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Expect Low-Scoring Slugfest Between Spartans and Wolverines
#7 Michigan (4-0) hosts rival Michigan State (3-1) this Saturday at 7:30 PM ET. The Wolverines opened as 13 point favorites. But, that number has dropped to 10. The total opened at 41.5 and has dropped to as low as 40.
Michigan has had difficulty establishing a rhythm and producing consistent drives. Against Florida, for instance, 303 of Michigan's 433 yards derived from 11 plays. Michigan's big plays have masked its offensive struggles even against understaffed teams like Florida or otherwise inferior competition.
Michigan cannot rely on backup quarterback John O'Korn to win for them, especially due to the absence of a go-to receiver, the reduced depth at wide receiver due to Tarik Black's injury, and the lack of experience and chemistry at the position.
Offensive line troubles cause Michigan to be 113th in sacks allowed per game. The protection is struggling with experience as they try to replace departures and make adjustments throughout the line.
The Wolverines like to grind out drives: they are top-25 in time of possession. They rely on a highly talented duo at running back, Chris Evans and Ty Isaac. Evans excels in open space due to his shifty running style, although he is also able to burst through a hole and lower his shoulder. Isaac is a powerful bruiser whose size and strength make him tough to bring down.
The Spartans will devote extra attention to Michigan's run game. Their interior defensive line is led by Raequan Williams and Mike Panasiuk, sophomores who started the last three games of last season and made an immediate, disruptive impact, playing a significant role in the Spartans' near-upset of Ohio State. Kenny Willekes has been a positive surprise at defensive end. The former walk-on is versatile and athletic. He brings explosion off the edge and excels at containing the screen and swing game.
Michigan State's high-ranked rush defense is supported by a stacked linebacking corps. Joe Bachie is a rising star. "Psycho" Chris Frey led the Spartans with 96 tackles last season. Though lacking the size of Bachie and Frey, Andrew Dowell stands out with his speed and athleticism.
The Spartans' improvement in applying pressure also takes pressure off of their blossoming secondary, which is led by two experienced safeties.
Michigan's defense is proving itself, ranking first in both rushing yards allowed and passing yards allowed. But Michigan State's offense has produced nothing against a team outside the MAC. A lot of their yards against Notre Dame came after the Irish had already essentially won.
Quarterback Brian Lewerke is the Spartans' leading rusher. LJ Scott is averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per carry.
Michigan State's offensive line is failing to offer adequate run protection. The protection is inexperienced and unproven outside of center Brian Allen.
Pass blocking is easier for Lewerke, whose mobility allows him to elude pressure. He has a go-to wide receiver in Felton Davis, whose size also makes him a viable red zone threat. He leads the team with 4 receiving touchdowns. Overall, however, the Spartans possess one of the worst red zone offenses, largely due to an anemic rush attack.
The developing chemistry between Lewerke, who favors the shorter passing game, and his young and talented wide receivers, helps the Spartans control time of possession. The Spartans, due to their lack of big-play ability, but their conservative quality in Lewerke, are 9th in time of possession. Like the Wolverines, they excel at grinding out drives.
Michigan State will face its biggest challenge in producing any kind of forward rhythm against a vicious Michigan defense that ranks highest at getting to the quarterback and into the backfield.
Michigan's defensive line is led by top recruit Rashan Geary. Geary boasts an insane burst that opposing offensive linemen--surely including those of Michigan State--cannot contain. His elite pass-rushing skills are complemented by those of explosive defensive tackle Maurice Hurst.
Michigan's linebackers are led by Mike McCray, who is versatile in his ability to wreak havoc in the backfield but also assist in pass coverage. McCray is a senior leader who makes the younger talent around him blossom.
Michigan's talent at linebacker and defensive line helps a young secondary led by Lavert Hill, who makes up for his size with the agility to change direction and the ability to make a break on routes. David Long has the vertical ability and ball skills to help contain the Spartans' size at receiver.
The Verdict
Two largely unproven offenses, who love to grind out possession, create a recipe for few points. Both defenses are much more self-confident and match-up well in order to limit the opposing offense. Because both teams will start with their most intense physicality, will need time to feel out the opposing defense and because Michigan State could find itself down double digits in the 4th quarter and loves to score garbage points, I am sticking with a first half play.
