and where they have lost both their games by an average of 22.5 points per game. Oh yeah and those games were against Missouri and Kentucky. In the end, Ed Orgeron is going to pull his hair out for yet another season and I don't see the Rebels improving until sometime in the next few seasons. The straight up winner of the game is 19-3 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series which would obviously indicate that the Rebels are going to get blown out. In their last three games, Mississippi is averaging a paltry 9.7 points per game on a pathetic 219.0 total yards of offense and 3.8 yards per play in those games. Alabama's defense is allowing a rather high 22.0 points per game in their last three games but have done so by allowing only 290.3 total yards of offense in those games. It's the big plays that kill Alabama and the Rebels don't have any big plays to speak of. On the ground, Ole Miss tries but they don't succeed averaging 3.0 yards per carry in their last three games. Making things even more difficult is that QB Brent Schaeffer (yeah...remember the Tennessee QB?) is now at Ole Miss and he has sucked. He is completing only 46.9% of his passes in the last three games for only 5.1 yards per pass attempt. His line is allowing 3.3 sacks per game and he is throwing 1.3 interceptions per game in his last three. Alabama's secondary is by no means tops in the SEC but their last three opposing QB's have completed only 47.5% of their passes for only 6.0 yards per pass attempt and they have intercepted 1.7 passes in those games. This could be one hell of a long day for Schaeffer if he doesn't get his act together early in this game. Alabama is going to be looking to make a statement in this game and if Ole Miss play the way they always play in Conference road games, the blowout is going to start early.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are definitely not the 10-2 team they were last year. They lost a lot of members of their 10.7 points per game defense and although they are 4-2 on the season, this team has a lot of work to do if they want to get to 8 wins. What I have noticed is that they have played some lazy ass football at home and beating Duke 30-14 last week and almost losing the game was as pathetic as it gets. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams. Playing in Tuscaloose is supposed to be pretty damn hard but if you ask Hawaii, Vanderbilt, ULM and Duke (their home opponents this year) they will tell you that Alabama is not as good as they think they are and that each one of those teams had a legitimate shot at beating the Tide at home at some points in the second half. Mike Shula was not the happiest of campers after the Duke game and it will be interesting to see how the players react to his hard nosed ways this week. He wasn't at all happy with the defense allowing 14 points to a horrendous Duke team and you can be sure that if Alabama does anything in this game it's going to be play some hardcore defense. The young players on this team have played enough games and practiced enough times to finally start to show what they can do on the field and make Ole Miss look like they should have never got off the bus in Tuscaloosa. This is a Shula statement game because the Tide need to improve before heading to Tennessee next week. In their last three games, the Tide average 22.0 points per game which is not great but it's okay. In those games they average 343.3 total yards of offense for 5.0 yards per play. Ole Miss has a decent defense and they allow only 17.0 points per game in their last three but it will be tough for them to play against a fired up Alabama team. On the ground, RB Ken Darby doesn't have a touchdown this season and he is having a tough Sophomore season. The Tide have had big problems running the ball this season but expect a breakout game with some big plays by Darby as Ole Miss are allowing 171.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.0 yards per carry. Alabama had one of their most productive rushing performances in the win over Ole Miss last year. In the air, QB John Parker Wilson is completing 60.4% of his passes for 7.7 yards per pass attempt in his last three games. He does throw a lot of stupid passes but that shouldn't be a problem against a pathetic Ole Miss secondary that have one interception in their last three games and that allow 6.5 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. The Rebels don't pick passes off, they don't sack QB's and if you give Parker Wilson enough time to make the big plays, he is going to stick it to you hard. Like I said earlier, Shula is pissed off and practice wasn't pleasant this week. The Crimson Tide have yet to dominate a game at home this week but this is going to be the game that turns their season around and possibly propels them to upset Tennessee next week or maybe even LSU in three weeks. I think they can win one of those games but the bottom line is that their second half of the season starts now and they need to be impressive.
Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
Alabama 27, Mississippi 6
UL Monroe Warhawks +9 (1 Unit)
Haha. Isn't it quite ironic that I am betting on the Warhawks right after I am betting on Alabama? I say that because the last time I even took a look at both teams is when I bet on ULM to cover the points against Alabama back in September and that ended up back firing in my face as the Warhawks couldn't hold on and Alabama ended up running away with the game late. ULM were one or two wins away from possibly winning the Sun Belt Conference last year and although this is supposed to be a rebuilding year, I like the way they have played. The Warhawks were 24 point underdogs in Kansas earlier this year and they almost won the game. They were also seven point underdogs last week against Arkansas State but couldn't get their offense together and ended up losing 10-6. In the end, the Warhawks are 1-4 on the season, their only win has come against a Division I-AA school in the season opener and Charlie Weatherbie's guys are bound to have a few bounces go their way. I really like the spot they are in this week because this is about the time of year where the Sun Belt Conference starts getting a little crazy and all the upsets start happening. The last time ULM was in Troy they lost an exciting 28-24 game as 14 point underdogs. The Warhawks average only 10.7 points per game in their last three games but guess what? That's better than Troy's offense in their last three. In those games, ULM average 275.3 total yards per game on 4.9 yards per play. Troy's defense is allowing 37.3 points per game in their last three games on 460.7 total yards and 6.9 yards per play in those games. ULM have had their best games this season when they can run the ball. They are averaging 125.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.0 yards per carry. This is RB Calvin Dawson's time to shine. He had 118 rushing yards against Alabama and is up against a defense allowing a crazy 258.7 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per carry in their last three games. Dawson is going to be the difference in this game. In the air, QB Kinsmon Lancaster is talented. He is completing 57.1% of his passes the last three games for 5.1 yards per pass attempt but with Troy having to keep Dawson under raps, he might find some big time openings downfield. Troy's defense is allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt and as long as Lancaster doesn't throw into heavy coverage, the Warhawks should have their best offensive games this season. This series goes way back to the 1970's and both schools know each other well. Weatherbie has said it many times that he thinks his team can get to a Bowl Game by winning the Conference and I believe him because he has taken two previous teams to Bowl Games (Navy and Utah State). The Warhawks will shock in this one.
The Troy Trojans are happy to be back home. They have been on the road since their September 2 home opener where they crushed Alabama State. They then hit the road where they almost beat Florida State, did well against Georgia Tech, got demolished and whipped in half in Nebraska and then ended the trip two weeks ago at UAB where they didn't look interested and lost 21-3. Now it's back home where things usually roll for the Trojans but I am now asking myself if this team ever gets up to play against weak teams like ULM or if their hardcore schedule against much better teams has them underestimating Conference games like this one. The 2004 edition of this team was as strong as they get but this is edition is like last year's and as I mentioned before, I don't think they are going to be up for home conference games like this one. Larry Blakeney has been the head coach here for 16 years but one thing we all know about Blakeney is that he almost never has his guys ready coming off a bye week. The Trojans are 2-8 straight up in their last 10 games after bye and 1-4 ATS in their last five games after a bye week. Now that I am looking at things, Tory have been good at home against Conference opponents over the last few years but they have shown weaknesses. The Trojans are averaging 7.7 points per game in their last three games on only 208.3 total yards per game and 3.4 yards per play in those games. It's tough to play against great opponents on the road and to get your offense on track in those games. ULM's defense is allowing 24.0 points per game in their last three games for 384.0 total yards offense and 5.8 yards per play. On the ground, Troy are averaging only 2.1 yards per carry in their last three games for only 69.0 rushing yards per game. ULM's defense is allowing 180.7 rushing yards per game in their last three for 4.6 yards per carry. Troy should have some success running the ball but like I said, their offense is maybe not in complete synch just yet. In the air, QB Omar Haugabook is good but he might needs a few games to get on track after playing some of the best defenses in the Country. He is passing for only 4.7 yards per pass attempt but has a good completion rate and should have a lot better protection than he has had against all the good conference teams they have been playing against. ULM's secondary is weak and have allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. However, like I mentioned before, this game all comes down to offensive rythm and coming off the bye week and having played against all those good teams without playing a Conference opponent is going to have a negative effect on this team. I like Troy to dominate in this Conference for the rest of the season but this might be the one that they talk about when they realize that they came one game short of winning the Conference.
Trend of the Game: ULM is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.
