MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 61-64-5 (-270.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 59-62-4 (-264.10 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
Welcome to my College Football thread. This has been by far my worst regular season in CFB which probably means I am heading for a GREAT BOWL SEASON. However, I am going to keep at it for the time being and hope to finish the last few weeks strong. I have confidence in my capping and my abilities to turn things around for the season. My goal now is to make it back to +0.00 Units for the season. You can get if you want but nobody asked you to follow. Good Luck!
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Tuesday, November 13
Ball State Cardinals -6.5 (10 Units)
The Toledo Rockets are quite possibly the hottest second half of the season team in the MAC Conference right now. Since losing their first three games of the season to Purdue, Central Michigan and Kansas, the Toledo Rockets kicked things into high gear and have gone 5-2 straight up since and 4-2 ATS in those games with wins over Iowa State, Liberty, Ohio, Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan. So they have reeled off three straight wins over Conference opponents but believe it or not I still don't trust them here. Don't be fooled by their three straight wins because those wins came at home (all three of them) where the Rockets are 5-2 this season and are almost always unbeatable in the Glass Bowl. However the story changes big time when they play on the road as they are 0-3 away from Toledo this season having lost to Central Michigan by 21, Kansas by 32 and Buffalo by 10. So they are 0-3 ATS in road games this season and now that the season is pretty much on the line here, I'm not too sure how this team will react after playing three straight at home. What I do know however is that the offense has clicked like never before the last three games as the Rockets have scored a total of 165 points in those three games and pretty much blown away all the opponents they have faced which makes you wonder about this line. The Rockets come into this game averaging only 25.7 points per game on the road this season and they have done that by averaging 419.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. Ball State's defense has beeen on and off at home as they have allowed 24.5 points per home game this season on 395.8 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Rockets average 164.7 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.0 yards per carry and they should have an easy time moving the ball against a Ball State defense that has been atrocious against the run allowing 195.0 rushing yards per home game this season on 4.8 yards per carry. We know the ground game is going to work but my big question mark is QB Aaron Opelt because he has not started a road game since September 15. In his two road starts this season, Opelt has completed 58.0% of his passes for 376 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. He is up against a Ball State defense that has allowed visiting opponents to complete 70.0% of thier passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt but again, the Toledo QB play on the road has been very shady. They have thrown 5 interceptions in those three games and need to be careful against a Ball State defense that has intercepted 7 passes in four home games this season. Okay the Ball State defense is not very good but they are a BEND BUT DON'T BREAK type of defense which means they more often than not stop teams in their own Red Zone. You also have to consider that Ball State has allowed that many yards at home this season because their offense is prolific, they strike fast and that usually means the other team is going to get the ball back more often than not. I think Toledo can score some points in this game with their BYE WEEK coming up but I also think that the Ball State defense is going man up after playing three straight road games. Toledo will score points but it won't be enough because Ball State will score just as many and some in the end.
The Ball State Cardinals did not have high expectations coming into this season as they were coming off a 5-7 season in 2006 and a lot of experts predicted them to have the same record this season and once again come close to making a Bowl Game. Well the Cardinals sit at 5-5 on the season right now despite having played against Navy, Nebraska, Illinois and Indiana (winning one of those three games and almost beating Nebraska). So there are two options for this team and head coach Brady Hoke knows it. Either they come out and play some football tonight and put themselves in a postion to be Bowl Eligible for the first time since the 1996 season or they lose another game and pretty leave it up to their last game of the season where they could easily lose on the road and once again finish 5-7 on the year. The Cardinals have only themselves to blame this season because they are only 2-2 at home on the year and they have gone 1-2 ATS in those games. What is a bit discouraging about the Cardinals in this spot is that they have been outyarded in every one of their last five games despite winning two of them. That also means that this team finds a way to get things done despite being outplayed on several occasions (kinda like Wake Forest last year in the ACC Conference). The Cardinals come into this game averaging 33.8 points per home game this season and they have done that by scoring 394.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those home games. That's not all that impressive but they are going up against a Toledo defense that has allowed a whopping 46.7 points per game on the road this season and they have allowed 484.7 total yards of offense per game on 6.7 yards per play in those games. WOW! That is some horrendous defense. On the ground, the Cardinals will give you all sorts of looks and run a bunch of different guys as they average 157.5 rushing yards per home game this season on 4.2 yards per carry and they are going up against a Toledo run defense that has allowed a pathetic 233.3 rushing yards per road game this season on 5.4 yards per carry. UNREAL! In the air, QB Nate Davis has an outstanding arm and has been both good and bad this season. Davis has completed 55.6% of his passes this season for 2785 passing yards, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 22 touchdown passes and only 6 interceptions on the year. Toledo's defense has allowed opposing road QB's to complete only 55.7% of their passes this season but that's because a) teams run them into the ground and don't really pass much against them and b) when teams do pass against them, they average 8.6 yards per pass attempt which means that Ball State should have no problems hitting a few Home Run balls here and there. WR Dante Love and TE Darius Hill are both going to end up on 1st or 2nd ALL MAC Conference teams at the end of the season. Hill is the best TE in the MAC and has 7 touchdown receptions while Love has almost 1000 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns this season. Davis has been outstanding at home and has thrown only once interception at home this season while Toledo has a big fat 0 interceptions away from home which means the chances of them forcing turnovers tonight is not very good. Toledo has forced 8 fumbles on the road this season but Ball State has lost only 3 fumbles in four home games this seaosn and I don't think they are going to have a problem. There is just way too much on the line for the Cardinals in this game. The Cardinals should have no problems putting big numbers up in this game and they have to make sure this game doesn't turnout like the CMU home game earlier this season.
