MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 27-21-2 (+74.40 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 25-19-2 (+74.80 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
Last 2 weeks: 19-10-2 ATS (+109.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference but new coaches did (Dantonio was impressive) and I would love to turn things around this week with the help of my new little friend. Anybody remember my PS2 simulations a while back? Almost time to bring them back for good. Yeah right! LOL!
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Thursday, September 27
Boise State Broncos -10.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MIDWEEK***
The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles have had two entire weeks off (well close enough) to prepare for this game. The Eagles are coming off a 28-21 road win over East Carolina as -1.5 point favorites but I find it hard to compare that game to this game considering that this is on National TV while that game was on farmer tv and this game is against a very tough home team while East Carolina's head coach has been wondering all year if they can win more than 2-3 games. The Eagles got their asses handed to them pretty bad the week before the Pirates game as they went to Tennessee and lost by 20 to the Vols. That now makes Southern Mississippi 0-5 ATS (this year and last year) as underdogs away from home and I don't see how they would walk into this place and do much better than they did against Tennessee this year, the 27 point loss at Florida last year, the 14 points loss at Tulsa last year, the 30 points loss at Virginia Tech last year or the 14 point loss at Houston last year...again all as road underdogs. What's even funnier about that is that this is their first game west of Texas since the 2003 season when they went to California so the territory is even more foreign, not to mention blue. Southern Miss comes into this game averaging 27.0 points per game on offense and they have done that by averaging 389.7 total yards of offense and 5.1 yards per play. Boise State's defense has done a pretty damn good job this season allowing only 15.0 points per game this season on only 249.7 total yards of offense and 3.9 yards per play. On the ground, the Eagles love to run the ball as they average 182.0 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry. The only problem with that is that Boise State's defensive line is pretty damn good and they have held opponents to 80.7 rushing yards per game and only 2.7 yards per carry. That should force the Eagles to throw the ball and in the air, QB Jeremy Young has completed only 53.3% of his passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Boise State's pass defense has 2 interceptions of their own on the season and have 6 sacks. They have also allowed opposing QB's to complete only 49.0% of their passes on the year for 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Sure looks to me like Southern Miss is going to have a tough time moving the ball tonight and if that happens, it won't take long for the Broncos to take this game and run with it. You also have to be concerned with the 5 fumbles lost on the year by Southern Miss because Boise State's defense is aggressive and has already forced 6 fumbles this season. Southern Miss doesn't belong in this game.
The Boise State Broncos were pretty pissed off after their loss in Washington because it broke their streak of 11 non-conference games without a loss. However, it was time to put that aside and focus on next weeks game which they did by beating Wyoming 24-14 at home as -12 points favorites on homecoming weekend. So the Broncos are now 0-2 ATS on the season and for a team that has gone 26-10 ATS as a home favorite the last seven seasons, I would like to think their fortunes are about to change in front on the National Audience. For those interested in taking the ML on Southern Miss in this one, I want to advise you that Boise State has won 13 of their last 14 against current Conference USA members. The Broncos haven't really faced much adversity this season and when they have they fell flat on their faces but that's expected early in the season when you are returning only 11 starters from a team that went to the BCS and that went 13-0 on the year. They too have a had a lot of time to prepare for this game and this game is going to start a string of three consecutive games for them on the SMURF TURF which has been a good spot for them in the past. The Broncos come into this game averaging 30.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 420.0 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. Southern Miss has a pretty damn good defense as they allowed less than 20 points per game in 2006 and return 8 starters on defense this season but they have allowed 24.3 points per game in their first three games and allowed 342.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play. Not too good. On the ground, RBs Ian Johnson and Jeremy Avery have led this team to 198.3 rushing yards per game this season and they have done it by averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Getting the running attack going is crucial in this game if things are going to work in the air as Southern Miss has allowed 120.7 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry so the Broncos have something to work with. In the air, QB Taylor Sharp is a senior and has done a very good job this season completing 60.4% of his passes for 651 passing yards, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Southern Miss is not as tough as many of you think against the pass as opponents have completed 59.8% of their passes against them this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The Eagles have managed only 2 interceptions and their only hope is that Boise State loses their cool and takes as many penalties as they did in their first three games but that's not happening. Boise State lacks experience but the homefield advantage, like it has been for many many years of blue skies and blue grass, will be just too much. Boise State gets their first ATS cover of the season and it won't take long to get out of hand.
Here we are again with a heavily backed public team as my choice on a weekday night. I was a bit skeptical about it last week with the Sooners but I won't make that mistake again this week. I don't care what the numbers say, in college football you have to go with the better team and Boise State is definitely the better team. Sure they lack the experience that Southern Miss does on defense but Southern Miss has been horrendous as a road underdog the last year or so and although they have a better team this time around, it won't be enough to do well so far away from home (farthest they have gone since 2003). Boise State has one of the best home ats records I have seen in a very long time and just ask anyone from Oregon State to Hawaii how tough it really is to come here and do well. We are talking about National Television here and I think the fact that Boise State has been at work for two weeks now means that they are going to showcase themselves big time in this one. In the end you have bad ATS road underdog versus a very good home ATS favorite and I don't think this game is going to be close.
Trend of the Game: Boise State is 26-10 ATS as a home favorite the last seven seasons.
Boise State 42, Southern Miss 14
GL to all! My Week 5 picks will be released sometime tomorrow.
