MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Record: 29-27-2 (-1.10 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 19-20-2 ATS (-3.30)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-7 (+2.20 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 1-2 (-6.00 units)
SYSTEM PLAYS WILL BE INDICATED IN RED
Alright, well Marshall didn't work out on my formula plays but I am sticking to the system and adding some plays of my own for the hell of it. I am looking for that breakout week (coming out party) and I have a feeling I am very close to achieving that. Good Luck to all this week.
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Thursday, October 5
North Carolina State Wolfpack +10.5 (1 Unit)
It's Thursday Night, my deep gut says to go with what looks to be an easy 10.5 to cover for Florida State but after going over several variables and intangibles again, I am done joining the public on most of their plays for weekday games. We have been getting burned the last 2-3 weeks and people have yet to learn and are still betting all in one bunch. Tonight on ESPN we get to see the Florida State Seminoles who are coming off a BYE week but who most recently spanked around Rice 55-7 but lost to Clemson the game before that. I know what you're saying, FSU is 4-1 SU and ATS on Thursday Night games but then again, Marshall were something like 7-1 on Wednesday nights and that all came crashing down last night. You see, Florida State must not have much to get up for in the morning because they have NC State this wee and Duke the next which pretty much means we might see a few lax efforts by these guys before these two games are all said and done. Bobby Bowden wishes they were playing a much stronger opponent this week because he wants his guys to come out with full intensity. The Seminoles are averaging a decent 33.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on 361.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play. NC State's defense is pretty damn young and they do have some holes but they are an inpired bunch who are allowing 24.0 points per game in their last three games on 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, RB Lorenzo Booker and company have rushed for 144.7 yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry in their last three and should have a good day on the ground against NC State who allow 182.3 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry over their last three. QB Drew Weatherford has played well enough lately to be winning big games but he has still thrown only three touchdown passes with two interceptions which just doesn't cut it at this level. He is completing 62.8% of his passes over the last three games for 7.6 yards per pass attempt and although NC State have been getting torched on the deep ball for 7.9 yards per pass attempt over their last three games, opposing QB's are completing only 51.3% of their passes over that same span of games. Here is the x-factor in this game. FSU have fumbled 4.0 times per game over their last three games which means a total of 12 fumbles with six lost. The NC State defense is going to have to play for strips tonight and they are going to have to play steady defense. As good as their secondary is, and they are damn good, the LB's crew has to do a better job in coverage and they have to make sure Lorenzo Booker doesn't run for 200+ yards in this game. As long as they can pressure Weatherford, they should keep this close.
The NC State Wolfpack are not a team I would be betting on regularly but this is Thursday Night, my Toronto Maple Leafs are not worth watching tonight so I am going to be a unit on Chuck Amato's boys coming off a BYE Week. I remember hearing a few years back that Amato always has his guys ready to play against FSU because he used to be an assistant coach there for 13 years and these games mean a lot more to him than some of the other games. In other words, this is the big game on NC State's schedule and this is their biggest game of the season. Amato is also one of the best coaches when it comes to using a BYE Week to work on fundamentals and what not (yeah Lou Holtz loves fundamentals) and in fact, Amato and the Wolfpack are 9-2 ATS the last 11 seasons the week following the BYE Week. The last time Florida State were here, the Wolfpack returned the same amount of starters (10 starters) as they do this year and they lost a close 17-10 to the #11 ranked Seminoles. In 2002, Florida State came in here and left with a disappointing 10 point win as they were ranked #14 in the Country at the time. Well Amato has won games in Tallahasee but now it's time to try and win one in Raleigh for the home fans. The Wolfpack average 17.0 points per game over their last three and are coming off a huge win over BC on a last minute hail mary type pass. They are going to have to work hard tonight because they don't average more than 300 yards of offense per game over their last three and FSU's strength is their defense as they allow 293.7 total yards of offense per game on only 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB's Andre Brown (6.4 yards per carry but only 44 touches???) and Toney Baker (4.3 yards per carry) are going to have to be used a lot more in this game seeing that NC State average only 99.7 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry over their last three games. No more of this conservative stuff Amato, it's time to unleash this vanilla offense you have run all season. The Noles don't give up much on the ground and they have the best D-Line in the ACC. However, FSU are allowing 24.0 points per game over their last three games and they are beatable with the right coaching strategy. In the air, I hate to say but QB Marcus Stone is horrendous, however, you can expect Stone to have less than 20 pass attempts in this game because when the Wolfpack beat FSU last year, they beat them by running the ball down their throats and had Stone just stick to the basics. I wouldn't let Stone throw anything into coverage. Even though FSU's secondary is beatable, small dump passes are all I would allow because Stone is mistake prone and every mistake counts in this game. So basically you can expect to see tons of Andre Brown tonight as the Wolfpack try to slow this game down to a snails pace, controlling the time of possession and getting Bobby Bowden all frustrated. The dreams of National Title are pretty much gone for the Seminoles so don't be surprised to see another loss in the books...a shocking loss.
Trend of the Game: The UNDERDOG is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
NC State 13, Florida State 10
Utah Utes -2.5 (5 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MIDWEEK***
There is no doubt about it in my mind that TCU are going to come out in this game and probably have one of their best showings all season after the loss to BYU at home last week that knocked them right out of the TOP 25 standings in the Country. Gary Patterson is going to have his guys fired up for this game but my question to all of you guys who are on TCU for this game is how fired up can you be and how good can you be on a Thursday Night road game this week, when you couldn't even win on a Thursday Night at home last week? Let's be real here for a few minutes, TCU is crushed after the loss and recovering might be quite difficult. Since Patterson has been here, the Horned Frogs are only 7-7 after straight up losses and that tells me that he's not the type of coach to have his guys fully motivated after big losses. I mean TCU is still a very respectable 3-1 on the season and things could still go their way but they got very lucky in some of the earlier games and their luck is about to run out. A lot of people also like the OVER in this game but if Patterson learned anything after the loss to BYU is that playing defense is going to determined what TCU does with their season and allowing 31 points like that again is not acceptable. In their last three games, TCU have averaged 25.0 points per on 393. total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play. That's good but can they hold Utah to less? Utah's defense is still stellar, allowing only 14.3 points per game over the last three games and they allow an impressive 261.0 total yards of offense on 4.4 yards per play over that same span of three games. Utah defense? at home? on a Thursday? Yup. On the ground, TCU is averaging a whopping 197.3 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry over the last three games but have a problem in this one because Utah allow only 3.7 yards per carry over their last three games. In the air, QB Jeff Ballard is going to have to have the game of his life if he wants a shot at winning this. Over the last three games, he is completing 59.4% of his passes but for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Ballard is going to be under constant pressure from the Utah defense and seeing that he has not thrown many interceptions this season, this Utah defens who have 9 interceptions over their last three games, are bound to make Ballard pay for lazy throws. The last three QB's to face this defense have completed only 48.4% of their passes for only 5.8 yards per pass attempt and apart from the Boise State and UCLA games, the Utes have not allowed more than 10 points in their other three games. Incredible. TCU is one of the most penalized teams I have seen in a long time and it's going to cost them tonight against a very disciplined Utah defense that can frustrate most of their opponents.
The Utah Utes are coming off one of their most disappointing and crushing losses in years. Boise State walked in this place last week on HomeComing and handed the Utes a 36-6 loss. However, that loss could be the best thing to happen to this team since their 11-0 season and I say that because it's gut check time for the Utes and another pathetic peformance tonight would seriously stirr things up in Salt Lake City. Utah is 3-1 on the season (2-2 ATS) but have not beat any teams of significance and have not shown that they can easily make it back to a Bowl Game. This was supposed to be a season where Utah goes unbeaten again as many experts had predicted but the opener was a disaster against UCLA and the game last week against Boise State was an even bigger disaster. Regardless, Utah quite clearly remembers their double OT loss to TCU in Fort Worth last year, a game that snapped their 18 game winning streak and that sent this team into a bit of dissaray. A lot of people thought Utah should be underdogs in this game which is the most probable reason for the public being on TCU for this game. Well Utah was 9-2 ATS as a home favorite the two season prior to their 2005 campaign and I expect this to be a statement game for Kyle Whittingham because his boys have not done enough for him to be considered worthy of his position as head coach of this football team. The Utes average 29.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on 312.7 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play. Not impressive and nothing to go nuts about but there is room for improvement. On the ground, Utah has had success running the ball as they have 160.0 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry over their last three games. However, TCU's defensive line is one of the best in the Country and Utah would be making a mistake if they run the ball more than 30 times in this game. In the air, QB Brett Ratliff has to show us the Brett Ratliff that won us so much cash in the past. Ratliff is completing only 48.2% of his passes the last three games for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt but this is the time to turn him loose and see what he can do working behind the best Offensive Line in the Conference. TCU's secondary is not that great and they don't pickoff many passes which means there are no excuses for Ratliff in this game and he has to be ready to lead the team. TCU don't allow a high completion rate for opposing QB's but they do allow a rather high 6.7 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and there isn't a single defensive player on TCU that can keep up with WR Derrek Richards if he is on his game. The key in this game will be to air the ball out, forget about running so much and make sure you don't let Ratliff get too excited because he makes too many mistakes like that. I see Ratliff having one of his best game as a Ute in this one and his 8 touchdown passes this season have to be considered when it comes to the play calling by the offensive coaches. Ratliff has star power but he has yet to show it. Well now is the time to unleash the beast and show us what he is all about.
Trend of the Game: Utah are 3-0 ATS in their last three games that follow a loss of 20+ points.
Utah 24, TCU 17
Friday, October 6
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +31.5 (1 Unit)
Do you public team players have any clue as to what you are doing joining everyone else on Louisville for this game? I mean how can you trust the public plays like this one after watching the last 6-7 ESPN Nationally Televised games go to the underdog? Okay well almost 80% of the public are already on Louisville for this game and Pinnacle is not giving me anything better than 31.5. What I find strange is that every other books has gone up to 33 or 34 but there is some action at Pinnacle that is keeping the line where it is and I figure that if Louisville is going to cover the spread, they are going to cover it by 40+ points and the small difference in points won't screw me. Betting against the Cardinals has been gambling suicide this year as they are 4-0 ATS and are looking more and more like the 2004 team that was 10-1 ATS on the season. They are 3-0 ATS against current Sun Belt Conference teams and have outscored them 157-24. Sports Gambling suicide it might be but I am willing to take a few Terrell Owens pills for this game and hope for the best possible outcome which would be some sort of late touchdown to moose Louisville backers. The Cardinals are coming off a BYE week and although this team doesn't have much to work on when it comes to fundamentals of football, I don't see how they could be motivated to play against this Middle Tennesee team with their conference opener on deck next week. The Cardinals average a ridiculous 44.0 points per game in their last three games on 523.0 total yards of offense and 7.4 yards per play. That's just insane. However, Middle Tennessee defense (and I know it's just the Sun Belt Conference) are ranked in the TOP 50 of all four major defensive categories in College Football which means they have a good shot at covering. They allow only 17.8 points per game in their last three games and they have allowed only 244.2 total yards of offense on 4.4 yards per play in those same games. Don't forget, they did play Oklahoma during that span. Louisville loves running the ball and why not when you have guys who can lead to rushing for 249.5 rushing yards per game in your last three games on 5.8 yards per carry. However, Middle Tennessee have some big players in the middle and although they are going to be outsized and overpowered all night long, they are allowing only 94.4 rushing yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry over their last three games and slowing down the Cardinals ground attack is going to probably work better for Middle Tennessee than it did for other teams. In the air, QB Hunter Cantwell is one of the best backups in the Nation, if the not the best, and he is completing 64.9% of his passes over the last three weeks for 9.7 yards per pass attempt. However, the Middle Tennessee defense is young and inexperienced but have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete only 56.3% of their passes for only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. There is no doubt in my mind that Louisville can score at will in this game but how much do they really want to show from their playbook and how badly do they want to burry the Blue Raiders? What I find ironic is that the last time Louisville played in the state of Tennessee was back in that 2004 season when they went to Memphis and won the game but lost their only ATS of the season. I hope the Tennessee curse lives on.
