MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 63-69-5 (-411.00 Units)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 61-67-4 (-405.10 Units)<o></o>
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)<o></o>
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
This Week: 1-0 ATS (+25.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football thread. This has been by far my worst regular season in CFB which probably means I am heading for a GREAT BOWL SEASON. However, I am going to keep at it for the time being and hope to finish the last few weeks strong. I have confidence in my capping and my abilities to turn things around for the season. My goal now is to make it back to +0.00 Units for the season. You can get if you want but nobody asked you to follow. Good Luck!<o></o>
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Friday, November 30
New Mexico State Aggies +13 (10 Units)
The Fresno State Bulldogs are on their way to a Bowl Game no matter what happens tonight so again you have to question their motivation for the entire four quarters. We saw it last night with Rutgers who came out very strong but couldn't sustain the pressure they had early so they sat back, were caught snoozing and ended up losing the game. I have to admit I was impressed by Fresno State last week in their 45-29 home win over Kansas State (an unmotivated Kansas State). The Bulldogs have been a good wager on the road almost all season as they went 3-2 straight up away from home but also went 4-1 ATS in those games and looked good in all games but their visit to Oregon. However my largest concern about betting on the Bulldogs is that out of their 5 road games this season, Pat Hill and his guys were outyarded in 4 of those games with their only yardage margin victory coming against Texas A&M and it was by 2 measly yards. Other than that they have been outyarded by a combined total of 521 yards in the other four games which has me thinking that its only a matter of time before that catches up to them. Fresno State has never lost a game in this series and they have won all 13 meetings by an average score margin of 25 points per game. However, I have a feeling this night could be very different for this team. The Bulldogs come into this game averaging 36.4 points per game this season on the road and they have done that by also averaging 401.6 points per road game on 5.9 yards per play in those games. We all know how weak New Mexico State's defense can be but they have been better at home and have allowed only 26.8 points per home game this season on 372.2 total yards of offense against and 6.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Fresno State has pounded away on opponents for 185.2 rushing yards per away game this season and they have done that on 4.4 yards per carry. That's going to be a problem for Nex Mexico State because they have been crushed on the ground and allowed 158.3 rushing yards per home game on 5.1 yards per carry this season. However, let it be known that RBs Ryan Matthews and Lonya Miller are both gametime decisions and both might miss out. They have combined for 1341 rushing yards, 5.4 yards per carry and 20 rushing touchdowns so as you can imagine losing one or both would be a huge blow. In the air, QB Tom Brandstater has played well on the road this season completing 64.6% of his passes for 8.3 yards per pass attempt and only 2 interceptions thrown all season. However he is up against a New Mexico State secondary that has done a decent job at home and allowed opposing QB's to complete only 54.0% of their passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The Aggies have a pretty good pass rush that has 14 sacks in six home games while Brandstater has been sacked 9 times in five road games. The Aggies need to win the turnover battle this season unlike last season and I think they are in a good position to do that as they have 6 interceptions at home this season and Fresno State cannot hold on to the ball if their lives depended on it having fumbled 14 times in five road games losing 8 of those fumbles. I know the Bulldogs style is to shooting things out with their opponents and try to outlast them but they could have a hard time doing that if one or both of their RBs are out in this game. Nex Mexico State has been half decent at home and I think the Aggies come up with some big plays in this game. The biggest concern is their run defense but as I mentioned before, they might not even have to worry about that in tonight's game with the injury concerns for Fresno State.
The New Mexico State Aggies have not had much to celebrate this season but they do have a lot to play for tonight, believe it or not. The Aggies came into this season as one of the teams that was supposed to pull off some upsets in this conference and one of those teams that shocked everyone by making it to a Bowl Game. That didn't happen unfortunately for them but they do have a chance to top last year's four win total and that should be the goal for head coach Hal Humme and his team as he has never won more than four games in any of his three seasons here. You also have to consider that New Mexico State lost two games by three points or less (lost by 1 against Louisiana Tech and lost by 2 against Nevada) so they are probably not as bad as their record indicates. The Aggies are 4-2 straight up at home this season and are 3-1 ATS in those games with their only ATS loss coming two weeks ago against Utah State (their worst game of the season by far). This is an Aggies team that outyarded most of their home opponents this season (UTEP by 202 and Utah State by 100 to name a few) but for some reason they have not been able to capitalize and turnovers, as always, have killed them. We all remember what happened last year in this meeting when Nex Mexico State blew a big lead late in the game and I don't think they have forgotten about that. Coming off a loss like the Utah State loss, I think the Aggies are going to be ready for this one. New Mexico State comes into this game averaging 30.7 points per game at home this season and they have done that by also averaging a whopping 468.8 total yards of offense and 6.6 yards per play in those games. Fresno State's defense has not been able to stop anyone on the road this season and I don't understand how they could be favored by this many points. The Bulldogs have allowed 40.2 points per road game this season and in those games have allowed 505.4 total yards of offense and 6.6 yards per play. OUCH! On the ground, the Aggies have not run the ball much this season (23.3 carries per home game) but when they have, it has worked as they average 110.5 rushing yards per home game on 4.7 yards per carry. Fresno State has been crushed for 249.8 rushing yards against per road game this season on 5.7 yards per carry and its time to let RB Tony Glynn (former CB) have a shot in this one as averages 5.6 yards per carry, has 4 rushing touchdowns but doesn't get the bulk of the carries. In the air, QB Chase Holbrook has been damn good as always and has completed 71.3% of his passes this season for 3543 passing yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 25 touchdown passes and 18 interceptions. He is going up against a Fresno State defense that has allowed road opponent QB's to complete 58.9% of their passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt. The Aggies have the #6 passing offense in the Country so I think it's safe to say that Fresno State is in trouble here. Despite the 18 interceptions he has thrown this season, Holbrook is lucky because Fresno State has 1 interception in five road games and they have not been making plays on opposing QBs. Sure the Bulldogs have forced 15 fumbles (recovering 7 of them) on the road this season but this is a New Mexico State team that has lost only 3 fumbles in six home games this season so I wouldn't be too concerned. I have yet to see anything from this Fresno State defense indicating that they can stop passing teams and even though their offense is pretty damn good, their defense just doesn't have what it takes to stop an Aggies offense that has scored 29+ points in four of six home games this season. Expect a shootout and expect this to be a Seniors Night to remember.
