MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 50-48-3 (-66.10 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 48-45-2 (-60.10 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference, well not yet anyways and every single week that goes by brings a new lesson in the world of college football betting. Best of luck to all this week!
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Thursday, October 25
Boston College Eagles +3 (25 Units) ***ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Boston College Eagles have my vote and if I was one of the media credential guys who was able to vote on the weekly TOP 25, this team would have my vote for the #1 TEAM IN THE COUNTRY. Yup you heard it here first guys. LSU would be my #2 because they have had a much tougher schedule but the one loss is a factor and Boston College has yet to flinch at what has been thrown at them. The Eagles have been one of the best, if not THE best road underdog team in the Country the last four years and you can read a bit more about that later in this writeup. I know Virginia Tech has owned this series in the past but the Eagles are 1-0 against the Hokies with Matt Ryan as their QB and this is the best QB this school has seen in a very long time. I know a lot of you think Boston College's last four opponents (Army, Massasschusetts, Bowling Green and Notre Dame) are as mediocre as it gets and you are not wrong on that. However the Eagles are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in ACC Conference play this year and in those other four games they beat their opponents by an average margin of 18.5 points which is pretty damn impressive for anybody considering those games meant nothing. This is the team everybody wrote off at the beginning of the year but they are showing that Jeff Jagodzinski is probably a better suited head coach for this team and he has done the best he could with his 16 returning starters. The Eagles come into this game averaging 34.6 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 455.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play. Virginia Tech is and always been good defensively but they are on pace to allow their highest total of points in four seasons as they have allowed 16.0 points per game this year on 302.1 total yards of offense and only 4.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Boston College has one of the most veteran and experienced backfields in college football as RBs Andre Callender and LV Whitworth have combined for 11 rushing touchdown and both average 4.9 yards per carry this season. Virginia Tech is very good against the run as they have allowed only 98.0 rushing yards per game and only 2.8 yards per carry this season. That means to beat them you have to have a good QB and the Eagles have one of the best. Matt Ryan has completed 63.2% of his passes this season for 2149 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 17 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Viriginia Tech has allowed opposing QB's to complete 54.6% of their passes this season for 5.7 yards per pass attempt which works for Ryan as well because he has 7 different players who have caught 10+ passes this season which means the options (long and short) come by the numbers. Virginia Tech's defensive succes is laregely based on their ability to pass rush as they have 25 sacks in seven games. However, Boston College has one of the best offensive lines and they have allowed only 6 sacks in seven games this season. WOW! Ryan rarely makes mistakes and mistakes is what the Hokies thrive on defensively. You also have to consider that the Eagles have lost only four fumbles in their seven games this season. If you're going to bet on teams like this, you better bet they have to be that good when it comes to turnovers. Boston College is going to score some points in this one and Virginia Tech will struggle to get things going on defense.
The Virginia Tech Hokies are loved by a lot of people tonight but that's only because this game is a) being played on a Thursday Night and b) because the Hokies are in Blacksburrg where it is apparently impossible for opponents to win. So tell me this guys...if this place is so impossible to play in how did East Carolina come in here on opening day and almost win? Or how did North Carolina walk in here on Homecoming a few weeks back and keep the game a close 17-10? Let's face it. This place went through a lot last year and although the season is being played in honor of those the victims of last April, the whole thing seems to be taking a toll on the Hokies when they play at home and I have a feeling the emotion of the game tonight might be a bit too much. Sure they are very good on Thursdays and very good on revenge but Boston College is a better football team. You have to be impressed however with what the Hokies have done in their last two games (both on the road mind you) as the beat the crap out of both Clemson and Duke. The Hokies just don't have the prowess of the last few seasons as they have been held to under 20 points three times already this season while having done that only four times total in both 2005 and 2006 combined. QB Tyrod Taylor was a new star on this team but he is out tonight. Sean Glennon is back in and despite playing well as the backup last week, the pressure is back on him as a starter this week and he has crashed and burned in this role in the past. The Hokies come into this game averaging 28.1 points per game this season but the telling stat is that they average only 298.9 total yards of offense per game and only 4.8 yards per play which means that they rely heavily on the success of their defense. Boston College has allowed only 17.7 points per game this season, which is a bit high for them, and allowed only 323.6 total yards of offense and only 4.5 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Hokies have not been able to run the ball this season as they average only 119.4 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. That's because their O-Line is not really ACC-good. Boston College is one of the best teams against the run having allowed only 46.4 rushing yards per game and 1.8 yards per carry this season which means they can afford to come after the Hokies here. In the air, Glennon has completed 63.2% of his passes this season