Baseballs Will Be Space-Bound In Minnesota-Detroit Clash
Minnesota (41-20) at Detroit (23-36)
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Half Over & Full-Game Over
Detroit's Matt Boyd (5-4, 3.01 ERA) may seem reliable given his low ERA. He has made his pitches more deceptive by drastically lowering his arm slot and adding more spin.
While these adjustments have allowed the southpaw to perform well against most teams, he still has a weakness against the stronger lineups against left-handed pitching. So far, he has faced three teams that rank top-10 in slugging against southpaws. He yielded a 5.40 ERA against Atlanta, which ranks sixth against lefties, a 5.68 ERA against Oakland, which ranks second in the category, and a 6.75 ERA against Houston, which ranks fourth in the category. Minnesota ranks third.
Right-handed batters are responsible for all eight homers and 10 of the 12 doubles that Boyd has allowed. The classic weapon against opposite-handed batters is the change-up. But Boyd barely feels comfortable throwing his.
Boyd throws his fastball with 50% frequency. It moves towards right-handed batters and he does a much worse job placing it inside against them than he does against left-handed batters. Instead, he leaves it more often in hittable parts of the plate. His fastballs land with 7.21% down the middle against righties compared to 4.92% against lefties. As a result, righties slug .402 against his fastball, lefties only .177.
The Twins are stacked with right-handed hitting, which has helped it score five runs or more in five of its last six games. Watch out for Jorge Polanco, who has a seven-game hitting streak, during which he has four multi-hit games, three doubles, and a homer. Marwin Gonzalez is 4-for-9 (.444) with two doubles and a triple against Boyd.
I also like the full-game 'over' because Detroit's bullpen is seventh-worst in terms of ERA and is filled with guys who have an ERA over 4.00.
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Minnesota's starting pitcher is officially listed as TBD. Kyle Gibson was pushed back to tomorrow. I expect right-hander Michael Pineda (4-3, 5.34 ERA) to be activated for his first start in almost two weeks. If someone else starts, you should still take the Twins' team-total 'over.'
Pineda presents a stylistic contrast to Boyd. Whereas Boyd is improving against opposite-handed batters by hiding his pitches with a lower vertical release point, Pineda is doing the exact opposite.
Unlike Boyd, Pineda loves to throw a change-up against opposite-handed batters. Righties, though, slug 1.000 against it. Moreover, Pineda's fastball and slider, like his change-up, exhibit arm-side movement, meaning that they move towards right-handed batters. They have an easier time hitting those pitches because they see them well and because those pitches lack the velocity of previous years. Righties slug over .500 against his fastball and slider.
Detroit matches up well against Pineda as a righty-heavy lineup. Righties bat .295 and slug .561 against Pineda. Because Pineda yields the platoon splits of a typical left-handed pitcher, it is relevant to note that the 'over' is 8-2-1 (80%) when Detroit faces a left-handed pitcher. The Tigers bat .26 and slug .36 higher against southpaws.
In 68 at-bats, active Tiger batters are hitting .309 and slugging .559 against Pineda. Watch especially for Miguel Cabrera, who is batting 6-for-16 (.375) with two doubles against him. JaCoby Jones has a 12-game hitting streak with four doubles and two homers during this span.
Minnesota (41-20) at Detroit (23-36)
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Half Over & Full-Game Over
Detroit's Matt Boyd (5-4, 3.01 ERA) may seem reliable given his low ERA. He has made his pitches more deceptive by drastically lowering his arm slot and adding more spin.
While these adjustments have allowed the southpaw to perform well against most teams, he still has a weakness against the stronger lineups against left-handed pitching. So far, he has faced three teams that rank top-10 in slugging against southpaws. He yielded a 5.40 ERA against Atlanta, which ranks sixth against lefties, a 5.68 ERA against Oakland, which ranks second in the category, and a 6.75 ERA against Houston, which ranks fourth in the category. Minnesota ranks third.
Right-handed batters are responsible for all eight homers and 10 of the 12 doubles that Boyd has allowed. The classic weapon against opposite-handed batters is the change-up. But Boyd barely feels comfortable throwing his.
Boyd throws his fastball with 50% frequency. It moves towards right-handed batters and he does a much worse job placing it inside against them than he does against left-handed batters. Instead, he leaves it more often in hittable parts of the plate. His fastballs land with 7.21% down the middle against righties compared to 4.92% against lefties. As a result, righties slug .402 against his fastball, lefties only .177.
The Twins are stacked with right-handed hitting, which has helped it score five runs or more in five of its last six games. Watch out for Jorge Polanco, who has a seven-game hitting streak, during which he has four multi-hit games, three doubles, and a homer. Marwin Gonzalez is 4-for-9 (.444) with two doubles and a triple against Boyd.
I also like the full-game 'over' because Detroit's bullpen is seventh-worst in terms of ERA and is filled with guys who have an ERA over 4.00.
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Minnesota's starting pitcher is officially listed as TBD. Kyle Gibson was pushed back to tomorrow. I expect right-hander Michael Pineda (4-3, 5.34 ERA) to be activated for his first start in almost two weeks. If someone else starts, you should still take the Twins' team-total 'over.'
Pineda presents a stylistic contrast to Boyd. Whereas Boyd is improving against opposite-handed batters by hiding his pitches with a lower vertical release point, Pineda is doing the exact opposite.
Unlike Boyd, Pineda loves to throw a change-up against opposite-handed batters. Righties, though, slug 1.000 against it. Moreover, Pineda's fastball and slider, like his change-up, exhibit arm-side movement, meaning that they move towards right-handed batters. They have an easier time hitting those pitches because they see them well and because those pitches lack the velocity of previous years. Righties slug over .500 against his fastball and slider.
Detroit matches up well against Pineda as a righty-heavy lineup. Righties bat .295 and slug .561 against Pineda. Because Pineda yields the platoon splits of a typical left-handed pitcher, it is relevant to note that the 'over' is 8-2-1 (80%) when Detroit faces a left-handed pitcher. The Tigers bat .26 and slug .36 higher against southpaws.
In 68 at-bats, active Tiger batters are hitting .309 and slugging .559 against Pineda. Watch especially for Miguel Cabrera, who is batting 6-for-16 (.375) with two doubles against him. JaCoby Jones has a 12-game hitting streak with four doubles and two homers during this span.
