MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 0-2 (-8.80 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 0-2 (-8.80.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. I decided before this season started that my ultimate goal would be profit and not showcasing. That is probably going to eliminate the possibility of me having 50 unit plays like last season (they are silly but fun) and I don't know that they go down very well in a serious community like this one. Anyways, best of luck to all this upcoming season, let's have some fun and keep sharing information.
*I think my approach to the first week was a bit off after the first night so I have decided not to place some of the wagers I had originally posted and have decided to keep some of them and bet on some new ones. Here is my new gig for the first week. My record is up-to-date and these are the picks I am playing this weekend. Nothing else. This is a one week thing.
-----------------------------------------
Friday, August 31
Syracuse Orangemen +3.5 (10 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Washington Huskies are going to be a much better team this season than the 5-7 Huskies we saw last season because this is Ty Willingham's third season here and third seasons are when head coaches start to make noise or progress with a program. However, I have to warn you right now, and I don't know why this would change, that since joining this team two season ago Willingham has won only three games on the road. As a matter of fact the Huskies are 4-17 away from home the last five seasons and they now have the pleasure of kicking off their season on the road versus a home team that no matter how shitty they are, have a bigger home field advantage than many other teams. The Huskies are going to start redshirted freshman QB Jake Locker tonight who is apparently already a superstar in Seattle but im not convinced that he can come out East and play the game of his life. I mean this is his very first career college football start and it comes the Carrier Dome which has seen the home underdog cover 9 of the last 14 games as exactly that, a home underdog. Locker is a dual threat QB who has the opportunity to do anything he wants tonight as long as he doesn't make mistakes. Syracuse's defense is borderling horrendous (dead last in the Big East in almost every category talent wise). Syracuse allowed 4.8 yards per carry on the ground in 2006 so I think we are going to see a lot of running by Locker in this game. The only issue is that Syracuse returns quite a few guys who can pick passes off (returning defensive players had 11 interceptions combined in 2006) and with the inexperience of the new QB, I think the Orangemen can force some turnovers in this game. Regardless of how their defense plays, I don't think Washington is going to be effective enough on offense to grab a comfortable lead and even at that, they could quite possibly be playing from behind most of this game. They do have that QB that could make some things happen but in the end they're just too brutal on the road.
The Syracuse Orangemen have been picked by many to finish dead last in the Big East (which is not saying much considering some of the teams at the bottom of this pile) but that doesn't mean it will necessiraly happen. I know they have the least amount of returning starters in the Big East with 12 guys back from last year and I know Greg Robinson's job is on the line if this team doesn't come out of the gates and win at least three of their first five games so expect them to be ready tonight. Syracuse has struggled badly in previous home openers (the last five years have been a disaster) but I do like the fact that PAC 10 schools have a lot of problems when they play in the Carrier Dome as the PAC 10 is only 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played in Syracuse. I'm not looking at how the Orange defense is going to do in this game because the defesive side of things is going to be dictated by the offensive side of things and for some reason I think the Orange offense is going to surprised quite a few people in this game. QB Andrew Robinson is another first time starter (much like Loker) but he has attempted 8 passes and rushed for 45 on nine attempts. You had to be impressed by Robinson when he came in against Rutgers last season for the first time and led them on an 80 yard touchdown drive. The biggest weakness on the Washington defense (and there are many) is defintiely their secondary. That gets me excited because WR's Taj Smith and Mike Williams are both in the TOP 10 receivers for the Big East and both averaged more than 18.0 yards per catch last season. The Huskies are completely hopeless and undersized against both of these guys and I don't doubt for a minute that Syracuse can pound the ball deep or short up the middle and get some big yardage plays in this game. I know Robinson is not battle tested but he is lucky that another first time starter is on the other side of the ball and I actually think Robinson will be the better looking QB of the two in this game.
The bottom line here is that playing the Carrier Dome is tough. However, this is one of the most winnable games all year for Syracuse as they face a PAC 10 team coming from out West who are starting a young prodigy QB for the first time ever. Well the Orange have somewhat of a future star starting for them as well as he is actually a bit more seasoned (8 pass attemps) than the Washington quarterback who has never played a single down in college football. If you don't believe me that this place is tough to play in just look at Syracuse's 29-12 ATS record in their last 41 home games (over the last seven seasons) and that tells the story. Also keep in mind that Washington is one of the worst road teams in the entire country and I just don't understand why people think they will win when they have won only 4 of their last 21 road games.
Trend of the game: The PAC 10 is only 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played in the Carrier Dome.
Syracuse 31, Washington 16
Saturday, September 1
Alabama-Birmingham Blazers +21.5 (3 Units)
The Alabama-Birmingham Blazers are coming off a 3-9 season that saw them reach futile numbers in several offensive and defensive categories. Can they get any worse? Im not too sure and I would like to think no. However, since starting football operations back in 1991, UAB has managed to win only once when playing their first road game of the season so you can forget about any kinds of upsets happening in this bad boy. You don't really need an upset though to cover the spread in a game. We are talking about a team that could quite possibly win only one or two games this season seeing how they were horrendous in 2006 while returning 12 starters on both sides of the ball so how the hell are they gonna manage now that they are returning only 8 total combined starters on both sides of the ball? Well I don't know that it will be much different from last year. Neil Callaway takes over this team, making his first ever college football start as a head coach and although he has never coached at this level, I think he can brings a bit of energy to this team. With Florida State waiting in the horizon next week, I am pretty sure that this football program is going to want to get some kinks out of the way in a leadup to their September 15 real season debut (when they get to face Alcorn State in their home opener). The Blazers are renovating their entire offense and moving into a pro-style attack even though they are missing several key piece of the puzzle to pull the move off. Michigan State, sucked ass on defense last year and is returning only 6 starters on the defensive side of things and it's gonna take a whole lot more than Mark Dantonio's arrival to change things on that side of the ball. UAB are not about to unload on Michigan State but they are going to score the 7-10 points required to probably cover this spread and not many people are giving them a chance here. For those of you who don't remember, this UAB team was picked as one of the trash teams last year as well but they came out in their road opener and almost beat the #10 Oklahoma Sooners who much like Michigan State in this game, were breaking in a new quarterback and it cost them in the end. There may not be much life in the betting world for this UAB team but the last seven seasons they have gone 17-12 ATS as road underdogs and that tells me that oddsmakers have never really known how to approach this kind of team.
The Michigan State Spartans are ready to begin the Mark Dantonio era after he came swooping over here all the way from Cincinnati. One thing we already know about Dantonio from his days back at Ohio State is that he likes to win, he likes to make things simple and he doesn't back down from anybody. Some of you will probably be scared away from betting such a large spread on the Spartans opening home game because of their 10 point win last season as -29 point underdogs against Idaho and because of their failure to cover the double digit spread against Central Michigan in the home opener the year before. Well at first it didn't bother me but the more I capped this game, the more I realized that it's going to take a lot more than just one game for things to change in East Lansing. When new coaching staffs with as much experience as Dantonio has, step into a new program, they usually want to make a statement and they usually want to show the hometown fans that the signing was worthy and that this is a season to look forward to. That is very true but you also have to consider that this can lead to some bad calls and some timely mistakes. I am kind of excited to see QB Brian Hoyer take over for the departed Drew Stanton because this Michigan State team just can't get any worse than the 4-8 they were last year and they can only improve on the 3-8-1 ATS mark they were labeled with in 2006. Hoyer has a very strong arm and has enough experience to lead this team to big things. He has appeared in 13 games over the last two years passing for 6 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and 1000+ yards which is not bad for a guy learning the ropes. Javon Ringer only managed 86 rush attempts last season but he rushed for 497 yards in those attempts for 1 touchdowns and 5.8 yards per carry. Now that things are back to normal, I think he is going to be the star on this team and I think he is going to get his fair share of yardage in this game. UAB stands no chance of stopping anyone on the ground in this game but if they can force Michigan State to run run and run the ball some more, they'll have a chance to make some plays in the air and possibly bother the new QB. UAB have only 4 starters back on defense and after allowing 4.3 yards per carry last season with 7 starters back on defense, this team is in huge trouble when it comes to stopping the run. Michigan State is a team I originally liked in this matchup because it seems like they like to play for Mark Dantonio but then again I asked myself when the last time was that I saw a Michigan State blow opponents away at home this early in the season and nothing really comes to mind.
I have to admit my original lean and posted pick/writeup for this game was on Michigan State to win in a blowout. But after a dismal opening night of capping, I went back to the drawing board and look at some key factors that have made me succesful capping college football in the past. Michigan State has won 8 straight home openers and they have done it by an average of 18.0 points per game but those 18 points don't do the job when it comes to covering this spread and the Spartans are actually only 11-20 ATS the last seven season as the home favorite in a game. I know Dantonio is going to do some good things here in East Lansing but I got a bit too excited about this team and I forgot that they are young and working with a new head coach who is probably going to do a lot better against some of the big name teams than he is in games like this. I was on Michigan State to begin with but now I really like the UAB Blazers who look too down and out to compete but who will probably have the opportunity to make some plays with their new QB.
Trend of the Game: Michigan State is 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games as a favorite.
Michigan State 34, Alabama-Birmingham 20
Wyoming Cowboys +3 (1 Unit)
The Virginia Cavaliers are notoriously known to suck ass on the road and that is one of the main reasons I am going to fade them in this spot. The Cavaliers come into this game off a 5-7 season which ended up being their first non-winning season since 2001. Al Groh determined to turn this program around but I find it hard to believe he can get things going in this game seeing how Virginia is 1-9 in their last 10 away games and they have lost those games by an average of 10 points per game. I know he has a huge amount of starters back on this team (I think it's 19 returning starters if combined the offense and the defense) but that doesn't always guarantee results. In 2003 Virginia had 15 starters return to this team but still got blown out in their first road game of the season against South Carolina. Making things even sadder is the fact that Virginia has not scored a point on the road since sometime mid-October last year when they dropped 21 on East Carolina in a 31-21 loss. After that they put up big fat goose eggs at Florida State and Virginia Tech. Make no mistake about it, Wyoming's defense is by no means great but they did allow only 22.0 points per game last season and they do return five starters on defense and 44 lettermen on the whole team. The secondary is very strong on this team and running up the middle and breaking secondary tackles is impossible at times. Regardless of how well RB Jameel Sowell played as a freshman last year, the Cavaliers don't really have a rushing threat now that Jason Snelling and his 772 rushing yards, 4.2 yards per carry are gone. His replacements all failed to crack the 3.5 yards per carry barrier last season. Cedric Peerman is not a great replacement and I expect Virginia to have problems moving the ball (whats new?) in this game. Sowell is still young and learning and starting off his season on the road is not the best of things. They do have a very good and experienced offensive line but what good is that if you don't have the backfield to exploit other teams? The only hope is for Sowell to have a huge game both on the ground and in the air but like I mentioned before, his youth and inexperience on the road is a big concern for me and I don't think Wyoming is going to let him run the show this time around.
The Wyoming Cowboys come into this game off a 6-6 season that saw them flirt with their first seven win season in a very long time. I don't know that they can be as good as they were in 2006 but I do know that War Memorila Stadium is going to be rocking for this game and I remember from past years that this is not a place opposing teams want to play in come opening day. I say that because Wyoming is 12-1 SU since 1994 in home openers with the average margin of victory being 21 points per game which is impressive. I know the Cowboys have not averaged 30 points per game in a very long time but this could be the season where they come close to cracking the barrier and I actually like this year's offense a lot better than the one they had out there last year. They bring back QB Karsten Sween who completed 60.4% of his passes as a freshman for 1304 yards and 9 touchdowns. Also back are RB's Wynel Seldon and Devin Moore who both combined to rush for 1184 yards last season and who both are threats on the ground. Virginia has 10 starters back on defense but they are still to ineffective offensively to give their defense the breaks they need to recover from long defensive stops. The Cowboys are probably going to have to ask Karsten Sween to with short passes and quick releases because we all know the Cavs are going to come at him hard and we all know the only weakness in this Mike Breske defense is probably their secondary which I expect WR Michael Ford is going to be able to exploit in this game. Virginia allowed only 17.8 points per game in 2006 and with so many guys back they are going to be tough to beat. However, the energy and excitement of the new season is definitely going to benefit Wyoming in this game and I say that because it's rare that ACC come to Mountain West houses and when they do come their track record is not all that good. That's probably because the altitude here is so high and teams from the East find it very difficult to adjust having only been in town for a few days. I don't know how effective Wyoming can be on offense but I think as long as they can protect Sween and get him to work on some of the young corners, they should have no problems coming out on top in this game.
