MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 35-27-2 (+160.90 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 33-24-2 (+166.80 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
Last 4 weeks: 26-15-2 ATS (+195.50 Units)
COLLEGE GAMEDAY PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 4-0 ATS (+130.00 Units)
Week 1: ---
Week 2: Louisiana State -11
Week 3: USC -9.5
Week 4: Georgia +3.5
Week 5: California +6.5
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference, well not yet anyways and every single week that goes by brings a new lesson in the world of college football betting. Best of luck to all this week!
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Friday, October 5
Louisville Cardinals -14 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MIDWEEK***
The Utah Utes have to travel to Big East country for this edition of Friday Night Lights and let me tell you that this is not a good thing. Utah is coming off their big homecoming weekend win over rivals Utah State and despite the big win and the big ATS cover in that game, the Utes have not shown that they can win, let alone compete, away from Salt Lake City. In their two road games this season, the Utes are 0-2 straight up and 0-2 ATS and they have been outscored a combined 51-7 in those two games. That was against Oregon State and most recently their shutout loss at UNLV. There has been all this talk about QB Brian Johnson and how he is the next Alex Smith around here but all these injuries this guy has had, has really hampered his chances of building a legacy. When Urban Meyer and Ron McBride were coaching this team, the Utes were known for their ability to win road games as underdogs (and cover the spread). In McBride's last three season here combined with Meyer's two seasons here, Utah went 7-1 ATS as road underdogs. Since taking over as head coach two years ago, Kyle Whittingham is only 2-3 ATS as a road underdog, already piling up more losses than both Meyer and McBride combined over a big stretch of time. It's clear in my mind at least that this Utah program is not what they used to be. The Utes come into this game averaging only 19.4 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging only 304.4 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play. Louisville's defense has been horrendous this season but if the doctor ordered anything it was for them to play against a few useless offenses like NC State last week and Utah this week. The Cardinals have actually not been as bad as people think as they have allowed 28.0 points per game and have allowed 417.0 total yards of offense per game on 6.4 yards per play. On the ground, Utah has not been able to get anything going as they average only 92.4 rushing yards per game this season on only 2.8 yards per carry. The Cardinals have had problems stopping the run this season as they have allowed 141.4 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. Seeing how they are facing such a weak running game tonight, they can concentrate on dropping back a lot more and taking away the pass attack. QB Brian Johnson really wants to win tonight but he is only 6-6 as a starter in his career. Johnson has completed 62.3% of his passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He is going up against a Cardinals defense that has not played well at all allowing opposing QB's to complete 61.9% of their passes this season for 8.2 yards per pass attempt. However, I think the Cardinals can get an effective pass rush going tonight as the Utes have allowed 2.4 sacks per game this season and seem to be slow off the line. I also really like the fact that Utah has fumbled 7 times this season and the Cardinals defense has managed to force 12 fumbles and recover 8 of them. The turnover problem is a big one for Utah and seeing how Louisville's defense is going to be hungry to make a statement on National TV, I see this game getting out of hand pretty damn early.
The Louisville Cardinals are embarassed by the way they have played this season but it's never too late to turn things around and I think Steve Kragthorpe has been pushing that message around all week. If you take a look at the other two games played at Papa John's on a weekday this seaosn, the Cardinals outscored their two opponents 131-52 (Middle Tennessee State and I-AA Murray State) which means they won those games by an average margin of 38.0 points per game. Sure Utah is probably much better than both those teams but I have not seen the Utes show anything this season that would make them worthy of shooting things out with the Cardinals. Middle Tennessee covered their large spread because they have an effective offense. Louisville is now 1-3 ATS on the season with their first ATS win coming last week against NC State on the road. That win was big because it gave the defense some confidence and it gave them some hope. Kragthorpe is also very familiar with that to expect from this Utah team seeing how he coached Tulsa last year and the Golden Hurricane lost to this Utah team 25-13. So believe me when I say that he is going to have his guys ready for what Utah has prepared. Louisville comes into this game averaging 45.8 points per game this season and they have done that on 595.4 total yards of offense and 7.4 yards per play. No matter what anyone says about this team, they are still one of the top and if not the top offense in the Nation. Utah's defense has allowed only 19.0 points per game this season on 349.6 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play but they have not faced a high powered offense like that of the Cardinals. On the ground, RB George Stripling is out again tonight but that doesn't matter because Anthony Allen, Brock Bolen and Sergio Spencer each have 10+ carries on the season and the three have combined for 811 rushing yards, they each average at least 5.9 yards per carry and have 10 combined touchdowns. As a team, Louisville is averaging 202.0 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry this season and I think they can demolish the Utes with their running game. Utah has allowed 198.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry and they most certainly dont' have an answer for those three ball carriers. In the air, QB Brian Brohm is probably the best in the Country and he has completed 66.7% of his passes for an incredible 1948 passing yards, 9.7 yards per pass attempt, 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Utah has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 51.1% of their passes this season for only 5.6 yards per pass attempt but they don't stand a chance in this game. Louisville rarely turns the ball over (they have lost only 4 fumbles this season and thrown only 4 interceptions) and they protect Brohm really well (4 sacks in five games). Whichever way Utah chooses to defend tonight, they are in big trouble because they just can't stop the running game nor can they stop the passing attack. Pick your poison Utes because the Cardinals are going to come out guns blazing for this game and unless you can match them TD for TD, you better just pack your bags.
