MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 NFL Playoffs Internet Posted Record: 5-3 (+79.00 Units)
2006 NFL Playoffs Internet ATS Record: 5-3 (+79.00 Units)
2006 NFL Regular Season Record: 58-44-6 (-311.80 Units)
*There are my plays. I post information for your use handicapping use only and not your wagering use. Tail if you wish, fade if you wish. You are all capable of making your own decisions.
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AFC Championship
New England Patriots +3 (100 Units)
The New England Patriots can only be described in one simple way...DYNASTY! I don't care what you say about this whether it be that they are always lucky or it be that they always have the refs on their side. At the end of the day, the Patriots know how to win football games when it counts most and they know how to do it in impressive fashion. Tom Brady has never lost a game as a starter indoors (in a Dome) and I don't think he is about to lose another one. You cannot argue with me when I say that there has never been a better playoff quarterback than Tom Brady. He is kind of like the UNDERTAKER in the WWE. The man from the darkside has never lost at Wrestlemania and as much as people think his streak is bound to come to and end, it just won't. Time and time again, the public and most square bettors decided that the Patriots are worth fading and that the Patriots are not as good as everyone thinks. Once again, this is the playoffs guys and you can't look at anything that was done in the regular season. Doubting this team is easy because of their losses to Indianapolis, Miami and the Jets this year. Even with their injuries and the guys they are constantly missing on a weekly basis, the Pats find a way to make it up and compensate for the injuries. Every player on this depth chart is well coached and knows what they have to do if they are brought into this game. The Patriots come into this game averaging 27.1 points per game on the road this season 347.0 total yards per game and 5.5 yards per play. Indianapolis has been playing oustanding defense all post-season but the Patriots are the most composed and complex offense they have seen yet. They are allowing 17.3 points per home game this season for 268.7 for 4.9 yards per play which is impressive at home. On the ground, the Patriots are averaging 127.3 rushing yards per road game on 4.3 yards per carry this season. As we all know, Indianapolis has plugged all their holes on the run defense since the playoffs started but who better to expose that than Bill Bellichik? The Colts allowed 4.9 yards per carry at home this year and something has to give. Herm Edwards is a dumbass and his game approach was bad. In the air, Tom Brady as I mentioned is 9-0 indoors in his career with a QB Rating of 105.8. He has completed 67.4% of his passes in those games for 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Indianapolis are allowing a 63.2% completion rate at home but for only 5.0 yards per pass attempt. That means Brady should have no problems completing his usual short passes and moving the chains, keeping the Colts offense off the field. The Patriots are converting 43.9% of 3rd downs away from home and scoring TD's 69.7% of the time in the Red Zone on the road. The Colts have had problems at home on special teams and Kevin Faulk has been outstanding all year when it comes to returning punts. I don't really care what anyone says, the Patriots are going to win this chess match of QB's and I repeat for the 10th time that going against Tom Brady on the spread and on the ML is pretty much as suicidal as it gets.
The Indianapolis Colts have been one of the teams I have went against the most this year and although I cashed in on a few occasions in the regular season, I am now 0-2 ATS betting against them in the playoffs. What can I say about that? Had it not been for them, I would be 5-1 in the playoffs and would not have had to bet a lot on this game. However, I studied a lot of stats and a lot of facts about the Colts this week and this matchup does not favor them. The regular season meeting was an easy win by Manning and the Colts and I strongly believe that the line should have come out Indianapolis -1 for this game as well as the regular season meeting. The Colts had huge defensive question marks coming into the playoffs but shockingly enough, they have allowed only one touchdown all post-season in two games and have been the reason this team is where they are right now. Manning and his offense have gone missing for the most part of the post-season and although I don't doubt they can score some points today, how many and when will be the big answer we are all looking for. The Colts already beat the Pats but what that does is give the New England coaching staff exactly the kind of film they wanted. All they have to do is check out that tape and work on what didn't work in the first meeting at home. The Colts come into this game averaging 28.9 points per game at home this season on 399.0 total yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. New England is allowing only 14.3 points per road game this season on only 291.6 total yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. However, that comes even with all the injuries they had this year. They are the best overall defense (3 deep on the depth chart) in the NFL. On the ground, we will no doubt see a lot of RB Joseph Addai but the Patriots are allowing only 93.7 rushing yards per road game this season and running Addai may not be the best idea regardless of his success this season. In the air, Manning had an outstanding year completing 65.0% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 31 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. However, the Patriots allowed only 54.7% of passes to be completed against them on the road for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. That would pretty much eliminate what Manning likes to do and that is move the ball on short and effective passes. The Patriots average 3.1 sacks per road game and if anyone can get to Manning and force into bad decisions, it's this defense and their schemes. The Colts are up against a defense that allowd only 33.3% of 3rd downs to be converted against them on the road this year and who intercepted one pass per game away from home. Getting pressure on Manning and shutting down his momentum is something the Patriots have always done and something they can surely this time around. I know it's frustrating for Manning, but he won't reach the Super Bowl until someone can burry the Pats before he faces them.
We are all smart bettors. Why in the world would you bet on Indianapolis? In my opinion, if you have any sense of the betting world, you are either on New England in this game or you are not touching it. It makes absolutely no sense to take Indianapolis in this spot regardless of what you think. The public is pretty much divided on this game and that makes sense because both teams are the best there is in the NFL. How easy would it be to look back at their last meeting and see how Indianapolis killed the Pats on the road ealier this year and figure 'Hey, they are at home now, should be a bigger blowout'? Big mistakes guys. The line is set perfectly for most square bettors who are going to overthink this thing and think Vegas is trying to trap New England bettors. You just can't go against Tom Brady and Billy B whether you like it or not. This game will be decided by 1 or 2 points. Brady is 12-1 in the playoffs and 9-0 in Domes which would make that 20-1 in situations like this one. Revenge time! How the hell does a smart bettor or anyone with half a brain go with Indy here? Cmon guys!
Trend of the Game: Tom Brady is 12-1 in his NFL Playoff career.
New England 28, Indianapolis 24
:cheers:
2006 NFL Playoffs Internet ATS Record: 5-3 (+79.00 Units)
2006 NFL Regular Season Record: 58-44-6 (-311.80 Units)
*There are my plays. I post information for your use handicapping use only and not your wagering use. Tail if you wish, fade if you wish. You are all capable of making your own decisions.
-----------------------------------------------
AFC Championship
New England Patriots +3 (100 Units)
The New England Patriots can only be described in one simple way...DYNASTY! I don't care what you say about this whether it be that they are always lucky or it be that they always have the refs on their side. At the end of the day, the Patriots know how to win football games when it counts most and they know how to do it in impressive fashion. Tom Brady has never lost a game as a starter indoors (in a Dome) and I don't think he is about to lose another one. You cannot argue with me when I say that there has never been a better playoff quarterback than Tom Brady. He is kind of like the UNDERTAKER in the WWE. The man from the darkside has never lost at Wrestlemania and as much as people think his streak is bound to come to and end, it just won't. Time and time again, the public and most square bettors decided that the Patriots are worth fading and that the Patriots are not as good as everyone thinks. Once again, this is the playoffs guys and you can't look at anything that was done in the regular season. Doubting this team is easy because of their losses to Indianapolis, Miami and the Jets this year. Even with their injuries and the guys they are constantly missing on a weekly basis, the Pats find a way to make it up and compensate for the injuries. Every player on this depth chart is well coached and knows what they have to do if they are brought into this game. The Patriots come into this game averaging 27.1 points per game on the road this season 347.0 total yards per game and 5.5 yards per play. Indianapolis has been playing oustanding defense all post-season but the Patriots are the most composed and complex offense they have seen yet. They are allowing 17.3 points per home game this season for 268.7 for 4.9 yards per play which is impressive at home. On the ground, the Patriots are averaging 127.3 rushing yards per road game on 4.3 yards per carry this season. As we all know, Indianapolis has plugged all their holes on the run defense since the playoffs started but who better to expose that than Bill Bellichik? The Colts allowed 4.9 yards per carry at home this year and something has to give. Herm Edwards is a dumbass and his game approach was bad. In the air, Tom Brady as I mentioned is 9-0 indoors in his career with a QB Rating of 105.8. He has completed 67.4% of his passes in those games for 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Indianapolis are allowing a 63.2% completion rate at home but for only 5.0 yards per pass attempt. That means Brady should have no problems completing his usual short passes and moving the chains, keeping the Colts offense off the field. The Patriots are converting 43.9% of 3rd downs away from home and scoring TD's 69.7% of the time in the Red Zone on the road. The Colts have had problems at home on special teams and Kevin Faulk has been outstanding all year when it comes to returning punts. I don't really care what anyone says, the Patriots are going to win this chess match of QB's and I repeat for the 10th time that going against Tom Brady on the spread and on the ML is pretty much as suicidal as it gets.
