MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 62-64-5 (-260.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 60-62-4 (-254.10 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
This Week: 1-0 ATS (+10.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football thread. This has been by far my worst regular season in CFB which probably means I am heading for a GREAT BOWL SEASON. However, I am going to keep at it for the time being and hope to finish the last few weeks strong. I have confidence in my capping and my abilities to turn things around for the season. My goal now is to make it back to +0.00 Units for the season. You can get if you want but nobody asked you to follow. Good Luck!
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Thursday, November 15
Oregon Ducks -11 (25 Units)
The Oregon Ducks have one loss on the season and something tells me that the one loss is the only reason this team comes into games motivated week after week. They know they are a good team and they know they cannot afford to lose more than one game to stay in the hunt for the BCS Championship game. So their loss to California at home back on September 29 was a stinger. It was followed by a BYE WEEK where the players had a full two weeks to dwell on what had happened and come together to try and winout the rest of the season. Well the Ducks have never looked back since that loss going 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS in their games since the loss, winning each game by an average of 21.8 point per game against Washington State, Washington, USC and Arizona State. That's two of the top teams in the PAC-10 Conference and yet they never slowed down their pace. So another BYE WEEK has come and gone for the Ducks and the final stretch of three games is upon them. A lot of experts say that if they win all three and win the PAC 10, they are in the BCS Championship game. I say they need a bit of help for that to happen but nonetheless, this team is ready to go. Mike Bellotti has been head coach here for 13 years now and last year's home loss to Arizona (only home loss of the year) was the first time he loses to the Wildcats in his tenure as head coach. The Ducks come into this game averaging 42.8 points per game this season and they have done that on 510.6 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 6.6 yards per play in those games. They are going up against an Arizona defense that has allowed 27.8 points per game (which is respectable in the PAC 10 Conference) and allowed 365.9 total yards of offense per game on 5.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Ducks have one of the deadliest combinations as both QB Dennis Dixon and RB Johnathan Stewart have combined to rush for 1698 yards this season, 6.0 yards per carry and 18 rushing touchdowns. As a team they average 272.2 rushing yards per game this season on 5.7 yards per carry which is outstanding. Arizona has done a decent job against the run this season allowing 132.1 rushing yards per game on only 3.5 yards per carry but the best run attack they faced all year was the #32 ranked USC rushing attack. Oregon is ranked #5. So this is something the Wildcats have not yet seen. In the air, QB Dennis Dixon has been outstanding completing 67.8% of his passes this season for 2067 passing yards, 8.4 yards per pass attempt, 20 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on the season. Well I think the Arizona secondary is in trouble here because they have allowed opponents to complete 59.0% of thier passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The Ducks offensive line has been very good and Dixon has rarely been sacked this season. Arizona has 12 interceptions in 10 games this season but Dixon has been virtually mistake free all season and has only 3 interceptions to speak of. The biggest problem I have with the Ducks is that they have fumbled way too many times this season but I guess that's what comes when you play some good teams and when you run the ball almost 50 times per game. Either way, the Wildcats defense has recovered only 7 fumbles in 10 games this season and I don't think they stand a chance. Oregon is going to be firing on all cylinders once again tonight and this is not the kind of team that you hear all the hype about only to have them suck ass on National TV games like South Florida and other #2 teams have done this season. Oregon is above and beyond most teams in the Nation and tonight we find out why they are deserving of playing in that National Title game at the end of the year.
