NCAAF Bowls Parlay (+253) For This Week: Minnesota to Run Over Limping Syracuse
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Syracuse Orange
Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 2 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Best Bet: Golden Gophers -9.5 at -118 & Over 41.5 at -110 at +253 odds with BetOnline
Syracuse's Front Seven
Already before this season, Syracuse's front seven faced immense concerns because its top four and five of its top six defensive linemen departed.
As if these six departures didn't create a sizable enough need, Syracuse during the regular season had two defensive linemen,Denis Jaquez and Terry Lockett, suffer season-ending injuries.
Given this weakness in terms of front seven personnel, the Orange are uniquely vulnerable to teams that run the ball well.
Syracuse Patterns
While the Orange front seven is vulnerable, its secondary has been a strength.
As such, a pattern emerged during the regular season: Syracuse tended to beat teams that do not rely on their rush attack to succeed.
The Orange beat Purdue and Virginia teams whose strengths are in their pass attack -- Purdue has a pass-heavy offense featuring a strong quarterback-wide receiver combo, and Virginia has great wide receivers.
Likewise, the Orange beat NC State and its anemic rush attack from which irreplaceable NFL-caliber running backs departed before this season.
On the other side, Syracuse was blown out by a run-first Notre Dame team that prides itself on physicality.
In that game, Notre Dame scored 41 points while running the ball an amazing 56 times. The Irish amassed 246 rushing yards.
The Orange front seven were likewise bullied by Clemson, to give another example.
To reiterate my key point, it became clear that strong rush attacks should be relied upon to overwhelm the Orange defense.
Further Missing Orange Pieces
But now Syracuse's secondary is debilitated.
Starting defensive backs Duce Chestnut, a cornerback, and Ja'Had Carter a safety, will not participate in Thursday's contest since they entered the transfer portal.
Furthermore, fellow starting cornerback and future NFL player Garrett Wiliams suffered a season-ending knee injury.
Another key Syracuse absence is its defensive coordinator, Tony White, who won't coach Thursday's bowl game after taking a job at Nebraska.
While we can't pretend that every single Golden Gopher piece is present -- Minnesota misses a starting-caliber linebacker and safety -- Syracuse's absences on defense are pervasive and debilitating.
Syracuse's front seven and its secondary are both extremely thin, and now the entire defense misses its coordinator, too.
Minnesota's Physical Rush Attack
In line with teams like Notre Dame, Minnesota has a run-first identity -- the Golden Gophers own the nation's fourth-highest run-play percentage.
Minnesota features an offensive line that prides itself on age and physicality, again rendering it similar to the sort of teams that thrived against Syracuse even before the Orange secondary lost key personnel.
Golden Gopher offensive linemen are grown men who, on average, weigh about 320 pounds.
They helped Minnesota own the nation's 15th-highest rush attack, which is all the more amazing in view of the somewhat slow development of Minnesota's young quarterback when he replaced the team's veteran signal-caller.
Mohamed Ibrahim
Running back Mohamed Ibrahim is arguably the biggest reason for the success of Minnesota's rush attack.
He is a physical running back whose strength makes him difficult to bring down. Besides possessing brute strength, he is explosive and smooth.
His skill set enabled him to amass an absurd 1,594 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC and 19 rushing touchdowns this season.
It is no exaggeration to say that he might be the best running back that vulnerable Syracuse will have seen this season.
Quarterback Situation
No matter who starts at quarterback for Minnesota -- veteran Tanner Morgan has returned to practice -- the Golden Gophers will no longer suffer from one-dimensionality on offense.
Youngster Athan Kaliakmanis took time to develop but has grown tremendously.
In his last start, he achieved a superb 180.7 passer rating while leading his team to a win over rival Wisconsin.
Kaliakmanis, in that game, made several big throws and was highly efficient.
He or the usual starter Morgan will flourish against Syracuse's decimated secondary.
Missing Syracuse Pieces on Offense
It is not just the Orange defense that misses crucial pieces.
Syracuse's offense will miss starting running back Sean Tucker, who opted out of his team's bowl game, as well as tackle Matthew Bergeron, who will likewise focus on preparing for the upcoming NFL Draft.
Furthermore, the Orange will miss offensive coordinator Robert Anae who has left the team to take a gig at North Carolina State.
Orange Offense vs. Golden Gopher Defense
Syracuse's rush attack was always going to have a tough time against Minnesota's nationally 18th-ranked run defense.
But losing its 1,000-yard rusher Tucker, who had almost 200 more carries than any other Orange running back, means that it lacks the personnel to challenge Minnesota's run defense with.
Spearheaded by a well-rounded secondary that features All-Big Ten safety Tyler Nubin alongside other playmakers, the Golden Gopher pass defense ranks eighth nationally.
Orange quarterback Garrett Shrader has thrived against the weakest defenses he's faced, but he's been atrocious against other highly-ranked pass defenses -- his passer rating was 71.6 while he threw for all of 65 yards against Florida State's third-ranked pass defense, for example.
He will likewise fail to get anything going against Minnesota.
Parlay Verdict
Minnesota will exceed 30 points against Syracuse's emaciate defense, leaving the Orange offense little to have to do in order to ensure that the "over" hits.