BALL STATE'S FIRST BOWL GAME SINCE 1996 IS ON THE LINE TONIGHT! Having said that, both teams are sitting at #2 in the MAC Conference West Division and both teams have to win here and hope Central Michigan somehow loses their final two games of the season. That's the only way either one of these teams can get into the MAC Championship Game. Although improbable, the Cardinals only have one thing on their minds and that is making it to their first Bowl Game in more than a decade and winning this game will almost surely guarantee that they make it in. Now the first thing that comes to mind is that this game is going to be a shootout because of how bad both defenses have been respectively on the road and at home this season but I noticed that the two teams have averaged only 40.0 points per game in their 32 game history of playing against each other so you might want to think about that one again. I also noticed that the visiting teams is only 3-10-1 straight up the last 14 times these two teams have faced each other. Toledo has traditionally been a very good team to bet on when they play the game right before their huge game against Bowling Green to end the season but they are 0-2 straight up and ATS in this spot the last two seasons after going 11-0-2 in the 13 times before that. Both teams have a lot of firepower on offense but Ball State's defense is definitely better than Toledo's road defense and the Cardinals have too much on the line tonight not to bet on them. Some of these Toledo players have been to Bowl Game and so has Tom Astutuz. None of these Ball State guys have ever made it and Brady Hoke has never made it. That is about to change.
Trend of the Game: Ball State is 5-1 ATS in their last six coming off a BYE WEEK.
Ball State 39, Toledo 24
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 59-62-4 (-264.10 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
Welcome to my College Football thread. This has been by far my worst regular season in CFB which probably means I am heading for a GREAT BOWL SEASON. However, I am going to keep at it for the time being and hope to finish the last few weeks strong. I have confidence in my capping and my abilities to turn things around for the season. My goal now is to make it back to +0.00 Units for the season. You can get if you want but nobody asked you to follow. Good Luck!
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Tuesday, November 13
Ball State Cardinals -6.5 (10 Units)
The Toledo Rockets are quite possibly the hottest second half of the season team in the MAC Conference right now. Since losing their first three games of the season to Purdue, Central Michigan and Kansas, the Toledo Rockets kicked things into high gear and have gone 5-2 straight up since and 4-2 ATS in those games with wins over Iowa State, Liberty, Ohio, Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan. So they have reeled off three straight wins over Conference opponents but believe it or not I still don't trust them here. Don't be fooled by their three straight wins because those wins came at home (all three of them) where the Rockets are 5-2 this season and are almost always unbeatable in the Glass Bowl. However the story changes big time when they play on the road as they are 0-3 away from Toledo this season having lost to Central Michigan by 21, Kansas by 32 and Buffalo by 10. So they are 0-3 ATS in road games this season and now that the season is pretty much on the line here, I'm not too sure how this team will react after playing three straight at home. What I do know however is that the offense has clicked like never before the last three games as the Rockets have scored a total of 165 points in those three games and pretty much blown away all the opponents they have faced which makes you wonder about this line. The Rockets come into this game averaging only 25.7 points per game on the road this season and they have done that by averaging 419.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. Ball State's defense has beeen on and off at home as they have allowed 24.5 points per home game this season on 395.8 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Rockets average 164.7 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.0 yards per carry and they should have an easy time moving the ball against a Ball State defense that has been atrocious against the run allowing 195.0 rushing yards per home game this season on 4.8 yards per carry. We know the ground game is going to work but my big question mark is QB Aaron Opelt because he has not started a road game since September 15. In his two road starts this season, Opelt has completed 58.0% of his passes for 376 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. He is up against a Ball State defense that has allowed visiting opponents to complete 70.0% of thier passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt but again, the Toledo QB play on the road has been very shady. They have thrown 5 interceptions in those three games and need to be careful against a Ball State defense that has intercepted 7 passes in four home games this season. Okay the Ball State defense is not very good but they are a BEND BUT DON'T BREAK type of defense which means they more often than not stop teams in their own Red Zone. You also have to consider that Ball State has allowed that many yards at home this season because their offense is prolific, they strike fast and that usually means the other team is going to get the ball back more often than not. I think Toledo can score some points in this game with their BYE WEEK coming up but I also think that the Ball State defense is going man up after playing three straight road games. Toledo will score points but it won't be enough because Ball State will score just as many and some in the end.