We all remember the matchup last year when Wyoming went to Charlottesville and almost pulled off the upset in overtime losing 13-12 in dramatic fashion. That loss is most definitely still fresh on their minds and seeing how Virginia is only 6-8 ATS as a road favorite the last seven season, I think the revenge angle has a lot more steam than some people may think. Wyoming on the other hand is 12-8-1 ATS over the last seven years when they have been tagged with the home underdog status and that tells me that although this is not a tough place to play, the Cowboys love playing for something at home and it's worth nothing that head coach Joe Glenn has a losing record overall during his time at Wyoming but the Cowboys are 14-9 at home during that time span. I would never go against a team that has won 12 of their last 13 home openers and I would never bet on a team like Virginia who have a good defense but who don't have good offense to compliment that D and that will ultimately cost them the game. Two young QB's at work in a rematch from last year...gimme the home dog here.
Trend of the Game: Wyoming is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Connecticut Huskies -4 (3 Units)
So whats the deal with the UConn Huskies anyways? Well from that I can tell they are not too often named road favorites in season opening games and it may come as no surprise to anyone that this team is coming off a 4-8 season last year. However, it immediately has to be noted (because too many people are overlooking this), that UConn lost 44 starts to injuries last season which was amongst the leaders in the Country for games lost due to injuries. So you can only imagine that with 14 starters back on both sides of the ball combined that this team will ressemble the 7-4 squad of 2004 a lot more than they do the 2005 and 2006 losing season teams. The most important aspect of this game is going to be the ability to avoid the inevitable and that is that Duke has to win a game sooner or later. I know the Huskies have had problems on offense the last two seasons and that is probably why they have been losing seasons but this year they bring back their outstanding leading rusher RB Donald Brown who ran for 896 yards last season with 7 touchdowns and a very impressive 5.6 yards per carry. Duke linebacker Michael Tauiliili led the Blue Devils in tackles the last few seasons and he is suspended for this game so expect some holes to be wide open for Brown. Also, the team now has a true QB so DJ Hernandez can go back to playing his position of WR. The new QB is JUCO transfer Tyler Lorenzen who passed for 2960 yards, completed 69% of his passes for 26 touchdowns and 3 interceptions while also rushing for 836 yards in 2006. Now that's impressive and much needed for this offense. Duke is dead last in the ACC in just about every defensive category so I think UConn is going to have an easy time moving the ball around and I think they are going to rush for 300+ yards in this game. Three of the top four receivers from 2006 are also back this season and that should let Lorenzen air the ball out on some play action whenever Duke gets too caught up trying to stop Donald Brown from rushing for 200+ yards in this game. Randy Edsall always has his guys ready to play on the road as favorites as the Huskies are 6-3 ATS the last seven seasons when favored on the road. I don't expect them to slow down for a team that has yet to win.
The Duke Blue Devils are coming off another 0-12 season last year and they have now lost 20 straight games and are reaching new futility highs for college football. A lot of experts are calling for the streak to come to an end in this game but something tells me that that won't be the case and that Duke is going to look like they have the last God knows how many seasons now. The Blue Devils have not been kind to bettors backing them as home underdogs as they are 13-22 ATS as home dogs the last seven seasons and they have been a much better bet when they are 30-40 points underdogs on the road and not at home. I mean Wallace Wade Stadium has some crazy fans but I don't know that they can make enough noise for anyone to notice in this game. The Blue Devils are probably going to win their first game against...nobody. They have the 9th toughest schedule in the Country and head coach Ted Roof is not about to improve on his 5-34 mark as the head coach of this team. Yes the motivation is going to be high in this game because it is their only winnable game on the schedule this season but you have to be crazy to believe it. They do have the advantage of bringing back 11 starters on offense which is the most in the ACC but their only hope is that QB Thaddeus Lewis has a monster game and that he is able to connect with all his returning receivers from last season. UConn allowed 27.0 points per game in 2006 which is very strange and unusual for a team that has prided itself on playing solid defense since joining the Big East. You have to keep in mind that this was the result of so many injuries on defense and that everyone is back. Since we already know that UConn can stop the run a lot better this year than they did last year, it will be up to the secondary to make things happen. Todd Orlando (the DC at UConn) has done a tremendous job the last few years given the kind of talent he has been presented with so expect him to do a much better job than last year. Lewis the QB at Duke threw 16 interceptions and only 11 touchdown passes in 2006 as a freshman which is not bad but not good either. It's gonna take a lot for this offense to improve on their 14.9 points per game last season. Despite having their highest point outputs come at home against weaker opponents, Duke also allowed some big time yardage and big time points at home and were a -8 in the turnovers in 2006.
Without their defensive leader, the Duke Blue Devils are screwed because Connecticut is going to pound away on the ground and they are going to pound away with some very strong runners. Tauiliili being suspended is as bad as it gets for Duke because he led these guys the last two season and now they have to fall back on younger characters. I have to once again mention that Duke seems to play a lot better as a road underdog than they do a home underdog as they have covered only 13 of 35 games as a home underdog over the last seven season and 21 of 37 games as a road underdog the last seven seasons. Duke might score enough points to make this interesting but in the end they just won't have what it takes to get the job done on both sides of the ball and UConn is going to look like the team that scored 30+ points per game in their first year of Big East play.
Trend of the Game: Duke is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog.
Connecticut 34, Duke 24
Nebraska Cornhuskers -21 (1 Unit)
The Nevada Wolfpack have been one of the best money making options over the last few seasons as they have covered 17 of their last 22 games on the ATS front and that makes them an attracting wager here. However, all those games were with senior and now departed QB Jeff Rowe. I read somewhere that although one of Chris Ault's most inexperienced teams ever with only 12 returning starters this season, Ault is the most impressed by the willingness to succeed some of these guys are showing. That stems from the 'Nevada Run' which is a gruelling run that every player has to participate in before the season starts and for the very first time Chris Ault's 23 years as the head coach of this team, every single player finished under the set time. That's dedication but dedication doesn't always turn into success. Replacing Rowe's 1907 passing yards and 17 touchdown passes is going to be next to impossible and I don't know how the Nevada offense is going to survive in this game. Expect both QB's Nick Graziano and Colin Kaepernick to see some time in this game. They are both fresh out of the gates but can both sling the ball downfield or run with it just as well. Nebraska's defensive line is one of the weakest in the Big 12 so I expect the Wolpack to slow this game down early, even if they go down by a touchdown or two, in hopes of letting their guys get comfortable with the system and letting their young QB work his thing out. RB's Luke Lippincott and Brandon Fagger are both back this season and they both averaged 4.9 yards per carry last season and scored 12 combined touchdowns in only 149 combined carries. With the threat of their QB's running and the threat of two good RB's, I think Nevada can do enough in this game to keep it close for the most part but in the end I don't think they can keep up with the pace of a high flying Nebraska offense. Most people are thinking that this is just way too many points to pass up on for a team that has covered so many games over the last few years but every team has to rebuild at some point. Nevada has a shaddy history of opening road games having lost 11 straight road openers by 23.0 points and im pretty sure that streak won't stop once they leave Lincoln later on today. Nevada won't win this game and I don't think it's even gonna be close.
The Nebraska Cornuskers and namely some of their players are going to be under an immense amount of pressure to blow this Nevada team out of the water. They had a similar WAC Conference opponent in Louisiana Tech last season and they killed them 49-10 to open the season. However, make no mistake about it, Louisiana Tech is not a well coached team while Nevada has one of the best coaches in the WAC Conference and good coaches know what to do to keep games from turning into blowouts like the game did last year. But I do like the fact that this is the big debut of Sam Keller, the disgruntled Arizona State transfer who sat out last year, and with his debut comes a ton of pressure on him to get things done. 2005 was the last time Keller stepped on any football field and made any kind of pass attempt and he could be rusty as hell coming out of the gates here. Not a problem. Gone is their leading rusher Brandon Jackson but that won't make a difference because his RB Marlon Lucky and RB Cody Glenn were just as effective and they are probably going to demolish Nevada's defensive front. Both guys combined for 1098 rushing yards as Brandon Jackson's backups and they also combined for a whopping14 touchdowns. In his seven Arizona State starts, Keller did complete only 59% of his passes and he did throw 9 interceptions to go along with his 20 touchdown passes but I think he is the right fit for this offense. Keller has several options and look for Nebraska to use a lot of run game to get him in the mood for some play action. It is very possible that Nebraska be looking ahead and very possible that they somewhat struggle against what I called an underrated Nevada defense but it's the Nevada offense that is going to make the mistakes that allow Nebraska to capitalize. The Cornuskers return only 11 starters on both sides of the ball combined and that's a big loss for them compared to the 15 they returned last year. Under Bill Callahan the Huskers are only 3-6 ATS as a home favorite when returning less than 15 starters from the year before but like I said before, I think Sam Keller is going to be just fine in this run-oriented offense and I think the run game is going to be strong enough to setup some big time plays in the air attack.
This is an interesting game. I was on Nevada at first but changed my mind and went with Nebraska after re-capping the game to a tee. The public will surely pound away on Nebraska thinking that Sam Keller is the next Zac Taylor but that might not be the case until a few games later in the season. This is by far the easiest game for Nebraska on their early schedule and that has me excited because they may very well try to keep things as simple as possible for Keller which means that they are going to have fun out there and points are surely to follow. Nevada has been a competitive team over the year but we all saw what the Cornhuskers did to another WAC Opponent (Louisiana Tech) in 2006 in their home opener and with another good QB coupled with a great running attack, we could very well see the same type of scoreline in this game.
Trend of the Game: Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
Nebraska 41, Nevada 10
Memphis Tigers +3 (5 Units)
The Ole Miss Rebels make the hike up to Memphis for this game coming off a 4-8 season and although this team has won seven games under third year head coach Ed Orgeron, they are only 1-9 SU under on the road with him controlling this team. I'm sorry but when teams can't win on the road there is no rhyme or reason for them to be favored in this game. These two teams opened the season against each other in 2006 as well and Ole Miss ended up winning by three points as a three point favorite. This is the return matchup now and you can expect the Tigers to be ready for some revenge. Ole Miss played a lot of true freshman last season with the hopes that they would be ready to go this year and only time will tell if that really made a difference or not. Ole Miss has rarely been favored on the road in the past and when they have, they have not done so well and gone 3-6-1 ATS as the road favorite. The Rebels come into this game with two capable and experience starting QB's but the numbers were not good for either player in 2006. Brent Schaeffer is the more talented of the two but he makes way too many mistakes and does not react well to pressure. Seth Adams on the other hand is more composed but has a lot less game experience. The offensive line for Ole Miss is pretty damn good but they have some serious issues with their QB's and luckily for them their RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis can motor his way down the field and possibly keep them in this game. Memphis allowed a whopping 30.4 points per game last season while returning only 5 defensive starters. However this time they have 8 guys back on defense and that should have them playing like they did 2005 when they allowed only 23.0 points while returning 7 starters. All-in-all, Ole Miss is going to have success running the ball but I think both their QB's are going to make way too many mistakes and in the end that is what will cost them this game.
