Michigan State vs. Michigan: NCAAF Week 9 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, October 31 at noon ET (FOX) at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan
Michigan State Run Offense vs. Michigan Run Defense
In terms of run-blocking, Michigan State’s offensive line continues to be a national bottom-feeder.
Last year, the Spartans ranked 108th in averaging 3.6 YPC. In their opener against Rutgers, they mustered 1.3 YPC.
Rutgers featured a grad transfer from Michigan, Michael Dwumfour. As someone who lost playing time over the course of last season to youngsters like Chris Hinton, his performance against the Spartans helps inform our expectation of what his former teammates should do on Saturday.
Dwumfour was excellent. He accrued five tackles and was responsible for stopping the Spartans on a critical fourth-and-two run play. HIs presence up the middle helped secure Michigan State’s awful running numbers.
Michigan returns its interior defensive line from last season — All-Big Ten honoree third-teamer Carlo Kemp, Donovan Jeter, and Hinton.
They helped Michigan rank ninth last year in allowing 3.2 YPC. With their presence in the middle, they will perpetuate Michigan State’s struggle in run-blocking.
Michigan State Pass Attack vs. Michigan Pass Defense
On defense last year, the Wolverines regularly covered with ease against opponents who couldn’t run on them in the same sense as Michigan State couldn’t run on Dwumfour-led Rutgers.
There are rare exceptions like in the Illinois game where Michigan slept during the third quarter.
But covers against Indiana, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Iowa, and Rutgers show this point to be true. Those teams scored between 0 and 14 points in blowout losses.
This point is true because the Wolverines' secondary is difficult to test.
They own arguably the conference’s top combo at safety with All-Big Ten first-teamer (per PFF) Brad Hawkins and former golden recruit Daxton Hill in his second season.
Cornerback remains a position of strength for Michigan.
Entering the season, the position was a question mark. But Vincent Gray passed his test against one of the nation’s top wide receivers in Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman.
Bateman was targeted a lot, but was kept from accruing big plays as long as the game was in reach for Minnesota. In the first half, he only had 26 receiving yards. Overall, he wasn’t a consistent threat.
Currently ranking 80th in sack rate allowed, the Spartans will struggle with Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson who are the Big Ten’s two highest-graded returning edge rushers.
Paye receives more NFL draft hype especially given his 2.5-sack effort last year against Iowa in which he succeeded against NFL prospects Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs. Paye already has three tackles for loss this season.
Overall, Michigan had eight tackles for loss against Minnesota. I expect more of the same against Michigan State. Havoc plays have formed a strong point of emphasis for Don Brown’s defense and they can easily accrue more against the Spartans.
Besides Michigan State’s own weaknesses in pass protection, it suffers from Rocky Lombardi’s lack of pocket presence.
His lack of awareness contributed to his fumble total on Saturday. Partly to help his offensive line, Lombardi confined himself to a lot of short throws and intermediate passes. He tried to take what the defense could give him and to avoid holding on to the ball too long.
So he will be forced to try to produce points in the hardest way possible, grinding out drives in a one-dimensional offense.
Michigan Ground Game At Least Keeps Michigan State Honest
Michigan accrued 49 points against Minnesota even though it did not showcase the big play capacity promised by quarterback Joe Milton’s strong arm.
A big source of offense came on the ground — Big Blue accrued 256 yards on 31 carries for 8.6 YPC.
While the Wolverine offensive linemen lack the same experience as last year's, they continue the positive communication and the strong and physical play that their extreme size (they average 319.3 pounds) and development under top o-line coach Ed Warinner encourages.
Their fulfillment of assignments helps allow for big plays from returners Hassan Haskins and Zach Charbonnet.
As for the Spartans’ front seven, they lost essentially all of their top run-defenders.
Almost all of their top defensive linemen — three three-year starters, to be exact — are gone plus staple middle linebacker Joe Bachie.
To be fair, some of former head coach Mark Dantonio’s top remaining recruits remain from what once was an elite run defense.
Former four-star recruit Naquan Jones is an NFL Draft sleeper in the interior of the defensive line.
Antjuan Simmons emerged as a top linebacker en route to an All-Big Ten honorable mention.
In Bachie’s absence last year, Noah Harvey already emerged as a reliable starter.
So Michigan State’s front seven might not be so bad.
I mention all of this because the Spartans’ persisting adequacy in stopping the run can only encourage the Wolverines to exploit the Spartan defense through the air where they can score more and more quickly.
