Michigan State vs. Penn State: NCAAF Week 15 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Michigan State Spartans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania
Trend
A cursory look over Michigan State’s results this season may generate puzzlement.
Results seem to be all over the place: massive upsets against then-heavily favored Michigan and Northwestern, respectively, a loss to lowly Rutger, and blowout losses to Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State.
But there is a firm pattern in place that makes this game predictable.
Michigan State is 0-4 ATS when it runs for fewer than 100 yards as a team. Conversely, the Spartans are 2-0 ATS when they run for over 100 yards.
So in order to decide who will cover the spread, we need to consider how the Spartans will succeed or not succeed when running against the Penn State defense.
Michigan State Rush Offense
The Spartans are as unsuccessful as they have been because they generally struggle to run the ball. Currently, they rank 120th nationally in averaging 95.2 rushing yards per game.
Elijah Collins was the recipient of significant hype entering the season. But with his 2.3 YPC average, he is not delivering.
Leading ball-carrier Connor Heyward is not performing much better. His rush attempts are characterized by excessive east-west movement. He is slow and he doesn’t drive the ball forward much.
Jordon Simmons, who is listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s contest, is performing only slightly better. His 3.5 YPC average is also terrible.
Penn State Front Seven
The Nittany Lion front seven contributed to the team’s initial demise.
Micah Parsons’ absence proved more meaningful than one could have expected because it became clear that he masked a lot of the deficiencies in his fellow linebackers.
But missed tackles have waned in frequency. Linebackers Jesse Luketa, Ellis Brooks, and Brandon Smith are playing stouter. They are gelling as a unit after they hadn’t played together much.
Against an improved Rutgers ground game that ranks higher than Michigan State’s, the Nittany Lions conceded only 83 rush yards on 32 carries.
Michigan State’s Question Mark At Quarterback
Starting Spartan quarterback Rocky Lombardi is officially listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s game after suffering a head injury.
After another poor outing, Lombardi may not deserve his starting job anymore. So far this season, he’s completed 53 percent of his passes while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns.
Lombardi was productive against a porous Michigan secondary that simply allowed him to hit fly route after fly route. But overall he’s been inefficient, inaccurate, and unintelligent otherwise.
Payton Thorne should start for the Spartans. He’s more exciting because he provides more of a dual threat. But his completion percentage is only barely better than Lombardi’s while he’s averaging fewer YPA and has zero touchdowns to two interceptions.
Penn State Pass Defense
No matter who starts at quarterback for Sparty, he will have to contend with a Penn State pass defense that ranks 23rd nationally in terms of opposing YPA.
Penn State’s outside corners are very strong and deep with maturing quality. Joey Porter, for example, is constantly improving. Last week, he was the Big Ten’s Freshman of the Week.
Tariq Castro-Fields is actually the team’s top cornerback. He hasn’t even been playing, but may rejoin the unit on Saturday.
Penn State Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Whereas Michigan State is struggling at the quarterback position, Penn State is growing.
First of all, the first-half play-calling has been more effective from the Nittany Lion offense.
Against both of their last opponents, the Nittany Lions competed from the start and raced out to early leads.
Video footage shows the positive response that quarterback Sean Clifford has shown since he was benched.
Clifford is a threat as a runner — he ran for 73 yards against Michigan, for example — and as a passer.
Video footage shows his improved anticipation and his proclivity to go through his progressions.
He’ll be supported by leading wide receiver Jahan Dotson and by a running game that is strongly improving its YPC average on a week-to-week basis.
The key change has been to install new pieces at the right guard and right tackle positions.
When the run-blocking is solid, Spartan linebackers will look to provide more help at the line of scrimmage. Then it becomes easier to throw over their heads.
Michigan State’s secondary, too, is repeatedly vulnerable against teams with any quality at the wide receiver position. So Dotson is important.
The Verdict
Michigan State will really struggle to score behind its inept quarterbacking and unproductive run game.
Penn State won’t need too much offense to cover the spread posted by top sportsbooks.
Expect the Nittany Lions to utilize their improved offensive line and the dual threat posed by Clifford in order to score more than enough points.