The Memphis Tigers come into this game and this season off a pathetic 2-10 season last year but don't let that get you down because this is a team on the rise and with their 16 returning starters and 47 returning lettermen from last season, several experts are calling for this Tommy West led team to go back to their winning ways again this season. Memphis somehow managed to win only one home game in 2006 and it was against a Division II school early in the season. That is why I am happy that they get Ole Miss to kick the year off. This is a great revenge spot from their meeting last year where Memphis almost pulled off the win only to lose 28-25 at Ole Miss and I think Tommy West is going to have that particular game on their minds all weekend. With only 11 returning starters last season the Tigers had all sorts of problems on both sides of the ball but now that the team is more experienced, I fully expect them to rejoin the upper ranks of the Conference USA and look like the Memphis team that won eight games in both 2003 and 2004. QB Martin Hankins and his 2550 passing yards for 18 touchdowns is back and so are three of his top four receivers from last year. RB's Joseph Doss and Earnest Williams are also both back and ready to tear things up this season. Ole Miss has a strong defense last season but with only six returning starters I don't think they can match the 22.9 points per game they were allowing. Their LB's and their secondary are week which is why I think Hankins is going to have a field day airing the ball out and pounding away on the ground. As long as Memphis doesn't get caught sleeping on special teams. Ole Miss has one of the best ST units in college football and it's going to take some hard work for Memphis to pull this thing off.
This is the 57th all-time meeting between these two dirty south schools and it sure as hell wont be the last. Many Memphis backers are potentially going to be scared off by this game because out of those 56 career meetings between the two school, the Tigers have won only 10 of them and have not had much success against the Rebels. However, I really like the revenge spot from last year's season opener at Ole Miss and I think this experienced Memphis team is going to make some noise on offense and on defense reverting back to their 2003 and 2004 ground, pound and air things out kinda style. Memphis is 9-5 ATS the last seven seasons as the home underdog so this is a popular role for them while Ole Miss is 3-6-1 ATS the last seven seasons as the road favorite which also indicates that they do not react well to oddsmakers giving them an edge away from home.
Trend of the Game: Ole Miss is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 September games.
Memphis 34, Mississippi 26
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +2 (3 Units)
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders come into this game off a 7-6 season that saw them reach their first ever Bowl Game. I don't know the exact statistics on how teams reaching their first Bowl game do the next season but I do know that reaching a Bowl Game for the very first time is huge for any program and I would suspect that the Blue Raiders are pretty pumped up about the season. For anyone who doesn't follow the Sun Belt Conference, Middle Tennessee was 4-0 in conference away games last season and they won those games by an average margin of 23.0 points per game. So after coming so close to winning the Sun Belt Conference championship (they blew a big time lead to Troy late in the game and were sent packing with nothing), the Blue Raiders bring back 12 starters from last year's team and still have the best defense in the Conference. The only concern for Middle Tennesse right now is their lack of experience at the QB position. That's also why we probably have such a shaddy line this game. Last year's QB Clint Marks is gone and taking over is Joe Craddock who has virtually no gametime experience. However, I have a lot faith in the Middle Tennesse running attack that has two returning RB's who averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry last season and combined for 12 touchdowns despite playing second fiddle to Eugene Gross who is now gone. Florida Atlantic allowed 4.9 yards per carry in 2006 but they do have an improved defensive line and an improved linebacking corps which should somewhat help a bit. The only problem with Florida Atlantic is that their defense is going to get tired from all the three and outs the offense hooks them up with in this game. The only reason the books are having so many problems setting a proper line for this game is because they don't know what to expect from the new QB Joe Craddock. Despite his lack of experience and gametime plays, he does have a very strong arm that will allow him to exploit a very undersized Florida Atlantic secondary. Rick Stockhill takes pride in what he does as head coach of this football program and now that he has had Craddock a full season as the backup, I think the two are going to connect nicely and make some things happen this season.
The Florida Atlantic Owls are coming off a 5-7 season in 2006 and that followed a 2-9 season the year before. Now I know they have a lot of guys coming back from last year's team but can someone tell me what the point is of bringing back guys if they can't really play football anyways? We get to once again see our friend Howard Schnellenberger run this team for the seventh straight season and let me tell you something. Since joining the Division I-A ranks, Schnellenberger has coached this team in 35 games and only 5 of their 16 wins with him as head coach have come at home. I don't know what to say about that but I don't think it's wise to have money on a team that has never ever covered as a home favorite. The Owls are also 1-5 in their last six home openers with their only win coming against a Division II school named Southern Utah or something and if that's not pathetic im not too sure what is. Despite what this team can do on defense (which is not much but I had to say something nice), their offense is as anemic as it gets. They averaged only 15.1 points per game last season and 13.5 points per game the season before so why would things change against the best defense in this Conference? Middle Tennessee are specialists in several different defensive categories. Florida Atlantic QB Rusty Smith is going to be playing hurt so Middle Tennessee is sure to pressure him and hope he makes as many mistakes as he did last year when he tossed 8 interceptions. The best DB in this Conference is Middle Tennessee's Damon Nickson who had 5 inteceptions last season and who is sure to have one in this game if Smith tries to do too much. When the Owls want to run the ball they'll be in equal trouble since they averaged only 2.9 yards per carry last season and basically return some of the same guys as last year. With one of the best D's in the conference, Florida Atlantic might win a few more games but it won't come against Middle Tennessee who are one step ahead of them on that side of the ball.
The last two times these teams have met, it hasn't even been close and the Blue Raiders have walked all over Schnelly's guys. The score was actually 35-14 both times (home and away wins for the Blue Raiders) which is why I don't understand how things could have changed overnight for both programs. They haven't. Despite making strides in the right direction (well sorta) this Florida Atlantic team is a great example of Division I-A futility and they are not about to win games just like that because they have a lot of returning starters. Despite all the problems Middle Tennessee might have on the offensive end of things, they have a top notch defense that has quite a few NFL caliber prospects (seniors at that) and I wouldn't be surprised if they were the story of this game. The Owls have never covered the spread or won as home favorites and again I don't know why that would change in this game.
Trend of the Game: Florida Atlantic is 0-4 ATS lifetime as a home favorite.
Middle Tennessee 16, Florida Atlantic 6
Texas Christian Horned Frogs -21 (1 Unit)
So the word on the street is that Baylor went 4-8 last season but still had a succesful season. Well if that's what people want to call it go ahead because I call it borderline pathetic and I think they are going to sink even further this year with only 11 starters back from last year. The Bears, in my mind at least, are not a Big 12 worthy team and anyone who wants to take them because you feel a Big 12 school should not be getting disrespected by this many points against the Mountain West, is in for a nasty surprise. With so many players gone and with 32 lettermen lost from last season Baylor is in complete re-build mode right now and that is going to make it tough for these guys to get some wins let alone some covered spreads. They are 12-20 ATS as away underdogs the last seven seasons and Guy Morris has never really had this program on the ups. This is quite the game for Baylor since both schools are in Texas and since both are old rivals but like I said before, they just don't have the tools to make this game interesting. The Bears have only one QB worth mentioning on their depth chart and that is because he had a bit of playing time last year but tossed 7 interceptions in only 121 pass attempts and that's not even the projected starters for this team. He is injured for this game and won't play meaning that brand new spick and span QB has to play his first game Fort Worth nuthouse. On the ground the Bears lost their leading rusher and only bright spot on the offense as Paul Mosley and his 4.8 yards per carry are gone and need to be replaced. Well that won't be so easy in this game and I say that because TCU has one of the best defenses in this Country and I just don't see how Baylor is going to manage more than 3-6 points in this game. You can't run or pass on TCU as they allowed only 12.3 points per game last season and return 9 starters on defense this season. That's just freak nasty right there. Baylor are returning only 4 starters on offense and once again re-building against TCU just does not cut it because this defense is lights out and they allowed more than 14 points only once at home last season. The Bears might get lucky with a field goal or two but that's about it for them in this game.
The TCU Horned Frogs are going to most definitely make some noise in the Mountain West and quite possibly in the BCS if things come down to it in the end. Sure they have some tough opponents and sure they have the pressure of building on their 11-2 season from 2006 but Gary Patterson is ready to take on the world and that project starts at home against the hapless Baylor Bears. TCU lost a lot on offense from their 29.2 points per game last season but that doesn't mean that guys can't be replaced. TCU has won their last five home openers, winning them by an average scoring margin of 13 points and although that's not good enough to cover the spread in this game, I think this is their easiest Division I-A home opening opponent in a long time. The biggest loss for TCU is QB Jeff Ballard who leaves this school as one of the all-time favorites and who leaves after passing for 2394 total yards, 13 touchdowns, only 5 interceptions while at the same time rushing for 423 yards, 8 touchdowns and 3.8 yards per carry in 2006. So in comes QB Marcus Jackson who faced Baylor in last year's meeting and who won Mountain West PLAYER OF THE WEEK. He is not as good as Ballard on the ground but he completed 59.1% of his passes last season for 386 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Despite the possible early game struggles of Jackson, TCU can rely on RB Aaron Brown who is back again this year after rushing for 801 yards last season, 9 touchdowns and 5.2 yards per carry. There is no doubt in my mind he is going to reach the 100 rushing yards plateau in this game and no doubt going to hit 1000 by the end of the season. Baylor is horrendous on all sides of the defense and no matter how much they try, they won't keep this surgning TCU offense out of the endzone. I mean common, Baylor allowed 32.6 points per game in 2006 and their defense is going to be out there most of the game after the offense gives em some three and outs.
This is an old battle of Texas rivals who had not played against each other in a long time. TCU is definitely one of my picks for possible BCS busting teams that may sneak into one of the big Bowl Games depending on what they can do against teams like Texas and some of their conference opponents. Baylor is in complete rebuild mode and even at that, they have never been good as road underdogs the last seven seasons. TCU on the other hand is 19-13 ATS the last seven season as a home favorite and with so much fire power on both offense and defense, they will probably control the time of possession more than anything in this game and that usually leads to one team blowing out another. Baylor lost their last three road games last season by 22, 34 and 42 points last season and they come into this game with less experience than the guys who were part of those blowouts. TCU should get the ball rolling early in this game and I won't lie when I say I think they blow the snot out of them.
Trend of the Game: TCU is 12-2 in their last 14 games as the favorite.
Texas Christian 42, Baylor 6
Toledo Rockets +6.5 (5 Units)
Can we laugh now or can we laugh later at this posted line. So you are telling me that a Curtis Painter led team is about to walk into the Glass Bowl and win this game as a favorite of this many points? Oh cmon guys lets get real here. Purdue is coming off a decent 8-6 season that was capped off by a blowout loss in the Champs Sports Bowl against Maryland and believe me when I say that coming off Bowl losses is not fun, specially when you have to play on the road. Joe Tiller is now in his 11th season as the head coach of this football team and for those who don't know, his first ever game as the head coach was in this stadium and it was a 36-22 loss to the powerful Toledo Rockets. Purdue has however been a very good season opening team as they have won 7 of their last 8 season openers and look to do the same here. Some people are going to be impressed with the 18 total starters returning to the Boilermakers this season but they are going to be missing their leading tackler Dan Bick for this game which may make things a bit more complicated. Toledo's defense had an off year last year as they allowed 27.7 points per game but they return 8 starters on that side of the ball and six of their top seven tacklers are back in action. One thing you don't want to do is throw up some meat balls against this team. The Rockets one of the best secondaries in the MAC and they are even tougher at home. That's bad news Painter and company as the third year QB has threw 19 interceptions last season. Running on the Rockets is a better idea and I think Kory Sheets is probably going to have an easy time moving the chains. The only problem for this offense is that they may not be on the field long enough to make some big plays. The Purdue defense has been shaddy at best the last few years and I don't trust them one bit in this type of shootout affaire. My only concern with this team is that they are only 8-10-2 ATS the last seven seasons when the away favorite and although it's a familiar role, it's also a rare one and now they have to win in one of the toughest environments in college football. Painter does make a lot of mistakes and with the intensity of this game and the speed of this game, I think he mistakes will be fatal and the Boilermakers might lose their opener.
The Toledo Rockets, scandalous or not, are one of the best home teams in all of college football. Since the arrival of head coach Tom Astutz seven years ago, only four teams have ever won in the Glass Bowl and 30 teams have left with a loss in the loss column. That means Astutz is 30-4 in home games as the head coach of this football team and you can bet your bottom dollar the house is going to be full for this one. I know Toledo is only 4-11 lifetime versus teams from the Big 10 but they have two wins and only loss against Purdue since 1992 and this is the one Big 10 team they have been able to beat. Seeing how this is one of the best college football home teams, would it be safe to assume that the scandalous accusations around this football program have something to do with the out of character two home losses for this team last year? I mean for a team that had won so many home games, losing by 22 to Central Michigan and by 3 against Ball State is just a tad weird. What you need to know about Toledo and their 5-7 record last year is that they lost 31 starts to injuries which means 31 times a starter had to miss a game because he was incapable of playing. Now that everyone is healthy you can expect the most out of this sometimes explosive team. I don't know that I trust the QB's on this team but I can't say that I trust Curtis Painter anymore than these guys anyways. Despite returning a lot of players on defense this season, Purdue still allowed a whopping 4.9 yards per carry last season and the personel has not changed enough to improve. That means RB Jalen Parmele, who rushed for 1131 yards (8 touchdowns and 5.5 yards per carry in 2006) is going to run the offense and probably open things up for the quarterbacks to make some plays downfield. Parmele is a very strong runner who should make the Purdue defense look terrible, like so many RB's were able to do last year. Tom Astutz is not about to have another sub 30.0 point per game season (he had never had one prior to last year) so expect Toledo to be firing all weapons at this revamped Purdue defense early in the game. He knows how to run an offense and if he has his way, Toledo is going to continuously put pressure on Purdue to score. The Rockets are 19-10 ATS as home favorites the last seven seasons and even if this turns into a shootout, they have all the guys necessary to activate their weapons. I think Toledo opens some eyes this season.
We all know that Toledo is under a very watchful eye after reports that they have fixed basketball and football matches. However, I don't see that having any effect on either teams players because in the end it was probably one or two bad apples that were involved and Toledo has a lot to prove this season. The Glass Bowl has become an impossible place to play in despite holding less than most Division I-A stadiums (ranks #111). Purdue is one of those teams and Joe Tiller is one of those coaches that should never lay chalk in road games, let alone in a place where he has been blown out before and let alone against one of the best home teams in college football. Like I said, this line is a complete joke and I don't know where people come from thinking Purdue has a chance to win by a touchdown. Their defense is not good enough yet at this point in the season to contain Parmele and their offense, although they will score, is too mistake prone to keep things interesting. I think Toledo wins this game straight up.
Trend of the Game: Toledo is 30-4 SU at home with Tom Astutz as head coach.
Toledo 38, Purdue 31
Minnesota Golden Gophers -14 (1 Unit)
The Bowling Green Falcons are not the old Bowling Green team we saw go 8-3 in 2001, 9-3 in 2002, 10-3 in 2003 and 8-3 in 2004. Nope...not even close and that is why I am going to continue to fade the team that went 3-9 ATS last season and 6-17 ATS combined the last two seasons. The Falcons have won some season opening road games against Big 10 opponents in the past but like I have already mentioned, that was the Bowling Green days of old and now the era of suck has begun. I don't know how much longer they want to hold on to Gregg Brandon as head coach but regardless he has to start winning again or his name is going to be mentioned with the 'Who will be fired first' crowd. The Falcons do have 15 starters back and some of their units did play well late in the 2006 season but this task might be a bit too much. You can expect a lot more scoring from this Bowling Green team seeing how almost every member of the offense is back. But how much do you trust guys returning from a team that scored only 19.5 points per game last season and who have to kickoff their season on the Big 10 road? Minnesota, although they sucked in 2006, have brought in some new personnel to shake things up and improve on their not so bad defense that allowed 26.0 points per game last season. The new Defensive Coordinator is from the Tennessee Titans and I think he can really turn things around here. My issue with Bowling Green is not that they don't have potential to once again score a lot of points and cover the spread in games like this but it's more that Minnesota has too many returning weapons on their defense and that should force a lot of Bowling Green turnovers. I mean if you look at all the guys back on this defense you have a total of 14 interceptions, 20.5 sacks and a whole bunch of tacklers including five of the top six. So I know Bowling Green is going to have success on offense at some point this season but I just don't think they'll do enough in this game to keep it close.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers come into this game with a new set of legs. By new set of legs I mean an entire changeup of the coaching staff and that can only do this program some good. Sure coach Mason did a lot for this team but in the end his failure to win more than 7 games in the last who knows how many years was too much for the brass to handle and they decided it was time to somewhere else. So in they brought Tim Brewster who was the Denver Bronco's TE coach but who also has coaching experience under Mack Brown and who captained Illinois to a Rose Bowl win many years ago. Minnesota was always about some hardcore power running when Mason was in charge but I think they are changing things up to a more spread approach this season which should do them a bit of good. The more open style of passing should let the new QB work himself in quite nicely. If QB Adam Weber is the starter in this game he would fit the mold perfectly because he is very mobile and the spread offense will allow him to do pretty much anything he wants. Apparently he rushed for 1519 yards in High School two years ago and had almost 5000 passing yards while at. Don't forget this offense also has RB Amir Pinnix who rushed for 1272 yards last season with 10 touchdowns and 5.0 yards per carry. This team has four guys returning who rushed for more than 4.0 yards per carry. Against most big name programs this team is going to struggle but against a team like Bowling Green who have probably the worst defensive line in the MAC, the Gophers should be able to run up the score. We saw what Rutgers did to Buffalo's weak defensive line in their opener and im telling you that Bowling Green's D-Line is just as bad if not worse than Buffalo's. The bottom line here is that no matter how poorly they play in Big 10 action, Minnesota has always been a team that blows non-conference opponents out of the water at home in early season games and they are 18-11 ATS the last seven season as a home favorite. I have no problems backing them despite the lack of experience at the QB position...I think this is a blowout.
Want some stats on this one? Well Minnesota is 24-2-1 SU versus curent MAC Conference opponents which means they usually win big. I also found out that Minnesota has won 12 straight home openers and they have won those games by an average margin of 31 points per game. So if that's any indication of what is about to come in this game, I am licking my chops and getting ready to watch the wind blow over this Bowling Green. Like I said, the Falcons will be better this season but they wont be good enough early on and they certainly wont be good enough in this kind of atmosphere with such mediocrity on defense. Minnesota has some new players to work in but they will always have some outstanding players who can run the ball and that bodes well against one of the worst run defense teams in the Country. I think this game gets out of hand by halftime and I don't think Bowling Green will ever come close to covering this game in the second half.
Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.
Minnesota 48, Bowling Green 10
Arizona State Sun Devils -15 (1 Unit)
The San Jose State Spartans were everyone's little darling last year because they made each and everyone of us some cash at some point with their 8-3 ATS mark. Only problem with that is that repeating that feat is going to be next to impossible this season and I don't think they are going to intimidate a team like Arizona State. Despite playing really well against Washington in their road opener as +20 points underdogs last season, San Jose State is still 2-16 in their last 18 road openers and they are still the same program that Arizona State recently blew out of the water 53-15 in 2001. Dick Tomey spoke this week about this being his best team since his arrival at San Jose State but once again that doesn't always mean the team will win. The Spartans have a nice number of starters returning this season as they bring back 15 starters on both sides of the ball and could easily match last year's offensive and defensive outputs. The only issue I have with this team is that although QB Adam Tafralis was pretty damn good last season with his 21 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions, he doesn't have a single familiar face to throw the ball too this season. If it wasn't for Tarfalis and his ability to spread the ball around for 2284 yards, the Spartans would not have won nine games. So now that all three of his top receivers are gone, I think his numbers are going to sink and the Spartans will suffer from this. The three departed receivers had combined for 1700+ receiving yards and a combined 18 touchdowns for this offense. In what we already know is going to be a high scoring affaire, San Jose State will need all the weapons they can handle seeing how their running game is just as good as it was last year but that's because the pass game had to be respected. Arizona State does not have a strong defense at all but in a shootout, I don't think the Spartans have enough weapons to make a difference. It's going to be tough for them to keep up with a high powered offense like the Sun Devils but the Spartans can absolutely do it. However, this is a very tough place to play in and with the new coaching staff and with the atmosphere around campus, I dont think San Jose State is ready to shoot things out with the Sun Devils as much as they were ready to mix it up with Washington last year. Good Luck to them but my money is against this team that is 16-22 ATS as an away underdog the last seven seasons...not good enough for me.
The Arizona State Sun Devils begin the Dennis Erickson era in this game and from what I hear this could one of their best eras in a long time. Coach Koetter just wasn't getting the job done on either side of the ball and it was time he moved on to something else. The Sun Devils are not to be doubted this season, its more like they are to be feared with Erickson as head coach. I say that because he is a winner when given talent to work with and he has proven that time and time again by leading several teams and earning a 148-65-1 college football coaching record. You can't really argue with that and I think some of the players on the Sun Devils are excited to have him around. The offense has 9 starters back from the team last year and my favorite part about that is that seeing how they are almost all upper-classmen, they must really want to have one more big season with the new head coach before they move onto other things. The key to this game is going to be to have everyone on the same page as Erickson and usually when you have upper-classmen to work with, that tends to happen a lot quicker. QB Rudy Carpenter is ready to once again sling mud with other teams as he is back with his 2523 passing yards and 23 passing touchdowns. Also back are RB Ryan Torain who rushed for 1229 yards, 7 touchdowns and 5.5 yards per carry. Also back are six receivers who had 10 or more catches which is good despite the loss of Tight End Zach Miller who has moved on to the NFL. San Jose State's defense allowed only 20.8 points per game last season but that's going to be hard to duplicate. They did allow 35 points against Washington and 34 points against Stanford, the only two PAC 10 teams they had to face all season so expect the Sun Devils to score at least that many. I think they key to the offense will be to work on the Spartans linebackers who are not only really mismatched in this game but are also undersized and not capable of covering extra receivers on the wide spread. The more the Sun Devils can move the chains with 10-12 yard passes, the more they have a chance of really opening things up and keeping this defense on their toes, which means they will tire fast. I really like Arizona State under Erickson and I think most people are going to see why I backed them in this spot.
Despite what some people think about both programs and the directions they are heading, one thing remains for sure and that is that Arizona State is going to play their balls off in their home opener like they almost always do. Erickson is not afraid to open up this offense and the Sun Devils have now won 8 straight home openers and not only have they won them but they have won them by an average margin of 26.0 points per game which is pretty damn good considering this spread. I know Rudy Carpenter has a problem with making erratic throws (14 interceptions last season) but Erickson is going to keep things simple and probably approach this game with blowout in his mind. As long as the defense can hold their own and get Tarfalis mixed up with his brand spanking new receiving corps, the Sun Devils should have no problems taking a big first half lead and running off to what has become an annual opening night blowout for them in home games.
Trend of the Game: Arizona State is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games as a double digit favorite.
Arizona State 48, San Jose State 21
WEEKLY RECAP
UL Monroe +3
Mississippi State +18.5
Syracuse +3.5
Alabama-Birmingham +21.5
Connecticut -4
Wyoming +3
Nebraska -21
Memphis +3
Middle Tennesse +2
Texas Christian -21
Toledo +6.5
Minnesota -14
Arizona State -15
0-2 ATS this week with these pendings
<!-- / message -->
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 0-2 (-8.80.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. I decided before this season started that my ultimate goal would be profit and not showcasing. That is probably going to eliminate the possibility of me having 50 unit plays like last season (they are silly but fun) and I don't know that they go down very well in a serious community like this one. Anyways, best of luck to all this upcoming season, let's have some fun and keep sharing information.