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders definitely know they can't win this game but can they put up enough of a fight to keep it closer than the experts and the public think? I don't see why not. This game is being played in Nashville, Tennessee on the home stadium of the Tennessee Titans and the stadium is close enough for both schools to send a huge amount of fans for what should be a blowout game but also a fun game for both school to participate in. Let me tell you how this Middle Tennessee team has impressed me this season. They opened with a nice home win against Florida International (the first CFB game of the season for everyone) and then followed that up with a decent 24-10 loss and showing at Maryland. Then there was the game against Oklahoma in Norman where the Blue Raiders got blown to pieces and lost 59-0. Don't expect the same kind of blowout this week because the Blue Raiders responded to the Oklahoma loss by blowing away North Texas 35-0 last week and if that wasn't a statement game, I don't know what was. The key in this game is going to be composure. We all know their defense is going to allow a ton of points but the offense is going to have to contribute if they are goin to cover. Well with 9 returning starters on offense, I trust that they can score those 1-2 touchdowns needed to cover. They average 19.2 points per game in their last three games and have done so on 251.6 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play. Nothing impressive and nothing special but I do see them playing well against a Louisville defense allowing 4.7 yards per play in their last three games which is quite high for Louisville standards. One thing I do know is that the Cardinals want to avoid more injuries at all costs. There is going to be no room to run for Middle Tennessee in this game and as much as they try and establish some running room, it's just not going to be there against a defense allowing 2.2 yards per carry in their last three games. However, QB Clint Marks is a Senior and learning this new offense has not been easy but he is slowly but surely coming around to Stockstill's new ways and I see him having success in this game. Marks is completing just over 50% of his passes the last three games for 5.4 yards per pass attempt but I have a feeling this is the one game where Middle Tennessee are going to try new things and pull them off. Louisville's defense is stout and they allow opposing QB's to complete only 45.5% of their passes over the last three games but are allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt in those games which tells me that the gun slinging Marks is capable of a huge game here. The Blue Raiders have run the ball a lot more than they have thrown this season but it's time to let Marks show what he can do as he is close to becoming one of Middle Tennessee's leading all time passers. I know it doesn't matter much but Middle Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games before a BYE Week and we are going to see them give it their all in this game tonight.
Trend of the Game: Middle Tennessee are 4-0 ATS in their last four that follow a game where they rushed for 200+ yards.
Louisville 48, Middle Tennessee 22
Saturday, October 7
System Play #2
Pittsburgh Panthers -7 (4 Units)
The Pittsburgh Panthers are a red hot commodity right now and this is their week of gut check time. Alright, I know what most of you are going to argue. You're going to tell me that Pittsburgh have a horrendous record in the Carrier Dome over the years and that this is the one place where they struggle to win everytime they play here. Well yeah that's partially true but how quickly everyone forgets that Pitt came into the Carrier Dome in 2002 and won by 24 points. Also, everyone keeps talking about Syracuse and how good they are this year and how they always cover against Pitt but once again, did you all know that Pittsburgh are 3-1 ATS versus the Orange in their last four meetings and 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings (2-3 ATS in the Carrier Dome). So why would covering a touchdown spread be so hard for the Panthers who are playing against an overachieving Syracuse team? Who knows. The Panthers are coming off a 45-3 home win over Toledo last week and it seems like they are still bitter from their 15 point home loss to Michigan State a few weeks back. That was Pitt's only loss this season and Dave Wanndtedt still has dreams of winning the Big East which he could quite possibly still do if Pitt can win out on the season (unlikely). The Panthers average 39.7 points per game in their last three games this season on 412.7 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 6.7 yards per play. They are going up against a Syracuse defense that has allowed 23.0 points per game in their last three on 394.0 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, the Panthers have not had to do much to win but still average 137.0 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry over their last three games. However, don't expect much to be working on the ground against a solid Syracuse D-Line that allow only 3.3 yards per carry over their last three games. QB Tyler Palko is a darkhorse candidate for the Heisman Trophy if you ask me. He has completed 69.8% of his passes over the last three games for 9.6 yards per pass attempt. He has almost 1400 passing yards on the season, has thrown 14 TD passes and has connected with superstar WR Derek Kinder six times. Syracuse is going to get torched in the air as they allow their last three opposing QB's to complete more than 60% of their passes for a whopping 7.0 yards per pass attempt. Sure they have a great pass rush but Pittsburgh O-Line is solid and allow less than 2.0 sacks per game in their last three. Palko is going to have another big game in this one against a very young and inexperienced Syracuse secondary. I will be shocked if Pittsburgh don't score at least 30 points in this game.
The Syracuse Orangemen are on fuckin fire. They are 3-2 on the year but are leading the Nation with their 5-0 ATS record and does anyone really dare bet against these guys? Yeah...I do. I say that because they got lucky in their last game winning and covering in overtime against a very good Wyoming team and those overtime games usually result in an ATS loss the next week. The favorite has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams and I don't see why things would change. You have to admit that Syracuse is seriously overachieving this season and the bad luck is bound to strike them sooner or later. The Orangemen have three wins and those wins were against Wyoming, Miami Ohio and Illinois. Their losses came against Wake Forest and Iowa and if you didn't know by now, Pittsburgh is possibly the best team Syracuse is going to have seen all season. Greg Robinson has a very young team in front of him and although it has not cost him any games yet this season, he is in for a big surprise in this game. I don't see how Syracuse is going to keep up with the intensity of the Panthers. Syracuse is averaging a whopping 35.0 points per game in their last three games on 319.7 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play. However, Pitt as they like to be called this season, are allowing only 15.7 points per game in their last three and opponents average only 305.0 total yards of offense on 4.5 yards per play over that same span of games. The Orangemen have been stout running the ball this season and average an impressive 169.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games. However, those games were being played while ahead and I don't see them being ahead at any point in this game. Pittsburgh has allowed 170.7 rushing yards per game in their last three (which is surprising) but look for them to do much better in this one. Syracuse QB Perry Patterson is completing only 54.0% of his passes in their three wins for 7.2 yards per pass attempt and he has had success throwing the deep ball. However, Pittsburgh secondary is tough to beat and they have allowed only 4.6 yards per pass attempt over their last three games which means Patterson is going to struggle. They are also intercepting 1.3 passes per game over their last three and with the pressure they are going to send in this one, expect Patterson to make some game changing mistakes.
Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.
Pittsburgh 31, Syracuse 13
System Play #3
Wisconsin Badgers -20 (5 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
This is going to be fun. Northwestern are by far the worst team in the Big 10 this season and although you can't blame them, you really can't be bothered by this because they are going to be fun to bet against all season long. This is Northwestern's third straight road game and seeing that they are 0-2 on their current road trip, team morale is definitely at an all-time low and the Wildcats will be happy to come out of this game with both their legs and arms still in place. In their first game of the tripe, the Wildcats lost to Nevada on National TV and they then followed that game with a loss at Penn State. They are 1-3 ATS on the season right now, they are 1-4 straight up and since this is still a season of tragedy for the Wildcats (having lost coach Walker and all), I can almost guarantee you 100% that the only thing on every player's mind on that Northwestern sideline is to make it out of this game and head home right after for a home game against Purdue. These guys have been on the road for too long and have not had to play three straight road games in almost 10 years. The Wildcats are averaging only 14.0 points per game in their last three games and they have struggled badly on offense averaging only 290.7 total yards per game on 4.7 yards per play. Wisconsin's defense has shown to be one of the best in the Big 10 this season and they allow only 14.7 points per game in their last three and that was done on 239.0 total yards per game and only 4.0 yards per play. Wow...impressive. On the ground, RB Tyrell Sutton is still one of the best backs in the Nation but the rest of his team sucks. The Cats average 161.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry in their last three games but Wisconsin's D-Line is going to manhandle the Northwestern line in this one as they allow only 97.0 rushing yards per game in their last three. In the air, QB Mike Kafka is a go for this game and is completing only 50.6% of his passes the last three games for 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Well Wisconsin have a steady pass rush and they are allowing only 5.2 yards per pass attempt in their last three games as well as intercepting at least one pass per game in each of their last three. They had a small letdown against Indiana late in the game last week but this defense is stout and I see them shutting Northwestern out completely in this this game.
The Wisconsin Badgers are my favorite team to bet on this season and I am now 3-0-1 ATS when betting on them. Did you know that I have bet on every single one of their bettable games this season and won or pushed? The Badgers return home after two big games on the Big 10 road and although they would have liked to beat Michigan in Ann Arbour, they are happy with their two game performance and happy to still have a longshot at winning the Big 10 if some of the other teams falter down the stretch. The big game for Wisky is next week against Minnesota but for now Northwestern is going to be another fun scrimmage outing like last week. Did you know that the home team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these two teams? Camp Randall is going to be loud and proud as usual and that means that Wisconsin should be able to escape with another big win. In their two home games this season they have allowed only 10 points and since San Diego State's offense is probably a small notch better than Northwestern's, I don't know how Wisconsin doesn't pitch a shutout in this one. The coaching staff was pissed off after last week's win because the Badgers allowed an unecessary 17 garbage time points to the Hoosiers. In their last three games Wisconsin is averaging 26.3 points per game on 386.3 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. Northwestern have not played some big time offensive teams but they have still allowed 23.3 points per game in their last three on 338.3 yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. However, this is their third straight road game and this is when the defense really starts to fade. On the ground, RB PJ Hill has been the surprise player of the year in the Big 10. He is now at 598 rushing yards on the season with 8 touchdowns and is one of the best backs Wisconsin has seen in recent years (which is saying a lot). The Badgers average 169.3 rushing yards per game in thier last three on 4.3 yards per carry. PJ Hill should have another huge game against an NW defense that allow 158.7 rushing yards per game in their last three for 3.9 yards per carry. The running game should setup QB John Stocco in the air attack. Stocco is completing 58.4% of his passes over the last three games for 7.3 yards per pass attempt and he has not thrown many interceptions. Northwestern's secondary is allowing a decent 6.3 yards per pass attempt but it's the small things that Wisconsin does that move the chains and that will be the difference in this game.
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Wisconsin 30, Northwestern 3
System Play #4
Illinois Fighting Illini -7.5 (1 Unit)
The Indiana Hoosiers are shell shocked, they don't know where to go, what to do or even how to play football anymore. I mean the crazy story season continues for these guys. It all started with a huge win at Western Michigan, was followed by their head coach Terry Hoeppner needing open brain surgery, then came to loss to Division 1-AA Southern Illinois at home, followed by a loss to a shitty UConn team and now the latest saga a blowout loss to Wisconsin at home last week. Now the Hoosiers head on the road where on paper they should have a big time chance of winning this game. However, having a shot on paper means one thing and having to go Champaign against a team picking up serious steam is another. The Hoosiers are now 2-3 on the season which is not too bad. This is one of the games they had circled on their calendars as winnable and I don't doubt that they are going to try very hard to win this game. Easier said than done against a Ron Zook team that is playing some damn good football. Indiana also have history against them this week because the home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two teams. Indiana is averaging 17.3 points per game in thier last three games but they have done it on a pathetic 262.0 total yards per game and only 3.8 yards per play. Well Illinois' defense is finally starting to play well even though they have allowed 25.0 points per game in their last three, they have also allowed only 324.0 total yards per game on 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, Indiana is averaging only 81.0 rushing yards per game 2.6 yards per carry in their last three games while Illinois allow only 3.7 yards per carry over their last three games. In the air, QB Kellen Lewis has shown signs of brilliance but has also made some big mistakes. I don't know who is starting this game for Indiana but regardless, the Hoosiers are completing only 46.9% of their passes over the last three games for only 4.8 yards per pass attempt. They have thrown 1.3 interceptions per game and the line is allowing almost three sacks per game. Illinois' defense is going to have to pressure Indiana's QB in this game because their secondary allow big plays and cutting down on the big plays includes pressuring the QB. I don't know how this Illinois defense is going to play because they are young and lack experience. Should be interesting.
The Illinois Fighting Illini are coming off their second win of the season...hold on here...did I just say they already have two wins on the season? Whoa...they had two wins all of last season and are already one win away from topping that total under Ron Zook. My guess is that Zook is starting to party with students like he did at Florida because it seems like his young team is really starting to rally around him and parties with students would defintiely get a team a lot closer. What people fail to understand about Illinois is that even though they have matched their two wins from last season, they are seriously underachieving at this point in the season and this is a talented bunch of guys who could make some noise come next season in the Big 10. I mean they return 19 starters on the team. They three losses came against Rutgers (who are red hot this year and one of the top teams in the Nation), against Syracuse (they actually almost beat Cuse but a few turnovers gave the game to the Orangemen) and Iowa (losing by only 17 points to Iowa is not that bad at all for a basement Big 10 team). The win last week against Michigan State was huge and was very indicative of what these guys are capable of. The Fighting Illini average 17.0 points per game in their last three and average 367.7 total yards of offens eon 5.5 yards per play over that same span of games. However, the best part is that they get to play against an Indiana defense that is allowing 33.7 points per game in their last three and that is allowing 403.0 total yards per game on 5.9 yards per play over that same span of games. On the ground, RB Pierre Thomas is the MVP of this team and he has led the Illini to 161.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry in their last three games. I think Pierre might rush for 200 yards in this game because Indiana allow 236.7 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry in their last three and this one could ugly. What peopel don't know about Illinois is that they are using a new QB in Isiah Williams. This kid was highly recruited out of high school and he rushed for 103 yards against Michigan State. Whoa. The combination of Williams and Pierre should result in another huge rushing day for Illinois. The Illini average 7.0 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and if Williams wants to throw the ball, he should have a huge game against an Indiana defense that is allowing a whopping 9.1 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. Ouch. Illinois can blow Indiana right out of this stadium if they play a mistake free game. However, they do make mistakes and for that simple reason I am not betting huge on them. However, Ron Zook guys are going to win by at least 10 points in this game and this is going to be a big statement game for these guys...they deserve it anyways.
