Mid Tenn State vs. ODU Preview

[Dollaz]

Live on Fox Sports 1 Friday Night at 8 pm. Make sure you guys set your DVR.:cheers3:

Last year Mid Tenn State came in 85th in F/+ rankings, pretty much the best year they've ever had (or 2nd) under Stockstill. However, based on adjusted w/l record would be 4-9 vs. actual record of 8-5. This year, they had to replace QB, top 2 WR, and 4 OL. They are a team that puts a lot of pressure on the QB bc they typically run on run downs and pass on pass downs so don't really look to exploint passing yards in running situations. (even with an experienced QB last year)

Offense is led by dual threat Austin Grammer. (3 star soph) Grammer is a scrambler that hurts teams more with his legs than his feet and provides short passes. He does not exploit teams down the field. Running QBs is something ODU has historically been really weak at, but they have faced scrambling type QBs (Hampton, NC State, E. Michigan, Rice) in each of their games and have done much better containing the QB. Their strength is the bevy of backs and are successful at running the ball. This is obviously a concern as Rice ran the ball 50 odd times last week at roughly 5 yards a clip (mainly just wearing down ODUs defense in the 4th quarter) Rice has some big physical players, mainly on the OL. Mid Tenn comes in with guys all under 300 pounds. I don't expect them to be able to grind down the ODU defensive line quite as well as NC State and Rice were able to.

The defense has played well in spurts, but go shredded by West Ky, the offense that is probably the best comparable when evaluating MTSU's chances. Doughty went 43-66 593 yards, 4 td, 1 int (3 OT game). They were also able to run the ball 36 times for 125 yards. I expect ODU to be able to move the ball fairly well on them. The strength of the MTSU defense in their interior tackles, but it also a strength of ODU with very good play from the LG and C. (RG is out this game) They are extremely small outside of the DT spot with DE in the 230/240 range and LBs listed at 195, 224, 216. Corners are small, both starters coming in at 5-8. As we saw vs. Rice, ODU has been using some big physical WRs (Vaughn 6-2 230, Pascal 6-2 211, Washington 6-3 204, England 6-1 185) to go along with 2 short speedsters in Vaughan and Lowe.

They don't have the athletes to overpower the ODU WRs, which is the way to slow down the offense. The primary way to stop the ODU offense (as seen by Maryland and UNC) is having athletes in the secondary that can line up in man to man and putting 6-7 in the box. (ODU is very under rated at running the ball as NC State saw when trying to put everyone back in coverage) I don't see MTSU lining up those midgets on the outside and trying to man up.....it just wont happen.

What I think they will do is play it safe with coverage looks and hope to keep the WRs in front of them. The improved running game led by Gerard Johnson (59 carries 332 yards and Ray Lawry 20 carries,155 yards) will be key. Heinicke has been given the power to change plays at the LOS and we've seen it be very successful as he's not afraid to change a play to a run, even 3rd down situations. The offense is just gelling and a team cannot simply focus on stopping one aspect, they can beat you in many ways, speedsters, big physical WRs, running the ball, etc.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3d7emwH-as Last week, was among the best I've ever seen from Heinicke. Some of these passes are just perfect, no defending them.

I hope last weeks emotional win over the defending conference champs doesn't mean this is a letdown spot. Friday night lights, the guys should be up for. I predict 45-31 good guys. I have already played the -3. ( I said anything under 7 would be auto play)

Sorry to anyone that bet Rice, I did not foresee ODU winning straight up at Rice. We were fortunate in some ways, but also played really well until their running game wore us down. So far, I have been on the wrong side game wise vs. Hampton and Rice and have pegged the total right in every game. I would peg this total as another one in the 70s. Anything shy of 70 and I will play.