NCAAF Pick: First Half 'Under'
Expect Low-Scoring Slugfest Between Spartans and Wolverines
#7 Michigan (4-0) hosts rival Michigan State (3-1) this Saturday at 7:30 PM ET. The Wolverines opened as 13 point favorites. But, that number has dropped to 10. The total opened at 41.5 and has dropped to as low as 40.
Michigan has had difficulty establishing a rhythm and producing consistent drives. Against Florida, for instance, 303 of Michigan's 433 yards derived from 11 plays. Michigan's big plays have masked its offensive struggles even against understaffed teams like Florida or otherwise inferior competition.
Michigan cannot rely on backup quarterback John O'Korn to win for them, especially due to the absence of a go-to receiver, the reduced depth at wide receiver due to Tarik Black's injury, and the lack of experience and chemistry at the position.
Offensive line troubles cause Michigan to be 113th in sacks allowed per game. The protection is struggling with experience as they try to replace departures and make adjustments throughout the line.
The Wolverines like to grind out drives: they are top-25 in time of possession. They rely on a highly talented duo at running back, Chris Evans and Ty Isaac. Evans excels in open space due to his shifty running style, although he is also able to burst through a hole and lower his shoulder. Isaac is a powerful bruiser whose size and strength make him tough to bring down.
The Spartans will devote extra attention to Michigan's run game. Their interior defensive line is led by Raequan Williams and Mike Panasiuk, sophomores who started the last three games of last season and made an immediate, disruptive impact, playing a significant role in the Spartans' near-upset of Ohio State. Kenny Willekes has been a positive surprise at defensive end. The former walk-on is versatile and athletic. He brings explosion off the edge and excels at containing the screen and swing game.
Michigan State's high-ranked rush defense is supported by a stacked linebacking corps. Joe Bachie is a rising star. "Psycho" Chris Frey led the Spartans with 96 tackles last season. Though lacking the size of Bachie and Frey, Andrew Dowell stands out with his speed and athleticism.
The Spartans' improvement in applying pressure also takes pressure off of their blossoming secondary, which is led by two experienced safeties.
Michigan's defense is proving itself, ranking first in both rushing yards allowed and passing yards allowed. But Michigan State's offense has produced nothing against a team outside the MAC. A lot of their yards against Notre Dame came after the Irish had already essentially won.
Quarterback Brian Lewerke is the Spartans' leading rusher. LJ Scott is averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per carry.
Michigan State's offensive line is failing to offer adequate run protection. The protection is inexperienced and unproven outside of center Brian Allen.
Pass blocking is easier for Lewerke, whose mobility allows him to elude pressure. He has a go-to wide receiver in Felton Davis, whose size also makes him a viable red zone threat. He leads the team with 4 receiving touchdowns. Overall, however, the Spartans possess one of the worst red zone offenses, largely due to an anemic rush attack.
The developing chemistry between Lewerke, who favors the shorter passing game, and his young and talented wide receivers, helps the Spartans control time of possession. The Spartans, due to their lack of big-play ability, but their conservative quality in Lewerke, are 9th in time of possession. Like the Wolverines, they excel at grinding out drives.
Michigan State will face its biggest challenge in producing any kind of forward rhythm against a vicious Michigan defense that ranks highest at getting to the quarterback and into the backfield.
Michigan's defensive line is led by top recruit Rashan Geary. Geary boasts an insane burst that opposing offensive linemen--surely including those of Michigan State--cannot contain. His elite pass-rushing skills are complemented by those of explosive defensive tackle Maurice Hurst.
Michigan's linebackers are led by Mike McCray, who is versatile in his ability to wreak havoc in the backfield but also assist in pass coverage. McCray is a senior leader who makes the younger talent around him blossom.
Michigan's talent at linebacker and defensive line helps a young secondary led by Lavert Hill, who makes up for his size with the agility to change direction and the ability to make a break on routes. David Long has the vertical ability and ball skills to help contain the Spartans' size at receiver.
The Verdict
Two largely unproven offenses, who love to grind out possession, create a recipe for few points. Both defenses are much more self-confident and match-up well in order to limit the opposing offense. Because both teams will start with their most intense physicality, will need time to feel out the opposing defense and because Michigan State could find itself down double digits in the 4th quarter and loves to score garbage points, I am sticking with a first half play.
NCAAF Pick: First Half 'Under'
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