The Ball State Cardinals did not have high expectations coming into this season as they were coming off a 5-7 season in 2006 and a lot of experts predicted them to have the same record this season and once again come close to making a Bowl Game. Well the Cardinals sit at 5-5 on the season right now despite having played against Navy, Nebraska, Illinois and Indiana (winning one of those three games and almost beating Nebraska). So there are two options for this team and head coach Brady Hoke knows it. Either they come out and play some football tonight and put themselves in a postion to be Bowl Eligible for the first time since the 1996 season or they lose another game and pretty leave it up to their last game of the season where they could easily lose on the road and once again finish 5-7 on the year. The Cardinals have only themselves to blame this season because they are only 2-2 at home on the year and they have gone 1-2 ATS in those games. What is a bit discouraging about the Cardinals in this spot is that they have been outyarded in every one of their last five games despite winning two of them. That also means that this team finds a way to get things done despite being outplayed on several occasions (kinda like Wake Forest last year in the ACC Conference). The Cardinals come into this game averaging 33.8 points per home game this season and they have done that by scoring 394.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those home games. That's not all that impressive but they are going up against a Toledo defense that has allowed a whopping 46.7 points per game on the road this season and they have allowed 484.7 total yards of offense per game on 6.7 yards per play in those games. WOW! That is some horrendous defense. On the ground, the Cardinals will give you all sorts of looks and run a bunch of different guys as they average 157.5 rushing yards per home game this season on 4.2 yards per carry and they are going up against a Toledo run defense that has allowed a pathetic 233.3 rushing yards per road game this season on 5.4 yards per carry. UNREAL! In the air, QB Nate Davis has an outstanding arm and has been both good and bad this season. Davis has completed 55.6% of his passes this season for 2785 passing yards, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 22 touchdown passes and only 6 interceptions on the year. Toledo's defense has allowed opposing road QB's to complete only 55.7% of their passes this season but that's because a) teams run them into the ground and don't really pass much against them and b) when teams do pass against them, they average 8.6 yards per pass attempt which means that Ball State should have no problems hitting a few Home Run balls here and there. WR Dante Love and TE Darius Hill are both going to end up on 1st or 2nd ALL MAC Conference teams at the end of the season. Hill is the best TE in the MAC and has 7 touchdown receptions while Love has almost 1000 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns this season. Davis has been outstanding at home and has thrown only once interception at home this season while Toledo has a big fat 0 interceptions away from home which means the chances of them forcing turnovers tonight is not very good. Toledo has forced 8 fumbles on the road this season but Ball State has lost only 3 fumbles in four home games this seaosn and I don't think they are going to have a problem. There is just way too much on the line for the Cardinals in this game. The Cardinals should have no problems putting big numbers up in this game and they have to make sure this game doesn't turnout like the CMU home game earlier this season.
BALL STATE'S FIRST BOWL GAME SINCE 1996 IS ON THE LINE TONIGHT! Having said that, both teams are sitting at #2 in the MAC Conference West Division and both teams have to win here and hope Central Michigan somehow loses their final two games of the season. That's the only way either one of these teams can get into the MAC Championship Game. Although improbable, the Cardinals only have one thing on their minds and that is making it to their first Bowl Game in more than a decade and winning this game will almost surely guarantee that they make it in. Now the first thing that comes to mind is that this game is going to be a shootout because of how bad both defenses have been respectively on the road and at home this season but I noticed that the two teams have averaged only 40.0 points per game in their 32 game history of playing against each other so you might want to think about that one again. I also noticed that the visiting teams is only 3-10-1 straight up the last 14 times these two teams have faced each other. Toledo has traditionally been a very good team to bet on when they play the game right before their huge game against Bowling Green to end the season but they are 0-2 straight up and ATS in this spot the last two seasons after going 11-0-2 in the 13 times before that. Both teams have a lot of firepower on offense but Ball State's defense is definitely better than Toledo's road defense and the Cardinals have too much on the line tonight not to bet on them. Some of these Toledo players have been to Bowl Game and so has Tom Astutuz. None of these Ball State guys have ever made it and Brady Hoke has never made it. That is about to change.
Trend of the Game: Ball State is 5-1 ATS in their last six coming off a BYE WEEK.
Ball State 39, Toledo 24