Best Bet: Nittany Lions -14.5 at -108 with Heritage
Michigan State Spartans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania
Trend
A cursory look over Michigan State’s results this season may generate puzzlement.
Results seem to be all over the place: massive upsets against then-heavily favored Michigan and Northwestern, respectively, a loss to lowly Rutger, and blowout losses to Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State.
But there is a firm pattern in place that makes this game predictable.
Michigan State is 0-4 ATS when it runs for fewer than 100 yards as a team. Conversely, the Spartans are 2-0 ATS when they run for over 100 yards.
So in order to decide who will cover the spread, we need to consider how the Spartans will succeed or not succeed when running against the Penn State defense.
Michigan State Rush Offense
The Spartans are as unsuccessful as they have been because they generally struggle to run the ball. Currently, they rank 120th nationally in averaging 95.2 rushing yards per game.
Elijah Collins was the recipient of significant hype entering the season. But with his 2.3 YPC average, he is not delivering.
Leading ball-carrier Connor Heyward is not performing much better. His rush attempts are characterized by excessive east-west movement. He is slow and he doesn’t drive the ball forward much.
Jordon Simmons, who is listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s contest, is performing only slightly better. His 3.5 YPC average is also terrible.
Penn State Front Seven
The Nittany Lion front seven contributed to the team’s initial demise.
Micah Parsons’ absence proved more meaningful than one could have expected because it became clear that he masked a lot of the deficiencies in his fellow linebackers.
But missed tackles have waned in frequency. Linebackers Jesse Luketa, Ellis Brooks, and Brandon Smith are playing stouter. They are gelling as a unit after they hadn’t played together much.
Against an improved Rutgers ground game that ranks higher than Michigan State’s, the Nittany Lions conceded only 83 rush yards on 32 carries.
Michigan State’s Question Mark At Quarterback
Starting Spartan quarterback Rocky Lombardi is officially listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s game after suffering a head injury.
After another poor outing, Lombardi may not deserve his starting job anymore. So far this season, he’s completed 53 percent of his passes while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns.
Lombardi was productive against a porous Michigan secondary that simply allowed him to hit fly route after fly route. But overall he’s been inefficient, inaccurate, and unintelligent otherwise.
Payton Thorne should start for the Spartans. He’s more exciting because he provides more of a dual threat. But his completion percentage is only barely better than Lombardi’s while he’s averaging fewer YPA and has zero touchdowns to two interceptions.
Penn State Pass Defense
No matter who starts at quarterback for Sparty, he will have to contend with a Penn State pass defense that ranks 23rd nationally in terms of opposing YPA.
Penn State’s outside corners are very strong and deep with maturing quality. Joey Porter, for example, is constantly improving. Last week, he was the Big Ten’s Freshman of the Week.
Tariq Castro-Fields is actually the team’s top cornerback. He hasn’t even been playing, but may rejoin the unit on Saturday.
Penn State Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Whereas Michigan State is struggling at the quarterback position, Penn State is growing.
First of all, the first-half play-calling has been more effective from the Nittany Lion offense.
Against both of their last opponents, the Nittany Lions competed from the start and raced out to early leads.
Video footage shows the positive response that quarterback Sean Clifford has shown since he was benched.
Clifford is a threat as a runner — he ran for 73 yards against Michigan, for example — and as a passer.
Video footage shows his improved anticipation and his proclivity to go through his progressions.
He’ll be supported by leading wide receiver Jahan Dotson and by a running game that is strongly improving its YPC average on a week-to-week basis.
The key change has been to install new pieces at the right guard and right tackle positions.
When the run-blocking is solid, Spartan linebackers will look to provide more help at the line of scrimmage. Then it becomes easier to throw over their heads.
Michigan State’s secondary, too, is repeatedly vulnerable against teams with any quality at the wide receiver position. So Dotson is important.
The Verdict
Michigan State will really struggle to score behind its inept quarterbacking and unproductive run game.
Penn State won’t need too much offense to cover the spread posted by top sportsbooks.
Expect the Nittany Lions to utilize their improved offensive line and the dual threat posed by Clifford in order to score more than enough points.
Best Bet: Nittany Lions -14.5 at -108 with Heritage
