MistaFlava's CFB THURSDAY NIGHT ***Power Selection*** (Writeup & Analysis)

MistaFlava

Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 54-52-3 (-100.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 52-50-2 (-94.60 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)


Welcome to my College Football thread. I was up in units most of the season because I hit a lot of big plays but I have been missing my big plays the last few weeks and have not been capping well. This has been one of my worst College Football seasons in a long time so as you can imagine, I'm about ready to turn a new page and have a great week. I am going back to capping basics this wekk and we'll see how far it gets me in the end. Good Luck guys.

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Thursday, November 1


Virginia Tech Hokies +2.5 (25 Units)

The Virginia Tech Hokies were embarassed on National TV in Lane Stadium last week on a Thursday Night. I don't know that you can ever say that has happened in the past but the bottom line is that I was on Boston College huge and they scored two touchdowns in the final 2:00 to stun the hometown Hokies 14-10. As shocking as the loss and as pissed off and upset as this team has been most of the week, there is no time to dwell and the Hokies know that the ACC Title Game is most likely still an option with their 6-2 record on the year. There is no better way to get over a bad loss than come right back out onto that field like they are doing tonight. The Hokies have played three road games this season and looked pretty damn good in two of them. I know they were flustered and looked like trash against LSU but that was early in the season and the Hokies had not recovered from the emotional return to school after the tragic events of last April. In their following road game the Hokies dropped bombs on Clemson and beat the Tigers 41-23 on the road. Impressive. Despite being outyarded by 161 yards in the Clemson game, the defense found a way to win it for these guys. In their last road game Virginia Tech beat Duke 43-14 and outyarded them by 251 yards. Forget last year's game where the Hokies really shoulda won and look at the two years before that where Virginia Tech won the two games by a combined score of 89-34. I think we see some of the same in this game and I don't understand why people are doubting the Hokies after losing like that against one of the best teams in the Country. The Hokies come into this game averaging 31.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done that by averaging 309.7 total yards of offense in those games and 4.9 yards per play. Georgia Tech's defense is always going to be their strong point as they have allowed only 17.3 points per game in their last three games and have allowed only 277.3 total yards of offense per game on 4.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Brandon Ore has not had the kind of season we all thought he would and the Hokies average only 123.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for only 3.1 yards per carry. Georgia Tech is not about to let the Hokies get things going on the ground as they have allowed only 124.3 rushing yards per game in the last three games and 3.5 yards per carry in those games. So we move to the air. It's either going to be QB Sean Glennon or QB Tyrod Taylor. Regardless of who the game-time decision is in this one, they have combined to complete 62.3% of their passes the last three games for a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Now you can argue all you want that Georgia Tech is allowing their last three opposing QB's to complete only 47.6% of their passes because its true. However, in those games, the Yellow Jackets have allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt which is very bad news for them because airing the ball out is what Glennon and the Hokies like to do and they have had success throwing deep. Georgia Tech has 7 sacks in their last three games and the Hokies offensive line has been pretty bad all year allowing 9 sacks in their last three games but the QB's have not made many mistakes (only 1 interception in the last three games) and taking a sack or two here is not the end of the world. Virginia Tech has had all sorts of problems holding onto the ball as they have fumbled 9 times in their last three games and lost 3 of those fumbles but the Yellow Jackets defense doesn't seem all that aggressive and they have not been forcing turnovers like years past. They have actually recovered only one fumble the last three games so the Hokies can probably get away with it in this one. I really like the Hokies to come out strong in this game regardless of the starting QB status. WR and PR Eddie Royal is a gamebreaking player and this seems like the perfect matchup for him. Beamer Ball is back tonight in Atlanta.

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are probably going to be well rested coming into this game seeing how they have not played since their October 20 blowout win over Army and they have had quite a few days to prepare for this big game. The Yellow Jackets are currently 5-3 on the season so this is their biggest game to date and this is a great chance for this team to make a run for the ACC Championship Game coming up in about a month. They have Duke, North Carolina and Georgia remaining on their schedules and if they can win tonight and win two of those games as well, they will probably be in the driver's seat to take home the Coastal Division. However, before we even get out that far, lets take a look at what the Yellow Jackets have done at home. Take away their first home win over I-AA Samford because it was a complete joke and take a closer look at their first real home game against Boston College as a -6.5 home favorite where they lost 24-10. It's nice that they came out and shut the door on Clemson by a score of 13-3 in their next home game after that but the bottom line is that the Jackets are only 1-1-1 ATS at home this season and being a home underdog has not done much for them in the past. Coming into this game the Yellow Jackets were only 2-4 ATS as a home underdog the last three seasons (Clemson win this year being one of those two) and I don't trust them in this spot. Georgia Tech comes into this game averaging 25.7 points per game in their last three games and they also average 457.3 total yards of offense in those games on 5.9 yards per play. Wow thats impressive. However, Virginia Tech's defense is the real deal and they have allowed only 17.0 points per game in their last three games for 297.0 total yards of offense per game and only 4.0 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Georgia Tech is screwed. RB's Tashard Choice and Rashaun Grant are both out tonight and that means that 1095 rushing yards of offense this season and 8 rushing TD's are missing out on tonight's game. RB Jonathan Dwyer is very good and is playing tonight as Georgia Tech has averaged 243.7 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry in their last three games. Well not tonight boys. Virginia Tech is as stout as it gets on the ground and they have allowed only 37.3 rushing yards per game in their last three for only 1.5 yards per carry. STOUT BABY! That is going to force Georgia Tech to throw the ball. QB Taylor Bennett has completed 53.4% of his passes the last three games for 1 touchdown and 1 interception (he has only 2 touchdown passes all season and has started every single game). Virginia Tech is beatable in the air but Bennett is not the guy who is going to break this defense that has allowed their last three QB opponents to complete only 52.0% of their passes for only 5.3 yards per pass attempt. Bennett has been completing deep passes but that rarely works on this Hokies defense. I know I said Virginia Tech fumbles a lot but so does Georgia Tech who have fumbled 7 times the last three games and lost 3 of those fumbles. The Hokies can get away with that tonight but the Yellow Jackets can't as Virginia Tech has forced 7 fumbles the last three games and recovered 3 of those fumbles. They are as aggressive as it gets and have a pretty mean pass rush that has 9 sacks the last three games. I know Georgia Tech's offensive line has been great but you have to wonder how long Bennett takes before making mistakes in this one. The Hokies a grand total of 15 points in the first half of the last three games combined and I just don't see how Georgia Tech can point any points on the board in this game. The only hope to beat the Hokies is if you have a superstar passing attack (which both LSU and Boston College have). The Jackets don't have that and without a good running game are just another shitty team. I like the Hokies defense to have a big night in this one.

This is a revenge game for the Hokies and not only do they come in here with that on their minds, they come in here a little bit pissed off at last week's shocking loss to Boston College. What you have to understand guys is that Virginia Tech totally dominated last year's game at home against the Yellow Jackets but lost in the end. With 14 starters back from last year's team, the Hokies will no doubt be looking to play the same way as last year but this time come out with the 'W'. Here we go. Frank Beamer versus Chan Gailey. The Hokies have been the more disciplined team as of late as they have taken only 6.0 penalties per game in their last three games for 63.7 yards of penalties per game while Georgia Tech, who has had problems beating VT in the past, is taking a whopping 8.7 penalties per game in the last three games for 81.3 penalty yards per game. That could really impact the way things go tonight. If you have any concerns about this being a close game, please keep in mind that the three times these two teams have met as ACC opponents, the winner has won by an average margin of 23.0 points per win. If you look back at the 2004 and 2005 meetings between these teams (Hokies won both games by a combined score of 89-34), you will notice that my gamebreaker Eddie Royal played in those games. And also please don't forget that the only time GT beat VT as ACC opponents was last year but VT had 14 more first downs than GT, 28 more plays ran than GT and two 100+ yard WR's in that game. They dominated but lost. What it really comes down to tonight is the fact that Virginia Tech can score some points in this game, Georgia Tech probably can't. Frank Beamer owns Chain Gailey and none of that is about to change tonight.

Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games.


Virginia Tech 34, Georgia Tech 3




GOOD LUCK TO ALL!




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Nice analysis, I have definitely started to lean this way myself and towards the under(which your score would support). G Tech is 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS after bye weeks since Gailey has been coaching them. In those 8 games after bye weeks they have averaged all of 11 points per game.
 
Nice pick dude.

I don't always agree with you, but more often than not I do and either way I really like reading your analysis.

You know your stuff............
 
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