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 25-19-2 (+74.80 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
Last 2 weeks: 19-10-2 ATS (+109.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference but new coaches did (Dantonio was impressive) and I would love to turn things around this week with the help of my new little friend. Anybody remember my PS2 simulations a while back? Almost time to bring them back for good. Yeah right! LOL!
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Thursday, September 27
Boise State Broncos -10.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MIDWEEK***
The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles have had two entire weeks off (well close enough) to prepare for this game. The Eagles are coming off a 28-21 road win over East Carolina as -1.5 point favorites but I find it hard to compare that game to this game considering that this is on National TV while that game was on farmer tv and this game is against a very tough home team while East Carolina's head coach has been wondering all year if they can win more than 2-3 games. The Eagles got their asses handed to them pretty bad the week before the Pirates game as they went to Tennessee and lost by 20 to the Vols. That now makes Southern Mississippi 0-5 ATS (this year and last year) as underdogs away from home and I don't see how they would walk into this place and do much better than they did against Tennessee this year, the 27 point loss at Florida last year, the 14 points loss at Tulsa last year, the 30 points loss at Virginia Tech last year or the 14 point loss at Houston last year...again all as road underdogs. What's even funnier about that is that this is their first game west of Texas since the 2003 season when they went to California so the territory is even more foreign, not to mention blue. Southern Miss comes into this game averaging 27.0 points per game on offense and they have done that by averaging 389.7 total yards of offense and 5.1 yards per play. Boise State's defense has done a pretty damn good job this season allowing only 15.0 points per game this season on only 249.7 total yards of offense and 3.9 yards per play. On the ground, the Eagles love to run the ball as they average 182.0 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry. The only problem with that is that Boise State's defensive line is pretty damn good and they have held opponents to 80.7 rushing yards per game and only 2.7 yards per carry. That should force the Eagles to throw the ball and in the air, QB Jeremy Young has completed only 53.3% of his passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Boise State's pass defense has 2 interceptions of their own on the season and have 6 sacks. They have also allowed opposing QB's to complete only 49.0% of their passes on the year for 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Sure looks to me like Southern Miss is going to have a tough time moving the ball tonight and if that happens, it won't take long for the Broncos to take this game and run with it. You also have to be concerned with the 5 fumbles lost on the year by Southern Miss because Boise State's defense is aggressive and has already forced 6 fumbles this season. Southern Miss doesn't belong in this game.
The Boise State Broncos were pretty pissed off after their loss in Washington because it broke their streak of 11 non-conference games without a loss. However, it was time to put that aside and focus on next weeks game which they did by beating Wyoming 24-14 at home as -12 points favorites on homecoming weekend. So the Broncos are now 0-2 ATS on the season and for a team that has gone 26-10 ATS as a home favorite the last seven seasons, I would like to think their fortunes are about to change in front on the National Audience. For those interested in taking the ML on Southern Miss in this one, I want to advise you that Boise State has won 13 of their last 14 against current Conference USA members. The Broncos haven't really faced much adversity this season and when they have they fell flat on their faces but that's expected early in the season when you are returning only 11 starters from a team that went to the BCS and that went 13-0 on the year. They too have a had a lot of time to prepare for this game and this game is going to start a string of three consecutive games for them on the SMURF TURF which has been a good spot for them in the past. The Broncos come into this game averaging 30.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 420.0 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. Southern Miss has a pretty damn good defense as they allowed less than 20 points per game in 2006 and return 8 starters on defense this season but they have allowed 24.3 points per game in their first three games and allowed 342.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play. Not too good. On the ground, RBs Ian Johnson and Jeremy Avery have led this team to 198.3 rushing yards per game this season and they have done it by averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Getting the running attack going is crucial in this game if things are going to work in the air as Southern Miss has allowed 120.7 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry so the Broncos have something to work with. In the air, QB Taylor Sharp is a senior and has done a very good job this season completing 60.4% of his passes for 651 passing yards, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Southern Miss is not as tough as many of you think against the pass as opponents have completed 59.8% of their passes against them this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The Eagles have managed only 2 interceptions and their only hope is that Boise State loses their cool and takes as many penalties as they did in their first three games but that's not happening. Boise State lacks experience but the homefield advantage, like it has been for many many years of blue skies and blue grass, will be just too much. Boise State gets their first ATS cover of the season and it won't take long to get out of hand.
Here we are again with a heavily backed public team as my choice on a weekday night. I was a bit skeptical about it last week with the Sooners but I won't make that mistake again this week. I don't care what the numbers say, in college football you have to go with the better team and Boise State is definitely the better team. Sure they lack the experience that Southern Miss does on defense but Southern Miss has been horrendous as a road underdog the last year or so and although they have a better team this time around, it won't be enough to do well so far away from home (farthest they have gone since 2003). Boise State has one of the best home ats records I have seen in a very long time and just ask anyone from Oregon State to Hawaii how tough it really is to come here and do well. We are talking about National Television here and I think the fact that Boise State has been at work for two weeks now means that they are going to showcase themselves big time in this one. In the end you have bad ATS road underdog versus a very good home ATS favorite and I don't think this game is going to be close.
Trend of the Game: Boise State is 26-10 ATS as a home favorite the last seven seasons.
Boise State 42, Southern Miss 14
GL to all! My Week 5 picks will be released sometime tomorrow.
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