*I think my approach to the first week was a bit off after the first night so I have decided not to place some of the wagers I had originally posted and have decided to keep some of them and bet on some new ones. Here is my new gig for the first week. My record is up-to-date and these are the picks I am playing this weekend. Nothing else. This is a one week thing.
-----------------------------------------
Friday, August 31
Syracuse Orangemen +3.5 (10 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Washington Huskies are going to be a much better team this season than the 5-7 Huskies we saw last season because this is Ty Willingham's third season here and third seasons are when head coaches start to make noise or progress with a program. However, I have to warn you right now, and I don't know why this would change, that since joining this team two season ago Willingham has won only three games on the road. As a matter of fact the Huskies are 4-17 away from home the last five seasons and they now have the pleasure of kicking off their season on the road versus a home team that no matter how shitty they are, have a bigger home field advantage than many other teams. The Huskies are going to start redshirted freshman QB Jake Locker tonight who is apparently already a superstar in Seattle but im not convinced that he can come out East and play the game of his life. I mean this is his very first career college football start and it comes the Carrier Dome which has seen the home underdog cover 9 of the last 14 games as exactly that, a home underdog. Locker is a dual threat QB who has the opportunity to do anything he wants tonight as long as he doesn't make mistakes. Syracuse's defense is borderling horrendous (dead last in the Big East in almost every category talent wise). Syracuse allowed 4.8 yards per carry on the ground in 2006 so I think we are going to see a lot of running by Locker in this game. The only issue is that Syracuse returns quite a few guys who can pick passes off (returning defensive players had 11 interceptions combined in 2006) and with the inexperience of the new QB, I think the Orangemen can force some turnovers in this game. Regardless of how their defense plays, I don't think Washington is going to be effective enough on offense to grab a comfortable lead and even at that, they could quite possibly be playing from behind most of this game. They do have that QB that could make some things happen but in the end they're just too brutal on the road.
The Syracuse Orangemen have been picked by many to finish dead last in the Big East (which is not saying much considering some of the teams at the bottom of this pile) but that doesn't mean it will necessiraly happen. I know they have the least amount of returning starters in the Big East with 12 guys back from last year and I know Greg Robinson's job is on the line if this team doesn't come out of the gates and win at least three of their first five games so expect them to be ready tonight. Syracuse has struggled badly in previous home openers (the last five years have been a disaster) but I do like the fact that PAC 10 schools have a lot of problems when they play in the Carrier Dome as the PAC 10 is only 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played in Syracuse. I'm not looking at how the Orange defense is going to do in this game because the defesive side of things is going to be dictated by the offensive side of things and for some reason I think the Orange offense is going to surprised quite a few people in this game. QB Andrew Robinson is another first time starter (much like Loker) but he has attempted 8 passes and rushed for 45 on nine attempts. You had to be impressed by Robinson when he came in against Rutgers last season for the first time and led them on an 80 yard touchdown drive. The biggest weakness on the Washington defense (and there are many) is defintiely their secondary. That gets me excited because WR's Taj Smith and Mike Williams are both in the TOP 10 receivers for the Big East and both averaged more than 18.0 yards per catch last season. The Huskies are completely hopeless and undersized against both of these guys and I don't doubt for a minute that Syracuse can pound the ball deep or short up the middle and get some big yardage plays in this game. I know Robinson is not battle tested but he is lucky that another first time starter is on the other side of the ball and I actually think Robinson will be the better looking QB of the two in this game.
The bottom line here is that playing the Carrier Dome is tough. However, this is one of the most winnable games all year for Syracuse as they face a PAC 10 team coming from out West who are starting a young prodigy QB for the first time ever. Well the Orange have somewhat of a future star starting for them as well as he is actually a bit more seasoned (8 pass attemps) than the Washington quarterback who has never played a single down in college football. If you don't believe me that this place is tough to play in just look at Syracuse's 29-12 ATS record in their last 41 home games (over the last seven seasons) and that tells the story. Also keep in mind that Washington is one of the worst road teams in the entire country and I just don't understand why people think they will win when they have won only 4 of their last 21 road games.
Trend of the game: The PAC 10 is only 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played in the Carrier Dome.
Syracuse 31, Washington 16
Saturday, September 1
Alabama-Birmingham Blazers +21.5 (3 Units)
The Alabama-Birmingham Blazers are coming off a 3-9 season that saw them reach futile numbers in several offensive and defensive categories. Can they get any worse? Im not too sure and I would like to think no. However, since starting football operations back in 1991, UAB has managed to win only once when playing their first road game of the season so you can forget about any kinds of upsets happening in this bad boy. You don't really need an upset though to cover the spread in a game. We are talking about a team that could quite possibly win only one or two games this season seeing how they were horrendous in 2006 while returning 12 starters on both sides of the ball so how the hell are they gonna manage now that they are returning only 8 total combined starters on both sides of the ball? Well I don't know that it will be much different from last year. Neil Callaway takes over this team, making his first ever college football start as a head coach and although he has never coached at this level, I think he can brings a bit of energy to this team. With Florida State waiting in the horizon next week, I am pretty sure that this football program is going to want to get some kinks out of the way in a leadup to their September 15 real season debut (when they get to face Alcorn State in their home opener). The Blazers are renovating their entire offense and moving into a pro-style attack even though they are missing several key piece of the puzzle to pull the move off. Michigan State, sucked ass on defense last year and is returning only 6 starters on the defensive side of things and it's gonna take a whole lot more than Mark Dantonio's arrival to change things on that side of the ball. UAB are not about to unload on Michigan State but they are going to score the 7-10 points required to probably cover this spread and not many people are giving them a chance here. For those of you who don't remember, this UAB team was picked as one of the trash teams last year as well but they came out in their road opener and almost beat the #10 Oklahoma Sooners who much like Michigan State in this game, were breaking in a new quarterback and it cost them in the end. There may not be much life in the betting world for this UAB team but the last seven seasons they have gone 17-12 ATS as road underdogs and that tells me that oddsmakers have never really known how to approach this kind of team.
The Michigan State Spartans are ready to begin the Mark Dantonio era after he came swooping over here all the way from Cincinnati. One thing we already know about Dantonio from his days back at Ohio State is that he likes to win, he likes to make things simple and he doesn't back down from anybody. Some of you will probably be scared away from betting such a large spread on the Spartans opening home game because of their 10 point win last season as -29 point underdogs against Idaho and because of their failure to cover the double digit spread against Central Michigan in the home opener the year before. Well at first it didn't bother me but the more I capped this game, the more I realized that it's going to take a lot more than just one game for things to change in East Lansing. When new coaching staffs with as much experience as Dantonio has, step into a new program, they usually want to make a statement and they usually want to show the hometown fans that the signing was worthy and that this is a season to look forward to. That is very true but you also have to consider that this can lead to some bad calls and some timely mistakes. I am kind of excited to see QB Brian Hoyer take over for the departed Drew Stanton because this Michigan State team just can't get any worse than the 4-8 they were last year and they can only improve on the 3-8-1 ATS mark they were labeled with in 2006. Hoyer has a very strong arm and has enough experience to lead this team to big things. He has appeared in 13 games over the last two years passing for 6 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and 1000+ yards which is not bad for a guy learning the ropes. Javon Ringer only managed 86 rush attempts last season but he rushed for 497 yards in those attempts for 1 touchdowns and 5.8 yards per carry. Now that things are back to normal, I think he is going to be the star on this team and I think he is going to get his fair share of yardage in this game. UAB stands no chance of stopping anyone on the ground in this game but if they can force Michigan State to run run and run the ball some more, they'll have a chance to make some plays in the air and possibly bother the new QB. UAB have only 4 starters back on defense and after allowing 4.3 yards per carry last season with 7 starters back on defense, this team is in huge trouble when it comes to stopping the run. Michigan State is a team I originally liked in this matchup because it seems like they like to play for Mark Dantonio but then again I asked myself when the last time was that I saw a Michigan State blow opponents away at home this early in the season and nothing really comes to mind.
I have to admit my original lean and posted pick/writeup for this game was on Michigan State to win in a blowout. But after a dismal opening night of capping, I went back to the drawing board and look at some key factors that have made me succesful capping college football in the past. Michigan State has won 8 straight home openers and they have done it by an average of 18.0 points per game but those 18 points don't do the job when it comes to covering this spread and the Spartans are actually only 11-20 ATS the last seven season as the home favorite in a game. I know Dantonio is going to do some good things here in East Lansing but I got a bit too excited about this team and I forgot that they are young and working with a new head coach who is probably going to do a lot better against some of the big name teams than he is in games like this. I was on Michigan State to begin with but now I really like the UAB Blazers who look too down and out to compete but who will probably have the opportunity to make some plays with their new QB.
Trend of the Game: Michigan State is 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games as a favorite.
Michigan State 34, Alabama-Birmingham 20
Wyoming Cowboys +3 (1 Unit)
The Virginia Cavaliers are notoriously known to suck ass on the road and that is one of the main reasons I am going to fade them in this spot. The Cavaliers come into this game off a 5-7 season which ended up being their first non-winning season since 2001. Al Groh determined to turn this program around but I find it hard to believe he can get things going in this game seeing how Virginia is 1-9 in their last 10 away games and they have lost those games by an average of 10 points per game. I know he has a huge amount of starters back on this team (I think it's 19 returning starters if combined the offense and the defense) but that doesn't always guarantee results. In 2003 Virginia had 15 starters return to this team but still got blown out in their first road game of the season against South Carolina. Making things even sadder is the fact that Virginia has not scored a point on the road since sometime mid-October last year when they dropped 21 on East Carolina in a 31-21 loss. After that they put up big fat goose eggs at Florida State and Virginia Tech. Make no mistake about it, Wyoming's defense is by no means great but they did allow only 22.0 points per game last season and they do return five starters on defense and 44 lettermen on the whole team. The secondary is very strong on this team and running up the middle and breaking secondary tackles is impossible at times. Regardless of how well RB Jameel Sowell played as a freshman last year, the Cavaliers don't really have a rushing threat now that Jason Snelling and his 772 rushing yards, 4.2 yards per carry are gone. His replacements all failed to crack the 3.5 yards per carry barrier last season. Cedric Peerman is not a great replacement and I expect Virginia to have problems moving the ball (whats new?) in this game. Sowell is still young and learning and starting off his season on the road is not the best of things. They do have a very good and experienced offensive line but what good is that if you don't have the backfield to exploit other teams? The only hope is for Sowell to have a huge game both on the ground and in the air but like I mentioned before, his youth and inexperience on the road is a big concern for me and I don't think Wyoming is going to let him run the show this time around.
The Wyoming Cowboys come into this game off a 6-6 season that saw them flirt with their first seven win season in a very long time. I don't know that they can be as good as they were in 2006 but I do know that War Memorila Stadium is going to be rocking for this game and I remember from past years that this is not a place opposing teams want to play in come opening day. I say that because Wyoming is 12-1 SU since 1994 in home openers with the average margin of victory being 21 points per game which is impressive. I know the Cowboys have not averaged 30 points per game in a very long time but this could be the season where they come close to cracking the barrier and I actually like this year's offense a lot better than the one they had out there last year. They bring back QB Karsten Sween who completed 60.4% of his passes as a freshman for 1304 yards and 9 touchdowns. Also back are RB's Wynel Seldon and Devin Moore who both combined to rush for 1184 yards last season and who both are threats on the ground. Virginia has 10 starters back on defense but they are still to ineffective offensively to give their defense the breaks they need to recover from long defensive stops. The Cowboys are probably going to have to ask Karsten Sween to with short passes and quick releases because we all know the Cavs are going to come at him hard and we all know the only weakness in this Mike Breske defense is probably their secondary which I expect WR Michael Ford is going to be able to exploit in this game. Virginia allowed only 17.8 points per game in 2006 and with so many guys back they are going to be tough to beat. However, the energy and excitement of the new season is definitely going to benefit Wyoming in this game and I say that because it's rare that ACC come to Mountain West houses and when they do come their track record is not all that good. That's probably because the altitude here is so high and teams from the East find it very difficult to adjust having only been in town for a few days. I don't know how effective Wyoming can be on offense but I think as long as they can protect Sween and get him to work on some of the young corners, they should have no problems coming out on top in this game.
