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Indiana A Live Dog vs Powerhouse Michigan

Indiana (3-2) hosts #17 Michigan (4-1) this Saturday at 12:00 PM ET. MIchigan opened as 6 point favorites, but strong public action has bet that number up to 7.

The key question that confronts Indiana is their decision to start freshman Peyton Ramsey at quarterback.

Ramsey deserves the starting position because of the spark that he has provided in coming off the bench. He led Indiana in their 34-17 victory over Virginia. He led Indiana to a couple scoring drives against Penn State, after the Hoosiers had fallen behind 28-0. Now, he threw 41 passes in his first start last week against Charleston Southern.

Indiana's Offensive Coordinator Mike DeBord will work better with Ramsey, who is reminiscent of the dual-threat quarterback that DeBord worked with at Tennessee. Ramsey is a dual-threat with capable accuracy and mobility. Ramsey's rushing skills will also improve an otherwise insufficient rushing attack.

When the opposing defense has to accord greater respect to Indiana's rush attack, the wide receivers can become more dangerous. Simmie Cobbs Jr, Ramsey's number 1 target, produced over 1,000 yards in his last healthy season (2015). He caught 11 passes for 149 yards this season against top-ranked Ohio State. He uses his size and arm length to catch balls within an extensive range. He uses his body well in order to be physical, but also boasts impressive speed.

Michigan has an elite passing and rushing defense. However, Indiana's passing attack will be adequate because their young offensive line has matured, improving from giving up 9 sacks in the first 2 games to averaging 1.7 sacks allowed in the last 3. A significant reason for this improvement is playing the elusive Ramsey at quarterback. Last week, against Michigan State's dual-threat quarterback, Michigan achieved zero sacks. Also, Michigan is not so elite at forcing interceptions. Ramsey is a smart decision-maker. His offensive efficiency will keep Indiana competitive

The key question facing Michigan is: will quarterback John O'Korn, in his second start this season, be able to spark Michigan's offense?

O'Korn lacks a proven record. He was abysmal against the Spartans' talented but youthful secondary. His previous start before that was actually against Indiana last season: he went 7 of 16 for 59 yards.

Despite the injury of Tarik Black, the Wolverines still possess talent and depth at wide receiver. However, this talent is raw. The dropped passes and lack of chemistry with the incapable O'Korn are worrisome.

Indiana will presumably pursue the same strategy that they did against Penn State: stack the box. Michigan's talent on offense lies with running backs Chris Evans, Ty Isaac and Karon Higdon. Evans is versatile with his combination of elusiveness in open space and ability to truck defenders. Isaac is a larger and stronger back who just bruises opponents. Despite his lack of size, Karon Higdon is a tough, physical back, who is adept at hitting holes with power and momentum.

Even before quarterback Wilton Speight got injured, Michigan had struggled to produce consistent drives. Indiana already boasts success in limiting offenses with a dominant rushing attack. Against Penn State, they held Saquon Barkley to 56 yards on 20 carries. Their performance against Penn State's offense is masked by offensive turnovers and poor special teams play.

Indiana has a very respectable run defense, ranked 38th in average yards per carry. Their ranking of 57th in sack percentage shows that they can create havoc on passing downs as well. Their defense is led in tackles, tackles for loss and sacks by Tegray Scales.

Scales is a versatile athlete who is helpful in pass coverage but also excels at blitzing and stuffing the run. He possesses superior physical tools in that with a quick burst he takes the right angle to the ball carrier. He is also intelligent in his ability to read opposing pass and run plays. Chris Covington, who is second in tackles and tackles for loss, is stepping up as Indiana's second best linebacker and has constructed a solid history against elite opponents.

Michigan's offensive line is ranked towards rock-bottom in sacks allowed and is struggling to offer adequate run protection. They lack the tools to contain an Indiana defensive line whose depth is underestimated and is aided by a solid linebacking corps.

The Verdict

Michigan's anemic offense cannot justify a cover, especially because of Indiana's proven ability to contain a high-quality rush attack. Michigan is regressing to its usual struggle in takeaways and is averaging less than 1 takeaway in their past 3 games. A smart and mobile Peyton Ramsey with skilled and well-sized receivers can keep the game competitive.

Michigan also tends to come out flat. Offensively, they are ranked 104th in first half scoring, compared to 30th in second half scoring. Defensively, they are 34th in points allowed in the first half, compared to first in points allowed in the second.

NCAAF Pick: Indiana 1H
 
Good read.

The time to get the Michigan defense is the 1st half. As brilliant as Don Brown is sometimes it takes him a bit to find the A+ formula. Last week, coming out in the 3-3-5 was a mistake. Once they adjusted, they were back to being damn good. I mean, they were good most of game but that still led to a few mistakes.

This is an early start and a hangover game for Michigan

IU always plays UM tough.

I can see a real ugly first half, something like 10-9 either way or maybe 13-10 etc.

Number shopping here will be key methinks.
 
Yes the lack of IU run O has really hurt them. Other than the rise of their D the running game was the difference maker for them. Now that it is gone the O is just not very threatening vs quality competition over the course of an entire game. Two years ago they ran for 307 on Michigan and IU nearly won.

I'm not sure yet that Ramsey is what IU needs. Honestly I think we might just be seeing IU fade back to their normal bottom feeding position, not necessarily this year, but once the leaders on D are gone, I think IU is done flirting with upsets.

Ramsey did play well at Virginia, but also completed just 37 and 47% vs PSU and GaSouthern. So I don't know if he has what it takes. On his best day, Lagow had what it takes, but his best days were too few and kinda far between.

Think IU leading or keeping it close at HT is possible, but a little too risky for me. I just respect the Michigan D too much and don;t think IU can or will do much against them. I would need more than a FG for me to put money on that. I want to bet IU +7 for the game, but am just not sure I like them enough.
 
IU guy here seconding s--k sentiment. The offense is actually pretty poor. Outside of a great 1H vs osu to start year they are underwhelming.

UM offense is not high powered but personally i think they shouldnt have much an issue getting points due to tbeir D setting them up.

Im considering a teaser with UM as safest play.
 
I'm not trying to say that IU's offense is like Oklahoma's.

But I do feel like the switch at QB to Ramsey gives IU an extra element that wasn't there, that Ramsey is a capable dual-threat who passes better to OC DeBord and I think he provides a spark to the offense.

Michigan's offense is anemic especially behind O'Korn and I think Indiana's D will play their hardest and can hold them. Combined with the hangover effect that we should get in this post Michigan-State loss early game. I feel like IU can take a 10-9 lead into halftime.
 
This may be the best defense Harbaugh has ever had at Michigan. The amount of speed and depth they have at all three levels is quite stark compared to say last year where he may have had a far better player (Peppers) but they didn't have a ton of speed.

The fear I'd have in taking Indiana is with a freshman QB do they have enough depth and diversity of their offense to keep the Michigan defense off balance for 30, let alone 60 minutes.

While there is a fear of O'Korn and the game he just played against MSU, I think he'll be far closer to what he did against Purdue because the Indiana defense likely won't put the Michigan offense so far behind the chains. I assume the offense is far better in better conditions.

The other thing that worries me in getting no more than 4 for a half is special teams. I think Michigan is a fantastic special teams' group and they're always a threat to gain an advantage that way.
 
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