for 583 passing yards (250 of those against Duke), 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Well I don't doubt he can move the chains by passing the ball in this game because Boston College have allowed oppoents to complete 56.0% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. However, the weakness of the offensive line is a big problem because the Hokies have allowed a whopping 24 sacks in seven games this season and the Eagles will know to come after them hard as they have 10 sacks of their own on the year. The added pressure could mean big trouble for Glennon who thrown 13 interceptions in 14 or 15 career starts at Virginia Tech. Boston College has intercepted a whopping 18 passes this season and they are lethal against mediocre passers and bad decision makers like Glennon so I think the Hokies are in big trouble tonight. The Hokies have also fumbled 11 times this season and lost 5 of those fumbles so the turnover battle could play a key part in how this game plays out in the end. Both teams take a large amount of penalties and each average more than 60 yards of penalties per game so there isn't much of a difference when it comes to discipline. Regardless of the QB situation, Boston College will score enough points that Virginia Tech can't match and their defense will come up with the much needed big plays to win this game.
For those still doubting what Boston College can do, they are 7-1 ATS since 2003 as road underdogs and this is exactly the kind of spot they love to be in. You can rant and rave all you want about Virginia Tech and how they are 13-2 when playing on Thursday Night and 5-0 in their last five revenge games but let's keep it real here for a bit guys. They are only 2-4 ATS on the year and 0-3 ATS as a home favorite this year. I don't know what it is about Blacksburg this year but it doesn't seem like a hot spot for this team to get up on their high horse and play up to their abilities. What is this crap I hear about Boston College not playing against any good opponents? The last time I checked they have had a tougher schedule than Virginia Tech has. The Eagles have played against two TOP 25 caliber teams and beat both of them (Georgia Tech and Wake Forest) by a combined 24 points. Virginia Tech has played against two TOP 25 caliber teams and that was their blowout loss to LSU and their road win over Clemson. Enough said. I know a lot of people betting on the Hokies are banking for this to be another South Florida and Rutgers game from last week but make no mistake about it...the Eagles are much more experienced than South Florida and this team deserves the #1 ranking in the Country coming into this game. Also keep in mind all the stats I have listed in this writeup because the strength of schedule has been virtually the same for both teams. Boston College gets it done tonight...their offense is just too good.
Trend of the Game: Boston College is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.
Boston College 24, Virginia Tech 16
Air Force Falcons +5.5 (10 Units)
The Air Force Falcons come into this game in pretty damn fine form which is why it's tough to understand why the line is like it is. Air Force is definitely the best team in the Mountain West Conference this season but they are being disrespected left and right by not only the oddsmakers but by analysts of this conference. I don't know how much more you can ask from this Troy Calhoun team as they are 6-2 on the season and have done a great job covering spreads with their 5-2 ATS mark. I know they have looked Jekyll and Hyde-ish on the road this season as they looked very good in their road games against Utah and Colorado State but looked dazed and confused in their road losses to BYU and Navy but this is a big game for them and I think Calhoun is going to have them ready to go. Calhoun is a guy with NFL experience and I think the fact that he is the first head coach of Air Force who is actually an alumni of the academy, has made a really big difference. The Falcons have won three straight games and seem to be on quite the roll heading into a crucial part of their season. They have already beat two of the top five teams in this Conference (Utah and Wyoming) by an average of 8 points per game so New Mexico (being another top team in the conference) has to be ready for them. The Falcons come into this game averaging 24.5 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 386.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those games. New Mexico's defense is the best it has been since 2004 as they have allowed only 17.4 points per game this season and allowed only 323.4 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play in those games. On the ground, we all know how much the Falcons like to run the ball and that has not changed this season as they average a whopping 259.9 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. New Mexico has done a great job against the run this season allowing 94.4 rushing yards per game and only 3.0 yards per carry but this is the toughest running attack they have seen yet. In the air, QB Sean Carney has attempted a lot more passes than people think. This is not Navy guys...the Air Force actually throw the ball. Carney has completed 61.7% of his 133 pass attempts this season for 987 passing yards, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions which is pretty good for a guy who has also rushed for 338 yards, 3.8 yards per carry and 2 touchdowns. The New Mexico pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.0% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt which leaves a lot of options open for Carney in this one. Carney does not make many mistakes passing the ball which is good because the Hobos have 7 interceptions on the season and can make you pay if you throw dirt. New Mexico's defensive success has been largely based on the amount of fumbles they force per game (they have forced 14 fumbles in seven games) but the problem there is that Air Force has lost only 6 fumbles this season and for a team that runs the ball 52.1 times per game, that's pretty damn good. New Mexico can stop Air Force from scoring big time points in this game but the Falcons will get enough done here to put necessary points on the board and win this football game for the fifth straight time against New Mexico.
The New Mexico Lobos are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers in tonight's game and it's time to see if they can live up to the hype. The way the line has been set for this game is as if New Mexico is the best team in this Conference. Well they are far from it as BYU, Air Force, Utah and Wyoming are all better and Air Force has already taken care of of two of those teams. I say that New Mexico is ranked 5th in the Mountain West Conference because sure they have 5 wins and 2 losses but their biggest win this year came against Wyoming who Air Force also beat without problems. Don't talk to me about their 29-27 win over Arizona on the road earlier this season because we all know how bad the Wildcats are and I don't even rank them in the TOP 100 teams in this Country. Let's take a look at who the Lobos have beat. They beat New Mexico State the #117 team in this Country, they beat Arizona the #116 team in this Country, they beat Sacramento State a I-AA team, they beat Wyoming the #63 team in the Country and they beat San Diego State the #128 team in this Country (counting I-AA schools as well). Well Air Force is my #47 team in the Nation so the Lobos are in trouble. The Lobos come into this game averaging 28.7 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 407.1 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play. Air Force has their best defense in years with new DC Tim DeRuyter as they have allowed only 17.6 points per game this season and have done it by also allowing only 371.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, New Mexico seems really stuck on running the ball as they have rushed for 146.9 yards per game this season but for only 3.6 yards per carry on 41.3 attempts per game. Air Force is very much run-tested as teams tend to pound away on them for 40+ carries per game and they allow only 155.6 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry so they can stop the Hobos. In the air, New Mexico QB Donovan Porterie has completed 63.0% of his passes this season for 1784 passing yards, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Well the Air Force pass defense has been suspect at times as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 58.6% of their passes this season for 6.9 yards per pass attempt so Porterie is going to have some success moving the ball deep. However, I still think the Lobos run way too much and expect way too much from RB Rodney Ferguson and that hampers their passing attack plans. Porterie can be careless with his passes since most of them are deep balls and Air Force can take advantage of that with their 13 interceptions in eight games this year. This secondary takes a lot of chances and they tend to payoff. Finally, Nex Mexio is averaging 6.3 penalties per game this season for 48.6 penalty yards per game while Air Force average only 4.8 penalties per game this season. This is going to be a good game but Nex Mexico can't match what Air Force brings to the table.
Once again the oddsmakers are playing tricks on us or something. You guys are going to think I'm crazy or something but Air Force is the #1 TEAM IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST despite not being as recognized as BYU, Utah and Air Force and this is a great chance to catch the guys in Vegas sleeping at the wheel. Keep in mind all the stats I mentioned in this writeup and know that Air Force has the #80 ranked toughest schedule in the Nation up to this point of the season while New Mexico comes into the game with the #106 ranked strength of schedule up to this point in the season (which is the worst ranking in the conference). That right there tells you which team has been overrated by oddsmakers. The biggest difference for Air Force this season has been the addition of Defensive Coordinator Tim DeRuyter from Nevada (who also coached at Ohio for three seasons). He has coached at three different I-A school in his 15 year career and his teams have almost always been ranked in the TOP 15 defenses in the Nation. Don't believe me? Check his career records and also notice that Air Force is #17 in the Nation right now. That is your x-factor ladies and gentlemen. He has turned this Air Force defense around and has all the guys playing the way he wants them to which has pretty much 10 points off the average points allowed of the last three seasons. Air Force shows everyone why they are the best team in this Conference tonight.
Trend of the Game: New Mexico is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games as the favorite.
