MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 30-20-3 (+244.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 30-20-3 (+244.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week in NFL: 0-1 ATS (-27.50 Units)
This Week in CFB: 6-1 ATS (+152.50 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Sunday, December 2
Buffalo Bills +6 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Buffalo Bills are ready, Trent Edwards is ready and all the Bills really have to worry about in this one is surviving the initial Washington emtional storm and I think they are gonna be okay. As sad as I have been all week (I will keep my Sean Taylor avatar up until after this game), it is time to move on and concentrate on what we love doing and that is making some damn cash. I know my Bills like the back of my hand and I love the spot they are in right here. Sure it was tough for the Bills to practice this week much like it was tough for a bunch of teams to practice but let me first start by saying that QB Trent Edwards is FINALLY back in the driver's seat and for those of you who didn't know, Edwards is 3-1 this season as a starter as opposed to JP Losman who is 2-5. It's a no brainer regardless of stats because Edwards looks a lot more composed out there, doesn't take as many sacks, dinks and dunks a lot more than Losman which is perfect for this style of offense and just has more of an NFL brain than JP Losman. He is 3-1 with his only loss being the heartbreaker on Monday Night against the Cowboys. Buffalo is only 1-3-1 ATS away from home this season but Trent Edwards is 1-0 SU and 1-0 ATS away from home and JP Losman was the starter for most of the Bills away games. I would like to point out that the only game Edwards started on the road was the only game the Bills managed to outyard their opponents away from home. Buffalo comes into this game averaging 15.2 points per game this season and in those games they have managed only 267.4 total yards of total offenser per game on 4.7 yards per play which is pretty damn weak. Washington has been so-so defensively as they have allowed 20.8 points per game this season and in those games have allowed 310.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, there is no Marshawn Lynch so in comes RB Fred Jackson who has only carried the ball 9 times this season for 38 yards but who at one point led the NFL Pre-Season in rushing yards and who has looked good in practice. He is going up against a Washington defense that has allowed only 97.3 rushing yards per game this season but they have allowed 3.8 yards per carry so there is hope afterall. In the ait, QB Trend Edwards' numbers are not that staggering but again winning is all that matters and Trent gets its done almost every time he plays. He has completed 66.1% of his passes this season for 790 passing yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 5 interceptions (4 as a starter). The Redskins secondary will greatly miss Sean Taylor as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 61.7% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt which should give Edwards a good chance to move the ball. The Redskins have an aggressive pass rush but again Edwards is very quick on his reads and his release and won't have the problems JP Losman had. Some of the Buffalo receivers like Lee Evans preferred JP Losman as the starter because the throws the deep ball but the coaching staff has not let Trend Edwards open up his game yet and for the first time all season, we might see them let him take shots deep to Evans to make that connection between receiver and quarterback. Despite playing well defensively the Redskins have not been making big plays needed to win ball games as they have 9 interceptions on the season and have recovered only 7 fumbles. Buffalo on the other hand has lost only 4 fumbles all season so don't count on them turning the ball over in this game. Despite playing against tough teams, the Bills have been good on third downs converting 37.6% of the time this season and Washington hasn't really been all that special at stopping their opponents. The Redzone offense has been pretty damn bad for the Bills this season but if they can get there early in this game, Washington has allowed opponents to score touchdowns from inside the Redzone 55.9% of the time this season and Edwards should feel a lot more comfortable now that he is making his fifth NFL start. All in all, the Bills running game has been mediocre most of the season (Marshawn is awesome though) so Fred Jackson should do a fine job. I love Trent Edwards as the leader of this team and like the great-late Bill Walsh told Marv Levy sometime before he passed away, drafting this kid Edwards out of Stanford could be the best thing you ever do in your GM career. Today you guys will find out why.
The Washington Redskins and the Redskins Nation are in mourning right now and you can bet your bottom dollar the start of this game is going to be as emotional as it gets. It hasn't even been a week since the death of Sean Taylor and you can only imagine what the guys on this team have been going through all week. As much as they are dedicating this game to Sean and as much as the guys win for him, practice and good practice is so important in the NFL because preparing properly for a game is so complex. I know for a fact that this team did not practice properly all week, a lot of the guys had their heads elsewhere and even though the Sean Taylor murder culprits have been found, the mood on the team is the same. Yes they are doing this for Sean today but it's not going to be easy footbal wise. The Redskins have lost three games in a row and four of their last five and it's no coincidence that some of those games lost, they allowed their highest point totals of the season without Sean Taylor in the lineup. Washington is only 3-2 straight up at home this season but they are also 1-3-1 ATS in those games with their only spread cover coming against Detroit back in early October. Other than that they have been favored in all their home games and failed to cover the other four games. So now you make them -6 for what reason exactly? I am having trouble understanding where that came from and I am not biting on the emotional factor like so many of you already have. The Redskins come into this game averaging 19.4 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 334.4 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play in those games which is better than Buffalo but not by much. The Bills defense has done pretty damn well considering having to play New England twice, Dallas once and other teams like Cincinnati and Pittsrbugh as they have allowed only 23.5 points per game this season and in those games have allowed only 378.4 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Clinton Portis has been limited all week in practice and the team is averaging 124.6 rushing yards per game this season on 4.0 yards per carry. Buffalo's weakness has been the run defense but they have not been that bad allowing 119.7 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry. In the air, QB Jason Campbell has completed 60.2% of his passes this season for 2384 passing yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 12 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Not exactly impressive. Buffalo's secondary has allowed opposing QB's to complete 65.3% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt so the opportunities will be there for Washington but the Bills have done considerably well against QB's not named Brady, Roethlisberger and Garrard. Campbell does make a lot of bad decisions and that could him in this one as the Bills have 12 interceptions on the season. You also have to be very concerned with the fact that Washington has fumbled 2.5 times per game this season (28 fumbles on the year) and the fact that they have lost 14 of those fumbles. I say that because they are coming off a bad week of practice and the Bills have forced at least 1.1 fumbles per game this season and one fumble is all it takes to change a game. Washington has been so-so on third downs this season converting 40.0% of their chances and they could have an edge here because Buffalo's achilles heel has been third down defense and getting off the field. However, the Bills have been winning games on special teams and on defensive plays and I think they defense and the special teams are going to have several chances to make big plays in this game. Washington has taken 1.1 more penalties per game this season than the Bills which has cost them 14.5 more penatly yards per game than the Bills. Washington can be effective at times on offense and I do think they can score some points but the Bills defense played inspired in every single game started by Trent Edwards this season and today should be no different.