Trend of the Game: Illinois is 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games that follow a game where they allowed less than 100 rushing yards.
Illinois 38, Indiana 23
System Play #5
Kent State Golden Flashes -24 (4 Units)
Oh boy...what the hell am I doing dropping cash on Kent State as 24 point favorites in a non-Conference game? I don't think Kent State have been favored by this many points in their entire history but like many of you have been talking about since the season started, Temple is going to be a weekly fade in College Football and now that Temple covered their first game of the season, the public will be off the Temple fade and the lines will be lowered like they have been for this game. Kent State is the real deal and people fail to realize this. The Golden Flashes are 3-2 on the season and are well on their way to being in the MAC Conference Title game come the end of November. The Golden Flashes have been money in the bank since their first game loss to Minnesota and are 4-0 ATS since. Why should we fade these guys when they are one of the hottest teams in the Country? They are coming off a huge home win against Akron and this is the week where they can really flex some mucles and show that they are not just another team acting like posers. This is a great chance for Kent State to make a statement against a team that is joining the MAC Conference next season. The Golden Flashes are averaging 30.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on 401.3 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. I want to laugh when I read that Temple have allowed 48.7 points per game in their last three games and that they have been allowing 6.8 yards per play to opposing teams over that same span of games. On the ground, RB Eugene Jarvis and the running attack average 171.3 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry in their last three and they are up against a Temple defense that has allowed 237.3 rushing yards per game on 6.5 yards per carry in their last three. Wow...that's some fade material...big time. In the air, QB Julien Edelman has been great, completing 69.2% of his passes for a whopping 10.6 yards per pass attempt over the last three games. He is up against a Temple defense that allows just about any play and that allows 7.2 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. I don't know what else to say about this game but I do know that Kent State won't have a letdown offensively because they were offensively challenged in 2005 and now want to show that they too can score 40 points against this pathetic Temple team that doesn't belong in I-A football.
The Temple Owls are a sad ass team with sad ass players and a sad ass excuse for not having a good team. I don't even know what their excuse is for fielding this kind of team but I do know that will probably not cover more than 2 games this season. Seeing that their last game they covered the big spread againstVanderbilt, it's now time to fade them again because I have no doubt in my mind that they cannot score any kind of points against this Kent State defense. Temple have scored more than 10 points only once this season and it last week in Vanderbilt and now that they return home, I think they go right back to the type of performance we saw them put up versus Louisville earlier this season. I remember quite well last season when both teams were just as pathetic as the other and I would have never thought that Kent State would ever be favored on the road against this Temple team but they are. The Owls have been underdogs of less than 30 points only once this season and they actually managed to almost win that game against another MAC opponent in Buffalo. Well that was then and this is now and this is going to be another blowout loss. Temple are averaging only 7.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on only 192.0 total yards of offense and 3.2 yards per play. Wow...that sucks big time. Kent State have a very tough defense to beat as they allow only 10.7 points per game in their last three and have done so by allowing only 304.3 total yards of offense on 4.3 yards per play per game. I don't see how Temple is going to run the ball because their offensive line is outsized by all teams and they rush for only 64.0 yards per game in their last three on 2.0 yards per carry....that's not a joke. Also, Kent State's defense allows 120.0 rushing yards per game but they should hold Temple to a reasonable number in this one. In the air, QB's Adam DiMichele and Vaughn Charlton have thrown one touchdown pass and 9 interceptions combined. Enough said. I don't even have to tell you anything else other than they average 5.3 yards per pass attempt and get sacked left and right. Kent State's defense is allowing only 5.3 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and they average 5.0 sacks per game. With the kind of pressure they are going to bring in this game, they should be able to force a plethora of turnovers and turn this into their biggest blowout in almost 40 years. Now that would be something else for this Kent State program.
Trend of the Game: Golden State is 7-1 ATS in their last eight wins following a straight up ML win.
Kent State 48, Temple 7
System Play #6
Michigan Wolverines -15 (2 Units)
As much as I would like to tell you guys that we are in for a thrilling game between two huge rivals, I unfortunately have to announce that the Michigan State Spartans are done for the year, they have packed up their stuff and folded like a cheap tent. All this comes after blowing a huge lead against Notre Dam two weeks ago. Can you believe they actually lost to Illinois last week? I can't. Usually when a team loses a game the way they lost to Notre Dame at home, that team goes into a downspiral for about 2-3 weeks and this is week #2 of that downspiral. With Ohio State on deck at home next week, I think the Spartans are going to go AWOL for another game and concentrate more on pulling off the big upset at home against the #1 team in the Country next week. Michigan State looked like they had it all against Notre Dame until things blew up in their faces and they went on to lose the game in unbelievable fashion. Now they have to face a Michigan team is on a mission like we have not seen for years. Did you know that Michigan State is only 13-21-1 ATS in their last 35 Big 10 road games and that doesn't encourge many people to be ton the reeling Spartans. Michigan State are going to be without RB Javon Ringer (biggest loss) and QB Drew Stanton has some badly bruised ribs. The Spartans average 31.7 points per game in their last three outings and have done so on 393.3 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play. That's impressive. However, Michigan's defense is even more impressive, allowing 16.0 points per game in their last three on only 272.0 total yards per game 4.2 yards per play. Wow...now that's defense. Michigan State average 221.7 rushing yards per game in their last three but now that Ringer is out and Stanton is hurt, the Spartans are going to struggle badly against a Michigan defense that is allowing only 41.3 rushing yards per game on 1.8 yards per carry over their last three games. In the air, Stanton is completing 58.7% of his passes over the last three games for 6.9 yards per pass attempt but the offensive line is allowing a lot of sacks and the pressure has resulted in three interceptions for Stanton (the last three games). Michigan's defense allow only 50.8% of passes to be completed against them in their last three and they allow only 5.5 yards per pass attempt in those games. As long as the Wolverines defense is playing well, Michigan State are going to struggle with injuries in this game and scoring points in Ann Arbour is going to be more difficult than it has even been in the John L. Smith days. Spartans should struggle this week.
Michigan is on top of the world right now and I don't blame them for talking about winning the Big 10 this season. I have no doubt in my mind that their November 18 game against Ohio State is going to be for the Big 10 Title as well as a chance to possibly play in the BCS Championship game. The Wolverines are a perfect 5-0 on the season, they have looked like a Championship team, played like a Championship team and made all their haters look a little bit stupid. This is some impressive stuff they are doing. Their three home games have been blowout wins, they have gone on the road and taken care of Notre Dame as well as Minnesota and now they have another Big 10 game at home in front of their rejuvenated fans. I know the home team has not covered a game in three years when it comes to this series but prior to those three years the home team was dominant and look for Michigan to revive that trend in this game. Lloyd Carr is proving all his naysayers wrong and is putting together one of his best Michigan seasons ever. This game is just another game that Michigan has to play until November 18 rolls around and once it does roll around, the Wolverines are going to be ready. Michigan is averaging 34.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done it on 393.3 total yards of offense and an impressive 6.0 yards per play. Michigan State's defense has been weak and they have allowed 28.7 points per game in their last three games. Not only that, the Spartans are allowing 371.3 total yards per game on a whopping 6.2 yards per play in their last three which should open to Michigan door for a blowout win like the 49-3 win in 2002. On the ground, RB Mike Hart has led this team to 155.0 rushing yards per game in their last three on 3.7 yards per carry but Hart should have a lot of success against a Spartans defense that allows a whopping 4.7 yards per carry in their last three games. When things go to the air, QB Chad Henne has been excellent the last three games, completing 67.6% of his passes for an impressive 10.1 yards per pass attempt. The Michigan State defense is very vulnerable to big passing plays as they are allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and have been torched by some of the best QB's. Well not it's Michigan turn to have fun at the expense of the fading Spartans and seeing that Michigan State have so many key injuries, I would like to think that is going to turn into a big blowout or something close to it. Anyways, the number is too low and I am taking advantage of a bad line that is doing nothing but respecting a rivalry of the past.
Trend of the Game: Michigan is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Big 10 games.
Michigan 34, Michigan State 13
System Play #7
Colorado State Rams -15 (2 Units)
The UNLV Rebels were a 15 point underdog last year against Colorado State but that game was at home. Although they did cover the 15 points in that game, they still lost the game by four and Colorado State did not look impressive at all. The Rebels are slightly improved this season and are playing in a system that takes time to develop. Since winning their season opener against Idaho State at home 54-10, they have lost their last three games, two on the road and one at home, and have shown no signs of improvement from last season. UNLV is something like 9-1 ATS the last 10 seasons when it comes to playing their first road conference game of the season but I won't let that stat faze and me and I would rather go against it and see myself win some nice cash. What that stat fails to indicate is that although they have played well in their first road games of the season, they are only 10-19 ATS the last four years against the Mountain West Conference and I don't see any of that changing today. In their last game, UNLV looked lost against a good Nevada offense and they got blown out 31-3 in front of the hometown fans. Now they hit the road and it's time to get killed again. The Rebels are averaging only 8.7 points per game in their last three games and are averaging only 263.3 total yards of offense on 3.9 yards per play. Colorado State have one of their strongest defenses in years and they are allowing only 20.3 points per game in their last three on a very respectable 282.3 total yards per game and 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, UNLV are averaging only 62.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and that comes on 2.1 yards per carry. The Colorado State defense is allowing only 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games and should have no problems forcing the Rams to throw the ball. In the air, QB Rocky Hinds has not played well completing only 50.4% of his passes and throwing one touchdown and three interceptions. He is passing for only 5.3 yards per pass attempt in his last three games, getting sacked 3.7 times per game in those games and is having trouble getting this offense going. Well Colorado State allow 6.2 yards per pass attempt in their last three and like I said, they are going to force Hinds and the Rebels to throw the ball which should resutl in turnovers that turn into nice points for the Rams. I just don't see this UNLV offense improving enough this week on the road to lose by less than 20 points.
The Colorado State Rams only won six games last year but it looks like Sunny Lubick's team is much improved this year and it looks like they are well on their way to topping those six wins and possibly heading to another Bowl game in the process. Their last game was one of their most impressive games I have seen in a long time as they managed to spank the Fresno State Bulldogs in their own home 35-23. Apart from their loss in Nevada, the Rams are off to a great start. My only concern for this game against UNLV is that the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the underdog generally plays a lot better in this series. However, this is a very different Colorado State team. This is a team led by several experienced players. They have players on both sides of the ball who were named to the pre-season ALL-Mountain West team and that says alot because most of the teams in this Conference don't have more than one players on that first team. Well the Rams had four players and they are going to be out to prove something ahead of their big game against Air Force next Thursday. The Rams are averaging a nice 19.7 points per game in their last three and they have done so on only 242.3 total yards of offense per game and only 4.2 yards per play. That's kinda weird seeing that they have played so well. UNLV's defense is atrocious however and they have allowed 29.7 points per game in their last three games and done so on allowing 411.3 total yards per game and 6.6 yards per play. On the ground, the Rams can pretty much forget around running the ball because they average less than 50 yards rushing per game in their last three. However, RB Gartrell Johnson III has not had any good games this season and has only 119 yards on 41 carries this season. Look for things to open up big time in this game as the Rebels defense allows 177.0 rushing yards per game on the ground in their last three on 5.1 yards per carry. In the air, QB Caleb Hanie has completed nearly 70% of his passes this year and is the kind of guy that can really keep the chains moving. He is averaging a whopping 8.3 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and he shoud have the best game of his career in this one against a UNLV defense that allows their last three opposing QB's to complete 69.1% of their passes for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. As long as the Rams offensive line can keep Hanie from getting sacked so much, the Rams should be able to connect on several deep ball plays with WR Johnny Walker and I think they can easily win by three touchdowns.
Trend of the Game: Colorado State is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six as a home favorite.
