Misleading Final Scores From Week 13

TheDailyEdge

Pretty much a regular
Iowa 28, Nebraska 20 (Friday)
It’s easy to overreact to the boxscore at first glance, as Nebraska won total yardage 433-250 in a game where Iowa had a defensive touchdown. But, yardage was inflated because of a huge 88-44 discrepancy in plays run. Iowa actually won yards-per-play 5.7 to 5.2, and then the turnover category 4-1. Still, the Hawkeyes aren’t exactly rolling into the Big 12 Championship game on fire given an 0 for 9 performance on third downs. Tricky because Iowa wasn’t as outclassed as raw yardage makes it look, but wasn’t as sharp as a 28-20 road win in a market coin flip makes it look either. They can’t count on a big TO edge and a defensive score vs. Michigan State next week.


Michigan State 55, Penn State 16
If you were only scoreboard watching here because more appealing games were on TV, you may have gotten the impression that Michigan State had finally found themselves after knocking off Ohio State. Not really. Total yardage was only 436-418. Michigan State won the turnover category 4-1, scoring on a fumble return TD, an INT return TD, and on a short 9-yard TD drive. Amazingly, Iowa and MSU were outgained 851-686 by Nebraska and Penn State but won turnovers 8-2 on their way to three combined non-offensive TDs. Could be a very tight Big 12 Championship with both offenses trying not to give the ball away.

BYU 51, Utah State 28
Weird one…where Utah State jumped ahead then BYU stormed back. Total yardage was 445-358 for Utah State, though BYU won yards-per-play 5.9 to 5.1 and the turnover category 2-0. BYU did have a fumble return TD. Best to think of it as the right team winning the game…but you’re not supposed to score 51 points on only 358 yards!


Florida State 27, Florida 2
Another one you may have skipped because more important TV games were on other channels. This was expected to be a defensive struggle, and was! Florida State’s “27” looks fairly explosive. But, they only had two long scoring drives, went just 2 of 14 on third down tries, and settled in at 5.2 yards-per-play. Clean win and cover…but FSU’s offense may still be in some trouble come bowl time. They weren’t as good as “27” made it look…and they were facing an opponent that was much more concerned about its SEC Championship battle with Alabama next week.


USC 40, UCLA 21
USC won total yardage 410-367 and was better at moving the ball given their 42% to 29% edge in third down conversions. But, they were able to pad their scoring with a punt return TD and a fumble return TD. This wasn’t quite the blowout the scoreboard suggested, which is why USC initially opened at +4 vs. Stanford in the Pac 12 Championship game instead of something more respected. USC didn’t impress recently at Colorado or Oregon, and wasn’t as good here as the score made it seem.

 
I think Alabama 29 AU 13 is misleading for both sides at the same time, if that makes sense. On the surface, it was much closer as Alabama scored a TD inside a minute left to go from 22-13 to 29-13 (and the cover!). But stat wise, it was a game that Alabama dominated, finishing with more rushing yards than AU has in total yards. AU's lone TD was on a somewhat fortunate play on 3rd and 12 where the WR was able to tip an overthrown ball to himself and catch in stride for a 77 yard TD. Other than that, AU struggled to move the ball. Box looks like this:

[TABLE="class: mod-data, width: 522"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: thin; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204);">[TR="class: header"]
[TH="align: left"]Matchup[/TH]
[TH]
i
[/TH]
[TH]
i
[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]5-16[/TD]
[TD]3-15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]465[/TD]
[TD]260[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]179[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att[/TD]
[TD]17-26[/TD]
[TD]10-23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass[/TD]
[TD]6.9[/TD]
[TD]7.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]286[/TD]
[TD]91[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush[/TD]
[TD]5.7[/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]7-65[/TD]
[TD]8-62[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]35:23[/TD]
[TD]24:37[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
I'll also respectfully disagree with the last comment in the FSU/UF game. Everything I got out of Jortsville and from my friends who know that program well say that UF was really wanting to win this game. FSU been really jawing at them and double-revenge angle, as well as new coach, recruiting game, "state championship", etc. While the SEC title game would be a nice so-called look-ahead, no one is overlooking the two biggest powers in Florida in the last 22 years.
 
Discussed on the related thread last week, but Florida had a dozen players on its injury report going into the FSU game. I don't know how many couldn't / didn't play, especially with the title game on the horizon, but that had to have been a big factor in the FSU outcome.
 
I'll also respectfully disagree with the last comment in the FSU/UF game. Everything I got out of Jortsville and from my friends who know that program well say that UF was really wanting to win this game. FSU been really jawing at them and double-revenge angle, as well as new coach, recruiting game, "state championship", etc. While the SEC title game would be a nice so-called look-ahead, no one is overlooking the two biggest powers in Florida in the last 22 years.

Agree w/ CKR here. Coming into the game, UF's injury report was a who's-who of UF stars. Reality set in and they all played. If this were a look-ahead, those players would have sat and got healthier.
 
one wide receiver got suspended, but what did that matter? who was going to throw him the ball? I am frankly astonished by the previous administration's inability to recruit more than one (yes i know the white kid got suspended for HGH) quarterback from one of the easiest recruiting grounds in the entire country in that state.
 
i won't comment much because i need to wach the film from the Iron Bowl yet before I am confident in my number for the SEC championship game... but Florida's QB has literally zero chance at figuring out at where the ball should go. Against Bama, McElwain will have to pull out all the stops vs. Kirby's D because they can't move the ball conventionally at all for more than a first down or two. To compete, multiple trick plays will probably need to be employed and the QB should be instructed to go to his first read everytime, which means that fuckin guy better find a way to get open. Turnovers will bury them, and it's partially a shame because the coach and defense were good enough to find a way to get to this game.
 
one wide receiver got suspended, but what did that matter? who was going to throw him the ball? I am frankly astonished by the previous administration's inability to recruit more than one (yes i know the white kid got suspended for HGH) quarterback from one of the easiest recruiting grounds in the entire country in that state.

I too was just amazed at the ineptitude of the Gators QB. If that kid plays like that again this week Florida won't cross midfield unless Bama turns it over in their own end.
 
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