Today's Plays Include a +264 Parlay
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Tuesday, March 29, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia
Motivated and Healthy
It might seem at first like a terrible idea to back Milwaukee after its most recent game, a 25-point blowout loss at the hands of the Ja Morant-less Grizzlies.
But a lot can change from one game to the other. This change is to be expected in Milwaukee's case under specific circumstances.
Specifically, when the Bucks suffer a blowout loss, they regularly respond strongly in the following game.
There are two things to note here: one, we should not consider this pattern to be coincidental because there is an obvious reason for it.
Motivation is a key angle in a long regular season which is really just a precursor to the playoffs where players begin playing with more intensity on a nightly basis.
A blowout loss is embarrassing to a team like Milwaukee that, especially after winning the NBA Championship, holds high expectations for itself.
The second thing to note is that there are exceptions to this pattern, but you have to look at the lineup in those exceptions.
Most recently, the Bucks suffered a second consecutive blowout loss when they lost to Portland on February 14. However, they did not have Giannis in that game.
For this game, Giannis is listed as 'probable.' Moreover, after missing his team's last game, Jrue Holiday is not listed on the injury report.
Finally, Khris Middleton is back playing after previously dealing with soreness in his wrist.
Not only is Milwaukee going to be motivated for this game, it is sufficiently healthy and has the firepower to provide a strong bounce-back response.
The Pattern
Here is the empirical data that suggests a strong Milwaukee bounce-back tonight.
Most recently, the Bucks lost by 19 at Minnesota and then beat Chicago by 26 the following game.
Previously in March, they lost by 13 at Golden State before winning by six at Utah.
Before that, they lost by 15 against Portland before beating Indiana by nine. January 28 and February 1 also witnessed dominating bounce-back wins after a loss, and the list continues.
The Bucks repeatedly earn clear victories after suffering double-digit losses in their previous game.
Jrue Holiday
Having Holiday back in the lineup is crucial given his offensive improvement this season.
He is averaging .9 more points and .6 more assists per game than he accrued last year.
Importantly, his stronger offensive numbers are largely a product of what he is currently accomplishing this month. In March, he's amassing 20.6 points and 7.3 assists per game.
Holiday is strong off the dribble where he can attack the basket, but he's also efficient at pulling-up. He's shooting with somewhat more efficiency, at just over a 43 percent clip, with his catch-and-shoot threes.
His abilities as a distributor pressure defenses to account for the threat he poses as a passer on top of the one he amplifies as a scorer.
With Holiday in the lineup, Milwaukee has a weapon whose dangerousness is maximized by his versatility.
Khris Middleton
Middleton also finds himself in a nice bounce-back spot after his last performance. He hasn't had two consecutive games in March where he converted less than 40 percent of his three-point attempts.
Also a productive passer, Middleton is best known for his efficiency from deep from where, in March, he is converting 47.8-percent of his attempts.
His efficiency from three forces the defense to pay attention to his presence behind the arc which means that space opens up inside for perennial MVP candidate Giannis who loves to attack the basket.
Drop Coverage
While Coach Budenholzer has in recent years increased his alteration of ball-screen coverage tactics, he is still best known for his employment of drop coverage where he positions bigs inside the paint nearer the basket.
This ball-screen coverage strategy renders the Buck defense vulnerable to pick-and-pop actions.
If its bigs are positioned near the basket, then they cannot adequately cover the perimeter.
But Philadelphia is not a team that is built to exploit Milwaukee's preferred ball-screen principles.
The 76ers overall do not attempt many threes -- they rank 28thin three-pointers attempted per game -- and their bigs are even less inclined to attempt them.
Home Struggles
Philadelphia is favored by NBA Oddsmakers because it is playing at home.
But the 76ers have been lackluster at home where they recently were blown out by Brooklyn and where most recently they have struggled to win consistently.
This lack of reliability at home makes the 76ers a good fade as the home favorite.
Total
In its past four games against Philadelphia, the Bucks have been scoring around 124 points per game.
Its firepower and offensive versatility thus repeatedly prove too much for the 76er defense.
Meanwhile, in order for the "over" to hit, Philadelphia doesn't need to do much at all in the scoring department.
If they hit their scoring average at home or overall, then the 76ers would help the game fly "over."
Best Bet: Bucks +1.5 at -110 & Over 228.5 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Tuesday, March 29, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia
Motivated and Healthy
It might seem at first like a terrible idea to back Milwaukee after its most recent game, a 25-point blowout loss at the hands of the Ja Morant-less Grizzlies.
But a lot can change from one game to the other. This change is to be expected in Milwaukee's case under specific circumstances.
Specifically, when the Bucks suffer a blowout loss, they regularly respond strongly in the following game.
There are two things to note here: one, we should not consider this pattern to be coincidental because there is an obvious reason for it.
Motivation is a key angle in a long regular season which is really just a precursor to the playoffs where players begin playing with more intensity on a nightly basis.
A blowout loss is embarrassing to a team like Milwaukee that, especially after winning the NBA Championship, holds high expectations for itself.
The second thing to note is that there are exceptions to this pattern, but you have to look at the lineup in those exceptions.
Most recently, the Bucks suffered a second consecutive blowout loss when they lost to Portland on February 14. However, they did not have Giannis in that game.
For this game, Giannis is listed as 'probable.' Moreover, after missing his team's last game, Jrue Holiday is not listed on the injury report.
Finally, Khris Middleton is back playing after previously dealing with soreness in his wrist.
Not only is Milwaukee going to be motivated for this game, it is sufficiently healthy and has the firepower to provide a strong bounce-back response.
The Pattern
Here is the empirical data that suggests a strong Milwaukee bounce-back tonight.
Most recently, the Bucks lost by 19 at Minnesota and then beat Chicago by 26 the following game.
Previously in March, they lost by 13 at Golden State before winning by six at Utah.
Before that, they lost by 15 against Portland before beating Indiana by nine. January 28 and February 1 also witnessed dominating bounce-back wins after a loss, and the list continues.
The Bucks repeatedly earn clear victories after suffering double-digit losses in their previous game.
Jrue Holiday
Having Holiday back in the lineup is crucial given his offensive improvement this season.
He is averaging .9 more points and .6 more assists per game than he accrued last year.
Importantly, his stronger offensive numbers are largely a product of what he is currently accomplishing this month. In March, he's amassing 20.6 points and 7.3 assists per game.
Holiday is strong off the dribble where he can attack the basket, but he's also efficient at pulling-up. He's shooting with somewhat more efficiency, at just over a 43 percent clip, with his catch-and-shoot threes.
His abilities as a distributor pressure defenses to account for the threat he poses as a passer on top of the one he amplifies as a scorer.
With Holiday in the lineup, Milwaukee has a weapon whose dangerousness is maximized by his versatility.
Khris Middleton
Middleton also finds himself in a nice bounce-back spot after his last performance. He hasn't had two consecutive games in March where he converted less than 40 percent of his three-point attempts.
Also a productive passer, Middleton is best known for his efficiency from deep from where, in March, he is converting 47.8-percent of his attempts.
His efficiency from three forces the defense to pay attention to his presence behind the arc which means that space opens up inside for perennial MVP candidate Giannis who loves to attack the basket.
Drop Coverage
While Coach Budenholzer has in recent years increased his alteration of ball-screen coverage tactics, he is still best known for his employment of drop coverage where he positions bigs inside the paint nearer the basket.
This ball-screen coverage strategy renders the Buck defense vulnerable to pick-and-pop actions.
If its bigs are positioned near the basket, then they cannot adequately cover the perimeter.
But Philadelphia is not a team that is built to exploit Milwaukee's preferred ball-screen principles.
The 76ers overall do not attempt many threes -- they rank 28thin three-pointers attempted per game -- and their bigs are even less inclined to attempt them.
Home Struggles
Philadelphia is favored by NBA Oddsmakers because it is playing at home.
But the 76ers have been lackluster at home where they recently were blown out by Brooklyn and where most recently they have struggled to win consistently.
This lack of reliability at home makes the 76ers a good fade as the home favorite.
Total
In its past four games against Philadelphia, the Bucks have been scoring around 124 points per game.
Its firepower and offensive versatility thus repeatedly prove too much for the 76er defense.
Meanwhile, in order for the "over" to hit, Philadelphia doesn't need to do much at all in the scoring department.
If they hit their scoring average at home or overall, then the 76ers would help the game fly "over."
Best Bet: Bucks +1.5 at -110 & Over 228.5 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
