Misleading Scores Week 3

[ksimpsc]

Gonna go ahead and start this off with the Cocks. ECU solidly out gained us but somehow managed 3 turnovers at the goal line

 

[gps_3]

Didn't watch a play of the game nor have I looked at the stats, but just saw that Mizzou lost to UGA by 1, and Mizzou had 5 turnovers to UGA's 1

 

[RetroVK]

ECU was the blatant one i saw.

 

[RetroVK]

[TABLE="class: mod-data, width: 495"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom: thin solid rgb(203, 204, 206);">[TR="class: header"]
[TH="align: left"]Matchup[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]

[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]

[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]6-14[/TD]
[TD]5-13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]2-2[/TD]
[TD]0-3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]443[/TD]
[TD]403[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]152[/TD]
[TD]226[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att[/TD]
[TD]14-20[/TD]
[TD]17-32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass[/TD]
[TD]7.6[/TD]
[TD]7.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]291[/TD]
[TD]177[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush[/TD]
[TD]6.1[/TD]
[TD]4.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]11-75[/TD]
[TD]4-28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]35:49[/TD]
[TD]24:11[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[RetroVK]

Final Score is deceiving towards the side but I mean it is more deceiving towards the total

 

[Reds4]

USF/Syracuse

 

[M.O.T]

Not sure how misleading it is just by the score and box score but there was a huge shift in the LSU-Miss St game following Fournette's second fumble with about 6 minutes to go. LSU was up 17 and took the ball from their 1 to State's 35 where he fumbled on a 4th and short conversion that would have likely gone for a big play. State drives for a TD, recovers onside kick, scores another TD in two plays.

The score went from 23-6 with LSU driving for the final nail at 6 minutes to 23-20 with 3 minutes remaining.

 

[KobeJames823]

Western Kentucky had a strange day.

- Fumble on a play originally ruled a drop then almost down at Miami 25
- Fumble on 1&G at the 8
- Stuffed at the goal line three times inside the 1
- Got a little conservative at the end of the game with the outcome never in doubt

I think they play that game 100 times, Miami stays that close less than five times. Just a weird day. WKU was 1-12 on 3rd/4th down even though they had 402 yards on 66 plays.

Syracuse somehow only scored 3 points on it's final 11 drives averaging a respectable 4.5ish y/play over said stretch to lose in a "much closer" 42-20 game.

 

[gps_3]

The Alabama-Ole Miss game was 10-3 with under 5 minutes left in the half and Ole Miss facing a long 3rd down when Alabama got flagged for roughing the passer (ticky tack call, but whatever). In the next 4 min and 40 secs of game time, there were 28 points scored. The game may well have gone over without that chain of events, but it definitely changed the complexion of the game and the urgency with which Alabama played. I guess my point is that it feels dumb to say that a game that had over 80 points was misleading to the total of 55 or whatever, but for that many points being scored it didn't feel like either team was just going up and down the field all game. Lot of bad/good breaks completely changed the flow

 

[CrimsonK]

Did anyone watch Akron/Marshall that could shed any light on what happened?

 

[sfbuckeye]

Did anyone watch Akron/Marshall that could shed any light on what happened?

Watched pieces of that game. Big momentum shift in the 2Q with a sack/fumble/defensive TD for Akron, a blocked punt TD a few minutes later, and an INT that set Akron up in the redzone for a third TD mostly attributable to D/ST. They closed the game out with a pick 6 in garbage time.

Both teams had a lot of explosive plays and Marshall closed with nearly 500 yards passing. Marshall controlled time of possession almost 2:1.

Marshall deserved to lose, but the margin was definitely misleading.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Did anyone watch Akron/Marshall that could shed any light on what happened?

I did a quadruple take when I saw the score of that game.

 

[gps_3]

Check out the penalty yardage in that game.

Akron 13-136, Marshall 17-180. 180 penalty yards? Can't remember seeing that before

 

[CrimsonK]

Thanks guys that's helpful. 99% sure I will bet Marshall but I will wait and see if I can't get 4 TD. Sneaky, sneaky game against the second sneakinest HFA in all of CFB, behind Rice-Ecles!

