NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Monday, February, 8, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
Minnesota Offense vs. Dallas Defense: Ball-Screens
The Timberwolves frequently run a pick-and-roll action for its ball-handler.
They will execute different kinds of pick-and-roll actions.
For example, they like to spread out a defense by keeping four guys behind the perimeter.
In spreading out the defense, Minnesota keeps opposing defenders tied to the perimeter.
Then more room will open up inside for the Minnesota ball-handler to navigate.
Minnesota’s spread formation on ball-screens will put pressure on opposing rim protectors since the help defense is rather tied to the perimeter.
I like the Timberwolves' ball-screen plan tonight because Dallas’ rim protection needs all the help it can get and then some.
Evidence of the Mavericks’ poor rim protection lies in the fact that they own the sixth-highest opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
The Mavs also rank 22nd in block rate.
Specifically, ball-screen defense is a significant problem for Dallas, which ranks third-to-last in limiting opposing PPP (points per possession) on the pick-and-roll ball-handler.
It’s not just simple spread formations that Minnesota will show, either. The T-Wolves will also run some actions, before employing the pick-and-roll for its main ball-handler, in order to thrust the defense out of position.
You can see an example of Minnesota’s maneuvering below:
Dallas Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
A similar story can be told: Dallas runs the pick-and-roll ball-handler play type at one of the highest frequencies while Minnesota is one of the worst defenses in defending this play type based on opposing PPP.
You can see an example here of one key defender getting lost while trying to guard a pick-and-roll.
At the bottom of the screen, you see Anthony Edwards get caught up in the screen. As a result, the opponent gets an easy dunk.
What interests me more than ball screens is the Maverick shot profile. NBA talking headings like Charles Barkley have criticized Dallas for shooting too many threes.
But recent numbers don’t back Chuck up. In the past three games, the Mavs are converting 39.4 percent of their three-point opportunities.
As a season-long number, 39.4 would place them fifth in the NBA.
Several Mav players have missed time due to COVID-related reasons.
But they are repairing their chemistry together.
Percentage-wise, Dallas is good at procuring open threes.
One player who Dallas is glad to have back is Maxi Kleber. He’s converting 45.8 percent of his three-point opportunities this season.
Kleber can also space the floor, which helps other teammates get open.
D’Angelo Russell
Minnesota’s starting point guard is listed as ‘questionable’ for tonight’s game.
But don’t let his injury status affect your betting choices because I like the “over” for this game regardless.
When Russell is unable to play, the Timberwolves’ defense misses his depth and is forced to rely more on awful defenders like Jordan McLaughlin.
In the four games that Russell has missed this year, the “over” is a perfect 4-0.
Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs
Monday, February 8, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Central in San Antonio, Texas
injury Situation
While both teams will miss meaningful players, the injury situation absolutely favors San Antonio.
For Golden State, center James Wiseman is listed as ‘out indefinitely.’
Wiseman’s loss is important because he was a big reason why the Warriors won the last match-up between these two teams.
On January 20, Wiseman was his team’s second-leading scorer as the Spurs’ inability to stop him proved decisive.
It is true that the Spurs will miss a starter — center LaMarcus Aldridge — for this game.
But I really like Aldrige’s backup, Jakob Poeltl.
Aldridge is a liability on the defensive end. In contrast, Poeltl’s defense is solid.
The difference in defensive rating between these two players is 23.2 points, which is a huge difference.
Aldridge is slow and struggles rotating out to opposing shooters.
Poeltl is more nimble. Aldridge’s absence will be a blessing tonight because the Warriors will play more small-ball without Wiseman.
Small ball would overwhelm Aldridge. But Poeltl has the physical skill set to handle it.
Spurs Offense vs. Warriors Defense
Offensively, San Antonio is a relatively ball-screen-heavy team.
With this play type, the Spurs are dangerous largely because of DeMar DeRozan.
DeRozan is averaging 20.5 points per game this season largely due to his ability to attack the rim.
Off a pick-and-roll, he can attack or create for a teammate.
He’ll help the Spurs thrive against a Warrior defense that ranks ninth-worst in limiting opposing PPP on this play type.
Warriors Offense vs. Spurs Defense
On offense, the Warriors are uniquely dependent on shooting threes.
They average the seventh-most three-point attempts per game.
This reliance on three-pointers makes them unreliable tonight against the Spurs’ defense.
I like San Antonio defensively because, scheme-wise, the Spurs focus on running opponents off the three-point line.
Especially without Aldridge on the court, the Spurs can switch on ball-screens, which they love to do anyways.
In switching, Spur defenders will stay on their respective man.
Ball-screen defensive scheme is just one reason why the Spurs allow the second-lowest rate of wide open threes and one of the lower rates of open threes.
The Verdict
Execution on ball-screens and three-pointers will be themes in the “over” between Minnesota and Dallas.
Perimeter defense and superiority on ball-screen actions explain why the Spurs will beat Golden State.