Colorado State 38, UNLV 17
System Play #8
South Carolina GameCocks -6.5 (3 Units)
The South Carolina Gamecocks have been money in the bank so far this season. They come into this game with a 3-1 ATS record having won 3 of their 5 games on the season. Steve Spurrier has talked several times about this type of game and how the Gamecocks have a lot to prove when it comes to winning games on the road. The Cocks are coming off a great game against Auburn last week and if they can keep the intensity from that game and possibly show the same grit as they did in their opener against Mississippis State on the road, I say they have a good chance of winning this game by two touchdowns. Steve Spurrier is 14-0 lifetime straight up in games versus Kentucky so for those of you who don't like the spread, feel free to drop some cash bombs on the ML because it almost sure to hit. South Carolina have won their last six games against Kentucky and are 4-2 ATS in those games. On more than one occasion this year I have been impressed by Spurrier's guys and now that QB Syvelle Newton is the main quarterback and there is no controversy, I think this team takes off and becomes a force to reckon with in the SEC East. The Gamecocks have the week off next week so this game is big. They are averaging 29.7 points per game in their last three games and have done so on a nice 400.7 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. Kentucky's defense is horrendous as they have allowed 25.3 points per game in their last three on an incredible 489.0 total yards per game and 6.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Mike Davis and company have rushed for 158.0 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry in their last three and should have no problems demolishing a Kentucky run defense that is allowing almost 200 yards rushing per game in their last three and allowing 5.3 yards per carry in the process. Davis should have a field day. In the air, QB Syvelle Newton is turning into a star at SC and although he is completing only 58.4% of his passes in his last three games, he is averaging a huge 8.2 yards per pass attempt. He is going up against a Kentucky defense full of holes that allows a whopping 8.7 yards per pass attempt in their last three and that are going to get burned by Sidney Rice for a possible five touchdowns. South Carolina has all the makings of a big blowout in this game as long as they stay away from penalties. Sc wins big this week.
The Kentucky Wildcats are definitely an improved team from the Wildcats team that won only three games in 2005 and that looked like a program in trouble. They have three wins on the season already and although I see them possibly getting to a Bowl Game when all the dust has settled, I just don't see how they can compete in this game against an up and rising South Carolina team. As I mentioned above, Steve Spurrier has owned the Wildcats in the past and in 14 career games coached against them, he has never lost. The home team is only 4-10 ATS in this series and it makes me wonder why the line on Kentucky is dropping big time and why South Carolina are only favored by four poitns at some books. Regardless, the Wildcats got away with one against Central Michigan last week and in their only two games with any significance, the Wildcats were blown out against Louisville and then against a gun-shy Florida team. Rich Brooks is in year #4 as head coach of this team and although his guys were 4-1 ATS as home dogs in 2005, they have shown no signs of defensive prowness that could possibly come into Saturday and stop this SC offense. The Wildcats are averaging a decent 27.7 points per game in their last three games and have done so on 334.0 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play. South Carolina's defense is allowing only 16.7 points per game in their last three and they have done so by allowing only 302.3 total yards of offense on 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Rafael Little has game breaking speed but the Wildcats don't have an effective system to use him and are rushing for only 77.7 yards per game in their last three. The only way to beat South Carolina is to run the ball effectively because the Cocks have allowed 185.0 rushing yards per game in their last three on a whopping 4.5 yards per carry. In the air, QB Andre Woodson has played very well for Kentucky and is completing 65.4% of his passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt in his last three games. However, the South Carolina defense is relentless and they have allowed their last three QB opponents to complete only 47.3% of their passes for only 6.4 yards per pass attempt and several players in the secondary are going to have to make big plays. This is going to be a test for both teams in this SEC clash but when all is said and done, the Gamecocks are the better team and they should have no problems winning this by a touchdown or more.
Trend of the Game: South Carolina is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight Conference games.
South Carolina 35, Kentucky 21
System Play #9
Wyoming Cowboys -1.5 (3 Units)
The Wyoming Cowboys are the real deal and although they are only 1-4 on the season, their losses have been brutal and they should have won two of the three games they lost. They won their opener against Utah State but they lost by one point in Virginia the following (got jobbed by the refs in that game), then lost by only a touchdown at home against Boise State and then lost by only a touchdown against a very good Air Force and then last week should have beat Syracuse in the Carrier Dome but blew the game late and then lost in overtime. What a disaster. This is a team that is returning 12 starters this season and that right now could possibly be a perfect 5-0 were it not for a lack of closing out games where they were ahead. Wyoming have never played well in Conference road games but with all that this team has been through, coach Joe Glenn has gone easy on the guys this week and wants to make sure that their next game is their best game and that they play an entire four quarters of football in what should be their second win of the year. This is only the second time this season that the Cowboys are going to be favored in a game and maybe that's a good things because the last time they were favored was in that game against Utah State where they won and covered in the opener. The Cowboys are averaging 22.7 points per game in their last three games and have done so with 336.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play. New Mexico's defense is very beatable and they have allowed 21.3 points per game in their last three games. They have also allowed only 306.0 total yards of offense per game on only 4.5 yards per play which is quite impressive. On the ground, the Cowboys don't have much going for them as they average only 112.0 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games but that's because they have played from behind and had to throw the ball. Regardless, New Mexico's defense has been good against the run allowing only 3.9 yards per carry. Not bad but there is room for Wyoming to be successful. In the air, QB Kasrten Sween will probably start this game and he has been great completing 71.4% of his passes this season for an average of 8.3 yards per pass attempt and two touchdowns. The Nex Mexico defense has allowed their last three QB opponents to complete a whopping 68.4% of their passes for 5.4 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line is going to have to do a good job blocking and protecting Sween because if his arm gets going early, he is going to torch the New Mexico secondary for some big time yardage in this game. Wyoming have been jobbed of 2-3 wins this season already and now it's time for them to have an offensive party and lead for the most part of this game.
The Nex Mexico Lobos are one of the only teams in the Country that have completely changed playing styles this season and gone with a passing offense when they have been a running offense for who knows how many years. The transition is never easy and the Lobos have pretty overachieved in many of their games this season. New Mexico is 2-3 on the season but please don't forget their loss against Portland State earlie in the year as well as their blowout loss against Air Force last week. New Mexico is returning only 10 starters this season which is going to be a big problem in games like this one where they have to face teams that are pissed off and ready to blow someone out. New Mexico have won the last six games against Wyoming but this is a fierce bunch from Wyoming coming in here to play and the way things are going for the Lobos, they are going to have a hard time this weekend. All odds are for the Lobos to have a big win here but I want to repeat one more time that this offense is currently underdoing a complete transition into a pass first offense and QB Kyle McKamey is out for the season with a knee injury. The Lobos have averaged only 16.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on a pathetic 254.3 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play in that same span of games. They are up against Wyoming defense that must be tired but that is allowing 29.3 points per game in their last three outings and doing so on only 296.0 total yards of offense and 4.5 yards per play which tells me that this defense is very well coached and should be ready for a big win in this game. On the ground, the Lobos used to run for hundreds of yards per game but are now rushing for only 89.0 yards per game in their last three and it will be hard for them to take advantage of a Wyoming defense that is allowing more than 200 yards rushing per game in their last three games. The idea of changing offensive strategies and sticking to the gameplan is going to prevent the Lobos from running as much as they should in this one. QB Chris Nelson has been a decent replacement and he has some big numbers but he has completed only 53.8% of his passes over the last three games for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Nelson is going to try and force things down the middle which is not a good idea against a Wyoming defense that is allowing only 5.2 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. Their last three opposing QB's have completed only 49.2% of their passes and the interceptions are bound to come for this very agressive Wyoming secondary. New Mexico have had a big fumbling problem this season and seeing that Wyoming have guys who love to strip the ball, the turnovers are definitely going to be the difference in this game and Wyoming should have no problems spanking New Mexico around.
Trend of the Game: The Road Team is 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.
Wyoming 31, New Mexico 24
Sunday, October 8
Miami Ohio Redhawks +11.5 (1 Unit)
The Northern Illinois Huskies are considered the best team in the MAC Conference but what I am intrigued to know is how they are going to perform in what looks to be a huge trap game on a Sunday Night. The MAC Conference has a weird tendency to produce some of the weirdest game outcomes and even if a MAC team starts the season at 0-4 or 1-3, they are probably still going to have a great chance of ending up in the MAC Title game at the end of the season. Northern Illinois have covered only 1 of their 4 lined games this season and are 3-2 straight up. They are coming off a 40-28 win at Ball State which was impressive but doesn't indicate to me that they are ready to go on the National Stage and come up with a huge win over a win hungry Miami Ohio team. The Huskies were 48-41 winners the last time they played here but that was in 2002 and things have changed big time. Coach Novak was a coach at Miami Ohio back in the day and this game means a lot to him but maybe not as much to his players. This is the same Northern Illinois team that played well against Ohio State, lost the next week to Ohio at home, had problems at times with Buffalo at home, that blew out Indiana State and that is now playing road game #2 in a row. The Huskies are averaging a huge 39.7 points per game in their last three games and have averaged 510.0 total yards of offense per game and 8.0 yards per play in that same span of games. On the flip side of things, Miami Ohio is allowing 24.7 points per game in their last three games and have done so by allowing 332.3 total yards of offense on 6.2 yards per play. Sure it has blowout written all over it but just hold on for a sec. On the ground, RB Garrett Wolfe is one of the best in the Country and the Huskies average 338.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games...what the fuck? That's 7.9 yards per carry and Wolfe is definitely going to run for 200+ yards in this game against a Miami Ohio team that is allowing 5.0 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air, QB has been lights out with his passes and is averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt in his last three games and completing 71.0% of his passes in those games. I don't know how this line is not about -20 but there is something fishy with this short line. I say that because Miami Ohio's defense is allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt and they have been torched in every which way possible this season. Northern Illinois are going to score a ton of points in this game but turnovers and lack of defensive prowness is going to cost them big.
The Miami Ohio Redhawks knew this was going to be a rebuilding year but little did they know that come HomeComing night on this Sunday, they would be a pathetic 0-5 on the season and looking like they are not going to win a game all season. I have to however commend Shane Montgomery and his young group of guys because although they have lost every game to this point in the season and although they have a 1-4 ATS record to begin the year, they have battled hard in some games and when you battle hard in the MAC Conference anything is possible and I wouldn't be surprised if the Redhawks found a way to win this game straight up. Miami Ohio is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Conference home games where they are the underdog so you can expect Yager Stadium to be loud and proud in this game. You guys all seem to be forgetting one more time that Miami Ohio almost beat Purdue back in Week 2, they came within two points of beating Kent State the following week and they did a great job last week against Cincinnati even though they lost by 14 points. Their time to shine is now and like I mentioned above, don't be shocked if the RedHawks find a way to pull off the upset and win this game. Again, it's the MAC Conference and crazy things always happen around here. The RedHawks are averaging only 12.7 points per game in their last three games and have done so on265.0 total yards of offense and 3.7 yards per play which is pretty pathetic. However, Northern Illinois have been known in the past for huge defensive breakdowns and although they allow only 18.3 points per game in their last three games, they still allow 332.7 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play in that same span of three games. The RedHawks have not had any success rushing the ball averaging only 65.7 rushing yards per game in their last three. Seeing that Northern Illinois allow less than 100 rushing yards per game in their last three and seeing that the Huskies should be winning for the most part of this game, I think it's safe to say that Miami Ohio won't be doing much running in the end. In the air, QB Mike Kokal (who is questionable for the game but will probably play) has actually done a good job and is completing 62.1% of his passes this season for five touchdowns. Miami Ohio needs him to play in this game if they want any chance of competing in the MAC Conference this season. The RedHawks are passing for only 4.9 yards per pass attempt in their last three games but Northern Illinois' secondary gives up a lot of yardage in the air and the Huskies last three opposing QB's have completed 63.6% of their passes. They have also allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt which means that whoever is playing QB for the RedHawks is going to have the opportunity to go deep several times with WR Ryne Robinson lurking in the deep field. This is going to be one hell of a game and this will definitely not be the blowout game everyone is talking about.
Trend of the Game: Miami Ohio are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs.
Miami Ohio 38, Northern Illinois 37
RECAP:
Marhsall -3 LOSS
NC State +10.5
Utah -2.5 ***POMW***
Middle Tennessee +31.5
Pittsburgh -7
Wisconsin -20 ***POW***
Illinois -7.5
Kent State -24
Michigan -15
Colorado State -15
South Carolina -6.5
Wyoming -1.5
Miami Ohio +11.5
Good Luck to all this week!
