Milwaukee @ San Diego 6/17

[Stew Baker]

In my view this game should be close to pick'em. Milwaukee has the better offense and better bullpen. Chacin, who's been on the DL since 5/31 with a strained lower back, will be activated for today's start. Having healed, he's been working on core fundamentals with pitching coach Craig Hook, who says Chacin's release now is much better than it had been earlier in the year. I think he'll look more like the Chacin of 2018, when he went 15-8 with a 3.5 ERA.

Lucchesi, who's a better day pitcher, has an overall home ERA of 3.11, but his home NIGHT ERA is a more pedestrian 3.78. Also, San Diego is probably beat up from the Colorado series. I think the value here is with Milwaukee +121.

 

[Brewers888]

Chris Hook the pitching coach has done a pretty terrible job so far so I wouldn't listen to anything he says. Brewers pitching staff has been far worse than last season with mostly the same guys and I attribute that fully to Derek Johnson leaving to become the pitching coach in Cincy and being replaced by Hook.

Cincy is top 5 in MLB in ERA and the Brewers were 18th last time I checked. Johnson is a genius and is working wonders with a mostly awful staff in Cincy like he did with the Brewers the last few years. Chacin is not a good pitcher and I wouldn't expect a good effort from him tonight.

If you can get Brewers +121 its not a bad bet. Also I believe Lucchesi is a lefty and the Brewers don't match up as well against lefties with all of their top hitters either hitting from the left side or Grandal being a switch hitter who is much weaker from the right side.

 

[Stew Baker]

Chris Hook the pitching coach has done a pretty terrible job so far so I wouldn't listen to anything he says. Brewers pitching staff has been far worse than last season with mostly the same guys and I attribute that fully to Derek Johnson leaving to become the pitching coach in Cincy and being replaced by Hook.

Cincy is top 5 in MLB in ERA and the Brewers were 18th last time I checked. Johnson is a genius and is working wonders with a mostly awful staff in Cincy like he did with the Brewers the last few years. Chacin is not a good pitcher and I wouldn't expect a good effort from him tonight.

If you can get Brewers +121 its not a bad bet. Also I believe Lucchesi is a lefty and the Brewers don't match up as well against lefties with all of their top hitters either hitting from the left side or Grandal being a switch hitter who is much weaker from the right side.

Great stuff. Brewers top hitters being lefties may not be quite the problem you make it out to be, as the team averages a decent 4.36 rpg on the road against left-handers (5.39 overall vs.L). Chacin's affinity for Petco, where he has an 11-4, 2.28 ERA career mark (pitched for SD in 2017) may also help here.

 

[Stew Baker]

I see there was a big move on Milwaukee in the interim. Line may come back some later in the day.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

I really don't like the "better" team or "better" line-up angle because it's about match-ups. Milly's OPS, though, is actually .19 higher against lefties than righties. But I trust Brewers on his team, maybe the lefties that the Brewers hit were very bad or had reverse splits? His reasoning is right of course (Moustakas, Shaw, Thames, Yelich are lefties).

Yes Chacin thrived as a Padre in San Diego. But now he faces a lineup there that is probably still familiar with him. Padre batters are hitting .288 against him--granted only 52 at-bats. He allowed four runs in 3.1 innings when he opened last season there..
Also: 4.23 career ERA off 6+ days' rest compared to 3.90 off 5 and 3.87 off 4

 

[Stew Baker]

I really don't like the "better" team or "better" line-up angle because it's about match-ups. Milly's OPS, though, is actually .19 higher against lefties than righties. But I trust Brewers on his team, maybe the lefties that the Brewers hit were very bad or had reverse splits? His reasoning is right of course (Moustakas, Shaw, Thames, Yelich are lefties).

Yes Chacin thrived as a Padre in San Diego. But now he faces a lineup there that is probably still familiar with him. Padre batters are hitting .288 against him--granted only 52 at-bats. He allowed four runs in 3.1 innings when he opened last season there..
Also: 4.23 career ERA off 6+ days' rest compared to 3.90 off 5 and 3.87 off 4

Milwaukee's 2018 OPS vs. L is .09 lower than vs. R, so its in the same basic range as 2019, discounting the idea that this year's numbers are "phony data". There is a substantial dropoff in Milwaukee's lefthanded hitters when facing lefties, so maybe the righthanded hitters are good "platoon type" hitters and really step it up against the lefties.

I do think we will see a bump in performance from Chacin with the better mechanics.

 

[tuck321]

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