Yes tragedy struck this past week and yes the death of Sean Taylor hit all of us pretty hard. We mourned for a few days, we moved on but we will never forget Sean Taylor and that goes for everyone playing in this game today. I was going to leave this game alone but you guys know how I feel about my Buffalo Bills as I am a perfect 6-0 ATS betting on them this season (win or lose). You can be concerned about injuries all you want but the bottom line is that this team has been injury plagued all season with that they call 'devastating' injuries and the fact that RB Marshawn Lynch is out won't make a difference. It is very hard to tell if the Washignton Redskins are going to come out inspired (we know at first they will) or if they are going to come out dejected and/or uninterested. Regardless, this is way too many points (tragedy or no tragedy) and with the style of play that Trent Edwards brings to this team (dink and dunk, hit the checkdown on every play), that usually keeps opposing teams off-balance and it keeps the chains moving for the Bills. Once again. This Bills team is now 5-6 on the season and this is a must win for the playoff race. Trent Edwards is 3-1 as a starter, JP Losman was 2-5 as a starter. That's all you really need to know about which Bills team is showing up in this game. I think taking Washington is as square as it gets this week because they are not well prepared, this is still a race for the Wildcard and emotions are going to run high which doesn't automatically mean a win. The people betting Washigton here and the same people who bet on the Miami Hurricanes playing their last game in the Orange Bowl. R.I.P. Sean Taylor and thanks for the memories (the hit on Moorman in the PRO BOWL was my favorite of all-time).
Trend of the Game: Washington is 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.
Buffalo 23, Washington 20
Tennessee Titans -3.5 (10 Units)
The Houston Texans at times this season have looked pretty damn good but at times they have also looked like crap and last week's game in Cleveland was one of those times. A lot of people were surprised that the couldn't do better in that game considering that the Browns have been playing in way over their heads this season and considering that the team was coming off wins over New Orleans and Oakland. Yikes...I didn't realize it until writing that but beating the Raiders and Saints doesn't mean jack this season seeing how both teams are horrendous. On top of those wins Houston also has wins over Miami, Carolina and Kansas City. That list is probably the most pathetic list of teams I have ever seen and had the Texans not had the pleasure of playing against so many bad teams, who knows what their record would be right now. It's not that I don't think they haven't played well this season because they have outyarded several of their opponents but when playing against teams with winnnig records this season the team has gone 1-4 ATS and have looked as pathetic as it gets. The Texans are only 2-4 ATS away from home this season and again I just don't trust them against teams that are still running and gunning for a playoff spot. The Texans come into this game averaging 19.7 points per game on the road this season and they have done that on 362.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games which is not all that bad. However, Tennessee's defense at home is as good as it gets in the NFL and the Titans have allowed only 15.8 points per home game this season and in those games have allowed only 253.4 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Ron Dayne has not been all that special and the Texans have managed only 106.2 rushing yards per away game this season on 3.8 yards per carry. That is most certainly not effective enough to beat the Titans who have allowed only 103.2 rushing yards per home game this season for only 3.8 yards per carry and seeing how I think Houston plays from behind for the most part of this game, I don't like Dayne to do anything at all. In the air, QB Matt Schaub has played well completing 66.5% of his passes on the season for 2207 passing yards, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. As impressive as his ability to make big plays has been, Tennessee has allowed visiting road teams to complete only 54.9% of their passes this season for only 4.5 yards per pass attempt and I think this secondary is primed for another big performance at home. Houston's offensive line has been good in terms of protection but the Titans have 17 sacks in five home games this season. Schaub is not a good decision maker most of the time and in this game he needs to be careful with his throws under pressure because Tennesee has 6 interceptions in five home games and their DB's are going to be ready for him. The more pressure they can get on Schaub, the more likely it is that he will fumble or throw a pick. Believe it or not the five visting QB's who have come to Tennessee have an average QB Rating of only 56.9 this season which does not bode well for Schaub. Third down conversion rates are going to be huge in this game because Houston is converting 39.5% of their third down chances on the road this season but they have to go up against one of the best third down home defenses in the NFL as the Titans have allowed visting teams to convert only 30.8% of the time this season which should make life miserable for Houston. I don't doubt that the Texans can score some points but it won't come easy against this very good Titans home defense. The Texans season is on the line today and seeing how they have only beat teams that have losing records, I don't see any reason why they would or should compete with the better teams in this one. Albert Haynesworth is back for Tennessee and that's all you need to know.
The Tennessee Titans screwed me big time last week and although I was pissed off for backing them in a very bad spot, I have no problems coming right back at them this week and I know for a fact that they are not going to disappoint me. The general betting public has all their attention focused on teams like St. Louis and San Diego this week (one of those two teams is losing today by the way but I can't figure out which one) and I find it great that most people are off the Tennessee bandwagon. The 0.5 hook on this game is to attract even more money on Houston because Vegas know that they came out with a very low line and they know that Albert Haynesworth is back in business. The Titans have now lost three straight games and pretty much played themselves out of the playoff picture for now but a win today and they are right back in it and ready to finish the season strong. I was talking a lot of trash about who Houston has beat this season and Tennessee's wins have not been much better but the Titants did almost beat the Colts and the Titans did beat Jacksonville on the road to open the season. Now I know the Titans only have three wins at home this season but those three wins have all been by at least 4 points or more so if you like them to win this game, you like them to cover this game. The Titans come into this game averaging only 17.2 points per game at home this season and they have done that by also averaging 261.6 total yards of offense per game and 4.3 yards per play in those games. Kinda pathetic actually. However, they are going up against a Houston defense that has allowed a whopping 27.2 points per road game this season and those games were almost all against non-playoff teams. In those games the Texans allowed 341.5 total yards of offense per game and allowed 5.9 yards per play which doesn't sound so bad. However, it's time to unleash QB Vince Young in this game and I say that because the Titans average 125.4 rushing yards per home game this season on 3.8 yards per carry and they get to face one of the worst road run defenses in the NFL as the Texans have allowed 135.0 rushing yards per road game this season on a whopping 4.8 yards per carry. If Young doesn't feel like running the ball, he should have one of his best passing games all season as Houston has allowed road opposing QBs to complete 65.2% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt and Vince has been wanting to show that he is a much better passes than people think he is. He has completed 61.4% of his passes this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, has the arm to go deep and has thrown 5 touchdown passes on the season. Sure the offensive line has had issues protecting the QB's at home this season but Houston has only 8 sacks in five road games this season and they are not the playmaking defense needs to beat these Titans. The Texans have only 4 interceptions on the road this season which is definitely not good enough here and they have recoverd only 4 fumbles in five road games this season. Tennessee's biggest problem at home has been fumbles and as long as they can stay composed and hold onto the ball in this game, there is no reason why they can't blowout the Texans. The biggest issue with the Titans at home this season has been scoring touchdowns from inside the Redzone as they have done that only 23.1% of the time once inside the Redzone. Well that is about to change as Houston has allowed road opponents to score touchdowns 52.2% of the time away from home this season when playing Redzone defense. I expect Vince Young to have a big time bounce back game in this one against a very mediocre defense and I expect him to redeem himself for the way he has played the last three weeks of this season. I like the Titans offense to have another big game here.
Okay before you guys go any further and try to convince me that Houston is a decent team, I want to back once again and I want to look at who the Texans have wins against this season. They beat a 4-7 Kansas City team, they beat a 4-7 Carolina team, they beat an 0-10 Miami team, they beat a 3-8 Oakland and more recently they beat a 5-6 New Orleans team. So their five wins this season have come against non-playoff teams who have combined to win only 16 games. LMAO! WOW! HOUSTON IS A FRAUD TEAM! The Texans looked sharp in the first meeting of the year between these two teams as they scored 36 points but still ended up losing 38-36. Tennessee has now won five straight regular season games against Houston going 4-1 ATS in those games and winning them by an average margin of 6.2 points per game which should be plenty to win and cover once again here. The key to this team and their success has been the presence of Defensive Tackle Albert Haynesworth who has been out with an injury. Tennessee is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS this season when missing a game with an injury and now that he is back in the starting lineup, I think the Titans come out and dominate both sides of the ball like they did before he got hurt. Vince Young has been embarassed by his performances the last few weeks and this is a great spot for him to redeem himself against a mediocre team that has won more games than they should have. Vince Young has been disappointing the last three games but this is a perfect matchup for him to use both his legs and his arm and I think he has one of his best games of the season.
Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 6-1 ATS the game following a game where they were held to 15 points or less.
Tennessee 34, Houston 17
New York Giants -1.5 (25 Units)
The New York Giants got rid of pretty much every single damn bandwagonner they had left on the wagon last week with their horrendous performance against the Vikings at home but now that every has left the ship, in comes my sorry ass with another big play on them. I think I have won three of the four games I have bet the Giants this season with my only loss being their last home game against the Cowboys. So who the hell wants to try the Giants again this week after their pathetic 41-17 loss at the hands of the Vikings last week? Any takers? My guess is that not many like them this week which is another reason I think the spot is great for them to win another game. Most of you don't know this but the Giants are only 3-3 straight up at home this season and playing some bad football while they are 4-1 straight up away from home and away from all the New York media. They are also 3-2 ATS in those road games this season with wins and covers over Washington, Atlanta and Detroit (only ATS loss coming in London, England against the lowly Dolphins). So the Giants have won their four road games this season by an average margin of 9.2 points per game which makes them a very attractive wager here. No matter how poorly they have played in some of those games they have gotten the job done in the end and today should be no different. The Giants come into this game averaging a whopping 26.5 points per game on the road this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 396.3 total yards of offense per road game on 5.8 yards per play in those games which is very impressive for a road team. Believe it or not the Chicago Bears defense is nowhere near what it used to be at home or on the road as they have allowed a whopping 25.6 points per home game this season and in those games have allowed an incredible 390.2 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, I understand that RB Brandon Jacobs is out of today's game but that opens the door for RB Derrick Ward who has been good with his 448 rushing yards on the season, 4.4 yards per carry and 2 rushing touchdowns which is as many touchdowns as Brandon Jacobs had on the ground anyways. Chicago's run defense has been horrendous at home as they have allowed 153.8 rushing yards per home game this season on 4.9 yards per carry and Ward could have a huge game. In the air, QB Eli Manning would love to forget about last week's loss along with his 4 interceptions and that might not be hard to do. I say that because on the road this season Eli has completed 66.5% of his passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt while averaging a QB Rating of 90.3 in those games. He is going up against a Chicago secondary that has had big time problems containing opposing QBs. The Bears have allowed those QB's to complete 60.9% of their passes at home this season but for 7.6 yards per pass attempt and that is where I think the Bears are in trouble. The Giants offensive line has been good enough that they can protect Eli from the very good Chicago pass rush that averages 2.8 sacks per home game this season. The Giants have converted 44.1% of their third down chances on the road this season but they could have problem or two moving the chains on third down as Chicago has held opponents to only a 27.1% third down conversion rate at home. Having said that, I don't think the Giants will need many third downs in this game as the big plays are going to be open downfield pretty much all afternoon. The Giants are one of the best Redzone road teams when it comes to scoring touchdowns in there as they have done that 64.3% of the time on the road this season and Eli has been very good at calling plays and getting the team 7 points instead of settling for 3 points. This is a very good bounce back spot for the Giants after that loss last week and if they can come out and throw the first few punches, it's going to be very tough for the Bears defense to keep up with them this week.