UL Monroe 21, Troy 17
California Golden Bears -7.5 (3 Units)
The California Golden Bears are the darkhorse team that might sneak into the National Championship game should they beat USC on November 18 and should they win out on the other games. Now I know they have been in the -7.5 or -8.5 line range many times this season and guess what? The Golden Bears are 3-0 ATS with a line of -8.5 this season. I locked in on this line at Pinnacle earlier this morning but as I am writing this about the game, I noticed it has gone back to -8.5 which should not be a concern. I would also bet 3 units on the -8.5 and would have no problems taking it all the way up to 10 or 13 points. That's why I don't understand when people buy the hook because if you don't like the 7.5 but you like the 7.0 why even bother betting on a game where you think .5 is going to make a difference? The home team has done well in the past in this series but the straight up winner is 20-5 ATS in the last 25 matchups and there is no chance in hell that California lose this game. The Golden Bears are deserving of a TOP 10 ranking and I say that because apart from their season opening shocker loss to Tennessee, they have demolished every single other opponent including that monster 45-24 home win against the Oregon Ducks last week that had many people shaking their heads in disbelief. The Golden Bears average a whopping 45.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done it on 438.7 total yards of offense and 7.1 yards per play. Washington State's defense has looked pretty damn good the last three weeks allowing only 14.7 points per game and only 295.3 total yards per game on 4.9 yards per play. Impressive but keep in mind that their opponents were Stanford (horrendous on offense), USC (not the same firepower as last year) and Oregon State (dead as water). California love to run the ball with RB Marshawn Lynch who is banged up but has 613 rushing yards on the year for 7.1 yards per carry. The Golden Bears average 172.0 rushing yards per game in their last three on 5.1 yards per carry and it's time to make a dent in the bogus Washington State run defense that is allowing only 2.5 yards per carry in their last three games. Alright their D-Line is not bad but the running game will setup the pass attack. In the air, QB Nate Longshore has been outstanding with his 17 touchdown passes and great accuracy. He is completing 65.1% of his passes the last three games for 9.6 yards per pass attempt and he rarely ever gets sacked. Washington State's secondary is overachieving and even then their last three opposing QB's have completed more thanh 60% of their passes for a whopping 7.2 yards per pass attempt in those games. The key for the Golden Bears in this game is to keep bringing the heat. Washington State are capable of big upsets but only against faltering offenses and the Golden Bears are far from that. In fact, they are a TOP 10 offense in the Country and I say they are going to smoke another road opponent.
The Washington State Cougars have not been to a Bowl Game since the 2003 season when they went to the Holliday Bowl but all that could change this year if they manage to pull off some upset after this game and win three of their next five games once again following this game. In their only two home games of the season, the Cougars blew the living crap out of Idaho 56-0 hhere in Pullman and then two weeks ago they managed to stay close with USC eventually losing 28-22. One thing oddsmakers and sports bettors have to understand here is that California's offense is nothing like the USC offense. They are much more advanced in terms of returning players and having players who have played in the system for years. So you can toss the USC classic out the window because it just doesn't matter right now. The Cougars are coming off a less than impressive 13-6 road win over Oregon State but I mean who doesn't beat Oregon State these days? The Cougars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus the Golden Bears and all the games seem to have more than 65 points scored. I don't know what else to think about this Washington State team other than they are upset worthy but not all the time like some people think. They are averaging 23.7 points per game in their last three games and have done it on an impressive 414.0 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play. California's defense has 8 returning starters and they have played together a long time. The Golden Bears last three games were against Arizona State, Oregon State and Oregon. Some powerful offense in there. In those games, they allowed only 19.3 points per game on 357.3 total yards per game and 5.2 yards per play. Considering their opponents thats damn good. Washington State's running game is averaging 152.3 yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry in their last three but the fun is over because both Oregon and Arizona State had problems moving the ball on the ground and the Golden Bears allow only 3.7 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Alex Brink is completing 57.9% of his passes the last three games for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. California's secondary is coming off a few masterful performances where they allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt but intercepted 2.3 passes per game and sacked QB's 3.7 times per game. The Washington State Cougars are overachieving on offense against weaker opponents. This is the best defensive team Jeff Tedford has ever had since his arrival and I expect them to really flex some of that defensive muscle in this game. It's rare that they allow more than 20 points in a game and I don't see the Cougars having anykind of offensive success in this one.
Trend of the Game: California is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
California 35, Washington State 14
RECAP:
Boston College +2.5
Colorado State +5.5 ***POMW***
Iowa -17.5
Wisconsin -8
Texas Tech -7 ***POW***
Ohio State -14.5
Alabama -15
UL Monroe +9
California -7.5
Good Luck to all this week!
:cheers:
