MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 34-27-2 (+155.90 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 32-24-2 (+161.80 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
Last 4 weeks: 25-15-2 ATS (+190.50 Units)
COLLEGE GAMEDAY PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 4-0 ATS (+130.00 Units)
Week 1: ---
Week 2: Louisiana State -11
Week 3: USC -9.5
Week 4: Georgia +3.5
Week 5: California +6.5
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference, well not yet anyways and every single week that goes by brings a new lesson in the world of college football betting. Best of luck to all this week!
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Thursday, October 4
South Carolina Gamecocks -4 (5 Units)
The Kentucky Wildcats have become everyone's favorite little team to bet on this season. Sure they deserve and I understand seeing how they are off to a 5-0 straight up start this season with a 4-0 ATS record in those games but I hope most of you realize that handicapping football games goes way beyond looking at what a team has done in the present season. The Wildcats have won all five games but who have they beat? They beat I-AA Eastern Kentucky on opening night, followed that up with a win against Kent State (#63 in the Country for points allowed), followed that up with a win against Louisville (#76 in the Country for points allowed), followed that up with a win over Arkansas (#80 in the Country for points allowed) and most recently beat Florida Atlantic (#95 in the Country for points allowed). So tonight they go up against the #16 team in the Country for points allowed per game and that is a HUGE jump in class for the Wildcats. It's a jump in class I doubt they can handle. Kentucky has lost seven straight games in the series against South Carolina so you know that they are not going to have as much confidence as usual coming into this game. Let's face it guys, their schedule has been vanilla at best and this is one tough ass place to play. The Wildcats come into this game averaging a whopping 46.6 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 492.2 total yards of offense per game on 6.7 yards per play but keep in mind who they have played against and how it easy it was. South Carolina is one badass defense with 10 returning starters that has allowed only 15.6 points per game this season on 307.6 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, Kentucky has found a lot of success running the ball as they average 223.6 rushing yards per game this season and a whopping 5.8 yards per carry. Now I know South Carolina has been pretty bad against the run and allowed 201.2 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry but their defensive line and their LB's are a lot better than they have shown and I think is going to be a bounce back game for them. Kentucky QB Andre' Woodson is one of the best quarterbacks in the Country and a very good Heisman Trophy candidate at this point in the season with his 67.1% pass completion rate and his 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 16 touchdowns and 1 interception. That's nice and all but South Carolina is not about to have any of it. The Gamecocks opponents have completed only 46.2% of their passes this season for only 4.0 yards per pass attempt which makes them the #1 team in the Country against the pass. They have 6 interceptions on the year and despite not having much of a pass rush, they are very good in short and long pass coverage. That should easily calm things down for Woodson and in turn slow down the running attack of the Wildcats. Kentucky has lost five fumbles already this season and in an SEC weekday road game like this one, turnovers like that are not going to help at all. Kentucky's offense is good but the team as a unit is not as good as people think and that is going to start showing in this game.
The South Carolina Gamecocks are led by one of my favorite coaches fo all-time...Steve Spurrier. The reason I love this guy is because you know he is never going to give up on a game and you know he is going to pullout all stops to make his team look good. Now I know South Carolina comes into this game with a 4-1 record on the year (3-1 ATS) but when you consider that they went on the road and beat a very good Georgia Bulldogs team and then lost to the #1 team in the Country LSU, you have to respect these guys a lot more than oddsmakers are doing in this game. Going back to Steve Spurrier, Kentucky is a team he has always dominated in his career going 14-0 against them lifetime and getting his 200th career win against them. As head coach of the Gamecocks, Spurrier has won twice against South Carolina, beating them by 7 on the road in 2006 and beating them by 28 at home in 2005. That's impressive. If you look at their one ATS on loss on the season, it came in their first game against Louisiana Lafayette but that was then and this is now and this team looks ready to compete in the big ones. The Gamecocks come into this game averaging 27.2 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 363.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play. Kentucky's defense has allowed 22.0 points per game this season and allowed 384.8 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play but this road game is going to be their biggest test yet. The Gamecocks have a decent rushing attack that averages 139.6 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry and you can expect both RBs Cory Boyd and Mike Davis to have pretty big games considering the Wildcats have allowed 5.0 yards per carry this season on 203.2 rushing yards per game. If the running game is effective early, expect South Carolina to drop bombs in the air. QB Chris Smelley has not looked all that good this season completing only 53.2% of his passes this season for 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. However, Smelley is starting to get comfortable and I think you have to remeber that he hit 34 of 53 passes in August scrimmages for 509 passing yards, 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Sure it's scrimmage but that's talent and he is still a freshman. I think he has his coming out party tonight against a Kentucky defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 52.8% of their passes this season for 5.7 yards per pass attempt. I really question South Carolina's offensive line but Smelley is much better at avoiding sacks than Blake Mitchell and the Wildcats have only 9 sacks in 5 games. As long as the RB duo on this team can spark them early, I think Steve Spurrier is going to open things up with Chris Smelley who has a very quick release which is definitely a plus againsty this Kentucky team. It won't come easy but the defense is going to spark the Gamecocks and the offense is going to have their chances to win this game in the fourth quarter.
My job here is not to teach how to properly handicap football games because everyone has a style of their own. However, I just want to say that almost every single college football game is about team style versus team style, in other words who matches up well against an another. In this case, South Carolina is the first team Kentucky has faced that matches up really well with them. I know I mentioned ealirer but it's worth mentioning again that Kentucky has yet to face a half decent defense this season. Their four I-A opponents are ranked #63, #76, #80 and #95 resepectively in the Country when it comes to points allowed per game while South Carolina's defense is stud and is ranked #16 in the Country in points allowed (#1 in passing yards allowed). Since 2001, South Carolina has won every single meeting between these two teams and won all of them by at least 4 points. The big question mark for a lot of people in this game is the status of the South Carolina passing attack. Trust me guys, QB Chris Smelley is more than capable of running this offense and with one of the best masterminds of all-time calling the shots, I don't doubt he is going to be fine in this one. I think South Carolina is just too tough at home and I think the turnovers they force late in this game are going to be the difference when it comes to the spread.
Trend of the Game: South Carolina is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as the favorite.
South Carolina 39, Kentucky 27
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 32-24-2 (+161.80 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
Last 4 weeks: 25-15-2 ATS (+190.50 Units)
COLLEGE GAMEDAY PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 4-0 ATS (+130.00 Units)
Week 1: ---
Week 2: Louisiana State -11
Week 3: USC -9.5
Week 4: Georgia +3.5
Week 5: California +6.5
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference, well not yet anyways and every single week that goes by brings a new lesson in the world of college football betting. Best of luck to all this week!
----------------------------------
Thursday, October 4
South Carolina Gamecocks -4 (5 Units)
The Kentucky Wildcats have become everyone's favorite little team to bet on this season. Sure they deserve and I understand seeing how they are off to a 5-0 straight up start this season with a 4-0 ATS record in those games but I hope most of you realize that handicapping football games goes way beyond looking at what a team has done in the present season. The Wildcats have won all five games but who have they beat? They beat I-AA Eastern Kentucky on opening night, followed that up with a win against Kent State (#63 in the Country for points allowed), followed that up with a win against Louisville (#76 in the Country for points allowed), followed that up with a win over Arkansas (#80 in the Country for points allowed) and most recently beat Florida Atlantic (#95 in the Country for points allowed). So tonight they go up against the #16 team in the Country for points allowed per game and that is a HUGE jump in class for the Wildcats. It's a jump in class I doubt they can handle. Kentucky has lost seven straight games in the series against South Carolina so you know that they are not going to have as much confidence as usual coming into this game. Let's face it guys, their schedule has been vanilla at best and this is one tough ass place to play. The Wildcats come into this game averaging a whopping 46.6 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 492.2 total yards of offense per game on 6.7 yards per play but keep in mind who they have played against and how it easy it was. South Carolina is one badass defense with 10 returning starters that has allowed only 15.6 points per game this season on 307.6 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, Kentucky has found a lot of success running the ball as they average 223.6 rushing yards per game this season and a whopping 5.8 yards per carry. Now I know South Carolina has been pretty bad against the run and allowed 201.2 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry but their defensive line and their LB's are a lot better than they have shown and I think is going to be a bounce back game for them. Kentucky QB Andre' Woodson is one of the best quarterbacks in the Country and a very good Heisman Trophy candidate at this point in the season with his 67.1% pass completion rate and his 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 16 touchdowns and 1 interception. That's nice and all but South Carolina is not about to have any of it. The Gamecocks opponents have completed only 46.2% of their passes this season for only 4.0 yards per pass attempt which makes them the #1 team in the Country against the pass. They have 6 interceptions on the year and despite not having much of a pass rush, they are very good in short and long pass coverage. That should easily calm things down for Woodson and in turn slow down the running attack of the Wildcats. Kentucky has lost five fumbles already this season and in an SEC weekday road game like this one, turnovers like that are not going to help at all. Kentucky's offense is good but the team as a unit is not as good as people think and that is going to start showing in this game.