 

[Dollaz]

Based on box scores, ASU/UTSA. Look like ASU gifted UTSA two touchdowns. Southern Miss/Troy?

 

[CrimsonK]

Based on box scores, ASU/UTSA. Look like ASU gifted UTSA two touchdowns. Southern Miss/Troy?

I didn't see sum/Troy but based on the box it seems the scoring was extremely inflated yet it just crept over the total. Anyone watch?

 

[sleepy]

from Dave Cokins blog page

Here’s the Monday rundown of some of the misleading final scores from the past week’s college football games. I’ve also got a few other notes from games that didn’t fall into that category but feel are worth mentioning.

Boston College was completely overwhelmed at Virginia Tech. The first thought while watching this carnage was that the staunch BC defense might already be showing signs of wearing down. This has to happen at some point thanks to the three and out offense that is starting to look every bit as inept as last year’s outfit.

Connecticut was outplayed by Virginia, but the Huskies managed to come back from an early deficit and got lucky when the Cavaliers walk-on kicker missed a 20 yard field goal at the conclusion of regulation.

East Carolina dominated South Carolina, but the Pirates could not stop turning the football over in the red zone. Brutal loss for ECU in a game they clearly should have won.

Memphis won easily against Kansas, with the Jayhawks making it easy thanks to a ridiculous -6 turnover margin.

Central Florida lost a heartbreaker to Maryland in double overtime. The Knights hurt themselves by finishing -4 in net turnovers. The Terrapins won the game on a 24-yard run by the backup QB on his only snap of the game following an injury to starter Perry Hills on the first play of that second overtime.

Ohio State didn’t dominate Oklahoma on the stat sheet, but anyone who watched the game knows better.

Rutgers won a wild game with New Mexico. The Lobos again jumped out to an early lead and appeared to be in control, but this time their 21-0 lead was gone by halftime.

Oregon scored five touchdowns at Nebraska, but decided to go for two each time and converted only once. That was the difference in the three-point loss at Lincoln. Also worth noting the Ducks lacked discipline throughout and were called for far too many penalties.

TCU crushed Iowa State, but the Cyclones got two late scores to slip inside the number. That included a meaningless field goal near the close.

California lost the yards battle with Texas, but the Golden Bears won the crucial turnover stat as they knocked off the Longhorns. It probably wouldn’t have mattered but Charlie Strong’s decision to punt on fourth down with a couple minutes remaining was ridiculous.

Arizona State was very fortunate to escape at UT-San Antonio. The Sun Devils were very flat and needed a good sized rally to quell the upset minded hosts.

Georgia came back to nip Missouri, but might well have lost this game if not for a late Tigers fumble on what would have been a big gain.

Kentucky ended up winning by 20 against New Mexico State, but this was a 35-35 game before the Wildcats finally gained control. Despite claims to the contrary by the suits at UK, the pressure on Mark Stoops is definitely growing.

LSU looked like it would easily dispatch Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs wouldn’t go away and the Tigers again displayed little in the way of killer instinct.

Southern Mississippi was stunned at home by Troy, and the Golden Eagles were their own worst enemy with a ghastly -6 net turnovers.

Akron and Marshall played what was probably the weirdest game of the day. The Thundering Herd were up 21-7 and driving when a massive hit on QB Chase Litton resulted in a fumble and TD for the Zips. Marshall then fell completely apart and ended up allowing 34 points in the second quarter alone. There was speculation by the broadcasters that Litton might have been knocked silly on the hit and he sure played like it after that, which brings into question whether he should have even been in the game.

 

[TheGarfather]

The way this sport is being played these days makes it tough for me to cap and understand sometimes. Syracuse had the stat edges, had a 17-0 lead, were catching a couple touchdowns on the spread, by the 4Q had little chance of covering. Its just bizarre. And its not like they were playing Baylor from a couple years ago. USF is solid but not some offensive dynamo team.

I had Ohio St/Oklahoma under 63.5 which was a ridiculous beat. Amazing catches, non-offensive touchdowns, you name it. Then again I did have Troy/USM over. I didn't see any of it, but an inspection of the stats and play-by-play makes it look like the over was a very generous result.

 

[JohnnyGambler]

The way this sport is being played these days makes it tough for me to cap and understand sometimes. Syracuse had the stat edges, had a 17-0 lead, were catching a couple touchdowns on the spread, by the 4Q had little chance of covering. Its just bizarre. And its not like they were playing Baylor from a couple years ago. USF is solid but not some offensive dynamo team.

I had Ohio St/Oklahoma under 63.5 which was a ridiculous beat. Amazing catches, non-offensive touchdowns, you name it. Then again I did have Troy/USM over. I didn't see any of it, but an inspection of the stats and play-by-play makes it look like the over was a very generous result.

The lack of defense is making this sport much harder to cap nowadays. Fundamentals, tackling, you name it is all abysmal. Offense in general has always been more variable. Defense is/was much more consistent. Nowadays when you bet some games you are kinda just hoping that a WR slips or a QB misses a throw.

 

[gps_3]

Thanks guys that's helpful. 99% sure I will bet Marshall but I will wait and see if I can't get 4 TD. Sneaky, sneaky game against the second sneakinest HFA in all of CFB, behind Rice-Ecles!

I lean Marshall based on PR, but I'm not sure I want to get in front of the Louisville train right now. Though you won't find a better situation to go against them

 

[CrimsonK]

I lean Marshall based on PR, but I'm not sure I want to get in front of the Louisville train right now. Though you won't find a better situation to go against them

I actually told a friend last week, somewhat jokingly, that Marshall would play them closer than FSU. Probably will be totaled mid 70's so not a huge opportunity they miss a total there especially given the point explosion in both games last week. Prob better off trying to find value to the contrary of one of those results and go to Akron/App St under which my gut tells me there will be an opportunity to play if they come with a low/mid 50's total.

 

[spooks]

Not misleading and I'm sure OK would've gotten the TD on the next plays, but c'mon...

Joe Mixon drops football before the goal line on a 97 KO return. I just don't get why players do dumb stuff like this.....we see it time and time again!!!

[video=youtube_share;rA72a0gg5ms]https://youtu.be/rA72a0gg5ms[/video]

 

[CrimsonK]

Another strange line given one week to the next:

Troy -21 vs. NMSU

Wasn't NMSU -18.5 last week @ UK?

Troy = Kentucky? Hmm, could be but that seems kinda off.

 

[CrimsonK]

Going crazy with transitive stuff... If Troy = Kentucky and Kentucky = USCe then should we expect Clemson to be -35 against USCe? opcorn:

 

[KJ]

I'd say that teams traveling a distance for back to back road games is worth a lot more points than they adjust for, bet troy destroys NMSU

 

[CrimsonK]

I'd say that teams traveling a distance for back to back road games is worth a lot more points than they adjust for, bet troy destroys NMSU

Good point on travel. I took Pitt this week because it's a dream matchup on the field but my concern is B2B roadies and coming off two super emotional games. Hard to quantify that stuff

 

[Capone]

Did anyone mention Houston-Cincy?

 

[s--k]

14-7 Penn St in second quarter had a 1st and goal and fumbled. Later 21-7 PSU drive right before half had a 1st and 10 at Temple 40, but eventually got to 4th down and decided to punt (touchback). With under :40 left in the half Temple was able to drive for a 45y FG. 21-10 Preventing more PSU pts and unexpectedly getting 3 of their own was a big boost for Owls heading into locker room.

3rd qrt, PSU had 1st and goal at the 9, but penalty and loss yardage resulted in a FG. With the score 24-10 PSU threw INT from inside their own 20, leading to a 4 play 14y Temple TD drive (converted 4th and 1 at the goaline for TD). With the score 27-17 PSU also fumbled a punt setting up another Temple TD drive of 3 play TD drive. 27-24 at that point. Final was 34-27 following a PSU TD and Temple FG. PSU did pick off Temple in the final seconds deep in Temple territory, but the defender slid down.

 

[Alan Tongue]

Another strange line given one week to the next:

Troy -21 vs. NMSU

Wasn't NMSU -18.5 last week @ UK?

