Michigan State vs. Northwestern College Football Week 1 Picks and Odds Breakdown
Michigan State Spartans vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Friday, September 3, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois
Northwestern's Issue At Quarterback
If I am deciding whether to bet on a favored team to cover the spread, the first question I will ask myself is if it possesses a sufficient advantage on offense to merit belief in its ability to score however many more points the spread requires it to score than the opponent.
The main reason why I dislike Northwestern is my disbelief in its offense, whose scoring potential will be curtailed by several significant losses.
For starters, quarterback Peyton Ramsey is gone. The former Hoosier transfer played a seminal role in Northwestern's Big Ten West title last year.
His replacement was always going to be Ryan Hilinski or Hunter Johnson.
Despite his innumerable weaknesses and problems while tenuously established at South Carolina, Hilinski was widely favored to win the job.
However, he suffered a significant injury that held him back and gave the advantage to fellow quarterback Hunter Johnson.
Many Northwestern insiders expressed surprise that Johnson was named the starter. One reason for this surprise is his abysmal performance in the 2019 season, which was the last season that he competed in.
In 2019, Johnson threw one touchdown and four interceptions while failing to complete half of his 432 attempted passes.
Northwestern's Other Offensive Losses
Johnson will lack meaningful help.
The 2020 receiving leader, Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, has departed, as has the 2019 receiving leader, Riley Lees.
Based on returning players, a continual weakness in the interior offensive line can't help any element of the offensive impetus.
Running the ball was tremendously difficult for Northwestern.
Hope was placed in Cam Porter, who impressed during the offseason. However, he suffered a season-ending injury.
A lack of playmakers will monotonize Northwestern's offensive attack. A lack of experience will further hinder the Wildcats especially in the season opener, which, as a trend that I will discuss later will show, is commonly a difficult time for recent Northwestern squads.
Michigan State's Defensive Match-Up
Match-ups are important to consider because they can create a kind of advantageous quality that isn't reflected in the current odds.
Northwestern's interior of its offensive line is decisive for its offensive chances because it is a weak spot, a vulnerability, that can really hold the entire Wildcat offense back.
Last year, the Spartans almost finished top-40 nationally in limiting opposing rush yards per attempt.
They finished this strongly in this category despite having to deal with a bevy of novel cogs in their machine: there were new starters and new coaches, all of whom were trying to familiarize themselves with each other in the context of COVID.
Experienced (Junior or higher) returning starters include Jacub Panasiuk and Drew Beesley at the defensive end positions plus Jacob Slade at defensive tackle.
Slade returns after playing in every game in 2019 and starting every one in 2020. Fellow defensive tackle Dashaun Mallory returns after almost being a team leader in sacks last year, although 320-pound monster Jalen Hunt is ahead of him on the depth chart. The former Iowa commit (Hunt) gained some experience last year, wreaking havoc against teams like Michigan.
Beesley looks to build off a successful 2020 season in which he achieved career highs in tackles and sacks. He was a PFF All-Big Ten third-teamer.
Panasiuk has amassed significant career-long numbers, which have motivated different authorities this year to name him to preseason All-Big Ten teams.
Valuable transfers from Big Ten schools who were highly-ranked recruits will support the linebacking corps.
Several experienced starters and contributors will grace Michigan State's 2-4-5 scheme. This starting experience gives the Spartan secondary an edge against a Wildcat receiving crew that misses three of its top four yardage leaders from last season.
Slow Start Trend
In addition to my lack of faith in favored Northwestern's offense, a key trend explains why you should bet the underdog in this game.
In 2019, 2018, and 2017 -- the last three normal seasons -- the Wildcats went 0-3 ATS or 1-2 ATS to start the season.
This squad is known for starting slowly. A slow start will be triggered this year at least by a bevy of new faces, including an inexperienced and shaky quarterback who will be throwing to a lackluster receiving crew, unsupported by the injured Cam Porter, and frustrated by the interior offensive line.
On defense, a lot of key players have departed, including top playmaker and tackling machine, linebacker Paddy Fisher. Fellow multi-year starter at linebacker, Blake Gallagher, formed a solid duo with Fisher. But he, too, is gone.
In the secondary, Northwestern lost a cornerback in Greg Newsome II who was drafted in the first round of the most recent NFL Draft.
Michigan State Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
While the Spartans rushed surprisingly well in their upset win over Northwestern, their rushing numbers were paltry overall as they failed to exceed 100 yards in almost every game.
A bottom-ranked rushing offense that desperately needs continuity in its protection unit will help keep the game from becoming too high-scoring.
Payton Thorne, who did nothing last year except against an anomalously awful Penn State defense, is competing with the grad transfer Anthony Russo from Temple, who needs to build chemistry with his wide receivers, for the starting job.
In addition to subpar producers, the Spartan offense will be held back by its usual discontinuity and general disadvantage in its protection unit.
Meanwhile, the defensive line forms the strength of Northwestern's defense with key returners at every position.
So, in addition to betting on Michigan State because its defense and a key trend make it a live dog, also take the "under."