We all remember the matchup last year when Wyoming went to Charlottesville and almost pulled off the upset in overtime losing 13-12 in dramatic fashion. That loss is most definitely still fresh on their minds and seeing how Virginia is only 6-8 ATS as a road favorite the last seven season, I think the revenge angle has a lot more steam than some people may think. Wyoming on the other hand is 12-8-1 ATS over the last seven years when they have been tagged with the home underdog status and that tells me that although this is not a tough place to play, the Cowboys love playing for something at home and it's worth nothing that head coach Joe Glenn has a losing record overall during his time at Wyoming but the Cowboys are 14-9 at home during that time span. I would never go against a team that has won 12 of their last 13 home openers and I would never bet on a team like Virginia who have a good defense but who don't have good offense to compliment that D and that will ultimately cost them the game. Two young QB's at work in a rematch from last year...gimme the home dog here.
Trend of the Game: Wyoming is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Connecticut Huskies -4 (3 Units)
So whats the deal with the UConn Huskies anyways? Well from that I can tell they are not too often named road favorites in season opening games and it may come as no surprise to anyone that this team is coming off a 4-8 season last year. However, it immediately has to be noted (because too many people are overlooking this), that UConn lost 44 starts to injuries last season which was amongst the leaders in the Country for games lost due to injuries. So you can only imagine that with 14 starters back on both sides of the ball combined that this team will ressemble the 7-4 squad of 2004 a lot more than they do the 2005 and 2006 losing season teams. The most important aspect of this game is going to be the ability to avoid the inevitable and that is that Duke has to win a game sooner or later. I know the Huskies have had problems on offense the last two seasons and that is probably why they have been losing seasons but this year they bring back their outstanding leading rusher RB Donald Brown who ran for 896 yards last season with 7 touchdowns and a very impressive 5.6 yards per carry. Duke linebacker Michael Tauiliili led the Blue Devils in tackles the last few seasons and he is suspended for this game so expect some holes to be wide open for Brown. Also, the team now has a true QB so DJ Hernandez can go back to playing his position of WR. The new QB is JUCO transfer Tyler Lorenzen who passed for 2960 yards, completed 69% of his passes for 26 touchdowns and 3 interceptions while also rushing for 836 yards in 2006. Now that's impressive and much needed for this offense. Duke is dead last in the ACC in just about every defensive category so I think UConn is going to have an easy time moving the ball around and I think they are going to rush for 300+ yards in this game. Three of the top four receivers from 2006 are also back this season and that should let Lorenzen air the ball out on some play action whenever Duke gets too caught up trying to stop Donald Brown from rushing for 200+ yards in this game. Randy Edsall always has his guys ready to play on the road as favorites as the Huskies are 6-3 ATS the last seven seasons when favored on the road. I don't expect them to slow down for a team that has yet to win.
The Duke Blue Devils are coming off another 0-12 season last year and they have now lost 20 straight games and are reaching new futility highs for college football. A lot of experts are calling for the streak to come to an end in this game but something tells me that that won't be the case and that Duke is going to look like they have the last God knows how many seasons now. The Blue Devils have not been kind to bettors backing them as home underdogs as they are 13-22 ATS as home dogs the last seven seasons and they have been a much better bet when they are 30-40 points underdogs on the road and not at home. I mean Wallace Wade Stadium has some crazy fans but I don't know that they can make enough noise for anyone to notice in this game. The Blue Devils are probably going to win their first game against...nobody. They have the 9th toughest schedule in the Country and head coach Ted Roof is not about to improve on his 5-34 mark as the head coach of this team. Yes the motivation is going to be high in this game because it is their only winnable game on the schedule this season but you have to be crazy to believe it. They do have the advantage of bringing back 11 starters on offense which is the most in the ACC but their only hope is that QB Thaddeus Lewis has a monster game and that he is able to connect with all his returning receivers from last season. UConn allowed 27.0 points per game in 2006 which is very strange and unusual for a team that has prided itself on playing solid defense since joining the Big East. You have to keep in mind that this was the result of so many injuries on defense and that everyone is back. Since we already know that UConn can stop the run a lot better this year than they did last year, it will be up to the secondary to make things happen. Todd Orlando (the DC at UConn) has done a tremendous job the last few years given the kind of talent he has been presented with so expect him to do a much better job than last year. Lewis the QB at Duke threw 16 interceptions and only 11 touchdown passes in 2006 as a freshman which is not bad but not good either. It's gonna take a lot for this offense to improve on their 14.9 points per game last season. Despite having their highest point outputs come at home against weaker opponents, Duke also allowed some big time yardage and big time points at home and were a -8 in the turnovers in 2006.
Without their defensive leader, the Duke Blue Devils are screwed because Connecticut is going to pound away on the ground and they are going to pound away with some very strong runners. Tauiliili being suspended is as bad as it gets for Duke because he led these guys the last two season and now they have to fall back on younger characters. I have to once again mention that Duke seems to play a lot better as a road underdog than they do a home underdog as they have covered only 13 of 35 games as a home underdog over the last seven season and 21 of 37 games as a road underdog the last seven seasons. Duke might score enough points to make this interesting but in the end they just won't have what it takes to get the job done on both sides of the ball and UConn is going to look like the team that scored 30+ points per game in their first year of Big East play.
Trend of the Game: Duke is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog.
Connecticut 34, Duke 24
Nebraska Cornhuskers -21 (1 Unit)
The Nevada Wolfpack have been one of the best money making options over the last few seasons as they have covered 17 of their last 22 games on the ATS front and that makes them an attracting wager here. However, all those games were with senior and now departed QB Jeff Rowe. I read somewhere that although one of Chris Ault's most inexperienced teams ever with only 12 returning starters this season, Ault is the most impressed by the willingness to succeed some of these guys are showing. That stems from the 'Nevada Run' which is a gruelling run that every player has to participate in before the season starts and for the very first time Chris Ault's 23 years as the head coach of this team, every single player finished under the set time. That's dedication but dedication doesn't always turn into success. Replacing Rowe's 1907 passing yards and 17 touchdown passes is going to be next to impossible and I don't know how the Nevada offense is going to survive in this game. Expect both QB's Nick Graziano and Colin Kaepernick to see some time in this game. They are both fresh out of the gates but can both sling the ball downfield or run with it just as well. Nebraska's defensive line is one of the weakest in the Big 12 so I expect the Wolpack to slow this game down early, even if they go down by a touchdown or two, in hopes of letting their guys get comfortable with the system and letting their young QB work his thing out. RB's Luke Lippincott and Brandon Fagger are both back this season and they both averaged 4.9 yards per carry last season and scored 12 combined touchdowns in only 149 combined carries. With the threat of their QB's running and the threat of two good RB's, I think Nevada can do enough in this game to keep it close for the most part but in the end I don't think they can keep up with the pace of a high flying Nebraska offense. Most people are thinking that this is just way too many points to pass up on for a team that has covered so many games over the last few years but every team has to rebuild at some point. Nevada has a shaddy history of opening road games having lost 11 straight road openers by 23.0 points and im pretty sure that streak won't stop once they leave Lincoln later on today. Nevada won't win this game and I don't think it's even gonna be close.
The Nebraska Cornuskers and namely some of their players are going to be under an immense amount of pressure to blow this Nevada team out of the water. They had a similar WAC Conference opponent in Louisiana Tech last season and they killed them 49-10 to open the season. However, make no mistake about it, Louisiana Tech is not a well coached team while Nevada has one of the best coaches in the WAC Conference and good coaches know what to do to keep games from turning into blowouts like the game did last year. But I do like the fact that this is the big debut of Sam Keller, the disgruntled Arizona State transfer who sat out last year, and with his debut comes a ton of pressure on him to get things done. 2005 was the last time Keller stepped on any football field and made any kind of pass attempt and he could be rusty as hell coming out of the gates here. Not a problem. Gone is their leading rusher Brandon Jackson but that won't make a difference because his RB Marlon Lucky and RB Cody Glenn were just as effective and they are probably going to demolish Nevada's defensive front. Both guys combined for 1098 rushing yards as Brandon Jackson's backups and they also combined for a whopping14 touchdowns. In his seven Arizona State starts, Keller did complete only 59% of his passes and he did throw 9 interceptions to go along with his 20 touchdown passes but I think he is the right fit for this offense. Keller has several options and look for Nebraska to use a lot of run game to get him in the mood for some play action. It is very possible that Nebraska be looking ahead and very possible that they somewhat struggle against what I called an underrated Nevada defense but it's the Nevada offense that is going to make the mistakes that allow Nebraska to capitalize. The Cornuskers return only 11 starters on both sides of the ball combined and that's a big loss for them compared to the 15 they returned last year. Under Bill Callahan the Huskers are only 3-6 ATS as a home favorite when returning less than 15 starters from the year before but like I said before, I think Sam Keller is going to be just fine in this run-oriented offense and I think the run game is going to be strong enough to setup some big time plays in the air attack.
This is an interesting game. I was on Nevada at first but changed my mind and went with Nebraska after re-capping the game to a tee. The public will surely pound away on Nebraska thinking that Sam Keller is the next Zac Taylor but that might not be the case until a few games later in the season. This is by far the easiest game for Nebraska on their early schedule and that has me excited because they may very well try to keep things as simple as possible for Keller which means that they are going to have fun out there and points are surely to follow. Nevada has been a competitive team over the year but we all saw what the Cornhuskers did to another WAC Opponent (Louisiana Tech) in 2006 in their home opener and with another good QB coupled with a great running attack, we could very well see the same type of scoreline in this game.
Trend of the Game: Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
Nebraska 41, Nevada 10
Memphis Tigers +3 (5 Units)
The Ole Miss Rebels make the hike up to Memphis for this game coming off a 4-8 season and although this team has won seven games under third year head coach Ed Orgeron, they are only 1-9 SU under on the road with him controlling this team. I'm sorry but when teams can't win on the road there is no rhyme or reason for them to be favored in this game. These two teams opened the season against each other in 2006 as well and Ole Miss ended up winning by three points as a three point favorite. This is the return matchup now and you can expect the Tigers to be ready for some revenge. Ole Miss played a lot of true freshman last season with the hopes that they would be ready to go this year and only time will tell if that really made a difference or not. Ole Miss has rarely been favored on the road in the past and when they have, they have not done so well and gone 3-6-1 ATS as the road favorite. The Rebels come into this game with two capable and experience starting QB's but the numbers were not good for either player in 2006. Brent Schaeffer is the more talented of the two but he makes way too many mistakes and does not react well to pressure. Seth Adams on the other hand is more composed but has a lot less game experience. The offensive line for Ole Miss is pretty damn good but they have some serious issues with their QB's and luckily for them their RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis can motor his way down the field and possibly keep them in this game. Memphis allowed a whopping 30.4 points per game last season while returning only 5 defensive starters. However this time they have 8 guys back on defense and that should have them playing like they did 2005 when they allowed only 23.0 points while returning 7 starters. All-in-all, Ole Miss is going to have success running the ball but I think both their QB's are going to make way too many mistakes and in the end that is what will cost them this game.
The Memphis Tigers come into this game and this season off a pathetic 2-10 season last year but don't let that get you down because this is a team on the rise and with their 16 returning starters and 47 returning lettermen from last season, several experts are calling for this Tommy West led team to go back to their winning ways again this season. Memphis somehow managed to win only one home game in 2006 and it was against a Division II school early in the season. That is why I am happy that they get Ole Miss to kick the year off. This is a great revenge spot from their meeting last year where Memphis almost pulled off the win only to lose 28-25 at Ole Miss and I think Tommy West is going to have that particular game on their minds all weekend. With only 11 returning starters last season the Tigers had all sorts of problems on both sides of the ball but now that the team is more experienced, I fully expect them to rejoin the upper ranks of the Conference USA and look like the Memphis team that won eight games in both 2003 and 2004. QB Martin Hankins and his 2550 passing yards for 18 touchdowns is back and so are three of his top four receivers from last year. RB's Joseph Doss and Earnest Williams are also both back and ready to tear things up this season. Ole Miss has a strong defense last season but with only six returning starters I don't think they can match the 22.9 points per game they were allowing. Their LB's and their secondary are week which is why I think Hankins is going to have a field day airing the ball out and pounding away on the ground. As long as Memphis doesn't get caught sleeping on special teams. Ole Miss has one of the best ST units in college football and it's going to take some hard work for Memphis to pull this thing off.
This is the 57th all-time meeting between these two dirty south schools and it sure as hell wont be the last. Many Memphis backers are potentially going to be scared off by this game because out of those 56 career meetings between the two school, the Tigers have won only 10 of them and have not had much success against the Rebels. However, I really like the revenge spot from last year's season opener at Ole Miss and I think this experienced Memphis team is going to make some noise on offense and on defense reverting back to their 2003 and 2004 ground, pound and air things out kinda style. Memphis is 9-5 ATS the last seven seasons as the home underdog so this is a popular role for them while Ole Miss is 3-6-1 ATS the last seven seasons as the road favorite which also indicates that they do not react well to oddsmakers giving them an edge away from home.
Trend of the Game: Ole Miss is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 September games.
Memphis 34, Mississippi 26
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +2 (3 Units)
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders come into this game off a 7-6 season that saw them reach their first ever Bowl Game. I don't know the exact statistics on how teams reaching their first Bowl game do the next season but I do know that reaching a Bowl Game for the very first time is huge for any program and I would suspect that the Blue Raiders are pretty pumped up about the season. For anyone who doesn't follow the Sun Belt Conference, Middle Tennessee was 4-0 in conference away games last season and they won those games by an average margin of 23.0 points per game. So after coming so close to winning the Sun Belt Conference championship (they blew a big time lead to Troy late in the game and were sent packing with nothing), the Blue Raiders bring back 12 starters from last year's team and still have the best defense in the Conference. The only concern for Middle Tennesse right now is their lack of experience at the QB position. That's also why we probably have such a shaddy line this game. Last year's QB Clint Marks is gone and taking over is Joe Craddock who has virtually no gametime experience. However, I have a lot faith in the Middle Tennesse running attack that has two returning RB's who averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry last season and combined for 12 touchdowns despite playing second fiddle to Eugene Gross who is now gone. Florida Atlantic allowed 4.9 yards per carry in 2006 but they do have an improved defensive line and an improved linebacking corps which should somewhat help a bit. The only problem with Florida Atlantic is that their defense is going to get tired from all the three and outs the offense hooks them up with in this game. The only reason the books are having so many problems setting a proper line for this game is because they don't know what to expect from the new QB Joe Craddock. Despite his lack of experience and gametime plays, he does have a very strong arm that will allow him to exploit a very undersized Florida Atlantic secondary. Rick Stockhill takes pride in what he does as head coach of this football program and now that he has had Craddock a full season as the backup, I think the two are going to connect nicely and make some things happen this season.
The Florida Atlantic Owls are coming off a 5-7 season in 2006 and that followed a 2-9 season the year before. Now I know they have a lot of guys coming back from last year's team but can someone tell me what the point is of bringing back guys if they can't really play football anyways? We get to once again see our friend Howard Schnellenberger run this team for the seventh straight season and let me tell you something. Since joining the Division I-A ranks, Schnellenberger has coached this team in 35 games and only 5 of their 16 wins with him as head coach have come at home. I don't know what to say about that but I don't think it's wise to have money on a team that has never ever covered as a home favorite. The Owls are also 1-5 in their last six home openers with their only win coming against a Division II school named Southern Utah or something and if that's not pathetic im not too sure what is. Despite what this team can do on defense (which is not much but I had to say something nice), their offense is as anemic as it gets. They averaged only 15.1 points per game last season and 13.5 points per game the season before so why would things change against the best defense in this Conference? Middle Tennessee are specialists in several different defensive categories. Florida Atlantic QB Rusty Smith is going to be playing hurt so Middle Tennessee is sure to pressure him and hope he makes as many mistakes as he did last year when he tossed 8 interceptions. The best DB in this Conference is Middle Tennessee's Damon Nickson who had 5 inteceptions last season and who is sure to have one in this game if Smith tries to do too much. When the Owls want to run the ball they'll be in equal trouble since they averaged only 2.9 yards per carry last season and basically return some of the same guys as last year. With one of the best D's in the conference, Florida Atlantic might win a few more games but it won't come against Middle Tennessee who are one step ahead of them on that side of the ball.
The last two times these teams have met, it hasn't even been close and the Blue Raiders have walked all over Schnelly's guys. The score was actually 35-14 both times (home and away wins for the Blue Raiders) which is why I don't understand how things could have changed overnight for both programs. They haven't. Despite making strides in the right direction (well sorta) this Florida Atlantic team is a great example of Division I-A futility and they are not about to win games just like that because they have a lot of returning starters. Despite all the problems Middle Tennessee might have on the offensive end of things, they have a top notch defense that has quite a few NFL caliber prospects (seniors at that) and I wouldn't be surprised if they were the story of this game. The Owls have never covered the spread or won as home favorites and again I don't know why that would change in this game.
Trend of the Game: Florida Atlantic is 0-4 ATS lifetime as a home favorite.
Middle Tennessee 16, Florida Atlantic 6
Texas Christian Horned Frogs -21 (1 Unit)
So the word on the street is that Baylor went 4-8 last season but still had a succesful season. Well if that's what people want to call it go ahead because I call it borderline pathetic and I think they are going to sink even further this year with only 11 starters back from last year. The Bears, in my mind at least, are not a Big 12 worthy team and anyone who wants to take them because you feel a Big 12 school should not be getting disrespected by this many points against the Mountain West, is in for a nasty surprise. With so many players gone and with 32 lettermen lost from last season Baylor is in complete re-build mode right now and that is going to make it tough for these guys to get some wins let alone some covered spreads. They are 12-20 ATS as away underdogs the last seven seasons and Guy Morris has never really had this program on the ups. This is quite the game for Baylor since both schools are in Texas and since both are old rivals but like I said before, they just don't have the tools to make this game interesting. The Bears have only one QB worth mentioning on their depth chart and that is because he had a bit of playing time last year but tossed 7 interceptions in only 121 pass attempts and that's not even the projected starters for this team. He is injured for this game and won't play meaning that brand new spick and span QB has to play his first game Fort Worth nuthouse. On the ground the Bears lost their leading rusher and only bright spot on the offense as Paul Mosley and his 4.8 yards per carry are gone and need to be replaced. Well that won't be so easy in this game and I say that because TCU has one of the best defenses in this Country and I just don't see how Baylor is going to manage more than 3-6 points in this game. You can't run or pass on TCU as they allowed only 12.3 points per game last season and return 9 starters on defense this season. That's just freak nasty right there. Baylor are returning only 4 starters on offense and once again re-building against TCU just does not cut it because this defense is lights out and they allowed more than 14 points only once at home last season. The Bears might get lucky with a field goal or two but that's about it for them in this game.
The TCU Horned Frogs are going to most definitely make some noise in the Mountain West and quite possibly in the BCS if things come down to it in the end. Sure they have some tough opponents and sure they have the pressure of building on their 11-2 season from 2006 but Gary Patterson is ready to take on the world and that project starts at home against the hapless Baylor Bears. TCU lost a lot on offense from their 29.2 points per game last season but that doesn't mean that guys can't be replaced. TCU has won their last five home openers, winning them by an average scoring margin of 13 points and although that's not good enough to cover the spread in this game, I think this is their easiest Division I-A home opening opponent in a long time. The biggest loss for TCU is QB Jeff Ballard who leaves this school as one of the all-time favorites and who leaves after passing for 2394 total yards, 13 touchdowns, only 5 interceptions while at the same time rushing for 423 yards, 8 touchdowns and 3.8 yards per carry in 2006. So in comes QB Marcus Jackson who faced Baylor in last year's meeting and who won Mountain West PLAYER OF THE WEEK. He is not as good as Ballard on the ground but he completed 59.1% of his passes last season for 386 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Despite the possible early game struggles of Jackson, TCU can rely on RB Aaron Brown who is back again this year after rushing for 801 yards last season, 9 touchdowns and 5.2 yards per carry. There is no doubt in my mind he is going to reach the 100 rushing yards plateau in this game and no doubt going to hit 1000 by the end of the season. Baylor is horrendous on all sides of the defense and no matter how much they try, they won't keep this surgning TCU offense out of the endzone. I mean common, Baylor allowed 32.6 points per game in 2006 and their defense is going to be out there most of the game after the offense gives em some three and outs.
This is an old battle of Texas rivals who had not played against each other in a long time. TCU is definitely one of my picks for possible BCS busting teams that may sneak into one of the big Bowl Games depending on what they can do against teams like Texas and some of their conference opponents. Baylor is in complete rebuild mode and even at that, they have never been good as road underdogs the last seven seasons. TCU on the other hand is 19-13 ATS the last seven season as a home favorite and with so much fire power on both offense and defense, they will probably control the time of possession more than anything in this game and that usually leads to one team blowing out another. Baylor lost their last three road games last season by 22, 34 and 42 points last season and they come into this game with less experience than the guys who were part of those blowouts. TCU should get the ball rolling early in this game and I won't lie when I say I think they blow the snot out of them.
Trend of the Game: TCU is 12-2 in their last 14 games as the favorite.
Texas Christian 42, Baylor 6
Toledo Rockets +6.5 (5 Units)
Can we laugh now or can we laugh later at this posted line. So you are telling me that a Curtis Painter led team is about to walk into the Glass Bowl and win this game as a favorite of this many points? Oh cmon guys lets get real here. Purdue is coming off a decent 8-6 season that was capped off by a blowout loss in the Champs Sports Bowl against Maryland and believe me when I say that coming off Bowl losses is not fun, specially when you have to play on the road. Joe Tiller is now in his 11th season as the head coach of this football team and for those who don't know, his first ever game as the head coach was in this stadium and it was a 36-22 loss to the powerful Toledo Rockets. Purdue has however been a very good season opening team as they have won 7 of their last 8 season openers and look to do the same here. Some people are going to be impressed with the 18 total starters returning to the Boilermakers this season but they are going to be missing their leading tackler Dan Bick for this game which may make things a bit more complicated. Toledo's defense had an off year last year as they allowed 27.7 points per game but they return 8 starters on that side of the ball and six of their top seven tacklers are back in action. One thing you don't want to do is throw up some meat balls against this team. The Rockets one of the best secondaries in the MAC and they are even tougher at home. That's bad news Painter and company as the third year QB has threw 19 interceptions last season. Running on the Rockets is a better idea and I think Kory Sheets is probably going to have an easy time moving the chains. The only problem for this offense is that they may not be on the field long enough to make some big plays. The Purdue defense has been shaddy at best the last few years and I don't trust them one bit in this type of shootout affaire. My only concern with this team is that they are only 8-10-2 ATS the last seven seasons when the away favorite and although it's a familiar role, it's also a rare one and now they have to win in one of the toughest environments in college football. Painter does make a lot of mistakes and with the intensity of this game and the speed of this game, I think he mistakes will be fatal and the Boilermakers might lose their opener.