There is no doubt in my mind that Louisville is about to get a whole lot better on the defensive side of things. How could they not? You can't get any worse than they have been so far this year so the only way to go for this defense is up and coming off a good performance last week, I think the Cardinals make a statement that they are not finished. Utah has shown that they can effectively run an offense for four quarters of a football game, nor have they shown that they can score more than 7 points on the road in any of their games. I mean how the hell is Utah gonna keep this game close if they can't dictate the pace of the game? Sure they would love to keep it lower scoring because it doesn't look like they have the kind of fire power capable of running with the Cards but in the end it won't be up to them and I think they are ultimately doomed in this game. This game kinda reminds me of of the Oklahoma-Tulsa game a few weeks back where the much better team had no problems trading points and eventually were too much for the opponent. Louisville is going to come out and make a statement on defense tonight and there is no way Utah is effective enough to keep up with this high powered offense. Prior to this season, the Cardinals were 24-14 ATS at home the last seven seasons. With them 0-2 ATS at home this year, it's about time the wakeup and knock the teeth off one of their opponents.
Trend of the Game: Louisville is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games.
Louisville 52, Utah 14
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 33-24-2 (+166.80 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
Last 4 weeks: 26-15-2 ATS (+195.50 Units)
COLLEGE GAMEDAY PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 4-0 ATS (+130.00 Units)
Week 1: ---
Week 2: Louisiana State -11
Week 3: USC -9.5
Week 4: Georgia +3.5
Week 5: California +6.5
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference, well not yet anyways and every single week that goes by brings a new lesson in the world of college football betting. Best of luck to all this week!
----------------------------------
Friday, October 5
Louisville Cardinals -14 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MIDWEEK***
The Utah Utes have to travel to Big East country for this edition of Friday Night Lights and let me tell you that this is not a good thing. Utah is coming off their big homecoming weekend win over rivals Utah State and despite the big win and the big ATS cover in that game, the Utes have not shown that they can win, let alone compete, away from Salt Lake City. In their two road games this season, the Utes are 0-2 straight up and 0-2 ATS and they have been outscored a combined 51-7 in those two games. That was against Oregon State and most recently their shutout loss at UNLV. There has been all this talk about QB Brian Johnson and how he is the next Alex Smith around here but all these injuries this guy has had, has really hampered his chances of building a legacy. When Urban Meyer and Ron McBride were coaching this team, the Utes were known for their ability to win road games as underdogs (and cover the spread). In McBride's last three season here combined with Meyer's two seasons here, Utah went 7-1 ATS as road underdogs. Since taking over as head coach two years ago, Kyle Whittingham is only 2-3 ATS as a road underdog, already piling up more losses than both Meyer and McBride combined over a big stretch of time. It's clear in my mind at least that this Utah program is not what they used to be. The Utes come into this game averaging only 19.4 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging only 304.4 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play. Louisville's defense has been horrendous this season but if the doctor ordered anything it was for them to play against a few useless offenses like NC State last week and Utah this week. The Cardinals have actually not been as bad as people think as they have allowed 28.0 points per game and have allowed 417.0 total yards of offense per game on 6.4 yards per play. On the ground, Utah has not been able to get anything going as they average only 92.4 rushing yards per game this season on only 2.8 yards per carry. The Cardinals have had problems stopping the run this season as they have allowed 141.4 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. Seeing how they are facing such a weak running game tonight, they can concentrate on dropping back a lot more and taking away the pass attack. QB Brian Johnson really wants to win tonight but he is only 6-6 as a starter in his career. Johnson has completed 62.3% of his passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He is going up against a Cardinals defense that has not played well at all allowing opposing QB's to complete 61.9% of their passes this season for 8.2 yards per pass attempt. However, I think the Cardinals can get an effective pass rush going tonight as the Utes have allowed 2.4 sacks per game this season and seem to be slow off the line. I also really like the fact that Utah has fumbled 7 times this season and the Cardinals defense has managed to force 12 fumbles and recover 8 of them. The turnover problem is a big one for Utah and seeing how Louisville's defense is going to be hungry to make a statement on National TV, I see this game getting out of hand pretty damn early.