Best Bet: Parlay Timberwolves/Mavericks Over 222.5 at -110 & Spurs PK at -110 at +264 odds at Bovada
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Monday, February, 8, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
Minnesota Offense vs. Dallas Defense: Ball-Screens
The Timberwolves frequently run a pick-and-roll action for its ball-handler.
They will execute different kinds of pick-and-roll actions.
For example, they like to spread out a defense by keeping four guys behind the perimeter.
In spreading out the defense, Minnesota keeps opposing defenders tied to the perimeter.
Then more room will open up inside for the Minnesota ball-handler to navigate.
Minnesota’s spread formation on ball-screens will put pressure on opposing rim protectors since the help defense is rather tied to the perimeter.
I like the Timberwolves' ball-screen plan tonight because Dallas’ rim protection needs all the help it can get and then some.
Evidence of the Mavericks’ poor rim protection lies in the fact that they own the sixth-highest opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
The Mavs also rank 22nd in block rate.
Specifically, ball-screen defense is a significant problem for Dallas, which ranks third-to-last in limiting opposing PPP (points per possession) on the pick-and-roll ball-handler.
It’s not just simple spread formations that Minnesota will show, either. The T-Wolves will also run some actions, before employing the pick-and-roll for its main ball-handler, in order to thrust the defense out of position.
You can see an example of Minnesota’s maneuvering below:
Dallas Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
A similar story can be told: Dallas runs the pick-and-roll ball-handler play type at one of the highest frequencies while Minnesota is one of the worst defenses in defending this play type based on opposing PPP.
You can see an example here of one key defender getting lost while trying to guard a pick-and-roll.
At the bottom of the screen, you see Anthony Edwards get caught up in the screen. As a result, the opponent gets an easy dunk.
What interests me more than ball screens is the Maverick shot profile. NBA talking headings like Charles Barkley have criticized Dallas for shooting too many threes.
But recent numbers don’t back Chuck up. In the past three games, the Mavs are converting 39.4 percent of their three-point opportunities.
As a season-long number, 39.4 would place them fifth in the NBA.
Several Mav players have missed time due to COVID-related reasons.
But they are repairing their chemistry together.
Percentage-wise, Dallas is good at procuring open threes.
One player who Dallas is glad to have back is Maxi Kleber. He’s converting 45.8 percent of his three-point opportunities this season.
Kleber can also space the floor, which helps other teammates get open.
D’Angelo Russell
Minnesota’s starting point guard is listed as ‘questionable’ for tonight’s game.
But don’t let his injury status affect your betting choices because I like the “over” for this game regardless.
When Russell is unable to play, the Timberwolves’ defense misses his depth and is forced to rely more on awful defenders like Jordan McLaughlin.
In the four games that Russell has missed this year, the “over” is a perfect 4-0.
Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs
Monday, February 8, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Central in San Antonio, Texas
injury Situation
While both teams will miss meaningful players, the injury situation absolutely favors San Antonio.
For Golden State, center James Wiseman is listed as ‘out indefinitely.’
Wiseman’s loss is important because he was a big reason why the Warriors won the last match-up between these two teams.
On January 20, Wiseman was his team’s second-leading scorer as the Spurs’ inability to stop him proved decisive.
It is true that the Spurs will miss a starter — center LaMarcus Aldridge — for this game.
But I really like Aldrige’s backup, Jakob Poeltl.
Aldridge is a liability on the defensive end. In contrast, Poeltl’s defense is solid.
The difference in defensive rating between these two players is 23.2 points, which is a huge difference.
Aldridge is slow and struggles rotating out to opposing shooters.
Poeltl is more nimble. Aldridge’s absence will be a blessing tonight because the Warriors will play more small-ball without Wiseman.
Small ball would overwhelm Aldridge. But Poeltl has the physical skill set to handle it.
Spurs Offense vs. Warriors Defense
Offensively, San Antonio is a relatively ball-screen-heavy team.
With this play type, the Spurs are dangerous largely because of DeMar DeRozan.
DeRozan is averaging 20.5 points per game this season largely due to his ability to attack the rim.
Off a pick-and-roll, he can attack or create for a teammate.
He’ll help the Spurs thrive against a Warrior defense that ranks ninth-worst in limiting opposing PPP on this play type.
Warriors Offense vs. Spurs Defense
On offense, the Warriors are uniquely dependent on shooting threes.
They average the seventh-most three-point attempts per game.
This reliance on three-pointers makes them unreliable tonight against the Spurs’ defense.
I like San Antonio defensively because, scheme-wise, the Spurs focus on running opponents off the three-point line.
Especially without Aldridge on the court, the Spurs can switch on ball-screens, which they love to do anyways.
In switching, Spur defenders will stay on their respective man.
Ball-screen defensive scheme is just one reason why the Spurs allow the second-lowest rate of wide open threes and one of the lower rates of open threes.
The Verdict
Execution on ball-screens and three-pointers will be themes in the “over” between Minnesota and Dallas.
Perimeter defense and superiority on ball-screen actions explain why the Spurs will beat Golden State.
Best Bet: Parlay Timberwolves/Mavericks Over 222.5 at -110 & Spurs PK at -110 at +264 odds at Bovada