:cheers:
2006 CFB ATS Record: 19-20-2 ATS (-3.30)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-7 (+2.20 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 1-2 (-6.00 units)
SYSTEM PLAYS WILL BE INDICATED IN RED
Alright, well Marshall didn't work out on my formula plays but I am sticking to the system and adding some plays of my own for the hell of it. I am looking for that breakout week (coming out party) and I have a feeling I am very close to achieving that. Good Luck to all this week.
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Thursday, October 5
North Carolina State Wolfpack +10.5 (1 Unit)
It's Thursday Night, my deep gut says to go with what looks to be an easy 10.5 to cover for Florida State but after going over several variables and intangibles again, I am done joining the public on most of their plays for weekday games. We have been getting burned the last 2-3 weeks and people have yet to learn and are still betting all in one bunch. Tonight on ESPN we get to see the Florida State Seminoles who are coming off a BYE week but who most recently spanked around Rice 55-7 but lost to Clemson the game before that. I know what you're saying, FSU is 4-1 SU and ATS on Thursday Night games but then again, Marshall were something like 7-1 on Wednesday nights and that all came crashing down last night. You see, Florida State must not have much to get up for in the morning because they have NC State this wee and Duke the next which pretty much means we might see a few lax efforts by these guys before these two games are all said and done. Bobby Bowden wishes they were playing a much stronger opponent this week because he wants his guys to come out with full intensity. The Seminoles are averaging a decent 33.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on 361.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play. NC State's defense is pretty damn young and they do have some holes but they are an inpired bunch who are allowing 24.0 points per game in their last three games on 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, RB Lorenzo Booker and company have rushed for 144.7 yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry in their last three and should have a good day on the ground against NC State who allow 182.3 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry over their last three. QB Drew Weatherford has played well enough lately to be winning big games but he has still thrown only three touchdown passes with two interceptions which just doesn't cut it at this level. He is completing 62.8% of his passes over the last three games for 7.6 yards per pass attempt and although NC State have been getting torched on the deep ball for 7.9 yards per pass attempt over their last three games, opposing QB's are completing only 51.3% of their passes over that same span of games. Here is the x-factor in this game. FSU have fumbled 4.0 times per game over their last three games which means a total of 12 fumbles with six lost. The NC State defense is going to have to play for strips tonight and they are going to have to play steady defense. As good as their secondary is, and they are damn good, the LB's crew has to do a better job in coverage and they have to make sure Lorenzo Booker doesn't run for 200+ yards in this game. As long as they can pressure Weatherford, they should keep this close.
The NC State Wolfpack are not a team I would be betting on regularly but this is Thursday Night, my Toronto Maple Leafs are not worth watching tonight so I am going to be a unit on Chuck Amato's boys coming off a BYE Week. I remember hearing a few years back that Amato always has his guys ready to play against FSU because he used to be an assistant coach there for 13 years and these games mean a lot more to him than some of the other games. In other words, this is the big game on NC State's schedule and this is their biggest game of the season. Amato is also one of the best coaches when it comes to using a BYE Week to work on fundamentals and what not (yeah Lou Holtz loves fundamentals) and in fact, Amato and the Wolfpack are 9-2 ATS the last 11 seasons the week following the BYE Week. The last time Florida State were here, the Wolfpack returned the same amount of starters (10 starters) as they do this year and they lost a close 17-10 to the #11 ranked Seminoles. In 2002, Florida State came in here and left with a disappointing 10 point win as they were ranked #14 in the Country at the time. Well Amato has won games in Tallahasee but now it's time to try and win one in Raleigh for the home fans. The Wolfpack average 17.0 points per game over their last three and are coming off a huge win over BC on a last minute hail mary type pass. They are going to have to work hard tonight because they don't average more than 300 yards of offense per game over their last three and FSU's strength is their defense as they allow 293.7 total yards of offense per game on only 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB's Andre Brown (6.4 yards per carry but only 44 touches???) and Toney Baker (4.3 yards per carry) are going to have to be used a lot more in this game seeing that NC State average only 99.7 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry over their last three games. No more of this conservative stuff Amato, it's time to unleash this vanilla offense you have run all season. The Noles don't give up much on the ground and they have the best D-Line in the ACC. However, FSU are allowing 24.0 points per game over their last three games and they are beatable with the right coaching strategy. In the air, I hate to say but QB Marcus Stone is horrendous, however, you can expect Stone to have less than 20 pass attempts in this game because when the Wolfpack beat FSU last year, they beat them by running the ball down their throats and had Stone just stick to the basics. I wouldn't let Stone throw anything into coverage. Even though FSU's secondary is beatable, small dump passes are all I would allow because Stone is mistake prone and every mistake counts in this game. So basically you can expect to see tons of Andre Brown tonight as the Wolfpack try to slow this game down to a snails pace, controlling the time of possession and getting Bobby Bowden all frustrated. The dreams of National Title are pretty much gone for the Seminoles so don't be surprised to see another loss in the books...a shocking loss.
Trend of the Game: The UNDERDOG is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
NC State 13, Florida State 10
Utah Utes -2.5 (5 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MIDWEEK***
There is no doubt about it in my mind that TCU are going to come out in this game and probably have one of their best showings all season after the loss to BYU at home last week that knocked them right out of the TOP 25 standings in the Country. Gary Patterson is going to have his guys fired up for this game but my question to all of you guys who are on TCU for this game is how fired up can you be and how good can you be on a Thursday Night road game this week, when you couldn't even win on a Thursday Night at home last week? Let's be real here for a few minutes, TCU is crushed after the loss and recovering might be quite difficult. Since Patterson has been here, the Horned Frogs are only 7-7 after straight up losses and that tells me that he's not the type of coach to have his guys fully motivated after big losses. I mean TCU is still a very respectable 3-1 on the season and things could still go their way but they got very lucky in some of the earlier games and their luck is about to run out. A lot of people also like the OVER in this game but if Patterson learned anything after the loss to BYU is that playing defense is going to determined what TCU does with their season and allowing 31 points like that again is not acceptable. In their last three games, TCU have averaged 25.0 points per on 393. total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play. That's good but can they hold Utah to less? Utah's defense is still stellar, allowing only 14.3 points per game over the last three games and they allow an impressive 261.0 total yards of offense on 4.4 yards per play over that same span of three games. Utah defense? at home? on a Thursday? Yup. On the ground, TCU is averaging a whopping 197.3 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry over the last three games but have a problem in this one because Utah allow only 3.7 yards per carry over their last three games. In the air, QB Jeff Ballard is going to have to have the game of his life if he wants a shot at winning this. Over the last three games, he is completing 59.4% of his passes but for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Ballard is going to be under constant pressure from the Utah defense and seeing that he has not thrown many interceptions this season, this Utah defens who have 9 interceptions over their last three games, are bound to make Ballard pay for lazy throws. The last three QB's to face this defense have completed only 48.4% of their passes for only 5.8 yards per pass attempt and apart from the Boise State and UCLA games, the Utes have not allowed more than 10 points in their other three games. Incredible. TCU is one of the most penalized teams I have seen in a long time and it's going to cost them tonight against a very disciplined Utah defense that can frustrate most of their opponents.
The Utah Utes are coming off one of their most disappointing and crushing losses in years. Boise State walked in this place last week on HomeComing and handed the Utes a 36-6 loss. However, that loss could be the best thing to happen to this team since their 11-0 season and I say that because it's gut check time for the Utes and another pathetic peformance tonight would seriously stirr things up in Salt Lake City. Utah is 3-1 on the season (2-2 ATS) but have not beat any teams of significance and have not shown that they can easily make it back to a Bowl Game. This was supposed to be a season where Utah goes unbeaten again as many experts had predicted but the opener was a disaster against UCLA and the game last week against Boise State was an even bigger disaster. Regardless, Utah quite clearly remembers their double OT loss to TCU in Fort Worth last year, a game that snapped their 18 game winning streak and that sent this team into a bit of dissaray. A lot of people thought Utah should be underdogs in this game which is the most probable reason for the public being on TCU for this game. Well Utah was 9-2 ATS as a home favorite the two season prior to their 2005 campaign and I expect this to be a statement game for Kyle Whittingham because his boys have not done enough for him to be considered worthy of his position as head coach of this football team. The Utes average 29.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on 312.7 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play. Not impressive and nothing to go nuts about but there is room for improvement. On the ground, Utah has had success running the ball as they have 160.0 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry over their last three games. However, TCU's defensive line is one of the best in the Country and Utah would be making a mistake if they run the ball more than 30 times in this game. In the air, QB Brett Ratliff has to show us the Brett Ratliff that won us so much cash in the past. Ratliff is completing only 48.2% of his passes the last three games for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt but this is the time to turn him loose and see what he can do working behind the best Offensive Line in the Conference. TCU's secondary is not that great and they don't pickoff many passes which means there are no excuses for Ratliff in this game and he has to be ready to lead the team. TCU don't allow a high completion rate for opposing QB's but they do allow a rather high 6.7 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and there isn't a single defensive player on TCU that can keep up with WR Derrek Richards if he is on his game. The key in this game will be to air the ball out, forget about running so much and make sure you don't let Ratliff get too excited because he makes too many mistakes like that. I see Ratliff having one of his best game as a Ute in this one and his 8 touchdown passes this season have to be considered when it comes to the play calling by the offensive coaches. Ratliff has star power but he has yet to show it. Well now is the time to unleash the beast and show us what he is all about.
Trend of the Game: Utah are 3-0 ATS in their last three games that follow a loss of 20+ points.
Utah 24, TCU 17
Friday, October 6
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +31.5 (1 Unit)
Do you public team players have any clue as to what you are doing joining everyone else on Louisville for this game? I mean how can you trust the public plays like this one after watching the last 6-7 ESPN Nationally Televised games go to the underdog? Okay well almost 80% of the public are already on Louisville for this game and Pinnacle is not giving me anything better than 31.5. What I find strange is that every other books has gone up to 33 or 34 but there is some action at Pinnacle that is keeping the line where it is and I figure that if Louisville is going to cover the spread, they are going to cover it by 40+ points and the small difference in points won't screw me. Betting against the Cardinals has been gambling suicide this year as they are 4-0 ATS and are looking more and more like the 2004 team that was 10-1 ATS on the season. They are 3-0 ATS against current Sun Belt Conference teams and have outscored them 157-24. Sports Gambling suicide it might be but I am willing to take a few Terrell Owens pills for this game and hope for the best possible outcome which would be some sort of late touchdown to moose Louisville backers. The Cardinals are coming off a BYE week and although this team doesn't have much to work on when it comes to fundamentals of football, I don't see how they could be motivated to play against this Middle Tennesee team with their conference opener on deck next week. The Cardinals average a ridiculous 44.0 points per game in their last three games on 523.0 total yards of offense and 7.4 yards per play. That's just insane. However, Middle Tennessee defense (and I know it's just the Sun Belt Conference) are ranked in the TOP 50 of all four major defensive categories in College Football which means they have a good shot at covering. They allow only 17.8 points per game in their last three games and they have allowed only 244.2 total yards of offense on 4.4 yards per play in those same games. Don't forget, they did play Oklahoma during that span. Louisville loves running the ball and why not when you have guys who can lead to rushing for 249.5 rushing yards per game in your last three games on 5.8 yards per carry. However, Middle Tennessee have some big players in the middle and although they are going to be outsized and overpowered all night long, they are allowing only 94.4 rushing yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry over their last three games and slowing down the Cardinals ground attack is going to probably work better for Middle Tennessee than it did for other teams. In the air, QB Hunter Cantwell is one of the best backups in the Nation, if the not the best, and he is completing 64.9% of his passes over the last three weeks for 9.7 yards per pass attempt. However, the Middle Tennessee defense is young and inexperienced but have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete only 56.3% of their passes for only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. There is no doubt in my mind that Louisville can score at will in this game but how much do they really want to show from their playbook and how badly do they want to burry the Blue Raiders? What I find ironic is that the last time Louisville played in the state of Tennessee was back in that 2004 season when they went to Memphis and won the game but lost their only ATS of the season. I hope the Tennessee curse lives on.
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders definitely know they can't win this game but can they put up enough of a fight to keep it closer than the experts and the public think? I don't see why not. This game is being played in Nashville, Tennessee on the home stadium of the Tennessee Titans and the stadium is close enough for both schools to send a huge amount of fans for what should be a blowout game but also a fun game for both school to participate in. Let me tell you how this Middle Tennessee team has impressed me this season. They opened with a nice home win against Florida International (the first CFB game of the season for everyone) and then followed that up with a decent 24-10 loss and showing at Maryland. Then there was the game against Oklahoma in Norman where the Blue Raiders got blown to pieces and lost 59-0. Don't expect the same kind of blowout this week because the Blue Raiders responded to the Oklahoma loss by blowing away North Texas 35-0 last week and if that wasn't a statement game, I don't know what was. The key in this game is going to be composure. We all know their defense is going to allow a ton of points but the offense is going to have to contribute if they are goin to cover. Well with 9 returning starters on offense, I trust that they can score those 1-2 touchdowns needed to cover. They average 19.2 points per game in their last three games and have done so on 251.6 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play. Nothing impressive and nothing special but I do see them playing well against a Louisville defense allowing 4.7 yards per play in their last three games which is quite high for Louisville standards. One thing I do know is that the Cardinals want to avoid more injuries at all costs. There is going to be no room to run for Middle Tennessee in this game and as much as they try and establish some running room, it's just not going to be there against a defense allowing 2.2 yards per carry in their last three games. However, QB Clint Marks is a Senior and learning this new offense has not been easy but he is slowly but surely coming around to Stockstill's new ways and I see him having success in this game. Marks is completing just over 50% of his passes the last three games for 5.4 yards per pass attempt but I have a feeling this is the one game where Middle Tennessee are going to try new things and pull them off. Louisville's defense is stout and they allow opposing QB's to complete only 45.5% of their passes over the last three games but are allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt in those games which tells me that the gun slinging Marks is capable of a huge game here. The Blue Raiders have run the ball a lot more than they have thrown this season but it's time to let Marks show what he can do as he is close to becoming one of Middle Tennessee's leading all time passers. I know it doesn't matter much but Middle Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games before a BYE Week and we are going to see them give it their all in this game tonight.
Trend of the Game: Middle Tennessee are 4-0 ATS in their last four that follow a game where they rushed for 200+ yards.
Louisville 48, Middle Tennessee 22
Saturday, October 7
System Play #2
Pittsburgh Panthers -7 (4 Units)
The Pittsburgh Panthers are a red hot commodity right now and this is their week of gut check time. Alright, I know what most of you are going to argue. You're going to tell me that Pittsburgh have a horrendous record in the Carrier Dome over the years and that this is the one place where they struggle to win everytime they play here. Well yeah that's partially true but how quickly everyone forgets that Pitt came into the Carrier Dome in 2002 and won by 24 points. Also, everyone keeps talking about Syracuse and how good they are this year and how they always cover against Pitt but once again, did you all know that Pittsburgh are 3-1 ATS versus the Orange in their last four meetings and 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings (2-3 ATS in the Carrier Dome). So why would covering a touchdown spread be so hard for the Panthers who are playing against an overachieving Syracuse team? Who knows. The Panthers are coming off a 45-3 home win over Toledo last week and it seems like they are still bitter from their 15 point home loss to Michigan State a few weeks back. That was Pitt's only loss this season and Dave Wanndtedt still has dreams of winning the Big East which he could quite possibly still do if Pitt can win out on the season (unlikely). The Panthers average 39.7 points per game in their last three games this season on 412.7 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 6.7 yards per play. They are going up against a Syracuse defense that has allowed 23.0 points per game in their last three on 394.0 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, the Panthers have not had to do much to win but still average 137.0 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry over their last three games. However, don't expect much to be working on the ground against a solid Syracuse D-Line that allow only 3.3 yards per carry over their last three games. QB Tyler Palko is a darkhorse candidate for the Heisman Trophy if you ask me. He has completed 69.8% of his passes over the last three games for 9.6 yards per pass attempt. He has almost 1400 passing yards on the season, has thrown 14 TD passes and has connected with superstar WR Derek Kinder six times. Syracuse is going to get torched in the air as they allow their last three opposing QB's to complete more than 60% of their passes for a whopping 7.0 yards per pass attempt. Sure they have a great pass rush but Pittsburgh O-Line is solid and allow less than 2.0 sacks per game in their last three. Palko is going to have another big game in this one against a very young and inexperienced Syracuse secondary. I will be shocked if Pittsburgh don't score at least 30 points in this game.
The Syracuse Orangemen are on fuckin fire. They are 3-2 on the year but are leading the Nation with their 5-0 ATS record and does anyone really dare bet against these guys? Yeah...I do. I say that because they got lucky in their last game winning and covering in overtime against a very good Wyoming team and those overtime games usually result in an ATS loss the next week. The favorite has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams and I don't see why things would change. You have to admit that Syracuse is seriously overachieving this season and the bad luck is bound to strike them sooner or later. The Orangemen have three wins and those wins were against Wyoming, Miami Ohio and Illinois. Their losses came against Wake Forest and Iowa and if you didn't know by now, Pittsburgh is possibly the best team Syracuse is going to have seen all season. Greg Robinson has a very young team in front of him and although it has not cost him any games yet this season, he is in for a big surprise in this game. I don't see how Syracuse is going to keep up with the intensity of the Panthers. Syracuse is averaging a whopping 35.0 points per game in their last three games on 319.7 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play. However, Pitt as they like to be called this season, are allowing only 15.7 points per game in their last three and opponents average only 305.0 total yards of offense on 4.5 yards per play over that same span of games. The Orangemen have been stout running the ball this season and average an impressive 169.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games. However, those games were being played while ahead and I don't see them being ahead at any point in this game. Pittsburgh has allowed 170.7 rushing yards per game in their last three (which is surprising) but look for them to do much better in this one. Syracuse QB Perry Patterson is completing only 54.0% of his passes in their three wins for 7.2 yards per pass attempt and he has had success throwing the deep ball. However, Pittsburgh secondary is tough to beat and they have allowed only 4.6 yards per pass attempt over their last three games which means Patterson is going to struggle. They are also intercepting 1.3 passes per game over their last three and with the pressure they are going to send in this one, expect Patterson to make some game changing mistakes.
Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.
Pittsburgh 31, Syracuse 13
System Play #3
Wisconsin Badgers -20 (5 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
This is going to be fun. Northwestern are by far the worst team in the Big 10 this season and although you can't blame them, you really can't be bothered by this because they are going to be fun to bet against all season long. This is Northwestern's third straight road game and seeing that they are 0-2 on their current road trip, team morale is definitely at an all-time low and the Wildcats will be happy to come out of this game with both their legs and arms still in place. In their first game of the tripe, the Wildcats lost to Nevada on National TV and they then followed that game with a loss at Penn State. They are 1-3 ATS on the season right now, they are 1-4 straight up and since this is still a season of tragedy for the Wildcats (having lost coach Walker and all), I can almost guarantee you 100% that the only thing on every player's mind on that Northwestern sideline is to make it out of this game and head home right after for a home game against Purdue. These guys have been on the road for too long and have not had to play three straight road games in almost 10 years. The Wildcats are averaging only 14.0 points per game in their last three games and they have struggled badly on offense averaging only 290.7 total yards per game on 4.7 yards per play. Wisconsin's defense has shown to be one of the best in the Big 10 this season and they allow only 14.7 points per game in their last three and that was done on 239.0 total yards per game and only 4.0 yards per play. Wow...impressive. On the ground, RB Tyrell Sutton is still one of the best backs in the Nation but the rest of his team sucks. The Cats average 161.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry in their last three games but Wisconsin's D-Line is going to manhandle the Northwestern line in this one as they allow only 97.0 rushing yards per game in their last three. In the air, QB Mike Kafka is a go for this game and is completing only 50.6% of his passes the last three games for 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Well Wisconsin have a steady pass rush and they are allowing only 5.2 yards per pass attempt in their last three games as well as intercepting at least one pass per game in each of their last three. They had a small letdown against Indiana late in the game last week but this defense is stout and I see them shutting Northwestern out completely in this this game.
The Wisconsin Badgers are my favorite team to bet on this season and I am now 3-0-1 ATS when betting on them. Did you know that I have bet on every single one of their bettable games this season and won or pushed? The Badgers return home after two big games on the Big 10 road and although they would have liked to beat Michigan in Ann Arbour, they are happy with their two game performance and happy to still have a longshot at winning the Big 10 if some of the other teams falter down the stretch. The big game for Wisky is next week against Minnesota but for now Northwestern is going to be another fun scrimmage outing like last week. Did you know that the home team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these two teams? Camp Randall is going to be loud and proud as usual and that means that Wisconsin should be able to escape with another big win. In their two home games this season they have allowed only 10 points and since San Diego State's offense is probably a small notch better than Northwestern's, I don't know how Wisconsin doesn't pitch a shutout in this one. The coaching staff was pissed off after last week's win because the Badgers allowed an unecessary 17 garbage time points to the Hoosiers. In their last three games Wisconsin is averaging 26.3 points per game on 386.3 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. Northwestern have not played some big time offensive teams but they have still allowed 23.3 points per game in their last three on 338.3 yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. However, this is their third straight road game and this is when the defense really starts to fade. On the ground, RB PJ Hill has been the surprise player of the year in the Big 10. He is now at 598 rushing yards on the season with 8 touchdowns and is one of the best backs Wisconsin has seen in recent years (which is saying a lot). The Badgers average 169.3 rushing yards per game in thier last three on 4.3 yards per carry. PJ Hill should have another huge game against an NW defense that allow 158.7 rushing yards per game in their last three for 3.9 yards per carry. The running game should setup QB John Stocco in the air attack. Stocco is completing 58.4% of his passes over the last three games for 7.3 yards per pass attempt and he has not thrown many interceptions. Northwestern's secondary is allowing a decent 6.3 yards per pass attempt but it's the small things that Wisconsin does that move the chains and that will be the difference in this game.
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Wisconsin 30, Northwestern 3
System Play #4
Illinois Fighting Illini -7.5 (1 Unit)
The Indiana Hoosiers are shell shocked, they don't know where to go, what to do or even how to play football anymore. I mean the crazy story season continues for these guys. It all started with a huge win at Western Michigan, was followed by their head coach Terry Hoeppner needing open brain surgery, then came to loss to Division 1-AA Southern Illinois at home, followed by a loss to a shitty UConn team and now the latest saga a blowout loss to Wisconsin at home last week. Now the Hoosiers head on the road where on paper they should have a big time chance of winning this game. However, having a shot on paper means one thing and having to go Champaign against a team picking up serious steam is another. The Hoosiers are now 2-3 on the season which is not too bad. This is one of the games they had circled on their calendars as winnable and I don't doubt that they are going to try very hard to win this game. Easier said than done against a Ron Zook team that is playing some damn good football. Indiana also have history against them this week because the home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two teams. Indiana is averaging 17.3 points per game in thier last three games but they have done it on a pathetic 262.0 total yards per game and only 3.8 yards per play. Well Illinois' defense is finally starting to play well even though they have allowed 25.0 points per game in their last three, they have also allowed only 324.0 total yards per game on 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, Indiana is averaging only 81.0 rushing yards per game 2.6 yards per carry in their last three games while Illinois allow only 3.7 yards per carry over their last three games. In the air, QB Kellen Lewis has shown signs of brilliance but has also made some big mistakes. I don't know who is starting this game for Indiana but regardless, the Hoosiers are completing only 46.9% of their passes over the last three games for only 4.8 yards per pass attempt. They have thrown 1.3 interceptions per game and the line is allowing almost three sacks per game. Illinois' defense is going to have to pressure Indiana's QB in this game because their secondary allow big plays and cutting down on the big plays includes pressuring the QB. I don't know how this Illinois defense is going to play because they are young and lack experience. Should be interesting.
The Illinois Fighting Illini are coming off their second win of the season...hold on here...did I just say they already have two wins on the season? Whoa...they had two wins all of last season and are already one win away from topping that total under Ron Zook. My guess is that Zook is starting to party with students like he did at Florida because it seems like his young team is really starting to rally around him and parties with students would defintiely get a team a lot closer. What people fail to understand about Illinois is that even though they have matched their two wins from last season, they are seriously underachieving at this point in the season and this is a talented bunch of guys who could make some noise come next season in the Big 10. I mean they return 19 starters on the team. They three losses came against Rutgers (who are red hot this year and one of the top teams in the Nation), against Syracuse (they actually almost beat Cuse but a few turnovers gave the game to the Orangemen) and Iowa (losing by only 17 points to Iowa is not that bad at all for a basement Big 10 team). The win last week against Michigan State was huge and was very indicative of what these guys are capable of. The Fighting Illini average 17.0 points per game in their last three and average 367.7 total yards of offens eon 5.5 yards per play over that same span of games. However, the best part is that they get to play against an Indiana defense that is allowing 33.7 points per game in their last three and that is allowing 403.0 total yards per game on 5.9 yards per play over that same span of games. On the ground, RB Pierre Thomas is the MVP of this team and he has led the Illini to 161.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry in their last three games. I think Pierre might rush for 200 yards in this game because Indiana allow 236.7 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry in their last three and this one could ugly. What peopel don't know about Illinois is that they are using a new QB in Isiah Williams. This kid was highly recruited out of high school and he rushed for 103 yards against Michigan State. Whoa. The combination of Williams and Pierre should result in another huge rushing day for Illinois. The Illini average 7.0 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and if Williams wants to throw the ball, he should have a huge game against an Indiana defense that is allowing a whopping 9.1 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. Ouch. Illinois can blow Indiana right out of this stadium if they play a mistake free game. However, they do make mistakes and for that simple reason I am not betting huge on them. However, Ron Zook guys are going to win by at least 10 points in this game and this is going to be a big statement game for these guys...they deserve it anyways.