The Chicago Bears game last week against the Denver Broncos was as exciting as it gets. The weather was garbage, the Bears were losing, the game was pretty much over until Devon Hester decided to take matters into his own hands and return two kicks for touchdowns to set the Bears up for the tie and the overtime win. It doesn't get any more thrilling than that in the NFL and I am really glad I was on the Bears and not the Broncos in that one. However, at the same time I realize that Chicago probably shoulda lost that game and that the odds this week are probably a bit skewed because of how both teams performed last week. The Giants one one hand looked like dog shit but we all know they are better than that while the Bears looked pretty damn good in the second half but we all know that they are not a good team this season and that is not about to change. Despite the win, the Bears are still only 2-3 straight up at home this season and 1-4 ATS in those games. So for the first time this season, the Bears managed to cover the spread at home last week but don't expect the party to last long. Are you really going to trust the one and only Rex Grossman with your money two weeks in a row? I know I wouldn't do that and please understand that despite the win over Denver, Chicago was outyarded by 137 yards in that game which is tough to believe. The Bears come into this game today averaging 21.0 points per home game this season and they have managed to do that by averaging only 296.8 total yards of offense per game and 4.7 yards per play in those games. The Giants defense has allowed 20.5 points per game on the road this season and they have done that by allowing 349.5 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Bears are going to be without starting RB Cedric Benson for the rest of the season so Adrian Peterson gets the call but how exciting can that be? Peterson has carried the ball 52 times this season for 189 yards and 3.6 yards per carry but his longest run is 11 yards and that just won't work against a Giants defense that has allowed only 88.0 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.2 yards per carry. So without an effective running game, the load of pressure is 100% on QB Rex Grossman (wow, that sucks) and while Grossman looked okay last week, it's still Rex Grossman. He has completed only 54.9% of his passes this season for 1101 passing yards, 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. The Giants secondary is banged up but they have allowed their road opponents to complete only 55.1% of their passes this season for 7.5 yards per pass attempt and unless Grossman can connect on Home Run balls on every down, the Bears are going nowhere fast. The Giants have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL on the road this season while the Bears have allowed 12 sacks in five home games which means Grossman is going to be under fire all game. Chicago QB's have thrown a whopping 12 interceptions at home this season which can't be good against a Giants defense that has 1.3 interceptions per road game this season. The Bears have not been able to hold onto the ball at home this season as they have fumbled 11 times in five homes game losing 7 of those fumbles. As impressive as the Bears third down home defense has been this season, the Giants have allowed road opponents to convert only 30.0% of the time on third downs this season. I also have to point out that the Bears are atrocious inside the Redzone at home as they have scored touchdowns only 33.3% of time once in there and that just won't cut it against a team like the Giants. The main focus of this game for the Giants is to make sure Devin Hester doesn't burn them. He averages 20.9 yards per punt return at home this season but the good news is that the Giants allow only 8.3 yards per punt return on the road this season and I don't think they'll be stupid enough to kick the ball his way unless they have to. Eli should come in here and have a very nice bounceback game where his offense is clicking and his defense is making big plays that get him the ball back in good field position. I really like the Giants to win and cover the spread in this game.
I don't know how relevant this is or how much it matters at all but the road team is 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings between these two teams and that goes all the way back to the 1992 season with three of those games being since the year 2000. I know that RB Brandon Jacobs being out is a big deal to the Giants because he is their featured back and he is worth so much to this offense but Ward is a good backup/alertnative and the Bears are in the same position as thier starting RB Cedric Benson is done for the season. Only difference is that the Bears don't have an adequate backup and have to use the mediocre Anthony Peterson. Chicago has been one of the most inconsistant teams in the NFL this season as we have seen both their Jekyll and Hyde sides. They are 0-5 ATS in games that follow a straight up win which once again indicates that they cannot string together a good group of games. The betting public is split on this game because some want to fade the Giants and believe that the Bears of 2006 are back because they won last week and the other side are taking the Giants because they realize that they are the better of the two teams this season and they realize that Eli Manning is too good of a QB not to have a big time bounce back game in this one. Giants to the bank!
Trend of the Game: NY Giants are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games as favorite of 0.5 to 3 points.
NY Giants 27, Chicago 17
GOOD LUCK TO ALL THIS SUPER SUNDAY WITH CRAZY WEATHER OUTSIDE. I WILL RELEASE MY SUNDAY NIGHT PLAY AT ABOUT 7:15pm ET. SEE YOU THEN!
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 30-20-3 (+244.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week in NFL: 0-1 ATS (-27.50 Units)
This Week in CFB: 6-1 ATS (+152.50 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Sunday, December 2
Buffalo Bills +6 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Buffalo Bills are ready, Trent Edwards is ready and all the Bills really have to worry about in this one is surviving the initial Washington emtional storm and I think they are gonna be okay. As sad as I have been all week (I will keep my Sean Taylor avatar up until after this game), it is time to move on and concentrate on what we love doing and that is making some damn cash. I know my Bills like the back of my hand and I love the spot they are in right here. Sure it was tough for the Bills to practice this week much like it was tough for a bunch of teams to practice but let me first start by saying that QB Trent Edwards is FINALLY back in the driver's seat and for those of you who didn't know, Edwards is 3-1 this season as a starter as opposed to JP Losman who is 2-5. It's a no brainer regardless of stats because Edwards looks a lot more composed out there, doesn't take as many sacks, dinks and dunks a lot more than Losman which is perfect for this style of offense and just has more of an NFL brain than JP Losman. He is 3-1 with his only loss being the heartbreaker on Monday Night against the Cowboys. Buffalo is only 1-3-1 ATS away from home this season but Trent Edwards is 1-0 SU and 1-0 ATS away from home and JP Losman was the starter for most of the Bills away games. I would like to point out that the only game Edwards started on the road was the only game the Bills managed to outyard their opponents away from home. Buffalo comes into this game averaging 15.2 points per game this season and in those games they have managed only 267.4 total yards of total offenser per game on 4.7 yards per play which is pretty damn weak. Washington has been so-so defensively as they have allowed 20.8 points per game this season and in those games have allowed 310.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, there is no Marshawn Lynch so in comes RB Fred Jackson who has only carried the ball 9 times this season for 38 yards but who at one point led the NFL Pre-Season in rushing yards and who has looked good in practice. He is going up against a Washington defense that has allowed only 97.3 rushing yards per game this season but they have allowed 3.8 yards per carry so there is hope afterall. In the ait, QB Trend Edwards' numbers are not that staggering but again winning is all that matters and Trent gets its done almost every time he plays. He has completed 66.1% of his passes this season for 790 passing yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 5 interceptions (4 as a starter). The Redskins secondary will greatly miss Sean Taylor as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 61.7% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt which should give Edwards a good chance to move the ball. The Redskins have an aggressive pass rush but again Edwards is very quick on his reads and his release and won't have the problems JP Losman had. Some of the Buffalo receivers like Lee Evans preferred JP Losman as the starter because the throws the deep ball but the coaching staff has not let Trend Edwards open up his game yet and for the first time all season, we might see them let him take shots deep to Evans to make that connection between receiver and quarterback. Despite playing well defensively the Redskins have not been making big plays needed to win ball games as they have 9 interceptions on the season and have recovered only 7 fumbles. Buffalo on the other hand has lost only 4 fumbles all season so don't count on them turning the ball over in this game. Despite playing against tough teams, the Bills have been good on third downs converting 37.6% of the time this season and Washington hasn't really been all that special at stopping their opponents. The Redzone offense has been pretty damn bad for the Bills this season but if they can get there early in this game, Washington has allowed opponents to score touchdowns from inside the Redzone 55.9% of the time this season and Edwards should feel a lot more comfortable now that he is making his fifth NFL start. All in all, the Bills running game has been mediocre most of the season (Marshawn is awesome though) so Fred Jackson should do a fine job. I love Trent Edwards as the leader of this team and like the great-late Bill Walsh told Marv Levy sometime before he passed away, drafting this kid Edwards out of Stanford could be the best thing you ever do in your GM career. Today you guys will find out why.
The Washington Redskins and the Redskins Nation are in mourning right now and you can bet your bottom dollar the start of this game is going to be as emotional as it gets. It hasn't even been a week since the death of Sean Taylor and you can only imagine what the guys on this team have been going through all week. As much as they are dedicating this game to Sean and as much as the guys win for him, practice and good practice is so important in the NFL because preparing properly for a game is so complex. I know for a fact that this team did not practice properly all week, a lot of the guys had their heads elsewhere and even though the Sean Taylor murder culprits have been found, the mood on the team is the same. Yes they are doing this for Sean today but it's not going to be easy footbal wise. The Redskins have lost three games in a row and four of their last five and it's no coincidence that some of those games lost, they allowed their highest point totals of the season without Sean Taylor in the lineup. Washington is only 3-2 straight up at home this season but they are also 1-3-1 ATS in those games with their only spread cover coming against Detroit back in early October. Other than that they have been favored in all their home games and failed to cover the other four games. So now you make them -6 for what reason exactly? I am having trouble understanding where that came from and I am not biting on the emotional factor like so many of you already have. The Redskins come into this game averaging 19.4 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 334.4 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play in those games which is better than Buffalo but not by much. The Bills defense has done pretty damn well considering having to play New England twice, Dallas once and other teams like Cincinnati and Pittsrbugh as they have allowed only 23.5 points per game this season and in those games have allowed only 378.4 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play. On the ground, RB Clinton Portis has been limited all week in practice and the team is averaging 124.6 rushing yards per game this season on 4.0 yards per carry. Buffalo's weakness has been the run defense but they have not been that bad allowing 119.7 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry. In the air, QB Jason Campbell has completed 60.2% of his passes this season for 2384 passing yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 12 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Not exactly impressive. Buffalo's secondary has allowed opposing QB's to complete 65.3% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt so the opportunities will be there for Washington but the Bills have done considerably well against QB's not named Brady, Roethlisberger and Garrard. Campbell does make a lot of bad decisions and that could him in this one as the Bills have 12 interceptions on the season. You also have to be very concerned with the fact that Washington has fumbled 2.5 times per game this season (28 fumbles on the year) and the fact that they have lost 14 of those fumbles. I say that because they are coming off a bad week of practice and the Bills have forced at least 1.1 fumbles per game this season and one fumble is all it takes to change a game. Washington has been so-so on third downs this season converting 40.0% of their chances and they could have an edge here because Buffalo's achilles heel has been third down defense and getting off the field. However, the Bills have been winning games on special teams and on defensive plays and I think they defense and the special teams are going to have several chances to make big plays in this game. Washington has taken 1.1 more penalties per game this season than the Bills which has cost them 14.5 more penatly yards per game than the Bills. Washington can be effective at times on offense and I do think they can score some points but the Bills defense played inspired in every single game started by Trent Edwards this season and today should be no different.
Yes tragedy struck this past week and yes the death of Sean Taylor hit all of us pretty hard. We mourned for a few days, we moved on but we will never forget Sean Taylor and that goes for everyone playing in this game today. I was going to leave this game alone but you guys know how I feel about my Buffalo Bills as I am a perfect 6-0 ATS betting on them this season (win or lose). You can be concerned about injuries all you want but the bottom line is that this team has been injury plagued all season with that they call 'devastating' injuries and the fact that RB Marshawn Lynch is out won't make a difference. It is very hard to tell if the Washignton Redskins are going to come out inspired (we know at first they will) or if they are going to come out dejected and/or uninterested. Regardless, this is way too many points (tragedy or no tragedy) and with the style of play that Trent Edwards brings to this team (dink and dunk, hit the checkdown on every play), that usually keeps opposing teams off-balance and it keeps the chains moving for the Bills. Once again. This Bills team is now 5-6 on the season and this is a must win for the playoff race. Trent Edwards is 3-1 as a starter, JP Losman was 2-5 as a starter. That's all you really need to know about which Bills team is showing up in this game. I think taking Washington is as square as it gets this week because they are not well prepared, this is still a race for the Wildcard and emotions are going to run high which doesn't automatically mean a win. The people betting Washigton here and the same people who bet on the Miami Hurricanes playing their last game in the Orange Bowl. R.I.P. Sean Taylor and thanks for the memories (the hit on Moorman in the PRO BOWL was my favorite of all-time).
Trend of the Game: Washington is 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.
Buffalo 23, Washington 20
Tennessee Titans -3.5 (10 Units)
The Houston Texans at times this season have looked pretty damn good but at times they have also looked like crap and last week's game in Cleveland was one of those times. A lot of people were surprised that the couldn't do better in that game considering that the Browns have been playing in way over their heads this season and considering that the team was coming off wins over New Orleans and Oakland. Yikes...I didn't realize it until writing that but beating the Raiders and Saints doesn't mean jack this season seeing how both teams are horrendous. On top of those wins Houston also has wins over Miami, Carolina and Kansas City. That list is probably the most pathetic list of teams I have ever seen and had the Texans not had the pleasure of playing against so many bad teams, who knows what their record would be right now. It's not that I don't think they haven't played well this season because they have outyarded several of their opponents but when playing against teams with winnnig records this season the team has gone 1-4 ATS and have looked as pathetic as it gets. The Texans are only 2-4 ATS away from home this season and again I just don't trust them against teams that are still running and gunning for a playoff spot. The Texans come into this game averaging 19.7 points per game on the road this season and they have done that on 362.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games which is not all that bad. However, Tennessee's defense at home is as good as it gets in the NFL and the Titans have allowed only 15.8 points per home game this season and in those games have allowed only 253.4 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Ron Dayne has not been all that special and the Texans have managed only 106.2 rushing yards per away game this season on 3.8 yards per carry. That is most certainly not effective enough to beat the Titans who have allowed only 103.2 rushing yards per home game this season for only 3.8 yards per carry and seeing how I think Houston plays from behind for the most part of this game, I don't like Dayne to do anything at all. In the air, QB Matt Schaub has played well completing 66.5% of his passes on the season for 2207 passing yards, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. As impressive as his ability to make big plays has been, Tennessee has allowed visiting road teams to complete only 54.9% of their passes this season for only 4.5 yards per pass attempt and I think this secondary is primed for another big performance at home. Houston's offensive line has been good in terms of protection but the Titans have 17 sacks in five home games this season. Schaub is not a good decision maker most of the time and in this game he needs to be careful with his throws under pressure because Tennesee has 6 interceptions in five home games and their DB's are going to be ready for him. The more pressure they can get on Schaub, the more likely it is that he will fumble or throw a pick. Believe it or not the five visting QB's who have come to Tennessee have an average QB Rating of only 56.9 this season which does not bode well for Schaub. Third down conversion rates are going to be huge in this game because Houston is converting 39.5% of their third down chances on the road this season but they have to go up against one of the best third down home defenses in the NFL as the Titans have allowed visting teams to convert only 30.8% of the time this season which should make life miserable for Houston. I don't doubt that the Texans can score some points but it won't come easy against this very good Titans home defense. The Texans season is on the line today and seeing how they have only beat teams that have losing records, I don't see any reason why they would or should compete with the better teams in this one. Albert Haynesworth is back for Tennessee and that's all you need to know.
