Mississippi State vs Louisville: MUSIC CITY BOWL NCAAF Picks and Predictions
Mississippi State vs Louisville
Monday, December 30, 2019 at 4 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Nissan Stadium in Nashville Tennessee
Louisville’s Defensive Line
There is not a lot of meat along Louisville’s defensive line: the two starting ends average 254 pounds and the defensive tackle weighs 295 pounds.
It’s been a question of its opponent’s size: all six teams whose offensive linemen average 309 pounds easily exceeded its average rushing production.
Notre Dame exceeded its average rush yards per game by 52, Florida State by 13, Clemson by 59, Miami by 87, Syracuse by 106, and Kentucky by 260.
The Florida State, Clemson, and Notre Dame games stayed under the total.
Notre Dame and Clemson boast elite scoring defenses against which Louisville’s offense failed to score enough.
In the Florida State game, the total stayed under by two points thanks to three missed field goals and multiple turnovers deep in the opponent’s territory.
However, Miami, Syracuse, and Kentucky helped the game go over, thus generating a three-game „over“ streak when a big enough offensive line faces Louisville.
Mississippi State’s Rush Attack
Mississippi State’s offensive linemen bring tremendous size, averaging 333 pounds.
Its size has helped the run-blocking thrive according to advanced metrics.
Miss State ranks 31st in opportunity rate, 31st in power success rate, and 10th in stuff rate.
These rankings mean that Bulldog offensive linemen are great at making holes for their ball-carrier, great in third-and-short scenarios, and elite at keeping their ball-carrier from being stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Partly thanks to its offensive line, Mississippi State ranks 22nd in averaging 213 rush yards per game.
Another reason is Kylin Hill.
Before Hill departs for the NFL Draft, he sees an opportunity against Louisville to bolster his stock and distinguish himself from a large number of similarly reputed running backs.
On the season, he’s accrued 1,347 yards on 5.7 YPC, displaying his characteristic power and explosiveness as he aggressively seeks out contact.
His violence and physicality and his ability to stay low to the ground and keep his balance make him difficult for defenders to bring down.
Micale Cunningham vs Mississippi State
At quarterback, Micale Cunningham has been a positive find after the initial starter, Javon Pass, suffered a season-ending injury.
Cunningham is the ACC’s second-best quarterback in terms of passer rating thanks to his efficiency. He’s completing 61 percent of his passes while throwing 20 touchdowns to five interceptions.
Reliable both from the pocket and when he rolls outside of it, he’s taken advantage of weaker opposing pass defenses.
16 of his touchdowns came against the seven opponents that he faced that rank in the bottom half in passing yards allowed per game.
Except when it’s faced its worst opposing Power Five passing quarterbacks, Mississippi State has been terrible against the pass. Overall, it ranks 98th in opposing passer rating.
Guys like Kellen Mond and Bo Nix, who share Cunningham’s dual-threat ability, were able to have massive performances through the air with each quarterback passing for over 270 yards and over three touchdowns.
Like Mond and Nix, Cunningham can run. His speed is apparent when he gets to the outside. He also displays positive cut-back ability, good vision, and the patience to follow blockers.
Against Virginia, for example, he ran for 97 yards and he can also thrive against a Mississippi State defensive line that ranks in the lower half in terms of run defense and sack rate.
Javian Hawkins
Louisville’s running game brings balance to its offense.
The key is Javian Hawkins, who ran for 1,420 yards on 5.9 YPC. He averaged 6.5 YPC or more against all three opposing rush defenses faced that ranked outside the top 80 in opposing YPC.
His running ability helps open up the pass, thus helping the over to hit in all three games in which he averaged at least 6.5 YPC.
With his speed and big-play ability, he’ll succeed against a Bulldog front seven that has been pushed by smaller and weaker offensive lines after losing so much NFL talent in the offseason.
Overall, the Bulldogs rank 84th in opposing YPC.
Best Bet: Over 63 (-110) with Bookmaker
Mississippi State vs Louisville
Monday, December 30, 2019 at 4 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Nissan Stadium in Nashville Tennessee
Louisville’s Defensive Line
There is not a lot of meat along Louisville’s defensive line: the two starting ends average 254 pounds and the defensive tackle weighs 295 pounds.
It’s been a question of its opponent’s size: all six teams whose offensive linemen average 309 pounds easily exceeded its average rushing production.
Notre Dame exceeded its average rush yards per game by 52, Florida State by 13, Clemson by 59, Miami by 87, Syracuse by 106, and Kentucky by 260.
The Florida State, Clemson, and Notre Dame games stayed under the total.
Notre Dame and Clemson boast elite scoring defenses against which Louisville’s offense failed to score enough.
In the Florida State game, the total stayed under by two points thanks to three missed field goals and multiple turnovers deep in the opponent’s territory.
However, Miami, Syracuse, and Kentucky helped the game go over, thus generating a three-game „over“ streak when a big enough offensive line faces Louisville.
Mississippi State’s Rush Attack
Mississippi State’s offensive linemen bring tremendous size, averaging 333 pounds.
Its size has helped the run-blocking thrive according to advanced metrics.
Miss State ranks 31st in opportunity rate, 31st in power success rate, and 10th in stuff rate.
These rankings mean that Bulldog offensive linemen are great at making holes for their ball-carrier, great in third-and-short scenarios, and elite at keeping their ball-carrier from being stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Partly thanks to its offensive line, Mississippi State ranks 22nd in averaging 213 rush yards per game.
Another reason is Kylin Hill.
Before Hill departs for the NFL Draft, he sees an opportunity against Louisville to bolster his stock and distinguish himself from a large number of similarly reputed running backs.
On the season, he’s accrued 1,347 yards on 5.7 YPC, displaying his characteristic power and explosiveness as he aggressively seeks out contact.
His violence and physicality and his ability to stay low to the ground and keep his balance make him difficult for defenders to bring down.
Micale Cunningham vs Mississippi State
At quarterback, Micale Cunningham has been a positive find after the initial starter, Javon Pass, suffered a season-ending injury.
Cunningham is the ACC’s second-best quarterback in terms of passer rating thanks to his efficiency. He’s completing 61 percent of his passes while throwing 20 touchdowns to five interceptions.
Reliable both from the pocket and when he rolls outside of it, he’s taken advantage of weaker opposing pass defenses.
16 of his touchdowns came against the seven opponents that he faced that rank in the bottom half in passing yards allowed per game.
Except when it’s faced its worst opposing Power Five passing quarterbacks, Mississippi State has been terrible against the pass. Overall, it ranks 98th in opposing passer rating.
Guys like Kellen Mond and Bo Nix, who share Cunningham’s dual-threat ability, were able to have massive performances through the air with each quarterback passing for over 270 yards and over three touchdowns.
Like Mond and Nix, Cunningham can run. His speed is apparent when he gets to the outside. He also displays positive cut-back ability, good vision, and the patience to follow blockers.
Against Virginia, for example, he ran for 97 yards and he can also thrive against a Mississippi State defensive line that ranks in the lower half in terms of run defense and sack rate.
Javian Hawkins
Louisville’s running game brings balance to its offense.
The key is Javian Hawkins, who ran for 1,420 yards on 5.9 YPC. He averaged 6.5 YPC or more against all three opposing rush defenses faced that ranked outside the top 80 in opposing YPC.
His running ability helps open up the pass, thus helping the over to hit in all three games in which he averaged at least 6.5 YPC.
With his speed and big-play ability, he’ll succeed against a Bulldog front seven that has been pushed by smaller and weaker offensive lines after losing so much NFL talent in the offseason.
Overall, the Bulldogs rank 84th in opposing YPC.
Best Bet: Over 63 (-110) with Bookmaker