The South Carolina Gamecocks are led by one of my favorite coaches fo all-time...Steve Spurrier. The reason I love this guy is because you know he is never going to give up on a game and you know he is going to pullout all stops to make his team look good. Now I know South Carolina comes into this game with a 4-1 record on the year (3-1 ATS) but when you consider that they went on the road and beat a very good Georgia Bulldogs team and then lost to the #1 team in the Country LSU, you have to respect these guys a lot more than oddsmakers are doing in this game. Going back to Steve Spurrier, Kentucky is a team he has always dominated in his career going 14-0 against them lifetime and getting his 200th career win against them. As head coach of the Gamecocks, Spurrier has won twice against South Carolina, beating them by 7 on the road in 2006 and beating them by 28 at home in 2005. That's impressive. If you look at their one ATS on loss on the season, it came in their first game against Louisiana Lafayette but that was then and this is now and this team looks ready to compete in the big ones. The Gamecocks come into this game averaging 27.2 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 363.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play. Kentucky's defense has allowed 22.0 points per game this season and allowed 384.8 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play but this road game is going to be their biggest test yet. The Gamecocks have a decent rushing attack that averages 139.6 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry and you can expect both RBs Cory Boyd and Mike Davis to have pretty big games considering the Wildcats have allowed 5.0 yards per carry this season on 203.2 rushing yards per game. If the running game is effective early, expect South Carolina to drop bombs in the air. QB Chris Smelley has not looked all that good this season completing only 53.2% of his passes this season for 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. However, Smelley is starting to get comfortable and I think you have to remeber that he hit 34 of 53 passes in August scrimmages for 509 passing yards, 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Sure it's scrimmage but that's talent and he is still a freshman. I think he has his coming out party tonight against a Kentucky defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 52.8% of their passes this season for 5.7 yards per pass attempt. I really question South Carolina's offensive line but Smelley is much better at avoiding sacks than Blake Mitchell and the Wildcats have only 9 sacks in 5 games. As long as the RB duo on this team can spark them early, I think Steve Spurrier is going to open things up with Chris Smelley who has a very quick release which is definitely a plus againsty this Kentucky team. It won't come easy but the defense is going to spark the Gamecocks and the offense is going to have their chances to win this game in the fourth quarter.
My job here is not to teach how to properly handicap football games because everyone has a style of their own. However, I just want to say that almost every single college football game is about team style versus team style, in other words who matches up well against an another. In this case, South Carolina is the first team Kentucky has faced that matches up really well with them. I know I mentioned ealirer but it's worth mentioning again that Kentucky has yet to face a half decent defense this season. Their four I-A opponents are ranked #63, #76, #80 and #95 resepectively in the Country when it comes to points allowed per game while South Carolina's defense is stud and is ranked #16 in the Country in points allowed (#1 in passing yards allowed). Since 2001, South Carolina has won every single meeting between these two teams and won all of them by at least 4 points. The big question mark for a lot of people in this game is the status of the South Carolina passing attack. Trust me guys, QB Chris Smelley is more than capable of running this offense and with one of the best masterminds of all-time calling the shots, I don't doubt he is going to be fine in this one. I think South Carolina is just too tough at home and I think the turnovers they force late in this game are going to be the difference when it comes to the spread.
Trend of the Game: South Carolina is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as the favorite.
South Carolina 39, Kentucky 27
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