Air Force 32, New Mexico 18
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 48-45-2 (-60.10 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference, well not yet anyways and every single week that goes by brings a new lesson in the world of college football betting. Best of luck to all this week!
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Thursday, October 25
Boston College Eagles +3 (25 Units) ***ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Boston College Eagles have my vote and if I was one of the media credential guys who was able to vote on the weekly TOP 25, this team would have my vote for the #1 TEAM IN THE COUNTRY. Yup you heard it here first guys. LSU would be my #2 because they have had a much tougher schedule but the one loss is a factor and Boston College has yet to flinch at what has been thrown at them. The Eagles have been one of the best, if not THE best road underdog team in the Country the last four years and you can read a bit more about that later in this writeup. I know Virginia Tech has owned this series in the past but the Eagles are 1-0 against the Hokies with Matt Ryan as their QB and this is the best QB this school has seen in a very long time. I know a lot of you think Boston College's last four opponents (Army, Massasschusetts, Bowling Green and Notre Dame) are as mediocre as it gets and you are not wrong on that. However the Eagles are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in ACC Conference play this year and in those other four games they beat their opponents by an average margin of 18.5 points which is pretty damn impressive for anybody considering those games meant nothing. This is the team everybody wrote off at the beginning of the year but they are showing that Jeff Jagodzinski is probably a better suited head coach for this team and he has done the best he could with his 16 returning starters. The Eagles come into this game averaging 34.6 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 455.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play. Virginia Tech is and always been good defensively but they are on pace to allow their highest total of points in four seasons as they have allowed 16.0 points per game this year on 302.1 total yards of offense and only 4.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Boston College has one of the most veteran and experienced backfields in college football as RBs Andre Callender and LV Whitworth have combined for 11 rushing touchdown and both average 4.9 yards per carry this season. Virginia Tech is very good against the run as they have allowed only 98.0 rushing yards per game and only 2.8 yards per carry this season. That means to beat them you have to have a good QB and the Eagles have one of the best. Matt Ryan has completed 63.2% of his passes this season for 2149 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 17 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Viriginia Tech has allowed opposing QB's to complete 54.6% of their passes this season for 5.7 yards per pass attempt which works for Ryan as well because he has 7 different players who have caught 10+ passes this season which means the options (long and short) come by the numbers. Virginia Tech's defensive succes is laregely based on their ability to pass rush as they have 25 sacks in seven games. However, Boston College has one of the best offensive lines and they have allowed only 6 sacks in seven games this season. WOW! Ryan rarely makes mistakes and mistakes is what the Hokies thrive on defensively. You also have to consider that the Eagles have lost only four fumbles in their seven games this season. If you're going to bet on teams like this, you better bet they have to be that good when it comes to turnovers. Boston College is going to score some points in this one and Virginia Tech will struggle to get things going on defense.
The Virginia Tech Hokies are loved by a lot of people tonight but that's only because this game is a) being played on a Thursday Night and b) because the Hokies are in Blacksburrg where it is apparently impossible for opponents to win. So tell me this guys...if this place is so impossible to play in how did East Carolina come in here on opening day and almost win? Or how did North Carolina walk in here on Homecoming a few weeks back and keep the game a close 17-10? Let's face it. This place went through a lot last year and although the season is being played in honor of those the victims of last April, the whole thing seems to be taking a toll on the Hokies when they play at home and I have a feeling the emotion of the game tonight might be a bit too much. Sure they are very good on Thursdays and very good on revenge but Boston College is a better football team. You have to be impressed however with what the Hokies have done in their last two games (both on the road mind you) as the beat the crap out of both Clemson and Duke. The Hokies just don't have the prowess of the last few seasons as they have been held to under 20 points three times already this season while having done that only four times total in both 2005 and 2006 combined. QB Tyrod Taylor was a new star on this team but he is out tonight. Sean Glennon is back in and despite playing well as the backup last week, the pressure is back on him as a starter this week and he has crashed and burned in this role in the past. The Hokies come into this game averaging 28.1 points per game this season but the telling stat is that they average only 298.9 total yards of offense per game and only 4.8 yards per play which means that they rely heavily on the success of their defense. Boston College has allowed only 17.7 points per game this season, which is a bit high for them, and allowed only 323.6 total yards of offense and only 4.5 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Hokies have not been able to run the ball this season as they average only 119.4 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. That's because their O-Line is not really ACC-good. Boston College is one of the best teams against the run having allowed only 46.4 rushing yards per game and 1.8 yards per carry this season which means they can afford to come after the Hokies here. In the air, Glennon has completed 63.2% of his passes this season for 583 passing yards (250 of those against Duke), 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Well I don't doubt he can move the chains by passing the ball in this game because Boston College have allowed oppoents to complete 56.0% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. However, the weakness of the offensive line is a big problem because the Hokies have allowed a whopping 24 sacks in seven games this season and the Eagles will know to come after them hard as they have 10 sacks of their own on the year. The added pressure could mean big trouble for Glennon who thrown 13 interceptions in 14 or 15 career starts at Virginia Tech. Boston College has intercepted a whopping 18 passes this season and they are lethal against mediocre passers and bad decision makers like Glennon so I think the Hokies are in big trouble tonight. The Hokies have also fumbled 11 times this season and lost 5 of those fumbles so the turnover battle could play a key part in how this game plays out in the end. Both teams take a large amount of penalties and each average more than 60 yards of penalties per game so there isn't much of a difference when it comes to discipline. Regardless of the QB situation, Boston College will score enough points that Virginia Tech can't match and their defense will come up with the much needed big plays to win this game.
For those still doubting what Boston College can do, they are 7-1 ATS since 2003 as road underdogs and this is exactly the kind of spot they love to be in. You can rant and rave all you want about Virginia Tech and how they are 13-2 when playing on Thursday Night and 5-0 in their last five revenge games but let's keep it real here for a bit guys. They are only 2-4 ATS on the year and 0-3 ATS as a home favorite this year. I don't know what it is about Blacksburg this year but it doesn't seem like a hot spot for this team to get up on their high horse and play up to their abilities. What is this crap I hear about Boston College not playing against any good opponents? The last time I checked they have had a tougher schedule than Virginia Tech has. The Eagles have played against two TOP 25 caliber teams and beat both of them (Georgia Tech and Wake Forest) by a combined 24 points. Virginia Tech has played against two TOP 25 caliber teams and that was their blowout loss to LSU and their road win over Clemson. Enough said. I know a lot of people betting on the Hokies are banking for this to be another South Florida and Rutgers game from last week but make no mistake about it...the Eagles are much more experienced than South Florida and this team deserves the #1 ranking in the Country coming into this game. Also keep in mind all the stats I have listed in this writeup because the strength of schedule has been virtually the same for both teams. Boston College gets it done tonight...their offense is just too good.
Trend of the Game: Boston College is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.
Boston College 24, Virginia Tech 16
Air Force Falcons +5.5 (10 Units)
The Air Force Falcons come into this game in pretty damn fine form which is why it's tough to understand why the line is like it is. Air Force is definitely the best team in the Mountain West Conference this season but they are being disrespected left and right by not only the oddsmakers but by analysts of this conference. I don't know how much more you can ask from this Troy Calhoun team as they are 6-2 on the season and have done a great job covering spreads with their 5-2 ATS mark. I know they have looked Jekyll and Hyde-ish on the road this season as they looked very good in their road games against Utah and Colorado State but looked dazed and confused in their road losses to BYU and Navy but this is a big game for them and I think Calhoun is going to have them ready to go. Calhoun is a guy with NFL experience and I think the fact that he is the first head coach of Air Force who is actually an alumni of the academy, has made a really big difference. The Falcons have won three straight games and seem to be on quite the roll heading into a crucial part of their season. They have already beat two of the top five teams in this Conference (Utah and Wyoming) by an average of 8 points per game so New Mexico (being another top team in the conference) has to be ready for them. The Falcons come into this game averaging 24.5 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 386.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those games. New Mexico's defense is the best it has been since 2004 as they have allowed only 17.4 points per game this season and allowed only 323.4 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play in those games. On the ground, we all know how much the Falcons like to run the ball and that has not changed this season as they average a whopping 259.9 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. New Mexico has done a great job against the run this season allowing 94.4 rushing yards per game and only 3.0 yards per carry but this is the toughest running attack they have seen yet. In the air, QB Sean Carney has attempted a lot more passes than people think. This is not Navy guys...the Air Force actually throw the ball. Carney has completed 61.7% of his 133 pass attempts this season for 987 passing yards, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions which is pretty good for a guy who has also rushed for 338 yards, 3.8 yards per carry and 2 touchdowns. The New Mexico pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.0% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt which leaves a lot of options open for Carney in this one. Carney does not make many mistakes passing the ball which is good because the Hobos have 7 interceptions on the season and can make you pay if you throw dirt. New Mexico's defensive success has been largely based on the amount of fumbles they force per game (they have forced 14 fumbles in seven games) but the problem there is that Air Force has lost only 6 fumbles this season and for a team that runs the ball 52.1 times per game, that's pretty damn good. New Mexico can stop Air Force from scoring big time points in this game but the Falcons will get enough done here to put necessary points on the board and win this football game for the fifth straight time against New Mexico.