 

[RetroVK]

I watched the whole game with an over ticket last week. If Rice QB doesn't get hurt the cover is in question but Rice wins the game. And that is always going to be the concern with ODU in my mind .... The QB made perfect read, perfect throw over and over and over again in that game ( Impressive college player ) and they still needed a drive at the end to win the game when the opposing QB missed half the game and his backup was a big drop off. He is just going to have to have a big game every game for them to string wins. I will give the coach credit, in that I think he understands his football team and he stays aggressive with his play calling even when leading by a few scores because he knows his defense is awful. But if the qb ever has a bad day they are just gonna get destroyed. Very entertaining team to watch, I thought, btw.

Good luck Dollaz

 

[Dollaz]

I watched the whole game with an over ticket last week. If Rice QB doesn't get hurt the cover is in question but Rice wins the game. And that is always going to be the concern with ODU in my mind .... The QB made perfect read, perfect throw over and over and over again in that game ( Impressive college player ) and they still needed a drive at the end to win the game when the opposing QB missed half the game and his backup was a big drop off. He is just going to have to have a big game every game for them to string wins. I will give the coach credit, in that I think he understands his football team and he stays aggressive with his play calling even when leading by a few scores because he knows his defense is awful. But if the qb ever has a bad day they are just gonna get destroyed. Very entertaining team to watch, I thought, btw.

Good luck Dollaz

Yeah, I think you are probably right about Jackson. He missed a few drives in the first half and came back out in the 2H not wanting to get hit which mitigated his running threat. Rice was also out a few starters on defense. The ODU defense is always, always, always a concern when having an ODU ticket. The scary thing is the defense has actually improved this year from the past 2 years......But, it is still very young and there is some slight improvement upfront along the DL.

Heinicke continues to amaze me every game. I've seen every home game live of his except 1. He is simply a great QB that got completely overlooked by the big boys based on size (and playing in a run heavy offense junior year). You are right, he is on every read and makes every throw a QB can make. His accuracy is uncanny 69% career passer, 112 td to 27 int. Even some of his best performances were against teams that ODU was outmanned against (ECU, NC State, Pittsburgh, Rice-maybe) Its hard to expect him to play great every game, but he simply does. I've told people from his freshman year (25 td, 1 int) on that he could start for most of the big schools.

Wilder is probably the most aggressive coach in NCAA. He does on side kicks, goes for it on 4th down (see long td vs. Rice), etc. He does not hold back until the whistle blows. One game last year, he recognized the defense wasn't getting stops so they onside kicked 3 times in a row despite having the lead. I also think they called timeout and let Rice score with a min left knowing they would have a shot at winning the game the other way.

 

[RetroVK]

well that was a smart timeout because if they don't tie the game rice had used timeouts and he can take knees anyway.

 

[RetroVK]

I don't have a bad word to say about the QB ... especially at this level. He might need to throw with more zing to be successful at the next level, but for college he throws it plenty hard enough and makes it a catchable ball. What was funny is that I remember being impressed by him early ... then getting a little more impressed and then just shaking my head at his accuracy and decision making by the end.

 

[Dollaz]

You are right. His arm doesnt show up in deep passes where he can throw it 60 yards with zip but he occasionally float some balls on deep in/post routes.


Hard to tell at te next level. Height is an issue. Certainly has the smarts and accuracy tho. I thought beginning of the year someone may take a chance in 7th round. Wouldnt shock me if he moves up a bit.

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Excellent thread

 

[Dollaz]

Middle Tennessee Head Coach <dfn>Rick Stockstill</dfn>
Opening Statement:
We have a big game this week as we are taking on Old Dominion; they are coming off a big win over the conference champion last year in Rice. We had a good practice yesterday, we'll go again today. It's a short week so we have to cram an extra day in there. Really excited about this opportunity, Old Dominion is a good football team, they're sitting at 3-1 and they're tied with us in the eastern division at 1-0 in the conference. They've sold out their stadium on a consistent basis, the last two or three years every game has been sold out, it's the white out game for them, it's their first home conference game, it's a national television game so there will be a lot of excitement but we can't worry about that; we have to play our game. They have a really good quarterback that has seen a lot of snaps but they do a good job running the ball too. They are experienced on defense, especially on the back end. They've got three seniors and a junior in the secondary.

On the short week:
It does change a little bit, especially with coming back from Memphis so late. We watched film on the bus as coaches on Old Dominion to prepare for them. We went a little longer yesterday, Monday is normally a day off but we are practicing today but more of a Tuesday practice. Where you really lose some time is your meeting time. The players are doing a great job of taking care of their bodies, they are hydrating and getting in the cold tubs and doing the things that they have to do.

On Old Dominion's quick progression:
They've done a good job. For one they've got phenomenal facilities. If you look at their facilities you would have thought they've been around a lot longer. They're in a great recruiting area up in Virginia Beach so they are able to attract some really good players.

On bouncing back from Memphis loss:
Obviously you'd like to win it. The thing is it is always about us. We talk about that all the time. I'm going to give Memphis a ton of credit, they're a really good football team and they played UCLA close and they beat us. We had our chances, we didn't execute and we didn't play well enough to win the game but they had something to do with it. We had a setback but we aren't going to dwell, we are going to pick ourselves up and get ready for Old Dominion this week.

On stopping Old Dominion's quarterback:
I don't know that you do. Not a lot of people have had a lot of success stopping him not only this year but the past couple to three years. He's really talented, he's a good player, he's smart with the football, he's accurate with the football I think he's thrown one interception this year so he's done a good job protecting the ball. The thing we've got to do defensively is that we have to keep the ball in front of us. We can't give up the big play, the explosion plays that they are so capable of making.

On preparing the guys for the crowd:
You don't throw anything out, I always tell them what to expect. I told them yesterday they have a 22,000 seat stadium that's been sold out for three years. I tell them all of that just so they know. We just try to prepare them for everything.

On protecting the ball:
It's hard to control how many turnovers you get defensively but on offense you control that. We've had three very unfortunate ones but at the end of the day they are still turnovers. We've got to do a better job of protecting the ball.

On <dfn>T.T. Barber</dfn>:
I think T.T.'s played well. His worst game of the year was probably Minnesota. He didn't play up to his standards but still had a bunch of tackles. T.T. is a really good football player, he's very instinctive, he's smart, he's a good tackler, he's a physical tackler and he understands the game and plays hard.

On value of nationally televised game on Friday:
Those Thursday night games, those Friday night games, there's not a lot else going on so you're at home watching TV unless you are at high school game. Especially for a college player when you play on a Friday night you know that every other college football team in the country is turning on the TV and they are going to watch just because they want to see a football game.

On what he wants the MT brand to show on TV:
How hard we play. You want to win, that's important but to me it's just how hard we play. We play with a tremendous amount of passion, a tremendous amount of competitive spirit. Hopefully they can see a win. To me I take more pride when someone says "Coach, your team plays hard." Or "Your team never gives up."

On the white out:
I think it's cool for the players and the fans. It adds an extra bit of spice to the game. I think it all adds to the pageantry of college football. Once the game starts you don't see it , you aren't focused on that.

On getting the run game started again:
Give Memphis credit because they did a great job and they did a great job last year. We struggled against Memphis, especially the first two and a half to three quarters from a standpoint. They had us backed up the whole time. We've got to stay on blocks better. We've got to give our running back and our offensive line a chance to execute better from a coaching standpoint.

OT <dfn>Isaiah Anderson</dfn>
On having one less day to prepare:
I think you just have to be focused. You have that one less day and you have to be more mature as a team. Like coach said, you have to take care of your body, you have to get in the film room and you have to study more. So I think that's the biggest thing is we just have to be more mature players in situations like this.

On getting back on track this week:
I think you just need to lock in, like coach said on the little things. Memphis was a really good team and their defensive front will probably be as good a defense as we'll play all year long. But we just have to focus on the little things and I think we'll be fine.

On playing on national TV on a Friday night
It's fun. You know people watch you because you're the only game on. I think it's going to be a big time game. Old Dominion is a good program, we haven't been there and played so it's going to be fun traveling there so I'm just ready for it.

On facing Old Dominion's defensive front:
Plain and simple, from an offensive line point we have to block better, be more physical and stay on our blocks longer to give our backs seams and we have to protect a little better to give our receivers time to get open.

LB <dfn>Leighton Gasque</dfn>
On stopping the ODU high powered offense:
We just have to prepare and go along with our preparation that we do every single week and make sure that we're able to rush the passer and get in his face and play great coverage. Like coach Stock said, we have to keep the ball in front us the entire time and make sure we read our keys and play smart this week.

On preparing with one less day:
Like coach said, we had to make Sunday's practice about 20 minutes longer than what it usually is and today we'll be practicing on our usual day off but today's going to be like a normal Tuesday practice. So we're pretty much back on the same schedule it's just longer practices and we have to go up and meet with our coaches and find out what we need to learn that they can't tell us while we're actually at practice.

On getting back on track after a tough loss:
The goal to get back on track is always win, but we have to focus, prepare ourselves mentally and physically by staying healthy, hydrating, getting in cold tubs and make sure that we're watching film and getting as much time with our coaches that we possibly can.

On playing in front of a sellout crowd:
It's always exciting to be able to go into a new environment that you've never been to before because you get to go on the road and see things that you've never seen before out of a different crowd. The best thing is we're always excited to go play at somebody else's stadium and to show our own brand because you never know who's going to be watching. I'll have friends at different schools always call and say hey good luck the night before or I'll be watching and it's always a great time to be able to go on the road.

On getting pressure on the quarterback:
You always want to do better than you've done before and I mean I wouldn't say I'm disappointed because we're able to get our job done carrying out our assignments, but we're always looking for more pressure and to produce as much as we possibly can.

 

[Dollaz]

I think the key to the presser is the coach saying they have to keep ODU in front of them and not allow the explosive plays. They will play a bend, but don't break cover 2 or 3 and hope to get stops in the red zone. Teams play this type of defense all the time vs. us.

 

[He Hate Me]

The total is 67.

 

[inZane]

Thanks Dollaz, if you could do a thread on every game on the board as in-depth as this, sign me up. I'll pay whatever it takes...

:beer4:

 

[Dollaz]

Thanks guys, I wish I could. I'm just trying to help. Following ODU probably takes 15 hours a week!

 

[Dollaz]

The total is 67.

I will take over. That's auto play for me.

 

[ManchesterUk]

Great stuff $$$,GL

 

[Frank Costanza]

Thanks dollaz.

FWIW...good weather, should be a clean track tonight - mid 60s, no rain, light wind.

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck toinght

 

[Dollaz]

Im tailgating now. Weather is perfect. Fans are so hyped, should be loud.

I took ODU first half as we typically come ou strong (even bs P5 schools).

Added a unit on Mid Ten St over 32. I think both teams score here.

Good luck fellas. I will be drunk either way.

 

[Dollaz]

Actually key to game is we need to get ahead so Grammer isnt much of a threat with his legs, scariest part of their team. If they have to drop back every down, our pass rush should be able to get after him.

 

[mrob]

GL tonight

 

[Dollaz]

Fun game, we just got in too big of a hole early on 24-0 with turnovers a punt return TD. I've never seen a team start milking the clock........in the second quarter! Think the teams are evenly matched on most days but when they get a lead and can just run clock, then they are tough to come back on but we still had a shot with 3+ mins left.

I was impressed with their defensive line, they got the most pressure I've seen anyone get onus. The left side of their DL destroyed us. Problems with not being able to run the ball popped up again. Their secondary was not very good, if an offense can stop their pass rush, they can really exploit the passing game.

On offense, they are soooo conservative. I think they threw 3 balls past 5 yards in the air and literally 90% of passes were WR screens. Their QB didn't seem to bad, but they really handcuff him. We just couldn't slowdown the run on first down. Their special teams was a significant advantage for them and probably won them the game