It helps the Wolverines that they can keep the Spartan defense honest with their ground game.
Michigan Pass Attack vs. Spartan Secondary
Michigan can stretch Michigan State’s defense vertically in order to ensure a productive output on the ground.
Big plays will also be common against a Spartan secondary that formed the weak spot in the defense last season as was most obvious when opposing offenses needed to make plays through the air.
Michigan State’s secondary allowed too much downfield and its problems will increase with top cover cornerback Josiah Scott and top pass rusher Kenny Willekes having departed for the NFL
The secondary lacks established starters, which is partly why the Spartans regularly field five cornerbacks as part of their 4-2-5 defensive scheme.
What is important to know is that the Wolverines can reliably accrue big plays even without the deep ball.
Ronnie Bell, for example, is PFF’s top returning YAC receiver after he amassed 9.9 YAC last season.
Speed characterizes the Wolverine wide receiver crew. Gilles Jackson, for example, ran a 4.43 40-yard dash in high school and used his speed last year to create chunk plays on jet sweeps against Michigan State.
Roman Wilson, Michigan’s second-leading receiver last week, was even faster.
Their speed will allow them to gain quick separation and it will make them difficult to contain after the catch.
The Verdict
Michigan will score en masse with a stacked and fast group of wide receivers, a more explosive running game behind physical run-blockers, a big-armed quarterback who can run and whose completion percentage against Minnesota allays any concerns over accuracy.
Havoc plays on defense will also help the Wolverine point total. People say: well, Michigan State won’t turn it over seven times again. But will the Spartans have a chance of covering if they only turn it over three times? Or even zero times?
Offensively, the Spartans will be one-dimensional, will face a strong pass rush, and an underrated secondary when they aren’t moving backwards.
There’s obviously bad blood between these schools. Michigan is going to want to come out, dominate, and run up the score early.
The Wolverines may use the second half to rest their starters as they have two ranked opponents to play after lowly Michigan State.
Rather than see Michigan State use especially its two playmakers at wide receiver in a monumental effort to cover the full-game spread against the Wolverine backups, I will simply take Michigan first-half.
Best Bet: Wolverines First-Half -14.5 at -110 with Bovada
Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, October 31 at noon ET (FOX) at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan
Michigan State Run Offense vs. Michigan Run Defense
In terms of run-blocking, Michigan State’s offensive line continues to be a national bottom-feeder.
Last year, the Spartans ranked 108th in averaging 3.6 YPC. In their opener against Rutgers, they mustered 1.3 YPC.
Rutgers featured a grad transfer from Michigan, Michael Dwumfour. As someone who lost playing time over the course of last season to youngsters like Chris Hinton, his performance against the Spartans helps inform our expectation of what his former teammates should do on Saturday.
Dwumfour was excellent. He accrued five tackles and was responsible for stopping the Spartans on a critical fourth-and-two run play. HIs presence up the middle helped secure Michigan State’s awful running numbers.
Michigan returns its interior defensive line from last season — All-Big Ten honoree third-teamer Carlo Kemp, Donovan Jeter, and Hinton.
They helped Michigan rank ninth last year in allowing 3.2 YPC. With their presence in the middle, they will perpetuate Michigan State’s struggle in run-blocking.
Michigan State Pass Attack vs. Michigan Pass Defense
On defense last year, the Wolverines regularly covered with ease against opponents who couldn’t run on them in the same sense as Michigan State couldn’t run on Dwumfour-led Rutgers.
There are rare exceptions like in the Illinois game where Michigan slept during the third quarter.
But covers against Indiana, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Iowa, and Rutgers show this point to be true. Those teams scored between 0 and 14 points in blowout losses.
This point is true because the Wolverines' secondary is difficult to test.
They own arguably the conference’s top combo at safety with All-Big Ten first-teamer (per PFF) Brad Hawkins and former golden recruit Daxton Hill in his second season.
Cornerback remains a position of strength for Michigan.
Entering the season, the position was a question mark. But Vincent Gray passed his test against one of the nation’s top wide receivers in Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman.
Bateman was targeted a lot, but was kept from accruing big plays as long as the game was in reach for Minnesota. In the first half, he only had 26 receiving yards. Overall, he wasn’t a consistent threat.
Currently ranking 80th in sack rate allowed, the Spartans will struggle with Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson who are the Big Ten’s two highest-graded returning edge rushers.