Trend of the Game: Illinois is 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games that follow a game where they allowed less than 100 rushing yards.
Illinois 38, Indiana 23
System Play #5
Kent State Golden Flashes -24 (4 Units)
Oh boy...what the hell am I doing dropping cash on Kent State as 24 point favorites in a non-Conference game? I don't think Kent State have been favored by this many points in their entire history but like many of you have been talking about since the season started, Temple is going to be a weekly fade in College Football and now that Temple covered their first game of the season, the public will be off the Temple fade and the lines will be lowered like they have been for this game. Kent State is the real deal and people fail to realize this. The Golden Flashes are 3-2 on the season and are well on their way to being in the MAC Conference Title game come the end of November. The Golden Flashes have been money in the bank since their first game loss to Minnesota and are 4-0 ATS since. Why should we fade these guys when they are one of the hottest teams in the Country? They are coming off a huge home win against Akron and this is the week where they can really flex some mucles and show that they are not just another team acting like posers. This is a great chance for Kent State to make a statement against a team that is joining the MAC Conference next season. The Golden Flashes are averaging 30.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on 401.3 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. I want to laugh when I read that Temple have allowed 48.7 points per game in their last three games and that they have been allowing 6.8 yards per play to opposing teams over that same span of games. On the ground, RB Eugene Jarvis and the running attack average 171.3 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry in their last three and they are up against a Temple defense that has allowed 237.3 rushing yards per game on 6.5 yards per carry in their last three. Wow...that's some fade material...big time. In the air, QB Julien Edelman has been great, completing 69.2% of his passes for a whopping 10.6 yards per pass attempt over the last three games. He is up against a Temple defense that allows just about any play and that allows 7.2 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. I don't know what else to say about this game but I do know that Kent State won't have a letdown offensively because they were offensively challenged in 2005 and now want to show that they too can score 40 points against this pathetic Temple team that doesn't belong in I-A football.
The Temple Owls are a sad ass team with sad ass players and a sad ass excuse for not having a good team. I don't even know what their excuse is for fielding this kind of team but I do know that will probably not cover more than 2 games this season. Seeing that their last game they covered the big spread againstVanderbilt, it's now time to fade them again because I have no doubt in my mind that they cannot score any kind of points against this Kent State defense. Temple have scored more than 10 points only once this season and it last week in Vanderbilt and now that they return home, I think they go right back to the type of performance we saw them put up versus Louisville earlier this season. I remember quite well last season when both teams were just as pathetic as the other and I would have never thought that Kent State would ever be favored on the road against this Temple team but they are. The Owls have been underdogs of less than 30 points only once this season and they actually managed to almost win that game against another MAC opponent in Buffalo. Well that was then and this is now and this is going to be another blowout loss. Temple are averaging only 7.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on only 192.0 total yards of offense and 3.2 yards per play. Wow...that sucks big time. Kent State have a very tough defense to beat as they allow only 10.7 points per game in their last three and have done so by allowing only 304.3 total yards of offense on 4.3 yards per play per game. I don't see how Temple is going to run the ball because their offensive line is outsized by all teams and they rush for only 64.0 yards per game in their last three on 2.0 yards per carry....that's not a joke. Also, Kent State's defense allows 120.0 rushing yards per game but they should hold Temple to a reasonable number in this one. In the air, QB's Adam DiMichele and Vaughn Charlton have thrown one touchdown pass and 9 interceptions combined. Enough said. I don't even have to tell you anything else other than they average 5.3 yards per pass attempt and get sacked left and right. Kent State's defense is allowing only 5.3 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and they average 5.0 sacks per game. With the kind of pressure they are going to bring in this game, they should be able to force a plethora of turnovers and turn this into their biggest blowout in almost 40 years. Now that would be something else for this Kent State program.
Trend of the Game: Golden State is 7-1 ATS in their last eight wins following a straight up ML win.
Kent State 48, Temple 7
System Play #6
Michigan Wolverines -15 (2 Units)
As much as I would like to tell you guys that we are in for a thrilling game between two huge rivals, I unfortunately have to announce that the Michigan State Spartans are done for the year, they have packed up their stuff and folded like a cheap tent. All this comes after blowing a huge lead against Notre Dam two weeks ago. Can you believe they actually lost to Illinois last week? I can't. Usually when a team loses a game the way they lost to Notre Dame at home, that team goes into a downspiral for about 2-3 weeks and this is week #2 of that downspiral. With Ohio State on deck at home next week, I think the Spartans are going to go AWOL for another game and concentrate more on pulling off the big upset at home against the #1 team in the Country next week. Michigan State looked like they had it all against Notre Dame until things blew up in their faces and they went on to lose the game in unbelievable fashion. Now they have to face a Michigan team is on a mission like we have not seen for years. Did you know that Michigan State is only 13-21-1 ATS in their last 35 Big 10 road games and that doesn't encourge many people to be ton the reeling Spartans. Michigan State are going to be without RB Javon Ringer (biggest loss) and QB Drew Stanton has some badly bruised ribs. The Spartans average 31.7 points per game in their last three outings and have done so on 393.3 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play. That's impressive. However, Michigan's defense is even more impressive, allowing 16.0 points per game in their last three on only 272.0 total yards per game 4.2 yards per play. Wow...now that's defense. Michigan State average 221.7 rushing yards per game in their last three but now that Ringer is out and Stanton is hurt, the Spartans are going to struggle badly against a Michigan defense that is allowing only 41.3 rushing yards per game on 1.8 yards per carry over their last three games. In the air, Stanton is completing 58.7% of his passes over the last three games for 6.9 yards per pass attempt but the offensive line is allowing a lot of sacks and the pressure has resulted in three interceptions for Stanton (the last three games). Michigan's defense allow only 50.8% of passes to be completed against them in their last three and they allow only 5.5 yards per pass attempt in those games. As long as the Wolverines defense is playing well, Michigan State are going to struggle with injuries in this game and scoring points in Ann Arbour is going to be more difficult than it has even been in the John L. Smith days. Spartans should struggle this week.
Michigan is on top of the world right now and I don't blame them for talking about winning the Big 10 this season. I have no doubt in my mind that their November 18 game against Ohio State is going to be for the Big 10 Title as well as a chance to possibly play in the BCS Championship game. The Wolverines are a perfect 5-0 on the season, they have looked like a Championship team, played like a Championship team and made all their haters look a little bit stupid. This is some impressive stuff they are doing. Their three home games have been blowout wins, they have gone on the road and taken care of Notre Dame as well as Minnesota and now they have another Big 10 game at home in front of their rejuvenated fans. I know the home team has not covered a game in three years when it comes to this series but prior to those three years the home team was dominant and look for Michigan to revive that trend in this game. Lloyd Carr is proving all his naysayers wrong and is putting together one of his best Michigan seasons ever. This game is just another game that Michigan has to play until November 18 rolls around and once it does roll around, the Wolverines are going to be ready. Michigan is averaging 34.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done it on 393.3 total yards of offense and an impressive 6.0 yards per play. Michigan State's defense has been weak and they have allowed 28.7 points per game in their last three games. Not only that, the Spartans are allowing 371.3 total yards per game on a whopping 6.2 yards per play in their last three which should open to Michigan door for a blowout win like the 49-3 win in 2002. On the ground, RB Mike Hart has led this team to 155.0 rushing yards per game in their last three on 3.7 yards per carry but Hart should have a lot of success against a Spartans defense that allows a whopping 4.7 yards per carry in their last three games. When things go to the air, QB Chad Henne has been excellent the last three games, completing 67.6% of his passes for an impressive 10.1 yards per pass attempt. The Michigan State defense is very vulnerable to big passing plays as they are allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and have been torched by some of the best QB's. Well not it's Michigan turn to have fun at the expense of the fading Spartans and seeing that Michigan State have so many key injuries, I would like to think that is going to turn into a big blowout or something close to it. Anyways, the number is too low and I am taking advantage of a bad line that is doing nothing but respecting a rivalry of the past.
Trend of the Game: Michigan is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Big 10 games.
Michigan 34, Michigan State 13
System Play #7
Colorado State Rams -15 (2 Units)
The UNLV Rebels were a 15 point underdog last year against Colorado State but that game was at home. Although they did cover the 15 points in that game, they still lost the game by four and Colorado State did not look impressive at all. The Rebels are slightly improved this season and are playing in a system that takes time to develop. Since winning their season opener against Idaho State at home 54-10, they have lost their last three games, two on the road and one at home, and have shown no signs of improvement from last season. UNLV is something like 9-1 ATS the last 10 seasons when it comes to playing their first road conference game of the season but I won't let that stat faze and me and I would rather go against it and see myself win some nice cash. What that stat fails to indicate is that although they have played well in their first road games of the season, they are only 10-19 ATS the last four years against the Mountain West Conference and I don't see any of that changing today. In their last game, UNLV looked lost against a good Nevada offense and they got blown out 31-3 in front of the hometown fans. Now they hit the road and it's time to get killed again. The Rebels are averaging only 8.7 points per game in their last three games and are averaging only 263.3 total yards of offense on 3.9 yards per play. Colorado State have one of their strongest defenses in years and they are allowing only 20.3 points per game in their last three on a very respectable 282.3 total yards per game and 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, UNLV are averaging only 62.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and that comes on 2.1 yards per carry. The Colorado State defense is allowing only 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games and should have no problems forcing the Rams to throw the ball. In the air, QB Rocky Hinds has not played well completing only 50.4% of his passes and throwing one touchdown and three interceptions. He is passing for only 5.3 yards per pass attempt in his last three games, getting sacked 3.7 times per game in those games and is having trouble getting this offense going. Well Colorado State allow 6.2 yards per pass attempt in their last three and like I said, they are going to force Hinds and the Rebels to throw the ball which should resutl in turnovers that turn into nice points for the Rams. I just don't see this UNLV offense improving enough this week on the road to lose by less than 20 points.
The Colorado State Rams only won six games last year but it looks like Sunny Lubick's team is much improved this year and it looks like they are well on their way to topping those six wins and possibly heading to another Bowl game in the process. Their last game was one of their most impressive games I have seen in a long time as they managed to spank the Fresno State Bulldogs in their own home 35-23. Apart from their loss in Nevada, the Rams are off to a great start. My only concern for this game against UNLV is that the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the underdog generally plays a lot better in this series. However, this is a very different Colorado State team. This is a team led by several experienced players. They have players on both sides of the ball who were named to the pre-season ALL-Mountain West team and that says alot because most of the teams in this Conference don't have more than one players on that first team. Well the Rams had four players and they are going to be out to prove something ahead of their big game against Air Force next Thursday. The Rams are averaging a nice 19.7 points per game in their last three and they have done so on only 242.3 total yards of offense per game and only 4.2 yards per play. That's kinda weird seeing that they have played so well. UNLV's defense is atrocious however and they have allowed 29.7 points per game in their last three games and done so on allowing 411.3 total yards per game and 6.6 yards per play. On the ground, the Rams can pretty much forget around running the ball because they average less than 50 yards rushing per game in their last three. However, RB Gartrell Johnson III has not had any good games this season and has only 119 yards on 41 carries this season. Look for things to open up big time in this game as the Rebels defense allows 177.0 rushing yards per game on the ground in their last three on 5.1 yards per carry. In the air, QB Caleb Hanie has completed nearly 70% of his passes this year and is the kind of guy that can really keep the chains moving. He is averaging a whopping 8.3 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and he shoud have the best game of his career in this one against a UNLV defense that allows their last three opposing QB's to complete 69.1% of their passes for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. As long as the Rams offensive line can keep Hanie from getting sacked so much, the Rams should be able to connect on several deep ball plays with WR Johnny Walker and I think they can easily win by three touchdowns.
Trend of the Game: Colorado State is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six as a home favorite.