For the above reaosns, expect something like a 34-13 Golden Gopher win.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Syracuse Orange
Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 2 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Best Bet: Golden Gophers -9.5 at -118 & Over 41.5 at -110 at +253 odds with BetOnline
Syracuse's Front Seven
Already before this season, Syracuse's front seven faced immense concerns because its top four and five of its top six defensive linemen departed.
As if these six departures didn't create a sizable enough need, Syracuse during the regular season had two defensive linemen,Denis Jaquez and Terry Lockett, suffer season-ending injuries.
Given this weakness in terms of front seven personnel, the Orange are uniquely vulnerable to teams that run the ball well.
Syracuse Patterns
While the Orange front seven is vulnerable, its secondary has been a strength.
As such, a pattern emerged during the regular season: Syracuse tended to beat teams that do not rely on their rush attack to succeed.
The Orange beat Purdue and Virginia teams whose strengths are in their pass attack -- Purdue has a pass-heavy offense featuring a strong quarterback-wide receiver combo, and Virginia has great wide receivers.
Likewise, the Orange beat NC State and its anemic rush attack from which irreplaceable NFL-caliber running backs departed before this season.
On the other side, Syracuse was blown out by a run-first Notre Dame team that prides itself on physicality.
In that game, Notre Dame scored 41 points while running the ball an amazing 56 times. The Irish amassed 246 rushing yards.
The Orange front seven were likewise bullied by Clemson, to give another example.
To reiterate my key point, it became clear that strong rush attacks should be relied upon to overwhelm the Orange defense.
Further Missing Orange Pieces
But now Syracuse's secondary is debilitated.
Starting defensive backs Duce Chestnut, a cornerback, and Ja'Had Carter a safety, will not participate in Thursday's contest since they entered the transfer portal.
Furthermore, fellow starting cornerback and future NFL player Garrett Wiliams suffered a season-ending knee injury.
Another key Syracuse absence is its defensive coordinator, Tony White, who won't coach Thursday's bowl game after taking a job at Nebraska.
While we can't pretend that every single Golden Gopher piece is present -- Minnesota misses a starting-caliber linebacker and safety -- Syracuse's absences on defense are pervasive and debilitating.
Syracuse's front seven and its secondary are both extremely thin, and now the entire defense misses its coordinator, too.
Minnesota's Physical Rush Attack
In line with teams like Notre Dame, Minnesota has a run-first identity -- the Golden Gophers own the nation's fourth-highest run-play percentage.
Minnesota features an offensive line that prides itself on age and physicality, again rendering it similar to the sort of teams that thrived against Syracuse even before the Orange secondary lost key personnel.
Golden Gopher offensive linemen are grown men who, on average, weigh about 320 pounds.
They helped Minnesota own the nation's 15th-highest rush attack, which is all the more amazing in view of the somewhat slow development of Minnesota's young quarterback when he replaced the team's veteran signal-caller.
Mohamed Ibrahim
Running back Mohamed Ibrahim is arguably the biggest reason for the success of Minnesota's rush attack.
He is a physical running back whose strength makes him difficult to bring down. Besides possessing brute strength, he is explosive and smooth.
His skill set enabled him to amass an absurd 1,594 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC and 19 rushing touchdowns this season.
It is no exaggeration to say that he might be the best running back that vulnerable Syracuse will have seen this season.
Quarterback Situation
No matter who starts at quarterback for Minnesota -- veteran Tanner Morgan has returned to practice -- the Golden Gophers will no longer suffer from one-dimensionality on offense.
Youngster Athan Kaliakmanis took time to develop but has grown tremendously.
In his last start, he achieved a superb 180.7 passer rating while leading his team to a win over rival Wisconsin.
Kaliakmanis, in that game, made several big throws and was highly efficient.
He or the usual starter Morgan will flourish against Syracuse's decimated secondary.
Missing Syracuse Pieces on Offense
It is not just the Orange defense that misses crucial pieces.
Syracuse's offense will miss starting running back Sean Tucker, who opted out of his team's bowl game, as well as tackle Matthew Bergeron, who will likewise focus on preparing for the upcoming NFL Draft.
Furthermore, the Orange will miss offensive coordinator Robert Anae who has left the team to take a gig at North Carolina State.
Orange Offense vs. Golden Gopher Defense
Syracuse's rush attack was always going to have a tough time against Minnesota's nationally 18th-ranked run defense.
But losing its 1,000-yard rusher Tucker, who had almost 200 more carries than any other Orange running back, means that it lacks the personnel to challenge Minnesota's run defense with.
Spearheaded by a well-rounded secondary that features All-Big Ten safety Tyler Nubin alongside other playmakers, the Golden Gopher pass defense ranks eighth nationally.
Orange quarterback Garrett Shrader has thrived against the weakest defenses he's faced, but he's been atrocious against other highly-ranked pass defenses -- his passer rating was 71.6 while he threw for all of 65 yards against Florida State's third-ranked pass defense, for example.
He will likewise fail to get anything going against Minnesota.
Parlay Verdict
Minnesota will exceed 30 points against Syracuse's emaciate defense, leaving the Orange offense little to have to do in order to ensure that the "over" hits.
For the above reaosns, expect something like a 34-13 Golden Gopher win.