The Tennessee Titans screwed me big time last week and although I was pissed off for backing them in a very bad spot, I have no problems coming right back at them this week and I know for a fact that they are not going to disappoint me. The general betting public has all their attention focused on teams like St. Louis and San Diego this week (one of those two teams is losing today by the way but I can't figure out which one) and I find it great that most people are off the Tennessee bandwagon. The 0.5 hook on this game is to attract even more money on Houston because Vegas know that they came out with a very low line and they know that Albert Haynesworth is back in business. The Titans have now lost three straight games and pretty much played themselves out of the playoff picture for now but a win today and they are right back in it and ready to finish the season strong. I was talking a lot of trash about who Houston has beat this season and Tennessee's wins have not been much better but the Titants did almost beat the Colts and the Titans did beat Jacksonville on the road to open the season. Now I know the Titans only have three wins at home this season but those three wins have all been by at least 4 points or more so if you like them to win this game, you like them to cover this game. The Titans come into this game averaging only 17.2 points per game at home this season and they have done that by also averaging 261.6 total yards of offense per game and 4.3 yards per play in those games. Kinda pathetic actually. However, they are going up against a Houston defense that has allowed a whopping 27.2 points per road game this season and those games were almost all against non-playoff teams. In those games the Texans allowed 341.5 total yards of offense per game and allowed 5.9 yards per play which doesn't sound so bad. However, it's time to unleash QB Vince Young in this game and I say that because the Titans average 125.4 rushing yards per home game this season on 3.8 yards per carry and they get to face one of the worst road run defenses in the NFL as the Texans have allowed 135.0 rushing yards per road game this season on a whopping 4.8 yards per carry. If Young doesn't feel like running the ball, he should have one of his best passing games all season as Houston has allowed road opposing QBs to complete 65.2% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt and Vince has been wanting to show that he is a much better passes than people think he is. He has completed 61.4% of his passes this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, has the arm to go deep and has thrown 5 touchdown passes on the season. Sure the offensive line has had issues protecting the QB's at home this season but Houston has only 8 sacks in five road games this season and they are not the playmaking defense needs to beat these Titans. The Texans have only 4 interceptions on the road this season which is definitely not good enough here and they have recoverd only 4 fumbles in five road games this season. Tennessee's biggest problem at home has been fumbles and as long as they can stay composed and hold onto the ball in this game, there is no reason why they can't blowout the Texans. The biggest issue with the Titans at home this season has been scoring touchdowns from inside the Redzone as they have done that only 23.1% of the time once inside the Redzone. Well that is about to change as Houston has allowed road opponents to score touchdowns 52.2% of the time away from home this season when playing Redzone defense. I expect Vince Young to have a big time bounce back game in this one against a very mediocre defense and I expect him to redeem himself for the way he has played the last three weeks of this season. I like the Titans offense to have another big game here.
Okay before you guys go any further and try to convince me that Houston is a decent team, I want to back once again and I want to look at who the Texans have wins against this season. They beat a 4-7 Kansas City team, they beat a 4-7 Carolina team, they beat an 0-10 Miami team, they beat a 3-8 Oakland and more recently they beat a 5-6 New Orleans team. So their five wins this season have come against non-playoff teams who have combined to win only 16 games. LMAO! WOW! HOUSTON IS A FRAUD TEAM! The Texans looked sharp in the first meeting of the year between these two teams as they scored 36 points but still ended up losing 38-36. Tennessee has now won five straight regular season games against Houston going 4-1 ATS in those games and winning them by an average margin of 6.2 points per game which should be plenty to win and cover once again here. The key to this team and their success has been the presence of Defensive Tackle Albert Haynesworth who has been out with an injury. Tennessee is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS this season when missing a game with an injury and now that he is back in the starting lineup, I think the Titans come out and dominate both sides of the ball like they did before he got hurt. Vince Young has been embarassed by his performances the last few weeks and this is a great spot for him to redeem himself against a mediocre team that has won more games than they should have. Vince Young has been disappointing the last three games but this is a perfect matchup for him to use both his legs and his arm and I think he has one of his best games of the season.
Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 6-1 ATS the game following a game where they were held to 15 points or less.
Tennessee 34, Houston 17
New York Giants -1.5 (25 Units)
The New York Giants got rid of pretty much every single damn bandwagonner they had left on the wagon last week with their horrendous performance against the Vikings at home but now that every has left the ship, in comes my sorry ass with another big play on them. I think I have won three of the four games I have bet the Giants this season with my only loss being their last home game against the Cowboys. So who the hell wants to try the Giants again this week after their pathetic 41-17 loss at the hands of the Vikings last week? Any takers? My guess is that not many like them this week which is another reason I think the spot is great for them to win another game. Most of you don't know this but the Giants are only 3-3 straight up at home this season and playing some bad football while they are 4-1 straight up away from home and away from all the New York media. They are also 3-2 ATS in those road games this season with wins and covers over Washington, Atlanta and Detroit (only ATS loss coming in London, England against the lowly Dolphins). So the Giants have won their four road games this season by an average margin of 9.2 points per game which makes them a very attractive wager here. No matter how poorly they have played in some of those games they have gotten the job done in the end and today should be no different. The Giants come into this game averaging a whopping 26.5 points per game on the road this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 396.3 total yards of offense per road game on 5.8 yards per play in those games which is very impressive for a road team. Believe it or not the Chicago Bears defense is nowhere near what it used to be at home or on the road as they have allowed a whopping 25.6 points per home game this season and in those games have allowed an incredible 390.2 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, I understand that RB Brandon Jacobs is out of today's game but that opens the door for RB Derrick Ward who has been good with his 448 rushing yards on the season, 4.4 yards per carry and 2 rushing touchdowns which is as many touchdowns as Brandon Jacobs had on the ground anyways. Chicago's run defense has been horrendous at home as they have allowed 153.8 rushing yards per home game this season on 4.9 yards per carry and Ward could have a huge game. In the air, QB Eli Manning would love to forget about last week's loss along with his 4 interceptions and that might not be hard to do. I say that because on the road this season Eli has completed 66.5% of his passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt while averaging a QB Rating of 90.3 in those games. He is going up against a Chicago secondary that has had big time problems containing opposing QBs. The Bears have allowed those QB's to complete 60.9% of their passes at home this season but for 7.6 yards per pass attempt and that is where I think the Bears are in trouble. The Giants offensive line has been good enough that they can protect Eli from the very good Chicago pass rush that averages 2.8 sacks per home game this season. The Giants have converted 44.1% of their third down chances on the road this season but they could have problem or two moving the chains on third down as Chicago has held opponents to only a 27.1% third down conversion rate at home. Having said that, I don't think the Giants will need many third downs in this game as the big plays are going to be open downfield pretty much all afternoon. The Giants are one of the best Redzone road teams when it comes to scoring touchdowns in there as they have done that 64.3% of the time on the road this season and Eli has been very good at calling plays and getting the team 7 points instead of settling for 3 points. This is a very good bounce back spot for the Giants after that loss last week and if they can come out and throw the first few punches, it's going to be very tough for the Bears defense to keep up with them this week.
The Chicago Bears game last week against the Denver Broncos was as exciting as it gets. The weather was garbage, the Bears were losing, the game was pretty much over until Devon Hester decided to take matters into his own hands and return two kicks for touchdowns to set the Bears up for the tie and the overtime win. It doesn't get any more thrilling than that in the NFL and I am really glad I was on the Bears and not the Broncos in that one. However, at the same time I realize that Chicago probably shoulda lost that game and that the odds this week are probably a bit skewed because of how both teams performed last week. The Giants one one hand looked like dog shit but we all know they are better than that while the Bears looked pretty damn good in the second half but we all know that they are not a good team this season and that is not about to change. Despite the win, the Bears are still only 2-3 straight up at home this season and 1-4 ATS in those games. So for the first time this season, the Bears managed to cover the spread at home last week but don't expect the party to last long. Are you really going to trust the one and only Rex Grossman with your money two weeks in a row? I know I wouldn't do that and please understand that despite the win over Denver, Chicago was outyarded by 137 yards in that game which is tough to believe. The Bears come into this game today averaging 21.0 points per home game this season and they have managed to do that by averaging only 296.8 total yards of offense per game and 4.7 yards per play in those games. The Giants defense has allowed 20.5 points per game on the road this season and they have done that by allowing 349.5 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Bears are going to be without starting RB Cedric Benson for the rest of the season so Adrian Peterson gets the call but how exciting can that be? Peterson has carried the ball 52 times this season for 189 yards and 3.6 yards per carry but his longest run is 11 yards and that just won't work against a Giants defense that has allowed only 88.0 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.2 yards per carry. So without an effective running game, the load of pressure is 100% on QB Rex Grossman (wow, that sucks) and while Grossman looked okay last week, it's still Rex Grossman. He has completed only 54.9% of his passes this season for 1101 passing yards, 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. The Giants secondary is banged up but they have allowed their road opponents to complete only 55.1% of their passes this season for 7.5 yards per pass attempt and unless Grossman can connect on Home Run balls on every down, the Bears are going nowhere fast. The Giants have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL on the road this season while the Bears have allowed 12 sacks in five home games which means Grossman is going to be under fire all game. Chicago QB's have thrown a whopping 12 interceptions at home this season which can't be good against a Giants defense that has 1.3 interceptions per road game this season. The Bears have not been able to hold onto the ball at home this season as they have fumbled 11 times in five homes game losing 7 of those fumbles. As impressive as the Bears third down home defense has been this season, the Giants have allowed road opponents to convert only 30.0% of the time on third downs this season. I also have to point out that the Bears are atrocious inside the Redzone at home as they have scored touchdowns only 33.3% of time once in there and that just won't cut it against a team like the Giants. The main focus of this game for the Giants is to make sure Devin Hester doesn't burn them. He averages 20.9 yards per punt return at home this season but the good news is that the Giants allow only 8.3 yards per punt return on the road this season and I don't think they'll be stupid enough to kick the ball his way unless they have to. Eli should come in here and have a very nice bounceback game where his offense is clicking and his defense is making big plays that get him the ball back in good field position. I really like the Giants to win and cover the spread in this game.
I don't know how relevant this is or how much it matters at all but the road team is 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings between these two teams and that goes all the way back to the 1992 season with three of those games being since the year 2000. I know that RB Brandon Jacobs being out is a big deal to the Giants because he is their featured back and he is worth so much to this offense but Ward is a good backup/alertnative and the Bears are in the same position as thier starting RB Cedric Benson is done for the season. Only difference is that the Bears don't have an adequate backup and have to use the mediocre Anthony Peterson. Chicago has been one of the most inconsistant teams in the NFL this season as we have seen both their Jekyll and Hyde sides. They are 0-5 ATS in games that follow a straight up win which once again indicates that they cannot string together a good group of games. The betting public is split on this game because some want to fade the Giants and believe that the Bears of 2006 are back because they won last week and the other side are taking the Giants because they realize that they are the better of the two teams this season and they realize that Eli Manning is too good of a QB not to have a big time bounce back game in this one. Giants to the bank!
Trend of the Game: NY Giants are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games as favorite of 0.5 to 3 points.
NY Giants 27, Chicago 17
GOOD LUCK TO ALL THIS SUPER SUNDAY WITH CRAZY WEATHER OUTSIDE. I WILL RELEASE MY SUNDAY NIGHT PLAY AT ABOUT 7:15pm ET. SEE YOU THEN!
