Middle Tennessee St. vs. San Diego St. Hawai'i Bowl Top Picks: Scoring Will Be Rare in Close Contest
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 8 p.m. ET at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, Hawai'i
Best Bet: Under 49 at -110 with BetOnline
Middle Tennessee State's Offensive Style
Offensive coordinator Mitch Stewart is known for his air raid offense.
This type of offense is associated most clearly with passing.
Stewart wants to spread out the defense in order to create as much space as possible for his skill players to "raid," or attack.
Of course, this does not entail that the Blue Raiders will only pass.
When a defense is spread out, this can create a favorable opportunity for the running back.
Nevertheless, evidence for the fact that MTSU is a pass-first offense is the statistic that the Blue Raiders own the nation's 21st-highest pass-play percentage.
Given MTSU's offensive preference, its overall offensive success will hinge on the success of its pass attack.
Aztec Pass Defense
It follows that considering the quality of San Diego State's pass defense is a priority.
I like the Aztec defense for this game because its pass defense is excellent.
Nationally, the Aztec pass defense ranks 27th, as measured by opposing passing yards per game.
Toughest Competition Faced
Importantly, San Diego State is not untested. They faced some stiff competition at the quarterback position.
The most notable opponent was arguably Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener.
In terms of passer rating, he finished right around his season average thanks to a late comeback -- the Aztecs were up 28-10 but muffed a punt, failed to recover an onside kick, elected to play soft, prevent defense, and generally choked the game away.
The come-from-behind situation, given the awful way in which San Diego State tried to protect its lead, thus made Haener look a lot better at the end of the day.
But it speaks volumes of San Diego State's defense -- including it pass defense -- that it locked down the well-reputed Fresno State quarterback to the extent that the score grew to 28-10 in the Aztecs' favor.
When San Diego State lost while allowing higher point totals, it was generally the run defense that struggled -- see the Utah game, for example.
But MTSU, given its pass-first mindset and its anyhow statistically mediocre running back personnel, is not the team to punish the Aztecs by running the ball.
Chase Cunningham
Middle Tennessee State quarterback Chase Cunningham is nowhere near Haener's level.
Cunningham was an Honorable Mention in the Conference-USA.
While facing primarily lowly C-USA competition, his quarterback rating was 41 spots below Haener's.
Key Matchup
A key matchup will work in San Diego State's favor, further establishing that its pass defense will thrive in this game.
This matchup pits MTSU's top wide receiver against San Diego State's top cornerback.
The Blue Raiders rely extensively on Jaylin Lane, who has well over 300 more receiving yards than any of his teammates.
MTSU would benefit significantly from Lane having a soft matchup but he doesn't.
San Diego State's cornerback group is led by Dallas Branch.
Last year, Branch earned an excellent 77.9 coverage grade.
His accolades this year include receiving the Jim Thorpe Player of the Week honors.
More Coverage Help
The Aztecs don't need to rely too heavily on good cornerback play because their entire secondary.is well-rounded.
Safety Patrick McMorris is a two-time All-Mountain West first-teamer who reliably yields a low passer rating when targeted.
With this duo, the Aztecs are well-stocked in the secondary and are well-equipped to handle the Blue Raiders' top offensive weapons.
San Diego State's Offense
The Aztecs are built differently than MTSU.
They have faced uncertainty and tumult at the quarterback position.
Instead of passing, they like to run the ball.
Nationally, SDSU owns the 27th-highest run-play percentage.
MTSU's Run Defense
The Blue Raider run defense has thrived against competition from perceived stronger conferences.
In their win against Miami, for example, the Blue Raiders limited the Hurricanes to 60 rushing yards on 38 carries.
This game helps MTSU rank 28th nationally in run defense.
For MTSU, two defensive linemen received All-Conference honors as they help make the Blue Raider front seven a solid unit.
The Verdict
This will be a low-scoring game in which neither team pulls away.
One cannot rely on San Diego State's offense to score enough points to cover the spread.
For the above reasons, take the "under" and the Blue Raiders in expectation of a low-scoring, tight affair.