The Toledo Rockets, scandalous or not, are one of the best home teams in all of college football. Since the arrival of head coach Tom Astutz seven years ago, only four teams have ever won in the Glass Bowl and 30 teams have left with a loss in the loss column. That means Astutz is 30-4 in home games as the head coach of this football team and you can bet your bottom dollar the house is going to be full for this one. I know Toledo is only 4-11 lifetime versus teams from the Big 10 but they have two wins and only loss against Purdue since 1992 and this is the one Big 10 team they have been able to beat. Seeing how this is one of the best college football home teams, would it be safe to assume that the scandalous accusations around this football program have something to do with the out of character two home losses for this team last year? I mean for a team that had won so many home games, losing by 22 to Central Michigan and by 3 against Ball State is just a tad weird. What you need to know about Toledo and their 5-7 record last year is that they lost 31 starts to injuries which means 31 times a starter had to miss a game because he was incapable of playing. Now that everyone is healthy you can expect the most out of this sometimes explosive team. I don't know that I trust the QB's on this team but I can't say that I trust Curtis Painter anymore than these guys anyways. Despite returning a lot of players on defense this season, Purdue still allowed a whopping 4.9 yards per carry last season and the personel has not changed enough to improve. That means RB Jalen Parmele, who rushed for 1131 yards (8 touchdowns and 5.5 yards per carry in 2006) is going to run the offense and probably open things up for the quarterbacks to make some plays downfield. Parmele is a very strong runner who should make the Purdue defense look terrible, like so many RB's were able to do last year. Tom Astutz is not about to have another sub 30.0 point per game season (he had never had one prior to last year) so expect Toledo to be firing all weapons at this revamped Purdue defense early in the game. He knows how to run an offense and if he has his way, Toledo is going to continuously put pressure on Purdue to score. The Rockets are 19-10 ATS as home favorites the last seven seasons and even if this turns into a shootout, they have all the guys necessary to activate their weapons. I think Toledo opens some eyes this season.
We all know that Toledo is under a very watchful eye after reports that they have fixed basketball and football matches. However, I don't see that having any effect on either teams players because in the end it was probably one or two bad apples that were involved and Toledo has a lot to prove this season. The Glass Bowl has become an impossible place to play in despite holding less than most Division I-A stadiums (ranks #111). Purdue is one of those teams and Joe Tiller is one of those coaches that should never lay chalk in road games, let alone in a place where he has been blown out before and let alone against one of the best home teams in college football. Like I said, this line is a complete joke and I don't know where people come from thinking Purdue has a chance to win by a touchdown. Their defense is not good enough yet at this point in the season to contain Parmele and their offense, although they will score, is too mistake prone to keep things interesting. I think Toledo wins this game straight up.
Trend of the Game: Toledo is 30-4 SU at home with Tom Astutz as head coach.
Toledo 38, Purdue 31
Minnesota Golden Gophers -14 (1 Unit)
The Bowling Green Falcons are not the old Bowling Green team we saw go 8-3 in 2001, 9-3 in 2002, 10-3 in 2003 and 8-3 in 2004. Nope...not even close and that is why I am going to continue to fade the team that went 3-9 ATS last season and 6-17 ATS combined the last two seasons. The Falcons have won some season opening road games against Big 10 opponents in the past but like I have already mentioned, that was the Bowling Green days of old and now the era of suck has begun. I don't know how much longer they want to hold on to Gregg Brandon as head coach but regardless he has to start winning again or his name is going to be mentioned with the 'Who will be fired first' crowd. The Falcons do have 15 starters back and some of their units did play well late in the 2006 season but this task might be a bit too much. You can expect a lot more scoring from this Bowling Green team seeing how almost every member of the offense is back. But how much do you trust guys returning from a team that scored only 19.5 points per game last season and who have to kickoff their season on the Big 10 road? Minnesota, although they sucked in 2006, have brought in some new personnel to shake things up and improve on their not so bad defense that allowed 26.0 points per game last season. The new Defensive Coordinator is from the Tennessee Titans and I think he can really turn things around here. My issue with Bowling Green is not that they don't have potential to once again score a lot of points and cover the spread in games like this but it's more that Minnesota has too many returning weapons on their defense and that should force a lot of Bowling Green turnovers. I mean if you look at all the guys back on this defense you have a total of 14 interceptions, 20.5 sacks and a whole bunch of tacklers including five of the top six. So I know Bowling Green is going to have success on offense at some point this season but I just don't think they'll do enough in this game to keep it close.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers come into this game with a new set of legs. By new set of legs I mean an entire changeup of the coaching staff and that can only do this program some good. Sure coach Mason did a lot for this team but in the end his failure to win more than 7 games in the last who knows how many years was too much for the brass to handle and they decided it was time to somewhere else. So in they brought Tim Brewster who was the Denver Bronco's TE coach but who also has coaching experience under Mack Brown and who captained Illinois to a Rose Bowl win many years ago. Minnesota was always about some hardcore power running when Mason was in charge but I think they are changing things up to a more spread approach this season which should do them a bit of good. The more open style of passing should let the new QB work himself in quite nicely. If QB Adam Weber is the starter in this game he would fit the mold perfectly because he is very mobile and the spread offense will allow him to do pretty much anything he wants. Apparently he rushed for 1519 yards in High School two years ago and had almost 5000 passing yards while at. Don't forget this offense also has RB Amir Pinnix who rushed for 1272 yards last season with 10 touchdowns and 5.0 yards per carry. This team has four guys returning who rushed for more than 4.0 yards per carry. Against most big name programs this team is going to struggle but against a team like Bowling Green who have probably the worst defensive line in the MAC, the Gophers should be able to run up the score. We saw what Rutgers did to Buffalo's weak defensive line in their opener and im telling you that Bowling Green's D-Line is just as bad if not worse than Buffalo's. The bottom line here is that no matter how poorly they play in Big 10 action, Minnesota has always been a team that blows non-conference opponents out of the water at home in early season games and they are 18-11 ATS the last seven season as a home favorite. I have no problems backing them despite the lack of experience at the QB position...I think this is a blowout.
Want some stats on this one? Well Minnesota is 24-2-1 SU versus curent MAC Conference opponents which means they usually win big. I also found out that Minnesota has won 12 straight home openers and they have won those games by an average margin of 31 points per game. So if that's any indication of what is about to come in this game, I am licking my chops and getting ready to watch the wind blow over this Bowling Green. Like I said, the Falcons will be better this season but they wont be good enough early on and they certainly wont be good enough in this kind of atmosphere with such mediocrity on defense. Minnesota has some new players to work in but they will always have some outstanding players who can run the ball and that bodes well against one of the worst run defense teams in the Country. I think this game gets out of hand by halftime and I don't think Bowling Green will ever come close to covering this game in the second half.
Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.
Minnesota 48, Bowling Green 10
Arizona State Sun Devils -15 (1 Unit)
The San Jose State Spartans were everyone's little darling last year because they made each and everyone of us some cash at some point with their 8-3 ATS mark. Only problem with that is that repeating that feat is going to be next to impossible this season and I don't think they are going to intimidate a team like Arizona State. Despite playing really well against Washington in their road opener as +20 points underdogs last season, San Jose State is still 2-16 in their last 18 road openers and they are still the same program that Arizona State recently blew out of the water 53-15 in 2001. Dick Tomey spoke this week about this being his best team since his arrival at San Jose State but once again that doesn't always mean the team will win. The Spartans have a nice number of starters returning this season as they bring back 15 starters on both sides of the ball and could easily match last year's offensive and defensive outputs. The only issue I have with this team is that although QB Adam Tafralis was pretty damn good last season with his 21 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions, he doesn't have a single familiar face to throw the ball too this season. If it wasn't for Tarfalis and his ability to spread the ball around for 2284 yards, the Spartans would not have won nine games. So now that all three of his top receivers are gone, I think his numbers are going to sink and the Spartans will suffer from this. The three departed receivers had combined for 1700+ receiving yards and a combined 18 touchdowns for this offense. In what we already know is going to be a high scoring affaire, San Jose State will need all the weapons they can handle seeing how their running game is just as good as it was last year but that's because the pass game had to be respected. Arizona State does not have a strong defense at all but in a shootout, I don't think the Spartans have enough weapons to make a difference. It's going to be tough for them to keep up with a high powered offense like the Sun Devils but the Spartans can absolutely do it. However, this is a very tough place to play in and with the new coaching staff and with the atmosphere around campus, I dont think San Jose State is ready to shoot things out with the Sun Devils as much as they were ready to mix it up with Washington last year. Good Luck to them but my money is against this team that is 16-22 ATS as an away underdog the last seven seasons...not good enough for me.
The Arizona State Sun Devils begin the Dennis Erickson era in this game and from what I hear this could one of their best eras in a long time. Coach Koetter just wasn't getting the job done on either side of the ball and it was time he moved on to something else. The Sun Devils are not to be doubted this season, its more like they are to be feared with Erickson as head coach. I say that because he is a winner when given talent to work with and he has proven that time and time again by leading several teams and earning a 148-65-1 college football coaching record. You can't really argue with that and I think some of the players on the Sun Devils are excited to have him around. The offense has 9 starters back from the team last year and my favorite part about that is that seeing how they are almost all upper-classmen, they must really want to have one more big season with the new head coach before they move onto other things. The key to this game is going to be to have everyone on the same page as Erickson and usually when you have upper-classmen to work with, that tends to happen a lot quicker. QB Rudy Carpenter is ready to once again sling mud with other teams as he is back with his 2523 passing yards and 23 passing touchdowns. Also back are RB Ryan Torain who rushed for 1229 yards, 7 touchdowns and 5.5 yards per carry. Also back are six receivers who had 10 or more catches which is good despite the loss of Tight End Zach Miller who has moved on to the NFL. San Jose State's defense allowed only 20.8 points per game last season but that's going to be hard to duplicate. They did allow 35 points against Washington and 34 points against Stanford, the only two PAC 10 teams they had to face all season so expect the Sun Devils to score at least that many. I think they key to the offense will be to work on the Spartans linebackers who are not only really mismatched in this game but are also undersized and not capable of covering extra receivers on the wide spread. The more the Sun Devils can move the chains with 10-12 yard passes, the more they have a chance of really opening things up and keeping this defense on their toes, which means they will tire fast. I really like Arizona State under Erickson and I think most people are going to see why I backed them in this spot.
Despite what some people think about both programs and the directions they are heading, one thing remains for sure and that is that Arizona State is going to play their balls off in their home opener like they almost always do. Erickson is not afraid to open up this offense and the Sun Devils have now won 8 straight home openers and not only have they won them but they have won them by an average margin of 26.0 points per game which is pretty damn good considering this spread. I know Rudy Carpenter has a problem with making erratic throws (14 interceptions last season) but Erickson is going to keep things simple and probably approach this game with blowout in his mind. As long as the defense can hold their own and get Tarfalis mixed up with his brand spanking new receiving corps, the Sun Devils should have no problems taking a big first half lead and running off to what has become an annual opening night blowout for them in home games.
Trend of the Game: Arizona State is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games as a double digit favorite.
Arizona State 48, San Jose State 21
WEEKLY RECAP
UL Monroe +3
Mississippi State +18.5
Syracuse +3.5
Alabama-Birmingham +21.5
Connecticut -4
Wyoming +3
Nebraska -21
Memphis +3
Middle Tennesse +2
Texas Christian -21
Toledo +6.5
Minnesota -14
Arizona State -15
0-2 ATS this week with these pendings
<!-- / message -->