Paye receives more NFL draft hype especially given his 2.5-sack effort last year against Iowa in which he succeeded against NFL prospects Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs. Paye already has three tackles for loss this season.
Overall, Michigan had eight tackles for loss against Minnesota. I expect more of the same against Michigan State. Havoc plays have formed a strong point of emphasis for Don Brown’s defense and they can easily accrue more against the Spartans.
Besides Michigan State’s own weaknesses in pass protection, it suffers from Rocky Lombardi’s lack of pocket presence.
His lack of awareness contributed to his fumble total on Saturday. Partly to help his offensive line, Lombardi confined himself to a lot of short throws and intermediate passes. He tried to take what the defense could give him and to avoid holding on to the ball too long.
So he will be forced to try to produce points in the hardest way possible, grinding out drives in a one-dimensional offense.
Michigan Ground Game At Least Keeps Michigan State Honest
Michigan accrued 49 points against Minnesota even though it did not showcase the big play capacity promised by quarterback Joe Milton’s strong arm.
A big source of offense came on the ground — Big Blue accrued 256 yards on 31 carries for 8.6 YPC.
While the Wolverine offensive linemen lack the same experience as last year's, they continue the positive communication and the strong and physical play that their extreme size (they average 319.3 pounds) and development under top o-line coach Ed Warinner encourages.
Their fulfillment of assignments helps allow for big plays from returners Hassan Haskins and Zach Charbonnet.
As for the Spartans’ front seven, they lost essentially all of their top run-defenders.
Almost all of their top defensive linemen — three three-year starters, to be exact — are gone plus staple middle linebacker Joe Bachie.
To be fair, some of former head coach Mark Dantonio’s top remaining recruits remain from what once was an elite run defense.
Former four-star recruit Naquan Jones is an NFL Draft sleeper in the interior of the defensive line.
Antjuan Simmons emerged as a top linebacker en route to an All-Big Ten honorable mention.
In Bachie’s absence last year, Noah Harvey already emerged as a reliable starter.
So Michigan State’s front seven might not be so bad.
I mention all of this because the Spartans’ persisting adequacy in stopping the run can only encourage the Wolverines to exploit the Spartan defense through the air where they can score more and more quickly.
It helps the Wolverines that they can keep the Spartan defense honest with their ground game.
Michigan Pass Attack vs. Spartan Secondary
Michigan can stretch Michigan State’s defense vertically in order to ensure a productive output on the ground.
Big plays will also be common against a Spartan secondary that formed the weak spot in the defense last season as was most obvious when opposing offenses needed to make plays through the air.
Michigan State’s secondary allowed too much downfield and its problems will increase with top cover cornerback Josiah Scott and top pass rusher Kenny Willekes having departed for the NFL
The secondary lacks established starters, which is partly why the Spartans regularly field five cornerbacks as part of their 4-2-5 defensive scheme.
What is important to know is that the Wolverines can reliably accrue big plays even without the deep ball.
Ronnie Bell, for example, is PFF’s top returning YAC receiver after he amassed 9.9 YAC last season.
Speed characterizes the Wolverine wide receiver crew. Gilles Jackson, for example, ran a 4.43 40-yard dash in high school and used his speed last year to create chunk plays on jet sweeps against Michigan State.
Roman Wilson, Michigan’s second-leading receiver last week, was even faster.
Their speed will allow them to gain quick separation and it will make them difficult to contain after the catch.
The Verdict
Michigan will score en masse with a stacked and fast group of wide receivers, a more explosive running game behind physical run-blockers, a big-armed quarterback who can run and whose completion percentage against Minnesota allays any concerns over accuracy.
Havoc plays on defense will also help the Wolverine point total. People say: well, Michigan State won’t turn it over seven times again. But will the Spartans have a chance of covering if they only turn it over three times? Or even zero times?
Offensively, the Spartans will be one-dimensional, will face a strong pass rush, and an underrated secondary when they aren’t moving backwards.
There’s obviously bad blood between these schools. Michigan is going to want to come out, dominate, and run up the score early.
The Wolverines may use the second half to rest their starters as they have two ranked opponents to play after lowly Michigan State.
Rather than see Michigan State use especially its two playmakers at wide receiver in a monumental effort to cover the full-game spread against the Wolverine backups, I will simply take Michigan first-half.
Best Bet: Wolverines First-Half -14.5 at -110 with Bovada