Colorado State 38, UNLV 17
System Play #8
South Carolina GameCocks -6.5 (3 Units)
The South Carolina Gamecocks have been money in the bank so far this season. They come into this game with a 3-1 ATS record having won 3 of their 5 games on the season. Steve Spurrier has talked several times about this type of game and how the Gamecocks have a lot to prove when it comes to winning games on the road. The Cocks are coming off a great game against Auburn last week and if they can keep the intensity from that game and possibly show the same grit as they did in their opener against Mississippis State on the road, I say they have a good chance of winning this game by two touchdowns. Steve Spurrier is 14-0 lifetime straight up in games versus Kentucky so for those of you who don't like the spread, feel free to drop some cash bombs on the ML because it almost sure to hit. South Carolina have won their last six games against Kentucky and are 4-2 ATS in those games. On more than one occasion this year I have been impressed by Spurrier's guys and now that QB Syvelle Newton is the main quarterback and there is no controversy, I think this team takes off and becomes a force to reckon with in the SEC East. The Gamecocks have the week off next week so this game is big. They are averaging 29.7 points per game in their last three games and have done so on a nice 400.7 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. Kentucky's defense is horrendous as they have allowed 25.3 points per game in their last three on an incredible 489.0 total yards per game and 6.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Mike Davis and company have rushed for 158.0 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry in their last three and should have no problems demolishing a Kentucky run defense that is allowing almost 200 yards rushing per game in their last three and allowing 5.3 yards per carry in the process. Davis should have a field day. In the air, QB Syvelle Newton is turning into a star at SC and although he is completing only 58.4% of his passes in his last three games, he is averaging a huge 8.2 yards per pass attempt. He is going up against a Kentucky defense full of holes that allows a whopping 8.7 yards per pass attempt in their last three and that are going to get burned by Sidney Rice for a possible five touchdowns. South Carolina has all the makings of a big blowout in this game as long as they stay away from penalties. Sc wins big this week.
The Kentucky Wildcats are definitely an improved team from the Wildcats team that won only three games in 2005 and that looked like a program in trouble. They have three wins on the season already and although I see them possibly getting to a Bowl Game when all the dust has settled, I just don't see how they can compete in this game against an up and rising South Carolina team. As I mentioned above, Steve Spurrier has owned the Wildcats in the past and in 14 career games coached against them, he has never lost. The home team is only 4-10 ATS in this series and it makes me wonder why the line on Kentucky is dropping big time and why South Carolina are only favored by four poitns at some books. Regardless, the Wildcats got away with one against Central Michigan last week and in their only two games with any significance, the Wildcats were blown out against Louisville and then against a gun-shy Florida team. Rich Brooks is in year #4 as head coach of this team and although his guys were 4-1 ATS as home dogs in 2005, they have shown no signs of defensive prowness that could possibly come into Saturday and stop this SC offense. The Wildcats are averaging a decent 27.7 points per game in their last three games and have done so on 334.0 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play. South Carolina's defense is allowing only 16.7 points per game in their last three and they have done so by allowing only 302.3 total yards of offense on 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Rafael Little has game breaking speed but the Wildcats don't have an effective system to use him and are rushing for only 77.7 yards per game in their last three. The only way to beat South Carolina is to run the ball effectively because the Cocks have allowed 185.0 rushing yards per game in their last three on a whopping 4.5 yards per carry. In the air, QB Andre Woodson has played very well for Kentucky and is completing 65.4% of his passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt in his last three games. However, the South Carolina defense is relentless and they have allowed their last three QB opponents to complete only 47.3% of their passes for only 6.4 yards per pass attempt and several players in the secondary are going to have to make big plays. This is going to be a test for both teams in this SEC clash but when all is said and done, the Gamecocks are the better team and they should have no problems winning this by a touchdown or more.
Trend of the Game: South Carolina is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight Conference games.
South Carolina 35, Kentucky 21
System Play #9
Wyoming Cowboys -1.5 (3 Units)
The Wyoming Cowboys are the real deal and although they are only 1-4 on the season, their losses have been brutal and they should have won two of the three games they lost. They won their opener against Utah State but they lost by one point in Virginia the following (got jobbed by the refs in that game), then lost by only a touchdown at home against Boise State and then lost by only a touchdown against a very good Air Force and then last week should have beat Syracuse in the Carrier Dome but blew the game late and then lost in overtime. What a disaster. This is a team that is returning 12 starters this season and that right now could possibly be a perfect 5-0 were it not for a lack of closing out games where they were ahead. Wyoming have never played well in Conference road games but with all that this team has been through, coach Joe Glenn has gone easy on the guys this week and wants to make sure that their next game is their best game and that they play an entire four quarters of football in what should be their second win of the year. This is only the second time this season that the Cowboys are going to be favored in a game and maybe that's a good things because the last time they were favored was in that game against Utah State where they won and covered in the opener. The Cowboys are averaging 22.7 points per game in their last three games and have done so with 336.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play. New Mexico's defense is very beatable and they have allowed 21.3 points per game in their last three games. They have also allowed only 306.0 total yards of offense per game on only 4.5 yards per play which is quite impressive. On the ground, the Cowboys don't have much going for them as they average only 112.0 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games but that's because they have played from behind and had to throw the ball. Regardless, New Mexico's defense has been good against the run allowing only 3.9 yards per carry. Not bad but there is room for Wyoming to be successful. In the air, QB Kasrten Sween will probably start this game and he has been great completing 71.4% of his passes this season for an average of 8.3 yards per pass attempt and two touchdowns. The Nex Mexico defense has allowed their last three QB opponents to complete a whopping 68.4% of their passes for 5.4 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line is going to have to do a good job blocking and protecting Sween because if his arm gets going early, he is going to torch the New Mexico secondary for some big time yardage in this game. Wyoming have been jobbed of 2-3 wins this season already and now it's time for them to have an offensive party and lead for the most part of this game.
The Nex Mexico Lobos are one of the only teams in the Country that have completely changed playing styles this season and gone with a passing offense when they have been a running offense for who knows how many years. The transition is never easy and the Lobos have pretty overachieved in many of their games this season. New Mexico is 2-3 on the season but please don't forget their loss against Portland State earlie in the year as well as their blowout loss against Air Force last week. New Mexico is returning only 10 starters this season which is going to be a big problem in games like this one where they have to face teams that are pissed off and ready to blow someone out. New Mexico have won the last six games against Wyoming but this is a fierce bunch from Wyoming coming in here to play and the way things are going for the Lobos, they are going to have a hard time this weekend. All odds are for the Lobos to have a big win here but I want to repeat one more time that this offense is currently underdoing a complete transition into a pass first offense and QB Kyle McKamey is out for the season with a knee injury. The Lobos have averaged only 16.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on a pathetic 254.3 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play in that same span of games. They are up against Wyoming defense that must be tired but that is allowing 29.3 points per game in their last three outings and doing so on only 296.0 total yards of offense and 4.5 yards per play which tells me that this defense is very well coached and should be ready for a big win in this game. On the ground, the Lobos used to run for hundreds of yards per game but are now rushing for only 89.0 yards per game in their last three and it will be hard for them to take advantage of a Wyoming defense that is allowing more than 200 yards rushing per game in their last three games. The idea of changing offensive strategies and sticking to the gameplan is going to prevent the Lobos from running as much as they should in this one. QB Chris Nelson has been a decent replacement and he has some big numbers but he has completed only 53.8% of his passes over the last three games for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Nelson is going to try and force things down the middle which is not a good idea against a Wyoming defense that is allowing only 5.2 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. Their last three opposing QB's have completed only 49.2% of their passes and the interceptions are bound to come for this very agressive Wyoming secondary. New Mexico have had a big fumbling problem this season and seeing that Wyoming have guys who love to strip the ball, the turnovers are definitely going to be the difference in this game and Wyoming should have no problems spanking New Mexico around.
Trend of the Game: The Road Team is 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.
Wyoming 31, New Mexico 24
Sunday, October 8
Miami Ohio Redhawks +11.5 (1 Unit)
The Northern Illinois Huskies are considered the best team in the MAC Conference but what I am intrigued to know is how they are going to perform in what looks to be a huge trap game on a Sunday Night. The MAC Conference has a weird tendency to produce some of the weirdest game outcomes and even if a MAC team starts the season at 0-4 or 1-3, they are probably still going to have a great chance of ending up in the MAC Title game at the end of the season. Northern Illinois have covered only 1 of their 4 lined games this season and are 3-2 straight up. They are coming off a 40-28 win at Ball State which was impressive but doesn't indicate to me that they are ready to go on the National Stage and come up with a huge win over a win hungry Miami Ohio team. The Huskies were 48-41 winners the last time they played here but that was in 2002 and things have changed big time. Coach Novak was a coach at Miami Ohio back in the day and this game means a lot to him but maybe not as much to his players. This is the same Northern Illinois team that played well against Ohio State, lost the next week to Ohio at home, had problems at times with Buffalo at home, that blew out Indiana State and that is now playing road game #2 in a row. The Huskies are averaging a huge 39.7 points per game in their last three games and have averaged 510.0 total yards of offense per game and 8.0 yards per play in that same span of games. On the flip side of things, Miami Ohio is allowing 24.7 points per game in their last three games and have done so by allowing 332.3 total yards of offense on 6.2 yards per play. Sure it has blowout written all over it but just hold on for a sec. On the ground, RB Garrett Wolfe is one of the best in the Country and the Huskies average 338.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games...what the fuck? That's 7.9 yards per carry and Wolfe is definitely going to run for 200+ yards in this game against a Miami Ohio team that is allowing 5.0 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air, QB has been lights out with his passes and is averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt in his last three games and completing 71.0% of his passes in those games. I don't know how this line is not about -20 but there is something fishy with this short line. I say that because Miami Ohio's defense is allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt and they have been torched in every which way possible this season. Northern Illinois are going to score a ton of points in this game but turnovers and lack of defensive prowness is going to cost them big.
The Miami Ohio Redhawks knew this was going to be a rebuilding year but little did they know that come HomeComing night on this Sunday, they would be a pathetic 0-5 on the season and looking like they are not going to win a game all season. I have to however commend Shane Montgomery and his young group of guys because although they have lost every game to this point in the season and although they have a 1-4 ATS record to begin the year, they have battled hard in some games and when you battle hard in the MAC Conference anything is possible and I wouldn't be surprised if the Redhawks found a way to win this game straight up. Miami Ohio is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Conference home games where they are the underdog so you can expect Yager Stadium to be loud and proud in this game. You guys all seem to be forgetting one more time that Miami Ohio almost beat Purdue back in Week 2, they came within two points of beating Kent State the following week and they did a great job last week against Cincinnati even though they lost by 14 points. Their time to shine is now and like I mentioned above, don't be shocked if the RedHawks find a way to pull off the upset and win this game. Again, it's the MAC Conference and crazy things always happen around here. The RedHawks are averaging only 12.7 points per game in their last three games and have done so on265.0 total yards of offense and 3.7 yards per play which is pretty pathetic. However, Northern Illinois have been known in the past for huge defensive breakdowns and although they allow only 18.3 points per game in their last three games, they still allow 332.7 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play in that same span of three games. The RedHawks have not had any success rushing the ball averaging only 65.7 rushing yards per game in their last three. Seeing that Northern Illinois allow less than 100 rushing yards per game in their last three and seeing that the Huskies should be winning for the most part of this game, I think it's safe to say that Miami Ohio won't be doing much running in the end. In the air, QB Mike Kokal (who is questionable for the game but will probably play) has actually done a good job and is completing 62.1% of his passes this season for five touchdowns. Miami Ohio needs him to play in this game if they want any chance of competing in the MAC Conference this season. The RedHawks are passing for only 4.9 yards per pass attempt in their last three games but Northern Illinois' secondary gives up a lot of yardage in the air and the Huskies last three opposing QB's have completed 63.6% of their passes. They have also allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt which means that whoever is playing QB for the RedHawks is going to have the opportunity to go deep several times with WR Ryne Robinson lurking in the deep field. This is going to be one hell of a game and this will definitely not be the blowout game everyone is talking about.
Trend of the Game: Miami Ohio are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs.
Miami Ohio 38, Northern Illinois 37
RECAP:
Marhsall -3 LOSS
NC State +10.5
Utah -2.5 ***POMW***
Middle Tennessee +31.5
Pittsburgh -7
Wisconsin -20 ***POW***
Illinois -7.5
Kent State -24
Michigan -15
Colorado State -15
South Carolina -6.5
Wyoming -1.5
Miami Ohio +11.5
Good Luck to all this week!
:cheers:
