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MistaFlava's CFB THURSDAY NIGHT ***Power Selection*** (Writeup and Analysis)

MistaFlava

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2006 CFB Record: 51-36-2 (-9.60 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 41-28-2 ATS (-11.80 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-7 (+2.20 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 4-4 (-2.00 units)

PLAY OF THE MONTH: 2-0 (+20.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 0-1 (-55.00 Units)


35-14-2 ATS (71%) in Football the last three weeks

Last weekend wasn't my best CFB betting weekend but it was still a good one and I am looking to make large profits again this week. Things are getting a lot more complicated now with sharp lines and all but there are still some gifts out there for the taking. Good luck to all this week!

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Thursday, October 26


Virginia Tech Hokies +4.5 (20 Units) ***THURSDAY ESPN PLAY OF THE MONTH***

The Clemson Tigers have cost me some money this season and they have won me money this season. I can't say that going against a team that is 6-2 ATS on the season makes any sense really but I would like to remind all the inexperienced sports gamblers out there that betting on a football team is not always about overall talent and overall skill. If things were that easy, every favortie would win and cover every game which is obviously never the case. Intangibles play a huge part in College Football weekday games and certain variables sometimes overtake whatever skill advantage a team may have. The Tigers are 7-1 on the season and in clear control of the ACC Atlantic Division. However, they do have some teams like Wake Forest that are knocking on the door and quite anxiously waiting for the Tigers to fail. Lets have a look at their road games so far this season. The Tigers went into BC (tough atmosphere) and lost in OT. They then went to FSU (Tallahassee is quiet these days) and won. They then went to Wake Forest where they trailed by a lot the entire game before winning on a late play. Then there was the Temple game...enough said. The Tigers are averaging only 29.0 points per road game this season on a whopping 417.3 total yards and 6.0 yards per play. However, those games were against some rather weak teams. The Hokies defense is allowing only 11.4 points per home game this season on 233.4 total yards and only 4.0 yards per play. Not bad at all for a Frank Beamer defense that is big play hungry. The Tigers could be without their star RB James Davis which would be a huge deal because they average 167.0 rushing yards per road game on 4.6 yards per carry in the last three. Even if Davis does play, VTech is allowing only 102.2 rushing yards per game at home on 2.2 yards per carry. Without Davis, Clemson is in trouble. In the air, QB Will Proctor is completing 61.0% of his passes on the road for 7.5 yards per pass attempt and one interception per game. However, VTech's defense loves to make big plays as they average 1.2 interceptions per home game and 4.0 sacks per home game. Expect this to be a game where Proctor looks lost at times because VT's secondary is one of the best in the business.

The Virginia Tech Hokies were on National TV exactly two weeks ago tonight and believe me when I say that the players remember the embarassing loss to Boston College in Boston. Now here comes another chance for these kids to play on National TV, at home this time, and show the College Football world that this edition of the Hokies is just as much about business as last season's team. What people seems to forget is that Clemson is sitting pretty in the Atlantic Division of this Conference and losing a game won't be a huge deal. However, Virginia Tech is currently tied for first place with Miami and Georgia Tech which means that this is the game of their season for the time being. You cannot lose at home in Blacksburg with a game in Miami coming up next week. Beamer has made things quite clear for his team all week and he made sure that they know that their season is on the line tonight. In their last three meetings, Virginia Tech has won and covered all three games and the wins have come by a total combined score of 109-31. Beamer has always has a chip on his shoulder when it comes to playing against Clemson because it was the Tigers that made Beamer 0-1 as a Virginia Tech coach when he made his debut back in 1986 was it? The Hokies average 33.2 points per game at home this season on 382.4 total yards of offense and 6.2 yards per play. They are up against a Clemson defense allowing 23.7 points per game on the road on a respectable 248.3 total yards and 4.0 yards per play. On the ground, RB Brandon Ore is ready to rock and roll as the Hokies average 4.3 yards per carry at home but must deal with a tough Clemson defense that allows only 2.3 yards per carry on the road. I think Ore can find some holes but they won't come easy. In the air, the Hokies are going with a two QB gameplan. If Sean Glennon falters early and fails to get this offense going like he did against BC, Ike Whitaker's ass is coming in and taking over. The Hokies are passing for 8.4 yards per pass attempt at home this season and are up against a rather suspect Clemson secondary that allows road opponents to complete 63.4% of their passes for 6.1 yards per pass attempt away from home. Glennon has thrown only 0.8 interceptions per home game while Clemson's secondary lacks big play killer instinct and have picked off only one pass away from home all season. This is going to be VTech's best overall performance of the season as they shock Clemson at home...just the way Frank Beamer has envisioned it everytime these two teams play. The games just means too much to the Hokies.

Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 5-0 ATS the last five as a home underdog.


Virginia Tech 27, Clemson 10




:cheers:
 
GL Flava! need this one to bounce back from last week! hopefully Davis will not start tonight.
 
wheezy said:
GL Flava! need this one to bounce back from last week! hopefully Davis will not start tonight.


Thanks man...seeing you're from VA. What's the word on the Cavaliers Saturday? The line keeps changing. I'll take the Cavs as home dogs but now they are at -1. Any insight on the game? I mean NC State is playing for a Bowl bid while the Cavs are not.
 
Good stuff Flava, however, the Hokies are in 2nd place in the Coastal division and thus really need this win to stay in contention. I can certianly see this possible win as a huge boost for the Hokies and with Miami and Ga tech playing eachother, they will see one team ahead to chase.

I too am on the Hokies and think they have a legit shot to win at home - or at least keep it within a FG. Big play for me as well so GL to us!
 
MistaFlava said:
Thanks man...seeing you're from VA. What's the word on the Cavaliers Saturday? The line keeps changing. I'll take the Cavs as home dogs but now they are at -1. Any insight on the game? I mean NC State is playing for a Bowl bid while the Cavs are not.

totally agree with you here. im not touching this game at all. if anything, i would take UVA. cant go wrong with the home team here who shut out UNC last weekend. but then again, it depends on which NC state team will show. laying off this one.:drink:
 
Im taking Clemson here. V Tech is very bad and as soon as they get down they go to fighting on the sidelines. Seen it about three seperate times this year.
 
Damn! Now you have me thinking. Was leaning to Clemson until I read this damn post :hairout: !
 
abcs said:
You are ripping on the Tigers wins, but who has va tech beaten?
Only some of the biggest powehouses in NCAA Football!

Duke, UNC, Northeastern, Cincy and the always formidable Southern MISS!!!

god abcs, step your game up:smiley_acbe:
 
scourge said:
Only some of the biggest powehouses in NCAA Football!

Duke, UNC, Northeastern, Cincy and the always formidable Southern MISS!!!

god abcs, step your game up:smiley_acbe:
Amazing how good your defensive stats will look after playing those offenses ;)

Duke 118 in offense
UNC 108 in offense
Cincy 96 in offense
Southern Miss 79 in offense

Clemson = #1 in offense :shake:
 
Mista,

Is it all that suprising that once again we completely agree? For two guys who have never met or really spoken outside of a forum atmosphere most of the time we are walking down the same path. Somewhat strange IMO...

Can you say overreaction?? I love reading people say this line is to SMALL! I would love a detailed explanation into why this line is to small. With a big PUBLIC Thursday game going I read through more then a few threads at Covers.com to get a vibe for what they were saying. All long after I posted my VaTech play. All you see is this is to low...

How many people had Clemson versus Temple and GaTech?? Doubt very many. I myself played them 1st H vs Temple but like most of the free world faded them against GaTech. So if they are so easy and this line is so low then why didnt everyone play them this past week vs GaTech when it was omly -7 at home?? Maybe cause Clemson hadnt done anything impressive...4 crap schools at home, lost a tough game @ BC , pulled out a tough win @ FSU and struggled but won @ Wake..

Who have they played at home previously...Temple,LaTech , UNC, FAU. Great combination of some of the worst defenses and worst offenses in 1A football. They beat a solid but far from spectular GT team who was in the game @ 17-7 then fell aprt dfensively IMO cause there offense continually held the ball for 2 minutes and the gave it back to Clemson.