The Arizona Wildcats were standing pretty coming into this season. Having not been to a Bowl Game since the 1998 Holida Bowl against Nebraska, the Wildcats entered the year with a whopping 17 returning starters, it was Mike Stoops fourth year as head coach here and a lot of experts predicted that this team had a very good shot at making a Bowl Game for the first time in almost 10 years. Well with two games left on the season, Arizona is 4-6 on the year and it looks like once again they are going to be sitting on the sidelines while most of their PAC 10 foes are playing in Bowl Games around the Country. I don't know what went wrong with this team but I do know that losing to Stanford at home didn't help and playing poorly on the road (losing the opener 20-7 against BYU) sure as heck didn't help either. So now that the season is pretty much done with their last two games being against BCS teams (Oregon and Arizona State), I don't know how the Wildcats can be motivated to play. I mean sure they beat Oregon for the first time in who knows how many years last season but this is a much better Ducks team and they are coming in with much bigger and better intentions than Arizona. Mike Stoops is an impressive 7-4 ATS over the last three seasons as a home underdog in Arizona Stadium but this is the first time this season that his team plays that role. He is actually 3-1 ATS at home against TOP 5 ranked teams but I don't buy it. The Wildcats come into this game tonight averaging 28.5 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 398.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those games. Oregon's defense has allowed 22.0 points per game this season and in those games they have allowed 404.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play which is probably the result of scoring so many points themselves. On the ground, Arizona doesn't have a rushing attack to speak of as they average only 82.1 rushing yards per game this season on 3.0 yards per carry and the #112 rushing attack in the Country. Oregon has been really good against the run this season allowing only 134.7 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry in those games and now that the Wildcats don't pose much of a threat on the ground, the Ducks can concentrate on shutting down the passing game. In the air, QB Willie Tuitama is a good one and he has completed 64.1% of his passes this season for 3145 passing yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 24 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. Oregon's secondary is pretty damn good and opposing QB's have completed only 54.5% of their passes against them this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt which is not bad considering that most teams play from behind against them and have to throw 10+ yards passes on every down in the fourth quarter. However, as good as Tuitama has been, his offensive line sucks and they have allowed 26 sacks this season in 10 games which means they are in big trouble tonight against a Ducks defensive line that has 29 sacks in only nine games this season, averaging 3.2 sacks per game. It's not only the sacks that matter, it's the fact that the added pressure on Tuitama has forced him into making mistakes and it's tough to get away with mistakes against an Oregon defense that has 12 interceptions on the season and that has recoverd 9 fumbles. Arizona has fumbled the ball 23 times this season and they have lost 11 of those fumbles meaning I think we see the Ducks force a bunch of turnovers tonight. What this ultimately comes down to is Arizona's ability to put points on the board and keep this game close. We have all seen how fast Oregon can strike and although Arizona doesn't really need a running attack to get going in this one, I don't their passing game alone can keep them in this one. The offensive line is too weak and this very opportunistic Aliotti defense is going to be all over that and that should be the difference in this game.
How can you NOT bet on this? How can you not take a team who is probably three wins away from a very good chance at playing for the BCS Championship as a favorite of less than two touchdowns against an Arizona team that has a home loss against Stanford? It's like the crowd that wanted to fade Kansas on Saturday even though they have won and covered every damn game and spread this season. Oregon lost one game and they failed to cover the spread in only one game. You do not go against a team that is 8-1 ATS on the season, that is playing with revenge on their minds and that is playing on National TV which a chance to flash a bit of skin for the nice BCS Computers. The bottom line is that if you can't stop the run against the Ducks, you are not going to beat them or come close to beating them. Arizona has good numbers against the run but the best rushing attack they have faced all season was USC and the Trojans are ranked #32 in the Country in rushing yards per game. As mentioned earlier, Oregon is ranked #5. The number two teams have been getting killed in weeknight games this season but there is something about this Ducks team that makes me believe they are destined for big things. They are by far the best team in the PAC 10 Conference and for the first time this year, I think this is a #2 team that is going to show us why they are ranked that high. Stoops is a good home underdog coach and has a good record against TOP 5 teams...but this is Oregon's year to shine and they should kick ass tonight. Yeah it looks like a trap game but im not buying it, im buying me some Dixon and Stewart instead. QUACK QUACK QUACK!
Trend of the Game: Oregon is 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a BYE WEEK.
Oregon 43, Arizona 20
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 60-62-4 (-254.10 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
This Week: 1-0 ATS (+10.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football thread. This has been by far my worst regular season in CFB which probably means I am heading for a GREAT BOWL SEASON. However, I am going to keep at it for the time being and hope to finish the last few weeks strong. I have confidence in my capping and my abilities to turn things around for the season. My goal now is to make it back to +0.00 Units for the season. You can get if you want but nobody asked you to follow. Good Luck!
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Thursday, November 15
Oregon Ducks -11 (25 Units)
The Oregon Ducks have one loss on the season and something tells me that the one loss is the only reason this team comes into games motivated week after week. They know they are a good team and they know they cannot afford to lose more than one game to stay in the hunt for the BCS Championship game. So their loss to California at home back on September 29 was a stinger. It was followed by a BYE WEEK where the players had a full two weeks to dwell on what had happened and come together to try and winout the rest of the season. Well the Ducks have never looked back since that loss going 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS in their games since the loss, winning each game by an average of 21.8 point per game against Washington State, Washington, USC and Arizona State. That's two of the top teams in the PAC-10 Conference and yet they never slowed down their pace. So another BYE WEEK has come and gone for the Ducks and the final stretch of three games is upon them. A lot of experts say that if they win all three and win the PAC 10, they are in the BCS Championship game. I say they need a bit of help for that to happen but nonetheless, this team is ready to go. Mike Bellotti has been head coach here for 13 years now and last year's home loss to Arizona (only home loss of the year) was the first time he loses to the Wildcats in his tenure as head coach. The Ducks come into this game averaging 42.8 points per game this season and they have done that on 510.6 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 6.6 yards per play in those games. They are going up against an Arizona defense that has allowed 27.8 points per game (which is respectable in the PAC 10 Conference) and allowed 365.9 total yards of offense per game on 5.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Ducks have one of the deadliest combinations as both QB Dennis Dixon and RB Johnathan Stewart have combined to rush for 1698 yards this season, 6.0 yards per carry and 18 rushing touchdowns. As a team they average 272.2 rushing yards per game this season on 5.7 yards per carry which is outstanding. Arizona has done a decent job against the run this season allowing 132.1 rushing yards per game on only 3.5 yards per carry but the best run attack they faced all year was the #32 ranked USC rushing attack. Oregon is ranked #5. So this is something the Wildcats have not yet seen. In the air, QB Dennis Dixon has been outstanding completing 67.8% of his passes this season for 2067 passing yards, 8.4 yards per pass attempt, 20 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on the season. Well I think the Arizona secondary is in trouble here because they have allowed opponents to complete 59.0% of thier passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The Ducks offensive line has been very good and Dixon has rarely been sacked this season. Arizona has 12 interceptions in 10 games this season but Dixon has been virtually mistake free all season and has only 3 interceptions to speak of. The biggest problem I have with the Ducks is that they have fumbled way too many times this season but I guess that's what comes when you play some good teams and when you run the ball almost 50 times per game. Either way, the Wildcats defense has recovered only 7 fumbles in 10 games this season and I don't think they stand a chance. Oregon is going to be firing on all cylinders once again tonight and this is not the kind of team that you hear all the hype about only to have them suck ass on National TV games like South Florida and other #2 teams have done this season. Oregon is above and beyond most teams in the Nation and tonight we find out why they are deserving of playing in that National Title game at the end of the year.
