Michigan vs. Michigan State College Football Week 9 Expert Picks
Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, October 30, 2021 at noon ET (FOX) at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan
The Importance of Kenneth Walker
Much of the impetus behind Michigan State's surprisingly successful season has come from Kenneth Walker who has amassed 997 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns on 6.6 YPC.
Characteristically, Walker is strong and tough to bring down. But he also enjoys sufficient burst to run away for a big play.
Michigan State does not possess a quarterback who can carry a team by himself. Therefore, the Spartans like to feed Walker as much as possible.
Walker has failed to reach five YPC in two contests: against Indiana and Nebraska he accrued 3.7 YPC and 3.2 YPC, respectively.
Unsurprisingly, the Indiana and Nebraska games were Michigan State's closest calls this season with the Spartans needing overtime to reach 23 points against Nebraska and managing 20 points against Indiana thanks to a pick-six.
To assess whether Michigan can limit the Spartan offense therefore requires asking whether the Wolverines can limit Walker.
How To Stop Walker
There is a ton of video footage available and I've been able to rewatch a lot of it.
What is commonplace in games where Walker struggles is that opposing defenders bottle him up in the backfield by plugging in gaps to force him to alter his direction. These defenders keep him going sideways instead of getting downhill where he can use his combo of forcefulness and speed.
At all events, defenders have to deter Walker from reaching the second level.
Now, Michigan owns a highly-ranked run defense. But the success or failure of the Wolverine run defense is not simply a product of its ranking relative to its opponent's.
Nebraska, for example, outproduced a higher-ranked Wisconsin ground game against Michigan by amassing 140 rushing yards on 4.4 YPC thanks to its ability to replicate Rutgers' second-half success against this Wolverine defense.
The key difference between the Cornhusker offense and Wisconsin's is the creativity in play-calling.
Wisconsin's idea of being deceptive is basically to hand the ball off and have the quarterback pretend like he still has the ball.
Nebraska does a lot more to fool opposing linebackers -- including Michigan's -- into occupying positions where they are unable to pursue the ball effectively.
My point in comparing Wisconsin and Nebraska is to use history to point to the importance of creativity against the Michigan defense and to suggest that we should expect a lot of creativity from the Spartan offense.
Even against Youngstown State, for example, the Spartans executed a jet sweep, a bootleg, and an RPO on consecutive plays on a scoring drive.
They will use the running threat posed by wide receivers -- like the speedy Jalen Nailor, who ran the ball twice in last year's win over Michigan -- and quarterback Payton Thorne in order to be deceptive.
The Spartan offense will run specific plays, running and passing, that force opposing defenders to respect Michigan State's multiple capabilities, to get Walker outside the tackles and in the second level where he is repeatedly dangerous.
It is true that Michigan State's offense in its last game against Indiana looked uninspiring.
But we've seen teams save up their offense for more meaningful opponents countless times like Oregon looking vanilla against Fresno State before putting up 35 in its win over Ohio State.
Michigan State has accumulated such a great ATS history against Michigan -- the Spartans enjoy 5-1 and 11-2 ATS runs against Michigan -- partly because they always give the Wolverines maximum effort and undivided attention.
Michigan Offense vs. Spartan Defense
Like Michigan State, Michigan does not have a quarterback who will carry its team.
As passing charts show, Cade McNamara can be quite efficient in short and intermediate passing, but he won't use the deep ball to take advantage of a relatively vulnerable Spartan secondary.
Instead, Michigan will rely on its "thunder and lightning" duo of running backs Tyrone Wheatley and Tim Biakabatuka...oops, I mean Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum.
The Spartans, though, own a strong run defense, probably weaker than the Badger run defense and stronger than the Rutgers run defense that limited Michigan's ground game to its least productive outputs.
Ranking top-20 in both opposing YPC and opposing rush yards per game, Michigan State has been carried by unexpected breakouts in the linebacker unit like Cal Haladay -- who accomplished the aforementioned pick-six vs. Indiana -- and by well-known veteran defensive linemen like decorated Jacub Panasiuk plus depth.
The Verdict
Michigan State has the creative and potent ground game to challenge a Wolverine defense that will also have to deal with a pass attack featuring Jayden Reed with his secure hands and Jalen Nailor with their 19+ yards per catch averages.
The Spartans also have the front seven to limit Michigan's running back tandem.
I think it's ridiculous that the Spartans are favored by a field goal or more at home.
I recommend betting early on Michigan State in expectation that the line will drop by game time, although later Michigan money should ensure that the line stays at around three.