Who have they played away? BC , FSU , Wake...

Lets start with Wake could Clemson and Proctor been any sloppier? They trailed for 3 quarters and didnt score a TD to a WF fumble that cut it17-10. Now clearly Clemson is th ebetter team and what happens is the Oh Shit effect...where the dog gets nervous and cant make plays to regain momentum. In the end 24 4thq points led Clemosn to a 27-17 win. Proctor had 3 INTS. Davis had 95 yards on 26 carries. The star was Spiller with 9c 104 yards. Skinner not the most accurate of passers was 18 of 23 for169.

Then @ FSU and we all agre FSU is really DOWN this year. The game was tied 20-20 until Clemson scored a tD inside of 10 seconds remaining. FSU managed barely 200 yards of offense and was in this game all the way. So those so concerned about Glennon and the QB situation take notice. proctor again was lackluster @ 16 of 30 for 190...aqlso Clemson FUMBLED 3 times but managed not to lose any.

Early @ BC when I would say that BC wasnt the team they are today Clemson lost by 1 in OT as a 1pt fav. I remember many that day saying what did Clemson do to deserve being favored...I am still asking that question. That day BC was able to run the ball and proctor had his lone solid road game. However as I said BCs defene has stepped it up since then. They have fumbled 8 times on the road in 3 games but lost just two...an opportunistic defense like VT will take advantage in those situations.

Remember that when VT hosted GT it was w/o 2 suspended key players. So you cant look at that as a comparision game and vaTech wa s favored 8.5 instead of Clemsons -7...which in a perfect world meant worst case these teams were about equal... Also VaTech was -2.5 @ BC as compared to Clemsons -1....both times VAtech had a line 1.5 points stronger..

So while one will say VaTech is getting credit based on history rather then performance I would agree. Still Vatech continously shows up 1.5 points stronger then Clemson. In a game at VT it would mean VT was -5 or so. Now clearly I agree Clemson is playing well and Vatech is a question mark to a degree. How did a this line go from -5 to +5 in a matter of 2 weeks??

How did a Clemson team that was -1 @ BC , +4 @ FSU , and -14 @ WF get to -5 versus a VT team that is equal IMO to all of those programs at worst on there home field??????

ANSWER: OVERREACTION.......and the Betting Public is eating it up!

GL
 
The problem is VaTech isnt favored...so it doesnt matter who they beat. They dont have to cover road chalk....

My belief is a TRUE LINE should have been a PK....so this is way off IMHO
 
Sorry to disagree Flava, but emotion & intangibles won't get it done vs. the Tigers, a proven much better team according to the stats. Daivis is to play, he'll be spelled by Spiller when needed. VT is going to a 2 QB rotation tonite. Everthing spells doom and panic for VT. Clemson covers.

GL on your play though.
 
MistaFlava...Great write-up, but unfortunately we are on opposite sides tonight. I'm just not sold on Virginia Tech having the will to win a tough defensive game. They looked really bad against 1st half of Cinci, Georgia Tech and Boston College. If they get behind early, I think they fold like a cheap suit.

Good health tonight and hopefully we'll be on the same side on some games this weekend!!!!
 
SportsNut said:
The problem is VaTech isnt favored...so it doesnt matter who they beat. They dont have to cover road chalk....

My belief is a TRUE LINE should have been a PK....so this is way off IMHO


Hey man, im not complaining. Love being on the same side...doesn't always cash but it does more times than not.

You are 100% correct when you say the line should have been a Pk. Had it been a Pk or had VT been favored by 1 or 2, I wouldn't be touching this game. Good luck to us tonight!


:shake:
 
Oh absolutely no complaints about us agreeing...GL

BTW I am sure you dont read my blog BUT its pretty funny I was talking about playing ARIZONA last nite...so I'll be on that as well.

One more observation by me...Davis will probably play and he has to so with a less then 100% shoulder against another tough defense on a short week. Stuckey will probably play but like I said a broken foot is a broken foot...he wont be full speed either. There without FRY on the OL. truth be told whats been impressive about there defensive on the road? Ore will get his yards...