Troy = Kentucky? Hmm, could be but that seems kinda off.

troy beat southern miss on the road

southern miss beat Kentucky on the road

therefore Troy > kentucky

isnt that how it works? (blankets logic :tiphat: )

 

[s--k]

BYU has covered or pushed (depending on line) each one of their games on their final possession of the game. VS Arizona the game winning FG with :00 left to win by 2 (spread anywhere from -1.5 to +1.5). VS Utah (+3), down 7 they score a TD (Failed 2 pt attempt). VS UCLA down 10 (+3 or +3.5), they scored a TD with less than a minute left to only lose by 3.

 

[sportjunky]

was about to mention UCLA BYU. ended up 17-14 but I don't think it was ever in doubt. UCLA defense dominated that shit.

 

[CrimsonK]

troy beat southern miss on the road

southern miss beat Kentucky on the road

therefore Troy > kentucky

isnt that how it works? (blankets logic :tiphat: )

:cheers3:

 

[s--k]

Both Utah and San Jose kicked short FGs, SJ from the 11 and Utah from the 19. Utes kicked their 2nd FG after having a first and goal at the 3 (kicked from the 5).

In the second half Utes had first and goal at the 2 and on 3rd down threw a pick in the EZ.

On a big 30y run in the 4th qrt, Utah RB fumbled at the SJ 20 where SJ recovered.

The total looked like it just went over, but some pts left off the board especially Utah could've had more.

 

[CrimsonK]

One thing I wanted to mention here - Mark Richt was absolutely fantastic calling plays against App St. They knew they had a distinct advantage if they could get their guys the ball in space. The first TD, scored on their first offensive snap was pretty flukey - RB was hit at line and should have been tackled but the defense stood and watched and Walton ran for about an 80 yd TD. After that, it was a heavy dose of WR screen/swing type passes over and over and over again, thus getting their guys in space on easy completions and they just gashed App St badly. I only watched the 1Q, I had U54 and knew I was dead after a few minutes but it only ended up landing on 55. App St lost their NFL level RB early in the game and that hurt them. I learned a lot more about Miami than I did about App St and the main takeaway was that I think this coaching staff will get the most out of this team especially given the contrast to how poorly I felt Golden and staff did that.

 

[s--k]

QB Kendall Hinton is out 2-4 weeks for Wake (PCL sprain). He started for the first time vs Delaware, but was inj in the 1st qrt. Wolford is in his 3rd year and has started since being a tr fr. He is only hitting 54% this year with a 5.5 ypa. Wolford and Hinton have alternated the past 1+ seasons, but Hinton is more mobile and can make nice plays running and QB'd most of the win vs Duke. Wolford did have runs of 11, 30, 10 last week.

 

[s--k]

I have no idea if Northern Colorado is any good or not, they got 283 of their 411 total yards and all of their 21 pts in the second half. They trailed Colorado State 38-0 at half.

CSU went with tr fr Colin Hill at QB (21-27-314-4-0, 56y rushing incl a 51y run). Hill is starting at Minnesota this week.

 

[s--k]

South Alabama - ULL: Both teams missed 2pt conv plays, ULL missed a FG and 2 PATs. USA stopped on downs at ULL 25, ULL later SOD in the red zone. Scored 51 pts, o/u 53.

Game was already mentioned....Virginia at UConn. Virginia had 100 more yards kicked FG from the 6 and 90y TD drive for 10-0 halftime lead). An INT set UConn up at the UVA 25 for the then game tying FG. 10-10. Later trailing 10-13 on UVA's final possession they hit a 34y pass on 4th & 10 down to the 9. After a couple rush attempts, but with no timeouts had to rush the FG unit on and the kick was shanked. I guess that is karma for UConn's loss in the final seconds last week. In UConn's two wins this season, both have come on final possession game winning FGs.

In the first half SMU threw INT in EZ, kicked a FG from the 7, again FG from the 7 and was INT'd at the goal line and only had 13 first half pts. Second half they missed a FG from the 13 and kicked another from the 10. For the game SMU had 495 yards, but scored just 29 pts.

 

[RetroVK]

EMU Charlotte. Not posting it but if someone wants to they can

 

[ksimpsc]

Going crazy with transitive stuff... If Troy = Kentucky and Kentucky = USCe then should we expect Clemson to be -35 against USCe? opcorn:

i hope so, we nearly beat them last year with those ragdolls that lost to the Citadel