Best Bet: Spartans +3 at -108 with BetOnline & Under 45 at -108 with Heritage
Michigan State Spartans vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Friday, September 3, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois
Northwestern's Issue At Quarterback
If I am deciding whether to bet on a favored team to cover the spread, the first question I will ask myself is if it possesses a sufficient advantage on offense to merit belief in its ability to score however many more points the spread requires it to score than the opponent.
The main reason why I dislike Northwestern is my disbelief in its offense, whose scoring potential will be curtailed by several significant losses.
For starters, quarterback Peyton Ramsey is gone. The former Hoosier transfer played a seminal role in Northwestern's Big Ten West title last year.
His replacement was always going to be Ryan Hilinski or Hunter Johnson.
Despite his innumerable weaknesses and problems while tenuously established at South Carolina, Hilinski was widely favored to win the job.
However, he suffered a significant injury that held him back and gave the advantage to fellow quarterback Hunter Johnson.
Many Northwestern insiders expressed surprise that Johnson was named the starter. One reason for this surprise is his abysmal performance in the 2019 season, which was the last season that he competed in.
In 2019, Johnson threw one touchdown and four interceptions while failing to complete half of his 432 attempted passes.
Northwestern's Other Offensive Losses
Johnson will lack meaningful help.
The 2020 receiving leader, Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, has departed, as has the 2019 receiving leader, Riley Lees.
Based on returning players, a continual weakness in the interior offensive line can't help any element of the offensive impetus.
Running the ball was tremendously difficult for Northwestern.
Hope was placed in Cam Porter, who impressed during the offseason. However, he suffered a season-ending injury.
A lack of playmakers will monotonize Northwestern's offensive attack. A lack of experience will further hinder the Wildcats especially in the season opener, which, as a trend that I will discuss later will show, is commonly a difficult time for recent Northwestern squads.
Michigan State's Defensive Match-Up
Match-ups are important to consider because they can create a kind of advantageous quality that isn't reflected in the current odds.
Northwestern's interior of its offensive line is decisive for its offensive chances because it is a weak spot, a vulnerability, that can really hold the entire Wildcat offense back.
Last year, the Spartans almost finished top-40 nationally in limiting opposing rush yards per attempt.
They finished this strongly in this category despite having to deal with a bevy of novel cogs in their machine: there were new starters and new coaches, all of whom were trying to familiarize themselves with each other in the context of COVID.
Experienced (Junior or higher) returning starters include Jacub Panasiuk and Drew Beesley at the defensive end positions plus Jacob Slade at defensive tackle.
Slade returns after playing in every game in 2019 and starting every one in 2020. Fellow defensive tackle Dashaun Mallory returns after almost being a team leader in sacks last year, although 320-pound monster Jalen Hunt is ahead of him on the depth chart. The former Iowa commit (Hunt) gained some experience last year, wreaking havoc against teams like Michigan.
Beesley looks to build off a successful 2020 season in which he achieved career highs in tackles and sacks. He was a PFF All-Big Ten third-teamer.
Panasiuk has amassed significant career-long numbers, which have motivated different authorities this year to name him to preseason All-Big Ten teams.
Valuable transfers from Big Ten schools who were highly-ranked recruits will support the linebacking corps.
Several experienced starters and contributors will grace Michigan State's 2-4-5 scheme. This starting experience gives the Spartan secondary an edge against a Wildcat receiving crew that misses three of its top four yardage leaders from last season.
Slow Start Trend
In addition to my lack of faith in favored Northwestern's offense, a key trend explains why you should bet the underdog in this game.
In 2019, 2018, and 2017 -- the last three normal seasons -- the Wildcats went 0-3 ATS or 1-2 ATS to start the season.
This squad is known for starting slowly. A slow start will be triggered this year at least by a bevy of new faces, including an inexperienced and shaky quarterback who will be throwing to a lackluster receiving crew, unsupported by the injured Cam Porter, and frustrated by the interior offensive line.
On defense, a lot of key players have departed, including top playmaker and tackling machine, linebacker Paddy Fisher. Fellow multi-year starter at linebacker, Blake Gallagher, formed a solid duo with Fisher. But he, too, is gone.
In the secondary, Northwestern lost a cornerback in Greg Newsome II who was drafted in the first round of the most recent NFL Draft.
Michigan State Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
While the Spartans rushed surprisingly well in their upset win over Northwestern, their rushing numbers were paltry overall as they failed to exceed 100 yards in almost every game.
A bottom-ranked rushing offense that desperately needs continuity in its protection unit will help keep the game from becoming too high-scoring.
Payton Thorne, who did nothing last year except against an anomalously awful Penn State defense, is competing with the grad transfer Anthony Russo from Temple, who needs to build chemistry with his wide receivers, for the starting job.
In addition to subpar producers, the Spartan offense will be held back by its usual discontinuity and general disadvantage in its protection unit.
Meanwhile, the defensive line forms the strength of Northwestern's defense with key returners at every position.
So, in addition to betting on Michigan State because its defense and a key trend make it a live dog, also take the "under."
Best Bet: Spartans +3 at -108 with BetOnline & Under 45 at -108 with Heritage
