TheDailyEdge
Pretty much a regular
I always like reading this thread, but didn't see one for week #9, so I figured I'd start one and see what everyone comes up with. Here are a few from our site this week:
Purdue 55, Nebraska 45
Purdue won the turnover category 5-0, which is usually a sign that the wrong team won a game. Nebraska had advantages in total yardage 484-457, yards-per-play 6.3 to 5.7, and third down conversions 58% to 47%. Pretty clear the Huskers would have won with even turnovers. Yet, it was still a horrible game for the Huskers in context because nobody should be in shootouts with Purdue! The anti-Nebraska conclusions you draw from the final score are correct…just be careful giving Purdue too much credit going forward. They probably won’t enjoy a 5-0 turnover advantage again.
Iowa 31, Maryland 15
This one finished close to the market expectations…so it’s easy to overlook. Iowa actually played pretty poorly here for a 17-point favorite. Yards-per-play was just 4.3 to 4.2 for the hosts…which is terrible against a bad team like Maryland. The Hawkeyes needed a 4/1 edge in turnovers and a 38% to 10% advantage in third downs to push the scoreboard margin up to where they still couldn’t cover. A flat performance hidden by opposition turnovers. That 4.3 to 4.2 mark in YPP is glaring if you’ve studied Maryland all season.
Stanford 30, Washington State 28
Tricky one here…because Washington State won total yardage 442-312 and missed what would have been the game winning field goal in the final seconds. Easy to think Stanford’s win was a gift if you only look at those two facts. Wazzou ran a lot more plays because of the nature of their offense (86-59). Yards-per-play actually went to Stanford 5.3 to 5.1. The Cardinal also won third down conversions 31% to 14%. Turnovers were even at 2-2. Those last few stats are consistent with Stanford squeezing out a nailbiter. This is why many handicappers prefer YPP over raw yardage as a storyteller. Definitely a flashback to Stanford’s season opener at Northwestern. This group has trouble bringing peak intensity 12 times a season. They’re a national power when focused. When not…they play nailbiters with teams like Northwestern and Washington State. This final score actually isn’t all that misleading. But, there was so much chatter about WSU’s yardage edge Saturday night that I wanted to include some context.
Tennessee 52, Kentucky 21
Goes on the list because Tennessee had a kickoff return TD, a punt return TD, and a 4-yard touchdown drive. They were the best team by a good bit…but scoreboard margin overstates the case. Tennessee won yardage 482-349, yards-per-play 7.0 to 5.4, and third down conversions 53% to 15%. Shade about 10-14 points off the margin to get a better sense of the two teams moving forward.
Purdue 55, Nebraska 45
Purdue won the turnover category 5-0, which is usually a sign that the wrong team won a game. Nebraska had advantages in total yardage 484-457, yards-per-play 6.3 to 5.7, and third down conversions 58% to 47%. Pretty clear the Huskers would have won with even turnovers. Yet, it was still a horrible game for the Huskers in context because nobody should be in shootouts with Purdue! The anti-Nebraska conclusions you draw from the final score are correct…just be careful giving Purdue too much credit going forward. They probably won’t enjoy a 5-0 turnover advantage again.
Iowa 31, Maryland 15
This one finished close to the market expectations…so it’s easy to overlook. Iowa actually played pretty poorly here for a 17-point favorite. Yards-per-play was just 4.3 to 4.2 for the hosts…which is terrible against a bad team like Maryland. The Hawkeyes needed a 4/1 edge in turnovers and a 38% to 10% advantage in third downs to push the scoreboard margin up to where they still couldn’t cover. A flat performance hidden by opposition turnovers. That 4.3 to 4.2 mark in YPP is glaring if you’ve studied Maryland all season.
Stanford 30, Washington State 28
Tricky one here…because Washington State won total yardage 442-312 and missed what would have been the game winning field goal in the final seconds. Easy to think Stanford’s win was a gift if you only look at those two facts. Wazzou ran a lot more plays because of the nature of their offense (86-59). Yards-per-play actually went to Stanford 5.3 to 5.1. The Cardinal also won third down conversions 31% to 14%. Turnovers were even at 2-2. Those last few stats are consistent with Stanford squeezing out a nailbiter. This is why many handicappers prefer YPP over raw yardage as a storyteller. Definitely a flashback to Stanford’s season opener at Northwestern. This group has trouble bringing peak intensity 12 times a season. They’re a national power when focused. When not…they play nailbiters with teams like Northwestern and Washington State. This final score actually isn’t all that misleading. But, there was so much chatter about WSU’s yardage edge Saturday night that I wanted to include some context.
Tennessee 52, Kentucky 21
Goes on the list because Tennessee had a kickoff return TD, a punt return TD, and a 4-yard touchdown drive. They were the best team by a good bit…but scoreboard margin overstates the case. Tennessee won yardage 482-349, yards-per-play 7.0 to 5.4, and third down conversions 53% to 15%. Shade about 10-14 points off the margin to get a better sense of the two teams moving forward.