All you really need to know about this game is that we have another Rutgers-Louisville situation (well sorta) on our hands tonight. New Mexico State was beating Fresno State in the fourth quarter last year in Fresno but they turned the ball over four times which led to 17 points for Fresno and a 23-18 loss for the Aggies. Well this year they have 17 returning starters from that loss, they are at home, they are on National TV and this is Seniors Night. Fresno State is already Bowl eligibled with their 7 wins and winning the last game of the season has not meant anything to them the last two seasons (0-2 SU and ATS) so why should it mean anything here? Both Running Backs could be out for Fresno State tonight (combined for 1341 rushing yards, 5.4 yards per carry and 20 rushing touchdowns on the season) as they are both gametime decisions and that could really change things big time here. We all know this game is going to turn into some kind of shootout because neither team has shown that they can play consistent defense for more than a quarter at a time and both teams have offenses that score, score and score some more. I just have a good feeling about the Aggies going for their 5th win tonight which is a bit disappointing seeing how they wanted a Bowl Game but is also an accomplishment since none of these players were really around the last time this team won more than four games. I am calling for the Aggies to make some noise and keep this close if not win.
Trend of the Game: Fresno State is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games where favored by 10.5 or more.
New Mexico State 38, Fresno State 33
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fficeffice" /><o></o>MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 61-67-4 (-405.10 Units)<o
></o>MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)<o
></o>MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
This Week: 1-0 ATS (+25.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football thread. This has been by far my worst regular season in CFB which probably means I am heading for a GREAT BOWL SEASON. However, I am going to keep at it for the time being and hope to finish the last few weeks strong. I have confidence in my capping and my abilities to turn things around for the season. My goal now is to make it back to +0.00 Units for the season. You can get if you want but nobody asked you to follow. Good Luck!<o
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Friday, November 30
New Mexico State Aggies +13 (10 Units)
The Fresno State Bulldogs are on their way to a Bowl Game no matter what happens tonight so again you have to question their motivation for the entire four quarters. We saw it last night with Rutgers who came out very strong but couldn't sustain the pressure they had early so they sat back, were caught snoozing and ended up losing the game. I have to admit I was impressed by Fresno State last week in their 45-29 home win over Kansas State (an unmotivated Kansas State). The Bulldogs have been a good wager on the road almost all season as they went 3-2 straight up away from home but also went 4-1 ATS in those games and looked good in all games but their visit to Oregon. However my largest concern about betting on the Bulldogs is that out of their 5 road games this season, Pat Hill and his guys were outyarded in 4 of those games with their only yardage margin victory coming against Texas A&M and it was by 2 measly yards. Other than that they have been outyarded by a combined total of 521 yards in the other four games which has me thinking that its only a matter of time before that catches up to them. Fresno State has never lost a game in this series and they have won all 13 meetings by an average score margin of 25 points per game. However, I have a feeling this night could be very different for this team. The Bulldogs come into this game averaging 36.4 points per game this season on the road and they have done that by also averaging 401.6 points per road game on 5.9 yards per play in those games. We all know how weak New Mexico State's defense can be but they have been better at home and have allowed only 26.8 points per home game this season on 372.2 total yards of offense against and 6.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Fresno State has pounded away on opponents for 185.2 rushing yards per away game this season and they have done that on 4.4 yards per carry. That's going to be a problem for Nex Mexico State because they have been crushed on the ground and allowed 158.3 rushing yards per home game on 5.1 yards per carry this season. However, let it be known that RBs Ryan Matthews and Lonya Miller are both gametime decisions and both might miss out. They have combined for 1341 rushing yards, 5.4 yards per carry and 20 rushing touchdowns so as you can imagine losing one or both would be a huge blow. In the air, QB Tom Brandstater has played well on the road this season completing 64.6% of his passes for 8.3 yards per pass attempt and only 2 interceptions thrown all season. However he is up against a New Mexico State secondary that has done a decent job at home and allowed opposing QB's to complete only 54.0% of their passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The Aggies have a pretty good pass rush that has 14 sacks in six home games while Brandstater has been sacked 9 times in five road games. The Aggies need to win the turnover battle this season unlike last season and I think they are in a good position to do that as they have 6 interceptions at home this season and Fresno State cannot hold on to the ball if their lives depended on it having fumbled 14 times in five road games losing 8 of those fumbles. I know the Bulldogs style is to shooting things out with their opponents and try to outlast them but they could have a hard time doing that if one or both of their RBs are out in this game. Nex Mexico State has been half decent at home and I think the Aggies come up with some big plays in this game. The biggest concern is their run defense but as I mentioned before, they might not even have to worry about that in tonight's game with the injury concerns for Fresno State.