The New Mexico Lobos are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers in tonight's game and it's time to see if they can live up to the hype. The way the line has been set for this game is as if New Mexico is the best team in this Conference. Well they are far from it as BYU, Air Force, Utah and Wyoming are all better and Air Force has already taken care of of two of those teams. I say that New Mexico is ranked 5th in the Mountain West Conference because sure they have 5 wins and 2 losses but their biggest win this year came against Wyoming who Air Force also beat without problems. Don't talk to me about their 29-27 win over Arizona on the road earlier this season because we all know how bad the Wildcats are and I don't even rank them in the TOP 100 teams in this Country. Let's take a look at who the Lobos have beat. They beat New Mexico State the #117 team in this Country, they beat Arizona the #116 team in this Country, they beat Sacramento State a I-AA team, they beat Wyoming the #63 team in the Country and they beat San Diego State the #128 team in this Country (counting I-AA schools as well). Well Air Force is my #47 team in the Nation so the Lobos are in trouble. The Lobos come into this game averaging 28.7 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 407.1 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play. Air Force has their best defense in years with new DC Tim DeRuyter as they have allowed only 17.6 points per game this season and have done it by also allowing only 371.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, New Mexico seems really stuck on running the ball as they have rushed for 146.9 yards per game this season but for only 3.6 yards per carry on 41.3 attempts per game. Air Force is very much run-tested as teams tend to pound away on them for 40+ carries per game and they allow only 155.6 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry so they can stop the Hobos. In the air, New Mexico QB Donovan Porterie has completed 63.0% of his passes this season for 1784 passing yards, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Well the Air Force pass defense has been suspect at times as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 58.6% of their passes this season for 6.9 yards per pass attempt so Porterie is going to have some success moving the ball deep. However, I still think the Lobos run way too much and expect way too much from RB Rodney Ferguson and that hampers their passing attack plans. Porterie can be careless with his passes since most of them are deep balls and Air Force can take advantage of that with their 13 interceptions in eight games this year. This secondary takes a lot of chances and they tend to payoff. Finally, Nex Mexio is averaging 6.3 penalties per game this season for 48.6 penalty yards per game while Air Force average only 4.8 penalties per game this season. This is going to be a good game but Nex Mexico can't match what Air Force brings to the table.
Once again the oddsmakers are playing tricks on us or something. You guys are going to think I'm crazy or something but Air Force is the #1 TEAM IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST despite not being as recognized as BYU, Utah and Air Force and this is a great chance to catch the guys in Vegas sleeping at the wheel. Keep in mind all the stats I mentioned in this writeup and know that Air Force has the #80 ranked toughest schedule in the Nation up to this point of the season while New Mexico comes into the game with the #106 ranked strength of schedule up to this point in the season (which is the worst ranking in the conference). That right there tells you which team has been overrated by oddsmakers. The biggest difference for Air Force this season has been the addition of Defensive Coordinator Tim DeRuyter from Nevada (who also coached at Ohio for three seasons). He has coached at three different I-A school in his 15 year career and his teams have almost always been ranked in the TOP 15 defenses in the Nation. Don't believe me? Check his career records and also notice that Air Force is #17 in the Nation right now. That is your x-factor ladies and gentlemen. He has turned this Air Force defense around and has all the guys playing the way he wants them to which has pretty much 10 points off the average points allowed of the last three seasons. Air Force shows everyone why they are the best team in this Conference tonight.
Trend of the Game: New Mexico is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games as the favorite.
Air Force 32, New Mexico 18
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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