Best Bet: Blue Raiders +7 at -110 with BetOnline
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 8 p.m. ET at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, Hawai'i
Best Bet: Under 49 at -110 with BetOnline
Middle Tennessee State's Offensive Style
Offensive coordinator Mitch Stewart is known for his air raid offense.
This type of offense is associated most clearly with passing.
Stewart wants to spread out the defense in order to create as much space as possible for his skill players to "raid," or attack.
Of course, this does not entail that the Blue Raiders will only pass.
When a defense is spread out, this can create a favorable opportunity for the running back.
Nevertheless, evidence for the fact that MTSU is a pass-first offense is the statistic that the Blue Raiders own the nation's 21st-highest pass-play percentage.
Given MTSU's offensive preference, its overall offensive success will hinge on the success of its pass attack.
Aztec Pass Defense
It follows that considering the quality of San Diego State's pass defense is a priority.
I like the Aztec defense for this game because its pass defense is excellent.
Nationally, the Aztec pass defense ranks 27th, as measured by opposing passing yards per game.
Toughest Competition Faced
Importantly, San Diego State is not untested. They faced some stiff competition at the quarterback position.
The most notable opponent was arguably Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener.
In terms of passer rating, he finished right around his season average thanks to a late comeback -- the Aztecs were up 28-10 but muffed a punt, failed to recover an onside kick, elected to play soft, prevent defense, and generally choked the game away.
The come-from-behind situation, given the awful way in which San Diego State tried to protect its lead, thus made Haener look a lot better at the end of the day.
But it speaks volumes of San Diego State's defense -- including it pass defense -- that it locked down the well-reputed Fresno State quarterback to the extent that the score grew to 28-10 in the Aztecs' favor.
When San Diego State lost while allowing higher point totals, it was generally the run defense that struggled -- see the Utah game, for example.
But MTSU, given its pass-first mindset and its anyhow statistically mediocre running back personnel, is not the team to punish the Aztecs by running the ball.
Chase Cunningham
Middle Tennessee State quarterback Chase Cunningham is nowhere near Haener's level.
Cunningham was an Honorable Mention in the Conference-USA.
While facing primarily lowly C-USA competition, his quarterback rating was 41 spots below Haener's.
Key Matchup
A key matchup will work in San Diego State's favor, further establishing that its pass defense will thrive in this game.
This matchup pits MTSU's top wide receiver against San Diego State's top cornerback.
The Blue Raiders rely extensively on Jaylin Lane, who has well over 300 more receiving yards than any of his teammates.
MTSU would benefit significantly from Lane having a soft matchup but he doesn't.
San Diego State's cornerback group is led by Dallas Branch.
Last year, Branch earned an excellent 77.9 coverage grade.
His accolades this year include receiving the Jim Thorpe Player of the Week honors.
More Coverage Help
The Aztecs don't need to rely too heavily on good cornerback play because their entire secondary.is well-rounded.
Safety Patrick McMorris is a two-time All-Mountain West first-teamer who reliably yields a low passer rating when targeted.
With this duo, the Aztecs are well-stocked in the secondary and are well-equipped to handle the Blue Raiders' top offensive weapons.
San Diego State's Offense
The Aztecs are built differently than MTSU.
They have faced uncertainty and tumult at the quarterback position.
Instead of passing, they like to run the ball.
Nationally, SDSU owns the 27th-highest run-play percentage.
MTSU's Run Defense
The Blue Raider run defense has thrived against competition from perceived stronger conferences.
In their win against Miami, for example, the Blue Raiders limited the Hurricanes to 60 rushing yards on 38 carries.
This game helps MTSU rank 28th nationally in run defense.
For MTSU, two defensive linemen received All-Conference honors as they help make the Blue Raider front seven a solid unit.
The Verdict
This will be a low-scoring game in which neither team pulls away.
One cannot rely on San Diego State's offense to score enough points to cover the spread.
For the above reasons, take the "under" and the Blue Raiders in expectation of a low-scoring, tight affair.
Best Bet: Blue Raiders +7 at -110 with BetOnline