The New Mexico State Aggies have not had much to celebrate this season but they do have a lot to play for tonight, believe it or not. The Aggies came into this season as one of the teams that was supposed to pull off some upsets in this conference and one of those teams that shocked everyone by making it to a Bowl Game. That didn't happen unfortunately for them but they do have a chance to top last year's four win total and that should be the goal for head coach Hal Humme and his team as he has never won more than four games in any of his three seasons here. You also have to consider that New Mexico State lost two games by three points or less (lost by 1 against Louisiana Tech and lost by 2 against Nevada) so they are probably not as bad as their record indicates. The Aggies are 4-2 straight up at home this season and are 3-1 ATS in those games with their only ATS loss coming two weeks ago against Utah State (their worst game of the season by far). This is an Aggies team that outyarded most of their home opponents this season (UTEP by 202 and Utah State by 100 to name a few) but for some reason they have not been able to capitalize and turnovers, as always, have killed them. We all remember what happened last year in this meeting when Nex Mexico State blew a big lead late in the game and I don't think they have forgotten about that. Coming off a loss like the Utah State loss, I think the Aggies are going to be ready for this one. New Mexico State comes into this game averaging 30.7 points per game at home this season and they have done that by also averaging a whopping 468.8 total yards of offense and 6.6 yards per play in those games. Fresno State's defense has not been able to stop anyone on the road this season and I don't understand how they could be favored by this many points. The Bulldogs have allowed 40.2 points per road game this season and in those games have allowed 505.4 total yards of offense and 6.6 yards per play. OUCH! On the ground, the Aggies have not run the ball much this season (23.3 carries per home game) but when they have, it has worked as they average 110.5 rushing yards per home game on 4.7 yards per carry. Fresno State has been crushed for 249.8 rushing yards against per road game this season on 5.7 yards per carry and its time to let RB Tony Glynn (former CB) have a shot in this one as averages 5.6 yards per carry, has 4 rushing touchdowns but doesn't get the bulk of the carries. In the air, QB Chase Holbrook has been damn good as always and has completed 71.3% of his passes this season for 3543 passing yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 25 touchdown passes and 18 interceptions. He is going up against a Fresno State defense that has allowed road opponent QB's to complete 58.9% of their passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt. The Aggies have the #6 passing offense in the Country so I think it's safe to say that Fresno State is in trouble here. Despite the 18 interceptions he has thrown this season, Holbrook is lucky because Fresno State has 1 interception in five road games and they have not been making plays on opposing QBs. Sure the Bulldogs have forced 15 fumbles (recovering 7 of them) on the road this season but this is a New Mexico State team that has lost only 3 fumbles in six home games this season so I wouldn't be too concerned. I have yet to see anything from this Fresno State defense indicating that they can stop passing teams and even though their offense is pretty damn good, their defense just doesn't have what it takes to stop an Aggies offense that has scored 29+ points in four of six home games this season. Expect a shootout and expect this to be a Seniors Night to remember.
All you really need to know about this game is that we have another Rutgers-Louisville situation (well sorta) on our hands tonight. New Mexico State was beating Fresno State in the fourth quarter last year in Fresno but they turned the ball over four times which led to 17 points for Fresno and a 23-18 loss for the Aggies. Well this year they have 17 returning starters from that loss, they are at home, they are on National TV and this is Seniors Night. Fresno State is already Bowl eligibled with their 7 wins and winning the last game of the season has not meant anything to them the last two seasons (0-2 SU and ATS) so why should it mean anything here? Both Running Backs could be out for Fresno State tonight (combined for 1341 rushing yards, 5.4 yards per carry and 20 rushing touchdowns on the season) as they are both gametime decisions and that could really change things big time here. We all know this game is going to turn into some kind of shootout because neither team has shown that they can play consistent defense for more than a quarter at a time and both teams have offenses that score, score and score some more. I just have a good feeling about the Aggies going for their 5th win tonight which is a bit disappointing seeing how they wanted a Bowl Game but is also an accomplishment since none of these players were really around the last time this team won more than four games. I am calling for the Aggies to make some noise and keep this close if not win.
Trend of the Game: Fresno State is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games where favored by 10.5 or more.
New Mexico State 38, Fresno State 33
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