The Louisville Cardinals are embarassed by the way they have played this season but it's never too late to turn things around and I think Steve Kragthorpe has been pushing that message around all week. If you take a look at the other two games played at Papa John's on a weekday this seaosn, the Cardinals outscored their two opponents 131-52 (Middle Tennessee State and I-AA Murray State) which means they won those games by an average margin of 38.0 points per game. Sure Utah is probably much better than both those teams but I have not seen the Utes show anything this season that would make them worthy of shooting things out with the Cardinals. Middle Tennessee covered their large spread because they have an effective offense. Louisville is now 1-3 ATS on the season with their first ATS win coming last week against NC State on the road. That win was big because it gave the defense some confidence and it gave them some hope. Kragthorpe is also very familiar with that to expect from this Utah team seeing how he coached Tulsa last year and the Golden Hurricane lost to this Utah team 25-13. So believe me when I say that he is going to have his guys ready for what Utah has prepared. Louisville comes into this game averaging 45.8 points per game this season and they have done that on 595.4 total yards of offense and 7.4 yards per play. No matter what anyone says about this team, they are still one of the top and if not the top offense in the Nation. Utah's defense has allowed only 19.0 points per game this season on 349.6 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play but they have not faced a high powered offense like that of the Cardinals. On the ground, RB George Stripling is out again tonight but that doesn't matter because Anthony Allen, Brock Bolen and Sergio Spencer each have 10+ carries on the season and the three have combined for 811 rushing yards, they each average at least 5.9 yards per carry and have 10 combined touchdowns. As a team, Louisville is averaging 202.0 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry this season and I think they can demolish the Utes with their running game. Utah has allowed 198.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry and they most certainly dont' have an answer for those three ball carriers. In the air, QB Brian Brohm is probably the best in the Country and he has completed 66.7% of his passes for an incredible 1948 passing yards, 9.7 yards per pass attempt, 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Utah has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 51.1% of their passes this season for only 5.6 yards per pass attempt but they don't stand a chance in this game. Louisville rarely turns the ball over (they have lost only 4 fumbles this season and thrown only 4 interceptions) and they protect Brohm really well (4 sacks in five games). Whichever way Utah chooses to defend tonight, they are in big trouble because they just can't stop the running game nor can they stop the passing attack. Pick your poison Utes because the Cardinals are going to come out guns blazing for this game and unless you can match them TD for TD, you better just pack your bags.
There is no doubt in my mind that Louisville is about to get a whole lot better on the defensive side of things. How could they not? You can't get any worse than they have been so far this year so the only way to go for this defense is up and coming off a good performance last week, I think the Cardinals make a statement that they are not finished. Utah has shown that they can effectively run an offense for four quarters of a football game, nor have they shown that they can score more than 7 points on the road in any of their games. I mean how the hell is Utah gonna keep this game close if they can't dictate the pace of the game? Sure they would love to keep it lower scoring because it doesn't look like they have the kind of fire power capable of running with the Cards but in the end it won't be up to them and I think they are ultimately doomed in this game. This game kinda reminds me of of the Oklahoma-Tulsa game a few weeks back where the much better team had no problems trading points and eventually were too much for the opponent. Louisville is going to come out and make a statement on defense tonight and there is no way Utah is effective enough to keep up with this high powered offense. Prior to this season, the Cardinals were 24-14 ATS at home the last seven seasons. With them 0-2 ATS at home this year, it's about time the wakeup and knock the teeth off one of their opponents.
Trend of the Game: Louisville is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games.
Louisville 52, Utah 14
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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