Best Bet: Spartans +4 at -108 with Heritage
Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, October 30, 2021 at noon ET (FOX) at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan
The Importance of Kenneth Walker
Much of the impetus behind Michigan State's surprisingly successful season has come from Kenneth Walker who has amassed 997 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns on 6.6 YPC.
Characteristically, Walker is strong and tough to bring down. But he also enjoys sufficient burst to run away for a big play.
Michigan State does not possess a quarterback who can carry a team by himself. Therefore, the Spartans like to feed Walker as much as possible.
Walker has failed to reach five YPC in two contests: against Indiana and Nebraska he accrued 3.7 YPC and 3.2 YPC, respectively.
Unsurprisingly, the Indiana and Nebraska games were Michigan State's closest calls this season with the Spartans needing overtime to reach 23 points against Nebraska and managing 20 points against Indiana thanks to a pick-six.
To assess whether Michigan can limit the Spartan offense therefore requires asking whether the Wolverines can limit Walker.
How To Stop Walker
There is a ton of video footage available and I've been able to rewatch a lot of it.
What is commonplace in games where Walker struggles is that opposing defenders bottle him up in the backfield by plugging in gaps to force him to alter his direction. These defenders keep him going sideways instead of getting downhill where he can use his combo of forcefulness and speed.
At all events, defenders have to deter Walker from reaching the second level.
Now, Michigan owns a highly-ranked run defense. But the success or failure of the Wolverine run defense is not simply a product of its ranking relative to its opponent's.
Nebraska, for example, outproduced a higher-ranked Wisconsin ground game against Michigan by amassing 140 rushing yards on 4.4 YPC thanks to its ability to replicate Rutgers' second-half success against this Wolverine defense.
The key difference between the Cornhusker offense and Wisconsin's is the creativity in play-calling.
Wisconsin's idea of being deceptive is basically to hand the ball off and have the quarterback pretend like he still has the ball.
Nebraska does a lot more to fool opposing linebackers -- including Michigan's -- into occupying positions where they are unable to pursue the ball effectively.
My point in comparing Wisconsin and Nebraska is to use history to point to the importance of creativity against the Michigan defense and to suggest that we should expect a lot of creativity from the Spartan offense.
Even against Youngstown State, for example, the Spartans executed a jet sweep, a bootleg, and an RPO on consecutive plays on a scoring drive.
They will use the running threat posed by wide receivers -- like the speedy Jalen Nailor, who ran the ball twice in last year's win over Michigan -- and quarterback Payton Thorne in order to be deceptive.
The Spartan offense will run specific plays, running and passing, that force opposing defenders to respect Michigan State's multiple capabilities, to get Walker outside the tackles and in the second level where he is repeatedly dangerous.
It is true that Michigan State's offense in its last game against Indiana looked uninspiring.
But we've seen teams save up their offense for more meaningful opponents countless times like Oregon looking vanilla against Fresno State before putting up 35 in its win over Ohio State.
Michigan State has accumulated such a great ATS history against Michigan -- the Spartans enjoy 5-1 and 11-2 ATS runs against Michigan -- partly because they always give the Wolverines maximum effort and undivided attention.
Michigan Offense vs. Spartan Defense
Like Michigan State, Michigan does not have a quarterback who will carry its team.
As passing charts show, Cade McNamara can be quite efficient in short and intermediate passing, but he won't use the deep ball to take advantage of a relatively vulnerable Spartan secondary.
Instead, Michigan will rely on its "thunder and lightning" duo of running backs Tyrone Wheatley and Tim Biakabatuka...oops, I mean Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum.
The Spartans, though, own a strong run defense, probably weaker than the Badger run defense and stronger than the Rutgers run defense that limited Michigan's ground game to its least productive outputs.
Ranking top-20 in both opposing YPC and opposing rush yards per game, Michigan State has been carried by unexpected breakouts in the linebacker unit like Cal Haladay -- who accomplished the aforementioned pick-six vs. Indiana -- and by well-known veteran defensive linemen like decorated Jacub Panasiuk plus depth.
The Verdict
Michigan State has the creative and potent ground game to challenge a Wolverine defense that will also have to deal with a pass attack featuring Jayden Reed with his secure hands and Jalen Nailor with their 19+ yards per catch averages.
The Spartans also have the front seven to limit Michigan's running back tandem.
I think it's ridiculous that the Spartans are favored by a field goal or more at home.
I recommend betting early on Michigan State in expectation that the line will drop by game time, although later Michigan money should ensure that the line stays at around three.
Best Bet: Spartans +4 at -108 with Heritage