Bad spot on a short week
 
SportsNut said:
Oh absolutely no complaints about us agreeing...GL

BTW I am sure you dont read my blog BUT its pretty funny I was talking about playing ARIZONA last nite...so I'll be on that as well.

One more observation by me...Davis will probably play and he has to so with a less then 100% shoulder against another tough defense on a short week. Stuckey will probably play but like I said a broken foot is a broken foot...he wont be full speed either. There without FRY on the OL. truth be told whats been impressive about there defensive on the road? Ore will get his yards...

Bad spot on a short week


Wow...that's scary. We must think alike. How about the Browns...you game? Im on them big.
 
I have to admit with the Browns I first thought Jets as I did with New Orleans but with both I dug deeper and like Balt and Cle. With Cle they are always banged up but play well...close losses to NO , Balt at home...with Carthon now gone is that what the offense needed? Havent decided yet but thinking Cle at this point my hope was NY become favored then there would be no doubt...told bro its scary...
 
SportsNut said:
I have to admit with the Browns I first thought Jets as I did with New Orleans but with both I dug deeper and like Balt and Cle. With Cle they are always banged up but play well...close losses to NO , Balt at home...with Carthon now gone is that what the offense needed? Havent decided yet but thinking Cle at this point my hope was NY become favored then there would be no doubt...told bro its scary...


this is messed up dude. my NFL plays are ready to be locked in and I have ARZ, JAX, CLE and BAL. Too weird. Crazy.
 
I can say I am wavering on Jax. I would have already played Philly if Jags had not lost to Houston last week. Gimpy Leftwich or Garrard and extremely banged up defense....would love the chane to play it at -4.5 again but might play Philly -6 or -6.5...

We are both the same usual making our minds up before we speak about a game so it definetly is crazy. I always seem to open your thread and have similiar plays.....I guess the fact I mentioned Balt makes even weirder? Did you even post your NFL plays yet? If you did I didnt se them yet...

GL this week then. I might add some VaTech @ BoDog...+6...
 
SportsNut said:
I can say I am wavering on Jax. I would have already played Philly if Jags had not lost to Houston last week. Gimpy Leftwich or Garrard and extremely banged up defense....would love the chane to play it at -4.5 again but might play Philly -6 or -6.5...

We are both the same usual making our minds up before we speak about a game so it definetly is crazy. I always seem to open your thread and have similiar plays.....I guess the fact I mentioned Balt makes even weirder? Did you even post your NFL plays yet? If you did I didnt se them yet...

GL this week then. I might add some VaTech @ BoDog...+6...


Nope...I don't post or bet them until tomorrow or Saturday morning because my plays are not usually popular with public perception and waiting till Friday or Saturday almost always ensures a better line on the games I like.
 
MistaFlava said:
straight from the 7/11 baby!


speaking of 7/11 - did you see that the White Sox are starting all of there night games next season at 7:11 pm as a promotional thing with the convenient mart chain?

Looks like a nice call tonight as well.
 
I think its safe to say I hit VaTech , VaTech ML , Under 43 , under 24.5 Clemson and recomended Vatech +3 2nd H on my blog.......
 
SportsNut said:
I think its safe to say I hit VaTech , VaTech ML , Under 43 , under 24.5 Clemson and recomended Vatech +3 2nd H on my blog.......


On fire Nut...im doubling up next time we are on the same side.
 
MistaFlava said:
On fire Nut...im doubling up next time we are on the same side.

I played a bit @ BoDog +6 today...have to love SIA and BoDog for there inflatled lines...

Pissed I missed the MLB live wanted Over in the Cards game

I would have to say we are good....:shake:
 
nice call misterflava...should have taken your advise. i had clemson in this game but quickly recovered my losses in the second half by parlaying VT+1.5 under 22.5 (next time i'll be a bit more careful). Anyway i always enjoy your write ups, keep up the good work.
 
oh by the way i cant forget about you sportsnut, i really enjoy your blog and will continue to learn from imo one of the best in the business...gl this weekend
 
Excellent work. Looks like most of the forum won heavily on tonights game. Clem was such a big pub play I heard outta 2 locals...wow

Heres to a great weekend.
 
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