The Indianapolis Colts have been one of the teams I have went against the most this year and although I cashed in on a few occasions in the regular season, I am now 0-2 ATS betting against them in the playoffs. What can I say about that? Had it not been for them, I would be 5-1 in the playoffs and would not have had to bet a lot on this game. However, I studied a lot of stats and a lot of facts about the Colts this week and this matchup does not favor them. The regular season meeting was an easy win by Manning and the Colts and I strongly believe that the line should have come out Indianapolis -1 for this game as well as the regular season meeting. The Colts had huge defensive question marks coming into the playoffs but shockingly enough, they have allowed only one touchdown all post-season in two games and have been the reason this team is where they are right now. Manning and his offense have gone missing for the most part of the post-season and although I don't doubt they can score some points today, how many and when will be the big answer we are all looking for. The Colts already beat the Pats but what that does is give the New England coaching staff exactly the kind of film they wanted. All they have to do is check out that tape and work on what didn't work in the first meeting at home. The Colts come into this game averaging 28.9 points per game at home this season on 399.0 total yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. New England is allowing only 14.3 points per road game this season on only 291.6 total yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. However, that comes even with all the injuries they had this year. They are the best overall defense (3 deep on the depth chart) in the NFL. On the ground, we will no doubt see a lot of RB Joseph Addai but the Patriots are allowing only 93.7 rushing yards per road game this season and running Addai may not be the best idea regardless of his success this season. In the air, Manning had an outstanding year completing 65.0% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 31 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. However, the Patriots allowed only 54.7% of passes to be completed against them on the road for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. That would pretty much eliminate what Manning likes to do and that is move the ball on short and effective passes. The Patriots average 3.1 sacks per road game and if anyone can get to Manning and force into bad decisions, it's this defense and their schemes. The Colts are up against a defense that allowd only 33.3% of 3rd downs to be converted against them on the road this year and who intercepted one pass per game away from home. Getting pressure on Manning and shutting down his momentum is something the Patriots have always done and something they can surely this time around. I know it's frustrating for Manning, but he won't reach the Super Bowl until someone can burry the Pats before he faces them.
We are all smart bettors. Why in the world would you bet on Indianapolis? In my opinion, if you have any sense of the betting world, you are either on New England in this game or you are not touching it. It makes absolutely no sense to take Indianapolis in this spot regardless of what you think. The public is pretty much divided on this game and that makes sense because both teams are the best there is in the NFL. How easy would it be to look back at their last meeting and see how Indianapolis killed the Pats on the road ealier this year and figure 'Hey, they are at home now, should be a bigger blowout'? Big mistakes guys. The line is set perfectly for most square bettors who are going to overthink this thing and think Vegas is trying to trap New England bettors. You just can't go against Tom Brady and Billy B whether you like it or not. This game will be decided by 1 or 2 points. Brady is 12-1 in the playoffs and 9-0 in Domes which would make that 20-1 in situations like this one. Revenge time! How the hell does a smart bettor or anyone with half a brain go with Indy here? Cmon guys!
Trend of the Game: Tom Brady is 12-1 in his NFL Playoff career.
New England 28, Indianapolis 24
:cheers:
