Timberwolves vs. Jazz NBA Picks and Predictions
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Utah Jazz
Saturday, December 26, 2020 at 9 p.m. ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah
Minnesota’s Season Opener: Detroit’s Strategy
It’s important to look at Minnesota’s season opener. By looking at the strategy that Minnesota’s opponent (Detroit) pursued and by understanding why that strategy failed, I can properly contextualize my analysis of Utah’s upcoming match-up.
Detroit clearly understood that Minnesota has issues with its big men. At the power forward position, Jake Layman and Juancho Hernangomez combined for a -22 in the plus/minus category. They were nonexistent on offense and showed nothing on defense.
Their lameness on defense exacerbated an already existing problem for the Timberwolves, which is lack of interior defense. Center Karl Anthony-Towns has never been known for his defense.
Last year, compared with 72 centers, Karl-Anthony Towns ranked last by a large margin in defensive plus/minus.
So a big hope for Minnesota was to procure a power forward who could alleviate Karl-Anthony Towns’ defensive burden, somebody who could reduce his need to make as many decisions as he does and who could in general take away defensive responsibility from him.
Josh Okogie is a versatile Timberwolves player who, extending into his college days at Georgia Tech, has always been more attentive to his defensive responsibilities.
He has a solid enough wingspan and was decidedly a promising enough candidate to employ at the four.
Still, Okogie is vastly undersized. Seeing him attempt to guard Piston center Blake Griffin was a sight for the ages.
Given its strength and size advantage in the interior, Detroit clearly wanted to attack inside.
Game film shows that, on ball-screens, Minnesota gladly executed drop coverage.
With drop coverage, a defense encourages the opposing ball-handler to drive or dares him to attempt a jump shot.
You could see an example of what I’m saying at 42 seconds in the following video:
Delon Wright could not have more space to attempt an open three after his teammate sets a screen for him.
But Wright chooses to drive inside, anyways.
Minnesota defeated Detroit largely because the Pistons failed to effectively attack and exploit the Timberwolves’ supposedly weak interior.
Griffin, for example, was only 6-for-13 despite being guarded often by the much smaller Okogie. Okogie did not permit Griffin many easy shot opportunities.
While Okogie was heroic, Timberwolves defenders were able to be disruptive inside by digging and by collapsing towards the paint.
At 4:15 in the following video, you see Minnesota players collapse inside towards a Piston player who kicks it back out.
Predictably, the Piston player’s teammate passes up the shot opportunity in order to drive inside.
What Detroit’s Strategy Showed About Minnesota’s Weaknesses
Detroit thought that it was equipped to dominate the Timberwolves in front of the basket.
In turn, the Pistons were not equipped to shoot so well from three especially since stud shooter Luke Kennard departed from the team.
While the Pistons passed up on many three-point shooting opportunities, they showed that it is still easy to accrue open three-point shot attempts agains the Timberwolves defense.
Detroit showed this with its ball-screen offense. Like last year, where Minnesota had one of the worst defenses against the pick-and-roll ball-handler in terms of PPP (points per possession), the Timberwolves will consistently employ drop coverage.
Detroit also showed this with its drive game. By attacking inside or simply by passing it to a big inside, Detroit easily attracts help defense from Minnesota, which needs to be extra energetic in order to compensate for the team's undersized and poor interior defense.
This extra effort from the help defense encourages the opposing offense to attempt more open three-point shot attempts.
How Utah’s Offense Can Take Advantage
Entering this season, Utah’s stated goal was to attempt more threes.
This is a fitting goal for a team that led the NBA last year by converting 38.3 percent of its three-point attempts.
Utah is filled with able shooters: Mike Conley, a career 37.5-percent three-point shooter, Bojan Bogdanovic, a career 39.4-percent three-point shooter, Joe Ingles, a career 40.7-percent three-point shooter, and the list goes on.
Plus, the Jazz are extremely comfortable with their pick-and-roll ball-handler offense, which they execute efficiently in terms of PPP.
With this offensive style, guys like offensive centerpiece Donovan Mitchell will drive inside in order to attract the Timberwolves help defense and kick it to an open shooter.
Moreover, Utah’s shooters will feast upon Minnesota’s drop coverage.
Defensively, the Timberwolves will really miss Okogie with his wingspan on the perimeter as they instead use him inside at the four.
Rudy Gobert
Utah benefits massively tonight from having two-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert at center because his counterpart is Minnesota’s most important player, Karl-Anthony Towns.
In three games against Utah last year, Karl-Anthony Towns was uniquely dependent on the three-pointer because Gobert is so solid in the interior.
The thing is, Gobert is also comfortable guarding the perimeter. Gobert can hold his own when switched onto a guard and he can disrupt Karl-Anthony Towns’ endeavor to shoot from three.
Because Gobert is defensively so versatile, Karl-Anthony Towns had his second-worst field goal percentage against Utah, out of all the teams that he encountered multiple times last season.
While he struggles, a lot of burden will be placed on D’Angelo Russell and a host of very young talent that doesn’t reliably take advantage of good looks inside.
The Verdict
Utah will thrive against Minnesota’s characteristically bad pick-and-roll defense by employing multiple shooters to punish its drop screen coverage tendencies and to reap the fruits of Donovan Mitchell’s dribble penetration.
Defensively, the Jazz will limit Karl-Anthony Towns and place too much weight on developing rookies and second-year players.
Best Bet: Jazz -8 at -108 with Heritage
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Utah Jazz
Saturday, December 26, 2020 at 9 p.m. ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah
Minnesota’s Season Opener: Detroit’s Strategy
It’s important to look at Minnesota’s season opener. By looking at the strategy that Minnesota’s opponent (Detroit) pursued and by understanding why that strategy failed, I can properly contextualize my analysis of Utah’s upcoming match-up.
Detroit clearly understood that Minnesota has issues with its big men. At the power forward position, Jake Layman and Juancho Hernangomez combined for a -22 in the plus/minus category. They were nonexistent on offense and showed nothing on defense.
Their lameness on defense exacerbated an already existing problem for the Timberwolves, which is lack of interior defense. Center Karl Anthony-Towns has never been known for his defense.
Last year, compared with 72 centers, Karl-Anthony Towns ranked last by a large margin in defensive plus/minus.
So a big hope for Minnesota was to procure a power forward who could alleviate Karl-Anthony Towns’ defensive burden, somebody who could reduce his need to make as many decisions as he does and who could in general take away defensive responsibility from him.
Josh Okogie is a versatile Timberwolves player who, extending into his college days at Georgia Tech, has always been more attentive to his defensive responsibilities.
He has a solid enough wingspan and was decidedly a promising enough candidate to employ at the four.
Still, Okogie is vastly undersized. Seeing him attempt to guard Piston center Blake Griffin was a sight for the ages.
Given its strength and size advantage in the interior, Detroit clearly wanted to attack inside.
Game film shows that, on ball-screens, Minnesota gladly executed drop coverage.
With drop coverage, a defense encourages the opposing ball-handler to drive or dares him to attempt a jump shot.
You could see an example of what I’m saying at 42 seconds in the following video:
Delon Wright could not have more space to attempt an open three after his teammate sets a screen for him.
But Wright chooses to drive inside, anyways.
Minnesota defeated Detroit largely because the Pistons failed to effectively attack and exploit the Timberwolves’ supposedly weak interior.
Griffin, for example, was only 6-for-13 despite being guarded often by the much smaller Okogie. Okogie did not permit Griffin many easy shot opportunities.
While Okogie was heroic, Timberwolves defenders were able to be disruptive inside by digging and by collapsing towards the paint.
At 4:15 in the following video, you see Minnesota players collapse inside towards a Piston player who kicks it back out.
Predictably, the Piston player’s teammate passes up the shot opportunity in order to drive inside.
What Detroit’s Strategy Showed About Minnesota’s Weaknesses
Detroit thought that it was equipped to dominate the Timberwolves in front of the basket.
In turn, the Pistons were not equipped to shoot so well from three especially since stud shooter Luke Kennard departed from the team.
While the Pistons passed up on many three-point shooting opportunities, they showed that it is still easy to accrue open three-point shot attempts agains the Timberwolves defense.
Detroit showed this with its ball-screen offense. Like last year, where Minnesota had one of the worst defenses against the pick-and-roll ball-handler in terms of PPP (points per possession), the Timberwolves will consistently employ drop coverage.
Detroit also showed this with its drive game. By attacking inside or simply by passing it to a big inside, Detroit easily attracts help defense from Minnesota, which needs to be extra energetic in order to compensate for the team's undersized and poor interior defense.
This extra effort from the help defense encourages the opposing offense to attempt more open three-point shot attempts.
How Utah’s Offense Can Take Advantage
Entering this season, Utah’s stated goal was to attempt more threes.
This is a fitting goal for a team that led the NBA last year by converting 38.3 percent of its three-point attempts.
Utah is filled with able shooters: Mike Conley, a career 37.5-percent three-point shooter, Bojan Bogdanovic, a career 39.4-percent three-point shooter, Joe Ingles, a career 40.7-percent three-point shooter, and the list goes on.
Plus, the Jazz are extremely comfortable with their pick-and-roll ball-handler offense, which they execute efficiently in terms of PPP.
With this offensive style, guys like offensive centerpiece Donovan Mitchell will drive inside in order to attract the Timberwolves help defense and kick it to an open shooter.
Moreover, Utah’s shooters will feast upon Minnesota’s drop coverage.
Defensively, the Timberwolves will really miss Okogie with his wingspan on the perimeter as they instead use him inside at the four.
Rudy Gobert
Utah benefits massively tonight from having two-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert at center because his counterpart is Minnesota’s most important player, Karl-Anthony Towns.
In three games against Utah last year, Karl-Anthony Towns was uniquely dependent on the three-pointer because Gobert is so solid in the interior.
The thing is, Gobert is also comfortable guarding the perimeter. Gobert can hold his own when switched onto a guard and he can disrupt Karl-Anthony Towns’ endeavor to shoot from three.
Because Gobert is defensively so versatile, Karl-Anthony Towns had his second-worst field goal percentage against Utah, out of all the teams that he encountered multiple times last season.
While he struggles, a lot of burden will be placed on D’Angelo Russell and a host of very young talent that doesn’t reliably take advantage of good looks inside.
The Verdict
Utah will thrive against Minnesota’s characteristically bad pick-and-roll defense by employing multiple shooters to punish its drop screen coverage tendencies and to reap the fruits of Donovan Mitchell’s dribble penetration.
Defensively, the Jazz will limit Karl-Anthony Towns and place too much weight on developing rookies and second-year players.
Best Bet: Jazz -8 at -108 with Heritage