The Arizona Wildcats were standing pretty coming into this season. Having not been to a Bowl Game since the 1998 Holida Bowl against Nebraska, the Wildcats entered the year with a whopping 17 returning starters, it was Mike Stoops fourth year as head coach here and a lot of experts predicted that this team had a very good shot at making a Bowl Game for the first time in almost 10 years. Well with two games left on the season, Arizona is 4-6 on the year and it looks like once again they are going to be sitting on the sidelines while most of their PAC 10 foes are playing in Bowl Games around the Country. I don't know what went wrong with this team but I do know that losing to Stanford at home didn't help and playing poorly on the road (losing the opener 20-7 against BYU) sure as heck didn't help either. So now that the season is pretty much done with their last two games being against BCS teams (Oregon and Arizona State), I don't know how the Wildcats can be motivated to play. I mean sure they beat Oregon for the first time in who knows how many years last season but this is a much better Ducks team and they are coming in with much bigger and better intentions than Arizona. Mike Stoops is an impressive 7-4 ATS over the last three seasons as a home underdog in Arizona Stadium but this is the first time this season that his team plays that role. He is actually 3-1 ATS at home against TOP 5 ranked teams but I don't buy it. The Wildcats come into this game tonight averaging 28.5 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 398.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those games. Oregon's defense has allowed 22.0 points per game this season and in those games they have allowed 404.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play which is probably the result of scoring so many points themselves. On the ground, Arizona doesn't have a rushing attack to speak of as they average only 82.1 rushing yards per game this season on 3.0 yards per carry and the #112 rushing attack in the Country. Oregon has been really good against the run this season allowing only 134.7 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry in those games and now that the Wildcats don't pose much of a threat on the ground, the Ducks can concentrate on shutting down the passing game. In the air, QB Willie Tuitama is a good one and he has completed 64.1% of his passes this season for 3145 passing yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 24 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. Oregon's secondary is pretty damn good and opposing QB's have completed only 54.5% of their passes against them this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt which is not bad considering that most teams play from behind against them and have to throw 10+ yards passes on every down in the fourth quarter. However, as good as Tuitama has been, his offensive line sucks and they have allowed 26 sacks this season in 10 games which means they are in big trouble tonight against a Ducks defensive line that has 29 sacks in only nine games this season, averaging 3.2 sacks per game. It's not only the sacks that matter, it's the fact that the added pressure on Tuitama has forced him into making mistakes and it's tough to get away with mistakes against an Oregon defense that has 12 interceptions on the season and that has recoverd 9 fumbles. Arizona has fumbled the ball 23 times this season and they have lost 11 of those fumbles meaning I think we see the Ducks force a bunch of turnovers tonight. What this ultimately comes down to is Arizona's ability to put points on the board and keep this game close. We have all seen how fast Oregon can strike and although Arizona doesn't really need a running attack to get going in this one, I don't their passing game alone can keep them in this one. The offensive line is too weak and this very opportunistic Aliotti defense is going to be all over that and that should be the difference in this game.
How can you NOT bet on this? How can you not take a team who is probably three wins away from a very good chance at playing for the BCS Championship as a favorite of less than two touchdowns against an Arizona team that has a home loss against Stanford? It's like the crowd that wanted to fade Kansas on Saturday even though they have won and covered every damn game and spread this season. Oregon lost one game and they failed to cover the spread in only one game. You do not go against a team that is 8-1 ATS on the season, that is playing with revenge on their minds and that is playing on National TV which a chance to flash a bit of skin for the nice BCS Computers. The bottom line is that if you can't stop the run against the Ducks, you are not going to beat them or come close to beating them. Arizona has good numbers against the run but the best rushing attack they have faced all season was USC and the Trojans are ranked #32 in the Country in rushing yards per game. As mentioned earlier, Oregon is ranked #5. The number two teams have been getting killed in weeknight games this season but there is something about this Ducks team that makes me believe they are destined for big things. They are by far the best team in the PAC 10 Conference and for the first time this year, I think this is a #2 team that is going to show us why they are ranked that high. Stoops is a good home underdog coach and has a good record against TOP 5 teams...but this is Oregon's year to shine and they should kick ass tonight. Yeah it looks like a trap game but im not buying it, im buying me some Dixon and Stewart instead. QUACK QUACK QUACK!
Trend of the Game: Oregon is 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a BYE WEEK.
Oregon 43, Arizona 20
